Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

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The original thread started Feb. 1, 2017, about a week after Trump's inauguration. It has about 15,000 posts. Given the stakes we're likely to rack up another 15,000 before the convention. It's time for a new beginning.

No poll for this one.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 19:58 (three weeks ago) link

Since there's no poll, here's what we're dealing with:

Bennet
Biden
Bloomberg
Booker
Buttigieg
Delaney
Gabbard
Klobuchar
Patrick
Sanders
Steyer
Warren
Williamson
Yang

☮️ (peace, man), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:06 (three weeks ago) link

According to fivethirtyeight.com, the latest national polls show:

Biden27.8%
Sanders17.8%
Warren14.9%
Buttigieg7.5%
Bloomberg4.8%
Yang3.5%
Klobuchar3.4%
Booker2.3%
Steyer1.8%
Gabbard 1.7%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:07 (three weeks ago) link

didn't know he'd hopped into the race but I'm rooting for Rob Delaney

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:07 (three weeks ago) link

biden is going to walk this.

the trump-biden debates will happen: the banter-heuristic has crossed the atlantic

xmas respecter (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:08 (three weeks ago) link

Polling Iowa according to fivethirtyeight.com:

Biden 19.6%
Buttigieg 19.1%
Sanders 18.3%
Warren 13.9%
Klobuchar 6.6%
Steyer 3.6%
Yang 3.0%
Booker 2.9%
Gabbard 2.1%
Bloomberg 1.9%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:09 (three weeks ago) link

New Hampshire:

Sanders 18.3%
Biden 18.2%
Buttigieg 14.8%
Warren 14.4%
Gabbard 4.8%
Klobuchar 4.2%
Yang 4.1%
Steyer 3.5%
Bloomberg 3.2%
Booker 2.3%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:11 (three weeks ago) link

The thing that makes me concerned about Sanders' chances is that Biden probably gets most of the Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Booker, and Steyer support once they drop out, whereas I think there's a significant % of Warren's support that won't go to Sanders.

I'd have to say from right now it looks like Biden will get the nom. Some early Sanders primary victories could shift things a little, and the polling in the early states is close enough that that could happen.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:11 (three weeks ago) link

dude, we were like fifteen minutes away from 15k, how could u lock?

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:12 (three weeks ago) link

South Carolina:

Biden 38.3%
Sanders 13.9%
Warren 10.0%
Steyer 5.9%
Buttigieg 5.2%
Bloomberg 3.8%
Booker 3.4%
Klobuchar 2.7%
Yang 2.7%
Gabbard 1.9%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:13 (three weeks ago) link

gotta say I really thought Biden's numbers would have tailed off a lot more by now

frogbs, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:14 (three weeks ago) link

lots can still happen folks, a lot of people (the sane ones) aren't even paying any attention till there's like two weeks to go

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:15 (three weeks ago) link

yeah I mean

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (three weeks ago) link

Biden will not be nominated, bcz i would start smoking crack

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (three weeks ago) link

Bernie raises $35m, $10m more than ex-Mayor Pete without a wine cave https://t.co/4c7VQCJLSH via @WSJ

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) January 2, 2020

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (three weeks ago) link

fifteen minutes away from 15k

round numbers are strangely seductive, but seldom meaningful. btw, I didn't lock the old one, but it's always good to have a link to the previous thread, somewhere near the top of the new one.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:18 (three weeks ago) link

whereas I think there's a significant % of Warren's support that won't go to Sanders

imo nah

american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:19 (three weeks ago) link

Where's the new voter registration forms?

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:19 (three weeks ago) link

i think most of the non-progressive warren voters have already left for buttigieg tbh

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:21 (three weeks ago) link

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:21 (three weeks ago) link

If Warren drops out before the primary hits my state, it'll be Bernie.

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:25 (three weeks ago) link

at some point I became a Sanders voter, because, I figured, why fuck around?

Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:25 (three weeks ago) link

basically

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:26 (three weeks ago) link

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:21 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

whats important is who wins delegates and by how much. iirc (and plz correct me if im wrong bc i cant remember where i saw this) you need to win at least 15% of a state's votes to be awarded a portion of the state delegation. i assume buttigieg can clear that in IA and NH, but after that?

so its (probably) a three-way race between biden, sanders, and warren. of the candidates who are likely to actually win delegates, the sanders+warren contingent could be larger than the biden delegation.

