NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

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who will win the division

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Chicago Cubs 4
Milwaukee Brewers 3
St. Louis Cardinals 2
Cincinnati Reds 0
Pittsburgh Pirates 0


na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (three months ago) Permalink

also feel free to discuss any of the division teams in here unless you really want to start a team-specific thread

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (three months ago) Permalink

i have no idea who's going to win the division. my instinctual guess is the cardinals.

i am predicting the cubs offense will rebound from last year but i do not trust any of their pitching beyond hendricks

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:53 (three months ago) Permalink

expecting lester to really fall off a cliff this year, which is not something one often thinks of 18-game winners

i think there's a good chance the pirates finish last, and in a way, i hope they do

mookieproof, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:26 (three months ago) Permalink

the cubs' pitching is potentially very good but also potentially a total disaster. Lester, Darvish, and Hamels all have the ability to strike out 200 and win 18 games, and also be sloppy, ineffective, and/or injured for the majority of the year.

Bote has been hitting the ball well this spring and taking a ton of walks. Same for Schwarber. I'm anticipating a major year from Bryant and a return to the slightly better stats from previous years for Rizzo. I think they'll be in it til the end, but a division title might be a stretch.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:33 (three months ago) Permalink

Lester has always felt like a guy who has been balancing on the edge of a knife; those worrying walk numbers and disastrous starts have always been there, but usually he's won despite the former and the latter have been infrequent. I agree he could fall off that cliff.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:34 (three months ago) Permalink

he's gotten worse every year since 2015 but it also seems like he figures out ways to get around getting worse

contreras' offense has looked better in spring training too, which is a good sign

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 20:43 (three months ago) Permalink

if his offense is good that'll be a bonus, he's a very good defensive catcher as-is.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 21:29 (three months ago) Permalink

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/brewers-rumors-craig-kimbrel-talks.html

if the brewers get him, they will have hader, knebel, jeffress, and kimbrel. wow.

also, not that anyone cares but i would have to switch my second favorite NL central team designation elsewhere because i can't stand kimbrel's dumbass hanging arm monster thing

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:40 (two months ago) Permalink

i have no idea who is going to win the division. will probably wait until the deadline of the poll, just in case last minute additions (like kimbrel) swing the balance

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:42 (two months ago) Permalink

Cardinals lineup adding Goldschmidt looks pretty impressive. I like picking up Wieters to be the backup catcher too as I think part time duty seems to bring back the bat for some veteran catchers. If Yady actually lets them take him out of the lineup, it could be good for both of them. Cardinals pitching isn't quite as impressive, but it does have room to improve in 2019 too.

Cubs won 95 last year and had kind of middling years out of quite a few players. Pitching staff is older and I would think could be worse, but they still have good depth and could deal for a couple guys too.

Brewers seemed to have everything go right last year. It will be interesting to see if they fall back or hold up to last year. I kinda feel like they will fall back a bit.

Pirates are better than they might seem on first glance. They should/could have the best rotation in the division, but then they held pat on improving the club in any means. Things go well with the young guys, they could be a .500 team I would figure. Kind of a push.

Reds with the trades have some interesting players playing for contracts including Puig. They should be like a bunch of Cincy teams in that they score runs like a beer league softball team and have pretty sxxt starting pitching. They have added some arms that should help the rotation, but I'm a Reds fan and a pessimist. Sonny Gray is already fighting a bad back. I do think the bullpen could be good and has some depth, so they could win some games with softball scores.

I'd bet my 2 bucks on the Cardinals to win the division, but the NLC should be very competitive as it often is.

earlnash, Thursday, 21 March 2019 18:29 (two months ago) Permalink

Huh Ian Happ starting the season in AAA

na (NA), Sunday, 24 March 2019 00:34 (two months ago) Permalink

I'm glad Jimenez is not on this Cubs roster.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 24 March 2019 03:50 (two months ago) Permalink

I'd have to think it is just that Ian Happ has options and they are still ridiculously deep in some places. Seemed that Happ would eventually end up the replacement for Zobrist. Got to think Happ would be in the bigs on a bunch of other clubs and some clubs might inquire upon him.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:07 (two months ago) Permalink

i really hope this predictatron isn't right but i'm a little worried about the possibility that andrew miller is the greg holland of 2019

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:09 (two months ago) Permalink

Scooter Gennette is out 8-12 weeks with a hammy. Looks like Reds are going to use Jose Iglesias at short and move Jose Peraza back to second at least to start the season.

