NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON

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Who will be swept in the World Series?

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Beermakers 5
Bears 3
Redlegs 0
Redbirds 0
Bucs 0
Astros0


francisF, Friday, 28 March 2008 18:43 (ten years ago) Permalink

dammit

francisF, Friday, 28 March 2008 18:44 (ten years ago) Permalink

Why don't we use this for the NL Central Wild Card? Because they, not the division champs, will advance to the Fall Classic.

felicity, Friday, 28 March 2008 19:11 (ten years ago) Permalink

Wait

felicity, Friday, 28 March 2008 19:11 (ten years ago) Permalink

oh right baseball

felicity, Friday, 28 March 2008 19:12 (ten years ago) Permalink

Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates
Cards

The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Sunday, 30 March 2008 22:07 (ten years ago) Permalink

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Pirates
Cards

Hubie Brown, Sunday, 30 March 2008 22:15 (ten years ago) Permalink

The Brews/'Stros/Reds order could go anywhichway imho.

The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Sunday, 30 March 2008 22:32 (ten years ago) Permalink

Hubie, looks like we got a Brewers homer in the house.

Hohokam is "authentic." Peoria Field is posh.

But Maryvale, Arizona in March is a 100% All-American, double-your-money-back, guaranteed GOOD TIME.

:D

felicity, Monday, 31 March 2008 02:07 (ten years ago) Permalink

Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
Cardinals

Andy K, Monday, 31 March 2008 02:26 (ten years ago) Permalink

two weeks pass...

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

ILX System, Monday, 14 April 2008 23:01 (ten years ago) Permalink

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Cards
Pirates
Astros

Dimension 5ive, Tuesday, 15 April 2008 03:56 (ten years ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

ILX System, Tuesday, 15 April 2008 23:01 (ten years ago) Permalink

Keith Law: (1:08 PM ET ) I don't know what's funnier - that the Tejada trade continues to make Ed Wade look worse every day, or that Tejada might still be understating his age? ...He admitted today that he's two years older than his listed age.

Dr Morbius, Thursday, 17 April 2008 17:21 (ten years ago) Permalink

The report I read says that his DRIVERS' LICENSE actually states his proper birth year (1974) -- due diligence, anyone?

David R., Thursday, 17 April 2008 17:23 (ten years ago) Permalink

that is awesome, i hate the astros <3<3<3

omar little, Thursday, 17 April 2008 18:43 (ten years ago) Permalink

ten years pass...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-opportunity-in-front-of-the-reds/

the nl central projection in this article seems really weird:

Cubs, 87-75
Cardinals, 86-76
Pirates, 80-82
Reds, 80-82
Brewers, 79-83

brewers were 96-67 last season. i'm not aware of any big changes they've made other than adding yasmani grandal. so i don't know why they'd drop 17 wins.

na (NA), Tuesday, 22 January 2019 21:35 (three weeks ago) Permalink

seems like the projections hate their starting pitchers?

mookieproof, Tuesday, 22 January 2019 21:49 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Its in line with their last two years - in 2017, they were projected to win 73 (they won 86) and in 2018 they were projected at 79 (they won 96)

I generally trust FG's methods but if the Brewers manage a 90+ win season then something's gotta be off

frogbs, Tuesday, 22 January 2019 22:15 (three weeks ago) Permalink

they seriously underrated the royals during their good seasons as well

mookieproof, Tuesday, 22 January 2019 22:22 (three weeks ago) Permalink

guessing that's because the Royals played high-BABIP baseball which their projections maybe didn't adjust accurately for. or maybe those Royals teams just got extraordinarily lucky. I can see the Royals' style having a lot more variance than say, a team full of disciplined HR hitters

as for the Brewers - maybe they think a lot of their hitters had career years in 2018? hard to imagine Yelich, Cain, or Aguilar playing any *better* than they did last year, but I can definitely see them being worse (especially Aguilar)

also worth mentioning that both teams relied heavily on lockdown relievers that allowed them to convert nearly every game they were leading after 6. the combined WAR of Hader/Jeffress/Knebel was 5.5 but I kinda wonder if their projections have difficulty converting those numbers into *actual* WPA. maybe I'm misunderstanding how WAR is calculated, but Hader could've had the same season but have only been used in games where they were losing by 2+, and his WAR would be the same, right?

frogbs, Tuesday, 22 January 2019 22:53 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Even before the Gray trade, given what they did last year, I had seen some numbers that stated taking out Homer's and some of the other dregs starts and swapping in Roark and Woods' 2018 by the numbers the Reds 'could' have been a .500 club last year.

earlnash, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:12 (three weeks ago) Permalink

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

earlnash, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:15 (three weeks ago) Permalink

i predictatron that the st louis cardinals will be the 2019 world champions of the united states of america and canada
the brewers will lose 80, the cubs will easily take a wild card spot. pirates and reds, hangin in there
yeah i said it, let's do this

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:16 (three weeks ago) Permalink

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:18 (three weeks ago) Permalink

if you use this thread you have to let us talk about the astros too they're grandfathered in

ciderpress, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:33 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Need to just move the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays to the ILB Central.

