JUAN SOTO seems like a big deal

I don't really understand his contract status:

Signed thru 2019, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2022, Earliest Free Agent: 2025

If he's only signed through this season but not eligible for arbitration until 2022, what does that mean for 2020 and 2021?

i'm not sure about the technical/legal background but it's similar for other pre-arb players. soto is definitely under team control through 2022

by "similar" i mean you'll see the same kind of contract status for other pre-arb players

Thanks. Baseball Reference should make that clearer...if they control him until 2022, why not just say "signed through 2021." There's almost an implication of the old reserve-clause system there, where the Nationals can just renew him for whatever they want in 2020/21.

hey clemenza, just noticed that fangraphs has updated their contract summary pages for each team. i don't know what you usually refer to for that kind of information, but to me this is pretty much the easiest and simplest way to get it. here's the page for the nats:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

and here's more info: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/introducing-rosterresource-payroll-pages/

One of the things that makes Juan Soto special is his mature approach at the plate. The Nationals outfielder may not be able to legally buy alcohol in the United States, but he doesn’t just have the discipline of a seasoned vet, he has the discipline of Joey Votto in his prime. A 15 percent walk rate would be good for anyone, but it’s incredible for someone who is younger than OK Computer.

His low chase rate is the primary driver of his ability to draw a walk, but Soto has another strategy he employs. When the count reaches two strikes, Soto crouches down lower to shrink his strike zone.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/9/4/20848679/juan-soto-washington-nationals-two-strike-crouch-robot-umps

Kinda faded a bit over the last 2 weeks of the season, but can now add "clutch postseason heroics" to his CV.

Juan Soto is the second youngest player in postseason history to have a WPA over .500 in a game.

The youngest, Miguel Cabrera, did it in Game 4 of the 2003 NLDS, a series-clinching game but not an elimination one https://t.co/XL00s8G42k pic.twitter.com/kPjbewAa9k

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 2, 2019

<3

https://sports.theonion.com/juan-soto-sheepishly-asks-group-of-nationals-fans-enter-1838887733

so did Miggy or Cobb homer as a WS cleanup hitter under 21?

Youngest to hit a World Series home run: Andruw Jones, 19 years, 180 days; Miguel Cabrera, 20 years, 187 days; Mickey Mantle, 20 years, 352 days; Juan Soto, 20 years, 362 days.

Soto & Jones are the only <20 year olds to hit a HR in their WS debut.

Nats Dominican academy pic.twitter.com/vLIoQLrWF5

— johnny (@dipuglia) October 23, 2019

Happy birthday, Juan Soto!

We will adjust our World Series content accordingly. pic.twitter.com/jAICJ0t14q

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 25, 2019

Watching Juan Soto lash a beautiful oppo homer this afternoon is as good a reason as any to gaze in wonder yet again at his career XBH spray chart. pic.twitter.com/g3RJlP7H6D

— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) February 25, 2020

cardinals broadcast made sure to keep track of how long his home run trot was (25.5 seconds)

iirc last week when someone asked him what his goals for spring training were, he said 'to make the team'

otm

i think he will probably make the team

*crosses fingers*

positive for COVID

After being away from the team for ten days due to a positive COVID-19 test, Juan Soto returned to the Nationals on Saturday and joined the team for a workout at Nats Park. “For me, in my mind, I think it was a [false] positive,” he said. “I’ve been working on it. I tested a bunch of times negative. Following the rules, being in the right spot. I think that’s why I think it’s a [false] positive because I’ve been following the rules. I’ve been really serious with this. It’s out there. But, for me, they can look at me however they want. I’m going to be the same guy.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/juan-soto-rejoins-nationals-nationals-park

Activated from the IL but not in the starting lineup...?

Maybe need a Fernando Tatis Jr. thread to parallel this one (born about two months later).

Go for it, lots of lesser players have dedicated threads.

I'm the guy who jumped the gun on Carlos Correa.

Jumping the Gun: the Carlos Correa Thread

Or you could do a poll like TROUT V. HARPER but throw in Acuña as another option?

I mean...

FREE HUNTER PENCE!!!

yeah but hunter pence is awesome, love that guy.

jose martinez is an honorary hunter pence, to me

Fernando Tatis Jr. is Bringing Joy Back to Baseball

i won't regret this

also considered a "how many seasons will it take for FTJr to surpass james shields in WAR" poll but that just seems mean

2020 OPS
https://i.imgur.com/j2FmMMG.jpg

this year he's no Mike Yastrzemski

nor any other year I hope.

Or you could do a poll like TROUT V. HARPER but throw in Acuña as another option?

And maybe Bo Bichette too. (Okay, I'm cherry-picking after his big night.)

In-depth analysis of his season to date:

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-best-all-around-hitter-2020

"Tatis and Soto aren't just the best young stars in Major League Baseball. They're the best players."

Way too early, and not a real season anyway, but for what it's worth, Baseball Reference has Betts as the best player in baseball right now.

Top of the 3rd: Nats down 0-4 to the Red Sox.

Trea Turner hits a lead off double.