Nick Senzel heading to AAA to keep playing CF as Scott Schebler has won the starting job there for now. Senzel was probably going to go down anyway so that the Reds could get the 'bonus year' and most likely bring him up in May. Got to wonder if Senzel might be playing some 2b, as he played that at times in college and minors.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:28 (two months ago) Permalink

didn't know senzel could play CF! (or can he?)

i have nothing to back this up with, but it seems like there are more players these days who can legitimately play a decent OF and IF. in early zobrist days it seemed more unusual?

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:33 (two months ago) Permalink

Senzel did some winter ball work in CF and has prepped for it all spring.

Talk was that Puig might see some time in center too, it's not an ideal situation and probably will get defensively exploited in some of the bigger parks. You will get more offense instead of Billy Hamilton, but you will have a number of extra base hits drop in without him.

I think being able to play more positions at least to a certain level of competency is still a valid way to have an extended playing career.

I think Andrew Miller was a much better pitcher than Holland over all career, but it's hard to bet on any reliever at age 33 as it is such a boom/bust proposition. For every reliever that fails, you have another reliever seem to bounce back and be productive again after some time of either being injured and/or ineffective. And at 33, they could just be done at any time.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:47 (two months ago) Permalink

relievers are indeed a crapshoot. it'd be nice if andrew miller could manage to be at least league average, though, rather than single-handedly blowing a handful of games over the course of a month like holland did last year

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:56 (two months ago) Permalink

Corey Knebel potentially needing Tommy John really sucks

frogbs, Monday, 25 March 2019 04:09 (two months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 00:01 (two months ago) Permalink

Hendricks extension with #Cubs is four years, $55.595M, according to a source. Includes club option for fifth season as well.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 26, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 17:51 (two months ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Wednesday, 27 March 2019 00:01 (two months ago) Permalink

Brewers did better than i would have expected

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 04:07 (two months ago) Permalink

they won the division last year and have only gotten better on paper

na (NA), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:04 (two months ago) Permalink

i picked Brew-haas

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:10 (two months ago) Permalink

goldschmidt will have a chance at a 4th HR in the top of the next inning

Update:
Home run #3: 106.4 mph https://t.co/HJKbE4WAZ7

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) March 30, 2019

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:32 (two months ago) Permalink

how many more years y'all got him for

frogbs, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:34 (two months ago) Permalink

for all the years

dan maclaughlin keeps saying "you are going to love him saint louis! you are gonna LOVE him!"

he did it after 2 home runs in Spring Training, and predictatronably he did it after his first regular season HR

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:37 (two months ago) Permalink

i just saw someone say that Yelich has a 42% HR/FB rate in Miller Park. is that right?!

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:38 (two months ago) Permalink

lol brewers just IBB'd goldschmidt

down 5-9 in the 9th. i get it, but

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (two months ago) Permalink

i thought the brewers were cool

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (two months ago) Permalink

Maclaughlin just said “folks you’re gonna love him” as it went to the post-game crew

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:54 (two months ago) Permalink

christian yelich is on fire

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 23:24 (two months ago) Permalink

*shakes fist*

YELIIIIIICH

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:27 (two months ago) Permalink

This might have been the greatest trade in Milwaukee Brewers history

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:28 (two months ago) Permalink

only other players to HR in first 4 games:

Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis and Trevor Story.

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:33 (two months ago) Permalink

he's been absolutely on fire since like...august 2018?