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:34 (three weeks ago) link

the thing that gives me hope is that A) Sanders is raising a ton of cash and B) he's way more persuasive and less error-prone than Biden so yeah once people actually do start paying attention I can see Bernie gaining more ground

frogbs, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:36 (three weeks ago) link

on the occasions I have talked to ppl who are less psychotically aware of The Discourse, when I bring up Sanders, ppl tend to assume he's way behind in polling. I'll be curious to see whether the increasing acknowledgements in the press that this is not the case, nothing his donation figures etc will have an effect.

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:39 (three weeks ago) link

February 3, 2020: Iowa caucuses
February 11, 2020: New Hampshire primary
February 22, 2020: Nevada Democratic caucuses
February 29, 2020: South Carolina Democratic primary

Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:39 (three weeks ago) link

biden is going to walk this

If so, and he does look more likely than anyone else atm, then we must be prepared for a hard-fought election pitting Donald Trump against Hunter Biden, HRC, Obama, and Pelosi, which will resolve nothing, even if Joe Biden wins it. The Republicans in Congress would breathe a short sigh of relief, then go back to full obstruction mode.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:40 (three weeks ago) link

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_presidential_nomination,_2020

there's finances from last quarter below. jesus, buttigieg has raised a lot of money. biden is 5th in cash on hand and individual contributions.

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:41 (three weeks ago) link

buttigieg has raised a lot of money, but he still has serious black voter credibility problems and Super Tuesday distributes a lot of delegates from the south.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:44 (three weeks ago) link

February will definitely reset the table.

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:46 (three weeks ago) link

I still hate that a state that has fewer people living in it than my county, and is 94% white, gets such a disproportionate say in this process. Fuck a New Hampshire.

Pete Swine Cave (Eliza D.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:48 (three weeks ago) link

can we shut this thread until February?

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:49 (three weeks ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:52 (three weeks ago) link

not really, but what if that happened in january? we sure would be glad to have this thread then!!

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:53 (three weeks ago) link

this all is finally, actually happening huh

global tetrahedron, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:53 (three weeks ago) link

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

Briania, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (three weeks ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (three weeks ago) link

Karl was "joking"

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (three weeks ago) link

it was one of those learning jokes that makes you appreciate the existence of the thread you're in. ...right?

*ducks*

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:58 (three weeks ago) link

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

― Briania, Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:55 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i live in south tx, i have seen maybe two biden stickers. lots of bernie, couple pete, lots of beto, few warren, couple yang

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:59 (three weeks ago) link

where beto voters break in tx is gonna be interesting/determining. only one post-beto poll in tx and it broke heavily for biden. i assume tx castro voters are going warren or sanders, but thats still a small number

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:02 (three weeks ago) link

is there any study saying "signage = traction" or is it just something we do

she carries a torch. two torches, actually (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (three weeks ago) link

house with Cory Booker in several windows

^^Underrated Giallo.

a bevy of supermodels, musicians and Lena Dunham (C. Grisso/McCain), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (three weeks ago) link

its a thing we do

xp

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (three weeks ago) link

Why because it's intersting. All it means on a local level is that Biden's people haven't got their signs out yet. The Abby Finkenauer endorsement is more significant.

Briania, Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:17 (three weeks ago) link

Marianne Williamson, who has been campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination on a message of love and has been urging voters to “join the evolution,” has laid off her entire staff in New Hampshire and nationally, sources close to the campaign confirmed to WMUR on Thursday.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:19 (three weeks ago) link

i thought she dropped out weeks ago

just proves that love is worthless

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:23 (three weeks ago) link

Williamson raised her national profile for her business, which is basically herself talking or writing books, so she has already met her most basic objective in running.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:32 (three weeks ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, January 2, 2020 3:55 PM (forty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Chapo Policy Insitute, Left Dakota

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:46 (three weeks ago) link

I feel him. Pretending to care about sports can be a lot of work.

With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Monday, 27 January 2020 04:04 (two days ago) link

the classic act we all know and love of dribbling a basketball on grass

Clay, Monday, 27 January 2020 04:05 (two days ago) link

which goper gaffed on hoops reference several years ago? Cruz?

in a mellow, balmy way (Hunt3r), Monday, 27 January 2020 04:07 (two days ago) link

the FIELD?

