Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

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The original thread started Feb. 1, 2017, about a week after Trump's inauguration. It has about 15,000 posts. Given the stakes we're likely to rack up another 15,000 before the convention. It's time for a new beginning.

No poll for this one.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 19:58 (seven months ago) link

Since there's no poll, here's what we're dealing with:

Bennet
Biden
Bloomberg
Booker
Buttigieg
Delaney
Gabbard
Klobuchar
Patrick
Sanders
Steyer
Warren
Williamson
Yang

☮️ (peace, man), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:06 (seven months ago) link

According to fivethirtyeight.com, the latest national polls show:

Biden27.8%
Sanders17.8%
Warren14.9%
Buttigieg7.5%
Bloomberg4.8%
Yang3.5%
Klobuchar3.4%
Booker2.3%
Steyer1.8%
Gabbard 1.7%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:07 (seven months ago) link

didn't know he'd hopped into the race but I'm rooting for Rob Delaney

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:07 (seven months ago) link

biden is going to walk this.

the trump-biden debates will happen: the banter-heuristic has crossed the atlantic

xmas respecter (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:08 (seven months ago) link

Polling Iowa according to fivethirtyeight.com:

Biden 19.6%
Buttigieg 19.1%
Sanders 18.3%
Warren 13.9%
Klobuchar 6.6%
Steyer 3.6%
Yang 3.0%
Booker 2.9%
Gabbard 2.1%
Bloomberg 1.9%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:09 (seven months ago) link

New Hampshire:

Sanders 18.3%
Biden 18.2%
Buttigieg 14.8%
Warren 14.4%
Gabbard 4.8%
Klobuchar 4.2%
Yang 4.1%
Steyer 3.5%
Bloomberg 3.2%
Booker 2.3%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:11 (seven months ago) link

The thing that makes me concerned about Sanders' chances is that Biden probably gets most of the Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Booker, and Steyer support once they drop out, whereas I think there's a significant % of Warren's support that won't go to Sanders.

I'd have to say from right now it looks like Biden will get the nom. Some early Sanders primary victories could shift things a little, and the polling in the early states is close enough that that could happen.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:11 (seven months ago) link

dude, we were like fifteen minutes away from 15k, how could u lock?

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:12 (seven months ago) link

South Carolina:

Biden 38.3%
Sanders 13.9%
Warren 10.0%
Steyer 5.9%
Buttigieg 5.2%
Bloomberg 3.8%
Booker 3.4%
Klobuchar 2.7%
Yang 2.7%
Gabbard 1.9%

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:13 (seven months ago) link

gotta say I really thought Biden's numbers would have tailed off a lot more by now

frogbs, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:14 (seven months ago) link

lots can still happen folks, a lot of people (the sane ones) aren't even paying any attention till there's like two weeks to go

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:15 (seven months ago) link

yeah I mean

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (seven months ago) link

Biden will not be nominated, bcz i would start smoking crack

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (seven months ago) link

Bernie raises $35m, $10m more than ex-Mayor Pete without a wine cave https://t.co/4c7VQCJLSH via @WSJ

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) January 2, 2020

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:16 (seven months ago) link

fifteen minutes away from 15k

round numbers are strangely seductive, but seldom meaningful. btw, I didn't lock the old one, but it's always good to have a link to the previous thread, somewhere near the top of the new one.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:18 (seven months ago) link

whereas I think there's a significant % of Warren's support that won't go to Sanders

imo nah

american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:19 (seven months ago) link

Where's the new voter registration forms?

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:19 (seven months ago) link

i think most of the non-progressive warren voters have already left for buttigieg tbh

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:21 (seven months ago) link

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:21 (seven months ago) link

If Warren drops out before the primary hits my state, it'll be Bernie.

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:25 (seven months ago) link

at some point I became a Sanders voter, because, I figured, why fuck around?

Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:25 (seven months ago) link

basically

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:26 (seven months ago) link

even if he gets 100% of Warren's votes (or vice versa) that gives you about 32% of the democratic vote. Biden needs to slip for either of them to have a chance. I find it odd that he hasn't already, but the fact is, he hasn't.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:21 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

whats important is who wins delegates and by how much. iirc (and plz correct me if im wrong bc i cant remember where i saw this) you need to win at least 15% of a state's votes to be awarded a portion of the state delegation. i assume buttigieg can clear that in IA and NH, but after that?

so its (probably) a three-way race between biden, sanders, and warren. of the candidates who are likely to actually win delegates, the sanders+warren contingent could be larger than the biden delegation.