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:34 (two months ago) Permalink

And a walk-off double...He's obviously already clinched another MVP.

clemenza, Sunday, 31 March 2019 21:26 (two months ago) Permalink

On base all 5 times

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 22:16 (two months ago) Permalink

lolcubs

mookieproof, Sunday, 31 March 2019 23:55 (two months ago) Permalink

I don't remember the STL announcers being as annoying/repetitive as they are on the call for the Goldschmidt homers.

Michael F Gill, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:39 (two months ago) Permalink

i am going to LOVE him in st louis!

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:53 (two months ago) Permalink

you guys are REALLY not gonna make team threads? so weird

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 April 2019 03:10 (two months ago) Permalink

in this age of robot umpires, all sense of boundary has been erased and we just mingle around to different food stands, watching baseball

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 03:43 (two months ago) Permalink

cubs scored 28 runs in the rangers series and still went 1-2

na (NA), Monday, 1 April 2019 14:43 (two months ago) Permalink

Opposite: Jays held the Tigers to 6 runs in 4 games (only 3 runs in the regulation 36 innings) and went 2-2.

clemenza, Monday, 1 April 2019 16:37 (two months ago) Permalink

33 pitches in the first for waino; 14 of them strikes : /

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 17:39 (two months ago) Permalink

yadi is playing 3B

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 21:59 (two months ago) Permalink

Says something for the Reds to give up two weekend home games soon against the Cardinals to play in Mexico. I do hope they break out the 'Los Rojos' uniforms they used last year.

earlnash, Monday, 1 April 2019 23:48 (two months ago) Permalink

His new neck tattoo is actually a lot better. Before it was just a set of music notes 🎵🎶

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Monday, 27 May 2019 00:54 (three weeks ago) Permalink

I'd like to know how much the Reds team batting average went up this weekend as they went (42-116) .362 at the plate in the 3 game series. Cubs now have lost 2 series to the Reds in May.

earlnash, Monday, 27 May 2019 01:22 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Not that it matters in the big picture as Derek Dietrich has pretty much emulated his success in some ways both with the home run power and certain panache, but Scooter Gennett must have been hurt pretty bad in spring training. He was out 1/2 of spring training and is heading into June, out two months without starting back playing yet. Don't think they expected it to go this long.

earlnash, Monday, 27 May 2019 01:27 (three weeks ago) Permalink

yadi looks like he’s seen attack ships burn off the shoulder of orion

mookieproof, Monday, 27 May 2019 01:38 (three weeks ago) Permalink

when he makes his big league debut tonight, génesis cabrera will become the 2000th player to appear in a game for the cardinals since they joined the NL in 1892

mookieproof, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 16:49 (two weeks ago) Permalink

(mitch keller recently became the 1979th player to appear for the pirates)

mookieproof, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 16:52 (two weeks ago) Permalink

cubs sign carlos gonzalez to a minor-league deal. local sports radio dudes point out this shows how the team feels about ian happ.

na (NA), Thursday, 30 May 2019 20:09 (two weeks ago) Permalink

just a head's up - one of the cardinals top prospects is Dylan Carlson, which is the same name as the Earth guy.

could be cool

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Thursday, 30 May 2019 20:25 (two weeks ago) Permalink

génesis cabrera will become the 2000th player to appear in a game for the cardinals

"Cards! You've got Genesis!"

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 30 May 2019 20:30 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I could see Carlos Gonzalez as a nice platoon player and pinch hitter. It's kind of an old Yankees type signing. Might hit or miss, either way they can afford to give him a shot. Cargo's stat line is a pretty classic peak around age 30 so far, but hey he hit the lottery with one big deal. I'd figure after that kind of deal, baseball is a hobby (albeit that pays well). I'm sure Cargo would like to play in the playoffs and have a shot at winning a ring.

earlnash, Friday, 31 May 2019 01:41 (two weeks ago) Permalink

The Cardinals have lost seven consecutive one-run games in May. You have to go back to July 1970 to find that many one-run losses and zero victories in the same month.

not sure if the second sentence is MLB-wide or just cardinals history - probably the latter

