TO MOLLIFY LINGJACKSON OVERDRIVEBERT WHO IS THE SQUEAKY DESERT FIEND, POST ON THIS THREAD AND ONE OF YOUR FRIENDLY ITR MODS WILL TELL YOU THAT YOU ARE WICKED AWESOME, AND POSSIBLY OFFER AN EFFUSIVE ST

Tom, I hope you're right. Republicans are so good at falling in line; I'd like to see that NOT happen again.

I should add that Tom is right in that a LOT of Republicans have been freaking publicly about Huckabee since he started to gain traction. I can't see them voting for Dems, but in my little dream, they stay home on election day.

I always feel like the scary groundswell of 18-22 year old myspace "Christian Others" is woefully underrated by the coasts. Nothing personal, but I meet these people on a regular basis, and they scare the hell out of me.

they are as roaches. eek eek.

dubya being a christian dumbass had a lot to do with it but also he got big bonus points for being 1) not clinton, 2) not kerry, 3) part of a giant party conspiracy to fuck up the election process

Huckabee the candidate will be better for the future of the Dems than Huckabee the dropout organizer of Christian Coalition 2.0.

I want to know where John is going to meet young Christians. (omg, the horrible jokes I am not making because I am basically half-blind still)

Tom, true on all counts, plus he had the "Bush" name (I really don't know why people felt nostalgia for the first President Bush, but whatever). But still. It unnerves me. I don't want to spend another bunch of years cringing in embarrassment whenever the President opens his mouth.

FB... you might be right. I hope so.

The Republicans have been good about falling in line, but there are a lot of fissures right now and, honestly, all of their candidates expose those fissures. Huckabee is not ready for November. Among his strengths, however, are his appeal as a socially conservative, economically moderate populist. Classic stuff with a lot of midland appeal, but I don't think the social conservatives are actually ready for a populist message. Government is bad and taxes are oppression--this is still being preached from a nlot of pulpits.

FB I think it partly freaks me because a whole lot of my mother's side of the family totally falls into that social conservative/don't care about the rest of it thing. (Honestly I think that if Bush ate a child's brain on live television, they'd applaud it). They are primarily Catholic, not evangelical, but wow they will do whatever the R in charge says.

I do love love love the exposure of the R fault lines, though, absolutely. I think I'm just too close (family-wise) to too many people who will happily vote for whatever the Republicans tell them to vote for.

Also, considering the hyper racist "Proud to be White" email my uncle recently sent me, I dread the future anti-Obama forwards I'm sure to receive.

I admire your optimism, but the fissures you speak of always seem to be a lot wider and insurmountable to the people on the outside than they do to the party loyal. Plenty of people will drop in line to avoid the "loose morals" of the Democrats in that great american tradition of lesser of two evils in November.

uh xpost to FB

I have never in my life wanted to agree more with FB than with John.

(lol about xposting)

Guys, if someone is smart enough to run for president, then they're smart enough to do a great job, that's what I say! Go people running for president yay!

I generally agree with you, but before the Christian Coalition, evangelicals were more likely to stay home than not. All I'm saying is that no trend is permanent given a long enough time-span; we could see relatively tepid numbers from the Republican's GOTV efforts. The strength of that voting block could start sliding.

xpost I just misread that as a comment from Dan, then realized no, then realized that Dan is going to kill you, John.

FB, I heart your notion. But I just can't let myself believe in it. Cause, you know, 2004 for one thing.

That being said, every time I think of Karl Rove and his "permanent Republican majority," I do get a thrill of thinking of every future electio where that will be thrown back into his face (also 2006 was so delicious). I mean, there is basic political arrogance and then there is MEGA-HUBRIS.

T/S "permanent Republican majority" vs. "unstoppable American economy"?

Yes, it's all part of the same delusion. "The business cycle is OVER!"

It's one thing for people to be crazy enough to think or believe this stuff, but to say it on national tv, that is what gets me.

god I despite arrogance ugh

And worse: supreme arrogance combined with abject stupidity. Revolting.

Look at how close all of these presidential elections have been. A few flaws and strengths can make all the difference; how well each party executes GOTV drives, etc.

My argument is that if 95% of the evangelicals and Catholics that voted for Bush in 2004 vote in 2008, that is a loss of a few million votes out of the Republican column. State by state, that can make a difference.