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:34 (seven months ago) link

the thing that gives me hope is that A) Sanders is raising a ton of cash and B) he's way more persuasive and less error-prone than Biden so yeah once people actually do start paying attention I can see Bernie gaining more ground

frogbs, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:36 (seven months ago) link

on the occasions I have talked to ppl who are less psychotically aware of The Discourse, when I bring up Sanders, ppl tend to assume he's way behind in polling. I'll be curious to see whether the increasing acknowledgements in the press that this is not the case, nothing his donation figures etc will have an effect.

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:39 (seven months ago) link

February 3, 2020: Iowa caucuses
February 11, 2020: New Hampshire primary
February 22, 2020: Nevada Democratic caucuses
February 29, 2020: South Carolina Democratic primary

Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:39 (seven months ago) link

biden is going to walk this

If so, and he does look more likely than anyone else atm, then we must be prepared for a hard-fought election pitting Donald Trump against Hunter Biden, HRC, Obama, and Pelosi, which will resolve nothing, even if Joe Biden wins it. The Republicans in Congress would breathe a short sigh of relief, then go back to full obstruction mode.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:40 (seven months ago) link

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_presidential_nomination,_2020

there's finances from last quarter below. jesus, buttigieg has raised a lot of money. biden is 5th in cash on hand and individual contributions.

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:41 (seven months ago) link

buttigieg has raised a lot of money, but he still has serious black voter credibility problems and Super Tuesday distributes a lot of delegates from the south.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:44 (seven months ago) link

February will definitely reset the table.

Lactose Shaolin Wanker (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:46 (seven months ago) link

I still hate that a state that has fewer people living in it than my county, and is 94% white, gets such a disproportionate say in this process. Fuck a New Hampshire.

Pete Swine Cave (Eliza D.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:48 (seven months ago) link

can we shut this thread until February?

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:49 (seven months ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:52 (seven months ago) link

not really, but what if that happened in january? we sure would be glad to have this thread then!!

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:53 (seven months ago) link

this all is finally, actually happening huh

global tetrahedron, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:53 (seven months ago) link

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

Briania, Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (seven months ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (seven months ago) link

Karl was "joking"

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:55 (seven months ago) link

it was one of those learning jokes that makes you appreciate the existence of the thread you're in. ...right?

*ducks*

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:58 (seven months ago) link

Iowa yard sign report: I've yet to see ANY Biden signage in my county, a Clinton/Obama labor stronghold with substantial minority populations. Lots of Pete and Bernie, at least some for all the rest. There's a giant "TULSI" display in the neighborhood, one house with Cory Booker in several windows, and a yard divided between "LIZ" and "AMY." It's a quirky electorate.

― Briania, Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:55 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i live in south tx, i have seen maybe two biden stickers. lots of bernie, couple pete, lots of beto, few warren, couple yang

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 20:59 (seven months ago) link

where beto voters break in tx is gonna be interesting/determining. only one post-beto poll in tx and it broke heavily for biden. i assume tx castro voters are going warren or sanders, but thats still a small number

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:02 (seven months ago) link

is there any study saying "signage = traction" or is it just something we do

she carries a torch. two torches, actually (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (seven months ago) link

house with Cory Booker in several windows

^^Underrated Giallo.

a bevy of supermodels, musicians and Lena Dunham (C. Grisso/McCain), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (seven months ago) link

its a thing we do

xp

peloton for the painfully alone (m bison), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:10 (seven months ago) link

Why because it's intersting. All it means on a local level is that Biden's people haven't got their signs out yet. The Abby Finkenauer endorsement is more significant.

Briania, Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:17 (seven months ago) link

Marianne Williamson, who has been campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination on a message of love and has been urging voters to “join the evolution,” has laid off her entire staff in New Hampshire and nationally, sources close to the campaign confirmed to WMUR on Thursday.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:19 (seven months ago) link

i thought she dropped out weeks ago

just proves that love is worthless

But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:23 (seven months ago) link

Williamson raised her national profile for her business, which is basically herself talking or writing books, so she has already met her most basic objective in running.