― El Tomboto, Sunday, January 26, 2020 10:59 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Reminded me of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNx_gU57gQ4

Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:21 (two days ago) link

The dumb thing is that he could have just said "I'm not a big sports guy; I know Kobe's name but I can't even tell you what sport he played. He meant a lot to so many, his life impacted mine and I don't know a football from a soccer ball" and everyone would have been like "finally, you are not being a robot"

totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:27 (two days ago) link

but he would have deprived us this classic "sportsball" goof 'em up. you love to see it.

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:28 (two days ago) link

I keep imagining Cruz watching this on TV and yelling "TELL THEM ABOUT THE RINGS" in his living room

totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:30 (two days ago) link

"Admittedly, my confusion may arise from the fact that in a number of languages I speak and even in English dialects outside North America, a football IS a soccer ball." 2xp

With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:31 (two days ago) link

Every time I see Buttigieg for a second I think he's Jimmy Fallon

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:33 (two days ago) link

I just had a vision of Buttigieg Slow Jamming the News and cranked up the meter a little on my ambient desire for death

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 14:34 (two days ago) link

lol whomst amongst us

Appleman Appears: 20/2/2020. Whose Cider You On? (Bananaman Begins), Monday, 27 January 2020 15:01 (two days ago) link

So there was a NYT article about online bullying by Bernie supporters, and I keep thinking about this tweet I saw in response:

"The thing I don't understand is why would we want to go up against Trump with someone who doesn't have an online army?"

A perfect example of how fan culture has invaded politics, as Amanda Hess has written.

jaymc, Monday, 27 January 2020 15:57 (two days ago) link

The Bruenig tweet they were responding to also provides some examples of the grossness/nastiness of supporters and opponents of all kinds of candidates.

With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:32 (two days ago) link

not sure where to put this but jesus christ

The members of the team around Bernie Sanders "are about to experience what happens when a militia faces off in on an open field against a ruthless modern army armed with cluster bombs and napalm," warns @DavidFrum. "They will be shredded and torched." https://t.co/jNEfppdtrk

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) January 27, 2020

Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:53 (two days ago) link

Kinda like the embattled farmers in Concord. And you all remember how that went.

Okay, you're an ambulance (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:54 (two days ago) link

willing to bet an atlantic editor had to roll their eyes and remove at least two "literally"s from the copy

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:54 (two days ago) link

the atlantic fucking sucks and harbors transphobes

american bradass (BradNelson), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:55 (two days ago) link

A ragtag militia of copyeditors facing a well-equipped modern army of highly skilled metaphors

metaphors be with you

Okay, you're an ambulance (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:55 (two days ago) link

there's been a whole ream of "bernie is destined to lose" pieces published today and yesterday, not sure why, weird coincidence

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:57 (two days ago) link

david fucking frum

expert on modern military conditions, such as a militia facing off in on an open field against a ruthless modern army. he sounds exactly like every american dipshit who thought the last half dozen wars would be easy

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Monday, 27 January 2020 16:59 (two days ago) link

one of the worst canadians

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:00 (two days ago) link

frum is canadian?

i expect this nonsense from americans, but canadians should really know better imo

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:01 (two days ago) link

born in toronto, dual citizen I think

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:02 (two days ago) link

In 1980, Sanders joined a left-wing party whose presidential candidate condemned “anti-Iranian hysteria around the U.S. hostages” being held at the U.S. embassy in Tehran, suggesting “that many of them are simply spies … or people assigned to protect the spies,” as Ronald Radosh reported in The Daily Beast. Imagine what Trump and his team will do with that.

Yay. A new Jeremiah Wright

Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:04 (two days ago) link

The Mornine Joe hens clucked this morning about Bloomberg replacing Biden as The Moderate Choice should the latter fade in Iowa and New Hampshire. I thought, "Michael who?"

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:10 (two days ago) link

Son of a famous Canadian journalist and brother of a Canadian Senator, lived in Canada until university, moved back as an adult and edited a major Canadian literary magazine, still a foreign national when he was appointed to the White House. We send our best, ugh.xps

With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Monday, 27 January 2020 17:12 (two days ago) link

there's been a whole ream of "bernie is destined to lose" pieces published today and yesterday, not sure why, weird coincidence

pundits run in herds

A is for (Aimless), Monday, 27 January 2020 18:01 (two days ago) link

Hold up. A US embassy has spies in it?