I'm guessing Yanks, but who was the Brewers division rival in the AL East days?

earlnash, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 00:41 (three weeks ago) Permalink

if the projections have first and last separated by eight games, just imagine what one of those teams might accomplish with a bryce harper or manny machado

makes u think

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 04:01 (three weeks ago) Permalink

They never really had a division rival, partly because they were rarely good enough to be rivaling anyone, but mostly because those divisional alignments made no sense, with the Midwestern teams divided randomly between the two divisions. They had no natural geographical rivals with St Louis, Chicago, Kansas City, and even Minnesota all in other divisions.

The AL East wasn't strong in rivalries for the most part. During the seventies the Orioles crushed the division most years, so there wasn't much competition going on. Yanks-Sox went into deep freeze from '78 on, since they were never really good at the same time. Detroit and Toronto had a great rivalry in the mid-80's, otherwise it was a fairly dry division for a long time.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 23 January 2019 06:06 (three weeks ago) Permalink

I think ILB might consider just doing one big NL Central thread this season, since it 'seems' be the most popular division on the site as we got fans of all the clubs on the board.

i'd be into that. we could just use this thread, too

is anyone else into this idea? i like it because it saves me from bookmarking/following the 4 other NL central threads, and also because the cardinals thread is usually just me talking to myself and making tony larussa jokes

Karl Malone, Sunday, 3 February 2019 23:13 (one week ago) Permalink

I'm game. Reds should have some neat stuff coming up this season as it is the club's 150th anniversary. So expect quite a few instances of retro jerseys and the usual bobblehead action from Cincy.

earlnash, Monday, 4 February 2019 01:05 (one week ago) Permalink

I think consolidation is a good idea in general on ilx in 2019

na (NA), Monday, 4 February 2019 01:10 (one week ago) Permalink

i wasn't planning to make a pirates thread because fuck them and their cheap bullshit

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/piker-pirates-its-time-for-pittsburgh-to-shake-off-its-reputation-as-one-of-the-thriftiest-teams-in-baseball

mookieproof, Monday, 4 February 2019 01:26 (one week ago) Permalink

Contraction down to six divisional threads plus a general reg-season thread would be an interesting experiment.

One Thing All ILXors Have In Common, Brace Yourself (WmC), Monday, 4 February 2019 02:16 (one week ago) Permalink

Here’s a crazy idea: what about just one thread

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:36 (one week ago) Permalink

Theoretically, everyone would just post to it. And be ok with reading things that weren’t immediately about their favorite team. They’d be flexible and wouldn’t be bothered, and the thread would be busy. At least two major arguments would occur. It would be great for everyone #onethread #ilbnation

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:38 (one week ago) Permalink

To fule them all

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 4 February 2019 02:38 (one week ago) Permalink

Even if no one agrees I might just go rogue and spam the regular season thread with cardinals news

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 02:39 (one week ago) Permalink

no sorry I insist on year-specific threads not only for every team but every topic

respect my authority

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 4 February 2019 04:16 (one week ago) Permalink

What about separate threads for every hall of fame election? + an extra thread for era-specific elections?

Karl Malone, Monday, 4 February 2019 04:24 (one week ago) Permalink

blow up the HOF before Harold Baines makes a speech

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 4 February 2019 04:44 (one week ago) Permalink

rip cubs

PECOTA projections were released today by @baseballpro. It has the Nationals and the Mets (!) tied atop the NL East at 89 wins. pic.twitter.com/5ARMA0pRv2

— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) February 7, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 7 February 2019 16:09 (one week ago) Permalink

why are these so far off from the FG predictions

frogbs, Thursday, 7 February 2019 16:15 (one week ago) Permalink

that's a good question. fangraphs projects last place for the brewers (79-83), PECOTA projects first place (89-73). fangraphs has them scoring 4.46 runs and giving up 4.58 runs a game. PECOTA has them scoring 4.56 runs and giving up 4.07 per game. so i guess PECOTA is way more bullish on their pitching? haven't looked at all the others yet

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:03 (one week ago) Permalink

you can't predict baseball, suzyn

mookieproof, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:08 (one week ago) Permalink

i project that the cardinals will win between 72 and 112 games this year - where they fall, exactly, will depend on performance and luck

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:32 (one week ago) Permalink

*nods sagely*

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:33 (one week ago) Permalink

lol, that gave me the idea for a fantasy baseball team name except I don't play anymore — Long Live Giambi

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:39 (one week ago) Permalink

(I'm sure someone else thought of it first.)