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Friday, 31 May 2019 14:39 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I would imagine - assuming these are 50/50 your odds are 1 in 128 out of any given 7-game stretch of one-run games, I would guess some team accomplishes that misfortune every year

frogbs, Friday, 31 May 2019 15:59 (two weeks ago) Permalink

pretty sure this is the first time since jason thompson circa 1982-85 that the pirates' best hitter is their first baseman

in between there have been a couple serviceable guys and an astonishing number of flat-out awful ones

mookieproof, Friday, 31 May 2019 16:48 (two weeks ago) Permalink

3+ hour rain delay. this trio must have been ragin

https://i.imgur.com/JmI64CS.png

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Sunday, 2 June 2019 04:41 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Brewers/Pirates yesterday was nuts

frogbs, Sunday, 2 June 2019 12:10 (two weeks ago) Permalink

The Brewers placed Gio Gonzalez on the injured list with a dead arm.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 2 June 2019 15:26 (two weeks ago) Permalink

that's pretty ominous, doesn't "dead arm" usually mean TJ? not to mention Chacin is *also* on the DL, though he's been fairly garbage in nearly every start thus far. on the flip side Jimmy Nelson is set to return Wednesday, the Brewers could potentially have a decent starter in their rotation for once

frogbs, Sunday, 2 June 2019 18:17 (two weeks ago) Permalink

nah, 'dead arm' is pretty common. not a good sign or anything, but it happens.

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Sunday, 2 June 2019 18:40 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I kind of always just took it for basic over use inflammation.

earlnash, Sunday, 2 June 2019 18:47 (two weeks ago) Permalink

"pretty sure this is the first time since jason thompson circa 1982-85 that the pirates' best hitter is their first baseman"

Bell starting to hit like he looks. He's built like Frank Thomas, football player build.

Pirates have had a lot of formerly serviceable guys at the end of their careers playing first who are most known for playing with other teams.

earlnash, Sunday, 2 June 2019 20:48 (two weeks ago) Permalink

The move Brewers fans have been dreading. Hiura goes back down to make room for Travis Shaw’s return from IL. https://t.co/L7ciO1hak2

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) June 3, 2019

mookieproof, Monday, 3 June 2019 20:01 (two weeks ago) Permalink

seems like a dumb move

na (NA), Monday, 3 June 2019 20:06 (two weeks ago) Permalink

idk. i mean shaw did hit 30 homers the last two seasons, but he also did not look cured in his triple-a stint

tough all around when every team needs 15 relievers

mookieproof, Monday, 3 June 2019 20:16 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I am sure he'll be back fairly soon but yeah, pretty disappointing. he looks big-league ready.

frogbs, Monday, 3 June 2019 21:19 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I'm pretty sure the longterm solution is gonna be DFA'ing Aguilar - he's actually been *worse* than Shaw, and I think his prior success is a bit more flukey. Plus, we already have Eric Thames...you can always use middle infielders, while bad 1B/DH guys do nothing but clog up the roster

frogbs, Monday, 3 June 2019 22:26 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Moustakas just broke his finger so Hiura will probably be coming back in a day or two.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 4 June 2019 17:21 (one week ago) Permalink

Cardinals first round draft pick UK pitcher Zach Thompson is from the county in Indiana where I grew up. Jeremy Hazelbaker who had one season as a utility guy for the Cardinals also wen to the same small county high school. I'm sure there are going to be a few less Reds fans growing up in the area and a few more Cardinal (sic) fans. Not like it is a big push to follow the Cubs or something else than the Reds these days in Indiana.

earlnash, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 00:01 (one week ago) Permalink

Unfortunately, he is Zack with a K, and for that reason alone, i don't like the cut of his jib

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 00:06 (one week ago) Permalink

so you have also bounced Britton from the brotherhood?

d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 00:12 (one week ago) Permalink

lol, watch the first part (the fielding segment) of this video of the guy the cardinals drafted in the second round yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5c4v_sSfQU