Okay, you're an ambulance (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 27 January 2020 18:03 (two days ago) link

Re-litigating the Carter Administration seems like a wonderful idea to while away the time as we wait for the Iowans to make their momentous announcement about who is electable.

A is for (Aimless), Monday, 27 January 2020 18:10 (two days ago) link

i expect this nonsense from americans, but canadians should really know better imo

― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Monday, January 27, 2020 12:01 PM (one hour ago)

grim, grim lol

rob, Monday, 27 January 2020 18:14 (two days ago) link

if david frum is good at one thing, it's accurately predicting who will win a war between a guerilla militia and a ruthless modern army

symsymsym, Monday, 27 January 2020 18:37 (two days ago) link

thank fuck the long-predicted Biden erosion has finally, blessedly, (apparently) hit - changes since December

#National @EchelonInsights Poll (1/20-23):
Biden 26%
Sanders 23%
Bloomberg 13%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 3%

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 27, 2020

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:21 (two days ago) link

sorry meant to say that's -11 Biden, +9 Sanders over that period for their polling

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:22 (two days ago) link

if the people trying to make klobuchar happen would just try 7 to 9 times harder

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:27 (two days ago) link

bloomberg # would be more worrisome to me if he weren't suicidally skipping the early states

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:28 (two days ago) link

worrying that the 4 centrists are still pulling in 49% collectively

Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:41 (two days ago) link

unless three of them drop out in the near future, that doesn't concern me too much

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Monday, 27 January 2020 19:43 (two days ago) link

If there is “Stop X” movement, put your money on X.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) January 25, 2020

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 28 January 2020 01:16 (yesterday) link

This is how @BernieSanders operates. He sends disrupters to @JoeBiden events and now he sends a pack of gypsies to his campaign office to cause a scene.

Is this really what you want, Democrats? https://t.co/XlG0p5KWPE

— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) January 28, 2020

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Tuesday, 28 January 2020 07:59 (yesterday) link

Back to the gypsy that I was
To the gypsy that I was

buzza, Tuesday, 28 January 2020 08:09 (yesterday) link

Pobrecito!

In early December, more than 100 members of Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign staff gathered at the South Bend City Church a mile from headquarters for a mandatory half-day retreat about diversity and inclusion. Less than two months remained before the start of voting, a time when most campaigns are focused full-time on politics.

Buttigieg advisers say the retreat was part of an ongoing effort to foster a progressive culture that empowered employees of color. For some of these staff members, however, the workplace itself was a problem, and working for a candidate with so little support from black and Hispanic voters had become demoralizing.

In interviews, current and former staff members of color said they believed that senior Buttigieg officials didn’t listen to their concerns and ideas about the campaign. One said there was a daily “emotional weight” on people of color who felt they were employed in order to help the campaign meet its ambitious diversity targets. Some Hispanic employees felt disrespected when managers asked them to translate text, even if they didn’t speak Spanish.

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 28 January 2020 12:31 (yesterday) link

Who is Chris D. Jackson, aside from a dick?

totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Tuesday, 28 January 2020 14:17 (yesterday) link

Like, that this shit has 2,000 likes

Hillary Clinton https://t.co/M5VFcfS9p1

— Brandy Jensen (@BrandyLJensen) January 29, 2020

is testament to the "internet of beefs" theory

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2020/01/16/the-internet-of-beefs/

No one can seriously believe for a second that Hillary Clinton would support Donald Trump over nominee Sanders, or that Sanders would support Donald Trump over nominee Joe Biden. It's just a huge amount of bullshit people say without believing it in order to elicit "hyuk hyuk you showed 'em" from people on their "side." Fuck it. Sorry.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 29 January 2020 03:14 (two hours ago) link

Not even Morbs would say so.

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 29 January 2020 03:18 (two hours ago) link

No, he’d just post the Trump wedding photo again. And again. And again...

shared unit of analysis (unperson), Wednesday, 29 January 2020 04:20 (one hour ago) link

It's just a huge amount of bullshit people say without believing it

Like... a joke?

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, 29 January 2020 05:04 (one hour ago) link

people repeat bullshit without even knowing what it means. and other people believe it

Dan S, Wednesday, 29 January 2020 05:09 (fifty-six minutes ago) link

Plus she's had more friendly dinners with Trump than Sanders so I mean...

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, 29 January 2020 05:16 (forty-nine minutes ago) link


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