A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:32 (seven months ago) link

new poll out:

sanders: 28%
warren: 25%
pete: 14%
biden: 12%

which? And of what state?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, January 2, 2020 3:55 PM (forty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Chapo Policy Insitute, Left Dakota

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 January 2020 21:46 (seven months ago) link

at a certain point of criticism it would be used against anyone who endorsed him/has ever met with him/said something nice about him that one time

oh no, how will Marianne Williamson ever recover?!

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:19 (five months ago) link

Why people vote this and that way elides that people can be wrong about why they vote and it's not racist/sexist/etc. to say they're wrong and making a bad choice. We all agree that many of the people who voted for Trump - like the vaunted Obama-to-Trump pipeline - were wrong for this reason or that.

christ this sanctimonious horseshit. People may be stupid - and you and I are free to think so - but their votes are *their* votes, they aren't "wrong".

Οὖτις, Friday, 6 March 2020 20:19 (five months ago) link

people can and do certainly base their votes on shit that's plainly, demonstrably not true. I think it's fair to call those votes "wrong".

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:20 (five months ago) link

Yes, they're wrong. That it's "their" vote is irrelevant, people own choices that are incorrect all the time.

It's a wrong choice to bareback your high school girlfriend or get drunk and drive 100 miles an hour or vote for someone who is going to make the world a worse place.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:21 (five months ago) link

man I genuinely don't think "people are stupid" is a meaningful analysis of anything. Maybe that's off topic

college bong rip guy (silby), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:21 (five months ago) link

Note that Shakes is the one who said "people are stupid" not me. People make wrong choices for all kinds of reasons, it has nothing to do with intelligence.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:22 (five months ago) link

Shakey calling something sanctimonious is an honor, though, it's like having Sinatra compliment your performance of "My Way."

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:23 (five months ago) link

lol

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:23 (five months ago) link

Why people vote this and that way elides that people can be wrong about why they vote and it's not racist/sexist/etc. to say they're wrong and making a bad choice. We all agree that many of the people who voted for Trump - like the vaunted Obama-to-Trump pipeline - were wrong for this reason or that. The people who get interviewed and were just sure that Trump was actually the candidate who'd bring about nationalized healthcare.


Nobody’s wrong with a single vote. Stupid and wrong are different qualities.

El Tomboto, Friday, 6 March 2020 20:31 (five months ago) link

many xposts obv

El Tomboto, Friday, 6 March 2020 20:32 (five months ago) link

Sinatra hated My Way fyi

Οὖτις, Friday, 6 March 2020 20:37 (five months ago) link

Nobody has two votes so nobody's wrong?

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:38 (five months ago) link

Ever?

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:38 (five months ago) link

ever ever?

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:38 (five months ago) link

(Well, I had three votes for Bernie but that's just because two of my dead grandparents were still on the election rolls.)

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:38 (five months ago) link

A worthwhile look at some of what went on behind the scenes in the Warren camp.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/warren-team-wonders-how-they-blew-it-122628

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:46 (five months ago) link

Meanwhile, in FL, a Republican commits fraud on 119 voter records

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/lake/os-lk-voter-fraud-lake-county-cheryl-hall-20200305-42stwdmc65g77aob3ennsmgeay-story.html

sorry for butt rockin (Neanderthal), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:46 (five months ago) link

xp: The lesson for me would be: the Democratic election is a decade (or longer) affair. Develop personal relationships with African American House members. They're way more important than any number of plans, as there aren't enough wonks in the electorate.

sedated, paralyzed, on respirator, slowly drowning (Sanpaku), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:54 (five months ago) link

No one, ever.... is to blame.

Doctor Casino, Friday, 6 March 2020 20:55 (five months ago) link

No one's ever wrong, no one's ever to blame, it just didn't work out between me and you, babe - ain't it a shame?