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:40 (one week ago) Permalink

nope. now you must come back.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 7 February 2019 17:57 (one week ago) Permalink

I can't do it! Every day I didn't get max points out of my roster I was furious at myself. Had to give it up just for sanity's sake.

ILX Moderator: It's Like a Pressure Wash for Your Insides (WmC), Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:03 (one week ago) Permalink

xxxp: PECOTA is infamously inaccurate (one of the primary reasons why there are so many other more accurate models these days).

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:17 (one week ago) Permalink

i don't know much about the track record of success for pre-season projections (seems like an impossible task, since injuries and mid-season trades are a thing). but at least on the brewers, i'd lean toward PECOTA more than fangraphs

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:19 (one week ago) Permalink

i predict that each team in the NL central will win 86 games

Karl Malone, Thursday, 7 February 2019 18:19 (one week ago) Permalink

just curious, are the brewers going after dallas keuchel at all? their only weakness is starting pitching imo, seems like it would make a lot of sense? is it just money, i guess? i know the brewers are a small market team but am i wrong in thinking that pretty much any team in baseball, in the era of billion dollar tv deals, can afford keuchel?

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:31 (one week ago) Permalink

is it his beard? it's probably his beard

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 16:32 (one week ago) Permalink

he's had a couple majestic seasons and quite a few very average seasons, he's 31, his strikeouts are down, etc.

so i can see him thinking 'i am a cy young winner' and other teams thinking 'not anymore, really' and there being a gap in perceived value. but yeah, any team *could* afford him

mookieproof, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:37 (one week ago) Permalink

still projected for ~ 3.5 WAR for next year, though, which would make him the ace of the brewers and bump a mediocre SP out of the rotation. i'm just surprised they haven't jumped on it

Karl Malone, Saturday, 9 February 2019 19:49 (one week ago) Permalink

3.5 WAR would be better than their first three starters combined.

In any case he is represented by Boras so we will be lucky if he signs anywhere before Opening Day.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 9 February 2019 20:37 (one week ago) Permalink

Makes You Think

Cubs manager Joe Maddon says “Own It Now” is his mantra for this season. Taking ownership. Owning the moment. And, “now” backwards is “won”. pic.twitter.com/vWl50DcLuC

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 12, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:46 (four days ago) Permalink

If Keuchel wants a multi-year deal I can see why the Brewers would be gun-shy. they have a long history of signing 31-year old SPs to 3/4-year deals and watching them become totally worthless halfway through year 2 (or from the very first start in the case of Jeff Suppan)

honestly have no clue what they're planning - the big questions for Milwaukee are 1) do you expect Jimmy Nelson to be healthy and effective and 2) is Corbin Burnes gonna be a serviceable starter. if both those things are 'yes' then I don't think they necessarily need another SP (at least, not at the price they'd likely have to pay)

frogbs, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 20:55 (four days ago) Permalink

of course he wants a multi-year deal

mookieproof, Tuesday, 12 February 2019 22:25 (four days ago) Permalink

i don't actually believe the cubs will finish last -- they do, after all, Own the Now -- but lol anyway

updated PECOTA has Cubs last in the NL Central. 😬 https://t.co/KBxbepFrm2

— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) February 13, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 19:49 (three days ago) Permalink

😬

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:16 (three days ago) Permalink

not a lot of margin of difference/error between those bottom three teams

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:17 (three days ago) Permalink

it's weird they have the cubs defense rated so low compared to the pirates. i don't know much about the pirates defense but i thought the cubs defense was pretty good, except for when schwarber is in the game

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:19 (three days ago) Permalink

that seems to be the reason for the cubs being in last considering they're predicted to be better at the pirates at everything else

na (NA), Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:21 (three days ago) Permalink

neither the pirates nor the cubs seem to have done much of anything this winter, but the cubs will have a full season of hamels and possibly some darvish. no idea why this somehow closes last year's 12-game gap between them

mookieproof, Wednesday, 13 February 2019 20:49 (three days ago) Permalink


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