Soto is faced with a radical shift, and surprisingly decides to bunt down the 1B line with Turner running. The pitcher has trouble fielding it, throws it over the 1B's head, Turner scores, Soto takes 2nd on the throw home. Sets up a 3-run response that puts the Nats back into the game.

Highest SLG since 2004 (Bonds) was Yelich last year: .671
Soto is at .800

Soto 2019: 132 strikeouts vs 34 homers
Soto 2020: 13 strikeouts vs 11 homers

From a SI piece: "Among those with at least 1,000 plate appearances prior to their age-22 season, Soto's career OPS through his age-21 season ranks fourth, behind only Ted Williams (1.041), Jimmie Foxx (1.015) and Mel Ott (.986)."

(Which is .967...mlb.com piece, I mean.)

They pulled Soto after going 1-1 today--some things never change--so it looks like he'll win the slash TC. Younger than when Williams did it in '41, so I'm guessing he's the youngest ever.

With a 60-game asterisk

For sure--on top of which, he only played in 75% of his team's games. Still, looking at the list of people who've done this post-1900, it's a pretty imposing group of players. (Sherry Magee and Fred Lynn were about the worst, and they were pretty damn good.)

http://cliffcorcoran.com/2012/09/25/slash-stat-triple-crown-winners/

Juan Soto leading off innings in 2020:
13-for-25
Four doubles
Four homers.
Eight walks.
One hit by pitch.
One strikeout.
For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 14, 2020

Extending Juan Soto… All the Way to Cooperstown

https://i.redd.it/o75iy76dgum61.jpg

Do ZIPS projections usually spit out such metronomic consistency? Those totals are possible--though they would probably make him one of the 10 best hitters ever; rather optimistic--but no fluctuations for injury, off-year, pitcher's years, pandemics, etc. seems highly unlikely.

well, yes. it's a projection, not a forecast -- it's not like they can predict soto will blow out his knee and miss the 2028 season. and of course it's somewhat fantastical, but i wouldn't say jaffe is prone to hyperbole.

the biggest caveat, as mentioned in the article, is that he becomes unplayable in the outfield

I’m surprised he isn’t that good a fielder tbh.
I wonder how often fielding improves over time. I would think not often, but maybe with a guy that young there’s a better chance?

In a subpar year, headed for 7.0 WAR (and not because of his fielding prowess) and a 150 OPS+.

Wasn't there a thread that compared VGJr, FTJr and Soto?

At any rate, as posted by u/Juan_Soto_Stats (not me):

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1m0qqkk/juan_soto_is_only_26_how_are_his_career_numbers/

ah it was our northern neighbo(u)r Clemenza:

I compared Tatis/Soto/Acuna for a Facebook post (pro-rated for 162 games):

Tatis: 44 HR, 31 SB, .301/.374/.582, 154 OPS+, 7.9 WAR
Soto: 36 HR, 12 SB, .295/.415/.557, 151 OPS+, 5.0 WAR
Acuna: 42 HR, 32 SB, .281/.371/.538 133 OPS+, 6.3 WAR

I was trying to think of three players this good at the same age (22/23--the range between Tatis and Acuna is a year and 15 days). I thought of Griffey/Thomas/Bonds, but Bonds was four or five years older than them; if you put aside what we know now, Griffey/Thomas/Gonzalez might be comparable. It's possible you'd have to go back to Mays/Aaron/Mantle, although Aaron was three years younger than the other two.

― clemenza, Friday, February 19, 2021 3:37 AM (four years ago)

He's only played 75 games, but Bo Bichette--between Soto and Acuna in age--actually falls more or less within the same range:

Bichette: 35 HR, 17 SB, .307/.347/.549, 137 OPS+, 6.9 WAR

― clemenza, Friday, February 19, 2021 4:39 AM (four years ago)

4 years later check-in:

Soto: .283/.418/.530 - 39.3 fWAR/40.3 bWAR - 158 WRC+/160 OPS+
AcunaJr: .291/.382/.528 - 30.6 fWAR/28.0 bWAR - 143 WRC+/141 OPS+
TatisJr: .278/.353/.521 - 24.5 fWAR/25.6 bWAR - 137 WRC+/138 OPS+
VladJr: .287/.365/.494 - 18.7 fWAR/24.1 bWAR - 136 WRC+/136 OPS+
BBichJr: .289/.331/.463 - 18.0 fWAR/19.1 bWAR - 118 WRC+/118 OPS+

was genuinely surprised at Bichette tbh, either that or fangraphs really doesn't love VladJr (does fangraphs incorporate more accurate park factors into their modeling?)

could be defence. there seems to be some difference of opinions whether Vlad is a great defender or very mediocre.

I'm actually amazed that Vlad is still there with Tatis Jr.--the latter to me is a much more dangerous hitter. (But I guess numbers don't lie.)

Now that I look at it, Tatis's last three seasons are markedly inferior to his first three.

He seemed to play better with the ringworms.

Performance enhancing infection

There is a nice symmetry to his BRef career box: three HOF seasons at the top, three good-everyday-player (and sometimes AS) seasons at the bottom, with this strange "Did not play - injury and PED suspension" row smack in the middle...