My dad terrified me over Christmas break when he told my father-in-law that the main reason he's still a Republican is because the Democrats were pro-slavery/anti-black-people in the 19th century. I was all, "Uh, have you SEEN the Republican Party lately???????"

Fortunately he then went on to rep fiercely for Obama, but still, MADMAN.

Also I'm about a nanosecond away from banning HI DEAR.

I don't disagree with that, I just don't like to put any faith in it.

What I do find hopeful is the notion of the new caucus-goers that seem to have pushed Obama over the top (big time) in Iowa. I don't know if that can translate nationally, but it is nice to see genuine excitement out there. On the other hand, the more reliable voters are older, white, and some of them really do have a problem with people who are not white.

Dan... wow. Just wow. I sometimes like to think that I'm imagining the crazy racism of the current R party, but then I get the stuff from my family and I'm like, OMG I AM IN DENIAL HERE.

In your Dad's defense, though, I don't want to believe that current shit is real.

PS Dan, you should come home and ban HI DEAR in person.

Who is HI DEAR?

He's this wacky guy who is on some kind of new sunshine drug.

FB, let me be the first person to promise to buy you a drink if your optimism plays out in November. No joke.

okay megafucking lolz at Giuliani (aka the Howard Dean of 2008)

Biden just announced he's going to actually drop out, instead of just being an embarrassing hopeless hanger-on for a few weeks.

I am seriously freaked out by Giuliani, both in terms of politics, and also in terms of looks. Maybe he could go on to a fulfilling career in B grade horror flicks.

lol poor Biden, srsly why was he even in it in the first place?

In the o_O but factually true comment category on CNN just now "Iowa has never elected an African-American to anything".

MN really ought to take this opportunity to build that southern border wall while we still can.

Oh, Chris Dodd out, too.

I'm sure this was your point, but Iowa is almost as white, as, like North Dakota, isn't it?

lol John, get out there with your tool belt and some boards

NOTE NOTE NOTE: None of my vitriol towards Iowa has anything to do with the couldn't be more awesome Democratic result this evening.

BTW African-American population of Iowa = 2.3%, so yes.

I think we all know that you just fear the cornfields, John.

xpost

I refuse to get excited about the results, even though the D results were what I hoped for. Too cynical?

Still, Obama's victory speech was really good and definitely historic results and omg I'm going to talk myself into getting excited. I'd better go find a snack.

FB, let me be the first person to promise to buy you a drink if your optimism plays out in November. No joke.

Don't misread my favorable response to the IA caucuses as optimism. A lot of water will flow under the bridge between now and November, but if I'm reading the trail signs right, I do believe that right now, ten months before the event, the Dems are in a stronger position than the the Republicans.

Long trail, it's true, and I am NOT saying I disagree with you. Only that I'm afraid to agree with you; I just take it all too personally.

And I'm serious about the drink because nothing would make me happier than to have been wrong about this.

(wrong about my depressing cynicism which I will probably pass on to my two kids, creating a horrible self-fulfilling prophecy! Just say yes to the drink offer! It will create good karma or something!)

I really hope I'm wrong, FB, but your portrayal of the events seems colored by a belief in an imaginary unified Democratic front vs. a fractionary and squabbling Republican one. Also, the designed by a crazy person square-dance structure of the Iowa Dem caucus structure limited the possible results to clear shared winners vs. abject and complete losers, where the Republican straw poll version guaranteed the sort of winner to loser bell curve you see over there.

All I'm saying is that there are a bunch of Republican dudes sitting around high-fiving about the fact that Hillarys third place finish/the three way split means the dems are showing that they are a house divided.

(xpost to Sara)

I totally get your meaning. I just want to be clear that I am not optimistic, even though Republican enthusiasm and unity are repressed relative to the recent past.

Next is NH. Who knows what the outcome will be in NH. The NH primaries rarely look like the IA caucuses.

Just catching up with you, John. (watching Deadwood WOOT)

WOOT!

I hate it when I agree with John on politics. HATE IT.

But here's the thing: Democrats are often difficult to keep on the same page, Republicans not so much.

So if someone could please just time machine me to mid-November, I'd really appreciate it.