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 00:19 (one week ago) Permalink

mmmmm

Today @baseballpro, how #Rays Austin Meadows has fulfilled the potential that always lurked in his bat, becoming one of baseball’s best hitters. It’s a story of approach and mechanics, and of the #Pirates looking awfully silly again. https://t.co/b1BKvUnYgf

— Matthew Trueblood (@MATrueblood) June 5, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 14:34 (one week ago) Permalink

all three pirates color guys have now said stupid shit that drew national attention just in the last month. i think only steve blass was obviously racist, so maybe that's a minor victory

mookieproof, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 19:39 (one week ago) Permalink

craig "dumbass" kimbrel signs 3-year, $43M deal with Cubs

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Thursday, 6 June 2019 02:29 (one week ago) Permalink

what was he originally asking for?

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 6 June 2019 13:52 (one week ago) Permalink

5+ years, triple digits, I believe

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Thursday, 6 June 2019 14:05 (one week ago) Permalink

triple abbreviated digits

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Thursday, 6 June 2019 14:05 (one week ago) Permalink

The New York Daily News reports:

President Donald Trump’s acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney along with other Republican Party bigwigs are hosting a campaign retreat for donors in Chicago this weekend where guests will be feted with a Wrigley Field reception in a “Friends and Family” suite including a Cubs-Cardinals rivalry game, according to a published report.

Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts is a host of the invitation-only event. Ricketts also is finance chair of the Trump Victory Committee, which is a joint fundraising venture of the president’s re-election campaign and the Republican National Committee.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 6 June 2019 17:27 (one week ago) Permalink

gross.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 6 June 2019 18:14 (one week ago) Permalink

all three pirates color guys have now said stupid shit that drew national attention just in the last month. i think only steve blass was obviously racist, so maybe that's a minor victory

― mookieproof, Wednesday, June 5, 2019 2:39 PM (two days ago)

I guess Blass would bust a blood vessel if he was a barves broadcaster — they're having an Ozzie Albies palm-tree necklace giveaway night.

WmC, Friday, 7 June 2019 23:57 (one week ago) Permalink

it's his last year, at least. and few of us know what it's like to have a disease named after one's self

he's literally been involved with the pirates for almost 60 years; i guess he must have secretly hated dave parker and the we are family team

mookieproof, Saturday, 8 June 2019 00:17 (one week ago) Permalink

I think some people on TV just chatter their way into trouble by not thinking about what they are saying and then trying to save face that they are not an idiot, when it is obvious at least in this case they were.

earlnash, Sunday, 9 June 2019 13:51 (one week ago) Permalink

I find myself rooting for the Cards this weekend as the Cubs need to go die as long as the Rickettses are around

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 10 June 2019 01:06 (one week ago) Permalink

reds are 111 runs better than the pirates. and a game behind them

pirates also have a worse run differential than the marlins

mookieproof, Monday, 10 June 2019 02:11 (one week ago) Permalink

Mike Moustakas has 20 home runs already

frogbs, Monday, 10 June 2019 13:25 (one week ago) Permalink

pirates: last place in the division, worst run differential in the league, worst team ERA in the league, second-worst home attendance in the league

also their biggest trade acquisition in forever, chris archer, has a 5.73 ERA and -0.2 bWAR. it's gonna be hilarious when they decline the 2020-2021 team options on him

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 June 2019 21:46 (four days ago) Permalink

Archers performance isn’t even the worst part of it!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 13 June 2019 21:49 (four days ago) Permalink

at least meadows and glasgow have had minor injuries that will *probably* keep them from winning major awards

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 June 2019 21:51 (four days ago) Permalink

brian reynolds looks ok??

na (NA), Thursday, 13 June 2019 22:00 (four days ago) Permalink

Meadows looks right back on track. Not sure about awards tho (all star yes, maybe silver slugger).

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 13 June 2019 22:07 (four days ago) Permalink

There is plenty of season left for this number to get back to what you usually might see, but the Reds Pythagorean record on Baseball Reference is right now pretty wacky.

Pythagorean (37-31)
Actual (30-38)

earlnash, Sunday, 16 June 2019 16:35 (yesterday) Permalink


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