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:57 (five months ago) link

There are no mistakes in love

"Yeah usually it's more like 3:22." -John Cage's wife (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 6 March 2020 20:57 (five months ago) link

You can look at the menu
But you just can't eat

sorry for butt rockin (Neanderthal), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:01 (five months ago) link

The AP on Sanders' strategy or lack thereof: https://apnews.com/d84e7134e893f67b2f3751a2a581a9a2?fbclid=IwAR3IwQXK7PCVqSVpx2Th3KqjPFCqLy_pwI9yeRcE7ycfAnSPGFvBq9_OO5U

Featuring political advice from Marianne Williamson.

And apologies if this is posted upthread and I missed it, but Nate Silver is raining on Bernie's parade.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/

I hope the new touchscreen voting machines make it easier for me to do a write-in than when I had to spin a wheel for each letter.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:09 (five months ago) link

Pretty sure there's been no bernie parades since tuesday

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:12 (five months ago) link

This is sobering, the whole thread:

I've talked to TOO MANY black Southern voters this week (and during my life) I wanna stop and explain the concept of "the establishment" to some people and why a lot of black Southern voters will NEVER vote for Bernie.
— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, March 6, 2020 11:47 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

wait for it...

Admittedly, that comes with cynicism.
Here is an example:

1 woman told me that Bernie is too "obsessed" with M4A. She believes he'll sell anything out to get it done. Then she shocked the f*ck out of me by explaining something I had never heard of.

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020

She explained that she had read Bernie's M4A plan and didn't like it because it would essentially eliminate private insurance. And, she said, negotiating prescription drugs removed financial incentives for innovating.

Turns out, she was retired from a medical company

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020

k3vin k., Friday, 6 March 2020 21:18 (five months ago) link

At least one of the people whose tweets he used is a black man.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:19 (five months ago) link

Which is the awesome thing about making cases about what twitter proves - half the people are using funny avatars with the name of their favorite Sopranos character as a username.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:20 (five months ago) link

The AP article quotes Deidre DeJear as a neutral party who just couldn't get the time of day from Sanders... she was Kamala Harris's Iowa campaign chair.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:24 (five months ago) link

that tweet (I think I know what you are referring to) was to highlight super progressive black youth as also being dismissive. I kind of got tripped up on it too at first.

Yerac, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:30 (five months ago) link

but I am also really anti-any place using twitter as a source unless that person is fact-checked as existing.

Yerac, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:31 (five months ago) link

that's my defense

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:35 (five months ago) link

The foundation of democracy is that an individual vote is always morally valid. People can be stupid, but not “wrong.”

The results - the electoral college choosing the less popular candidate, the winner using his seat for disgusting emoluments, Stephen Miller and his ilk running the NSC - can be morally abhorrent. But the individual voters are not wrong. Misinformed, uneducated, disengaged, maybe, but not wrong. The vote is a private choice and sacrosanct; that is the ideal of democracy.

El Tomboto, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:44 (five months ago) link

is it time for a new thread?

k3vin k., Friday, 6 March 2020 21:45 (five months ago) link

Certain posters’ inability to comprehend this is most likely due to a blessed distance from political science classes, which I respect and admire, in a way.

El Tomboto, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:46 (five months ago) link

we’re not even to 10,000 posts dude

El Tomboto, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:47 (five months ago) link

it feels like a major crossroads in the campaign and now we can poll the final 2

k3vin k., Friday, 6 March 2020 21:48 (five months ago) link

u r otm about the vote btw

k3vin k., Friday, 6 March 2020 21:48 (five months ago) link

"You can demean them as human beings but never say they're wrong" is batshit insane.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:53 (five months ago) link

"Wrong" choices have nothing to do with "moral validity." There's nothing "morally invalid" with risky sex - but herpes follows you for the rest of your life.

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 21:54 (five months ago) link

rmde but I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you don't understand how voting works, since you don't understand how elections work either

Οὖτις, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:58 (five months ago) link

Herpes 2020.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 6 March 2020 21:59 (five months ago) link

Frankie baby!

Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, 6 March 2020 22:02 (five months ago) link

this is probably our silliest argument yet (today)

bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Friday, 6 March 2020 22:03 (five months ago) link

get in here, goons
2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

k3vin k., Friday, 6 March 2020 22:05 (five months ago) link

good night and good luck

TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 6 March 2020 22:05 (five months ago) link

Milo has herpes?

a bevy of supermodels, musicians and Lena Dunham (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 6 March 2020 22:10 (five months ago) link


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