NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

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who will win the division

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Chicago Cubs 4
Milwaukee Brewers 3
St. Louis Cardinals 2
Cincinnati Reds 0
Pittsburgh Pirates 0


na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (one month ago) Permalink

also feel free to discuss any of the division teams in here unless you really want to start a team-specific thread

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (one month ago) Permalink

i have no idea who's going to win the division. my instinctual guess is the cardinals.

i am predicting the cubs offense will rebound from last year but i do not trust any of their pitching beyond hendricks

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:53 (one month ago) Permalink

expecting lester to really fall off a cliff this year, which is not something one often thinks of 18-game winners

i think there's a good chance the pirates finish last, and in a way, i hope they do

mookieproof, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:26 (one month ago) Permalink

the cubs' pitching is potentially very good but also potentially a total disaster. Lester, Darvish, and Hamels all have the ability to strike out 200 and win 18 games, and also be sloppy, ineffective, and/or injured for the majority of the year.

Bote has been hitting the ball well this spring and taking a ton of walks. Same for Schwarber. I'm anticipating a major year from Bryant and a return to the slightly better stats from previous years for Rizzo. I think they'll be in it til the end, but a division title might be a stretch.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:33 (one month ago) Permalink

Lester has always felt like a guy who has been balancing on the edge of a knife; those worrying walk numbers and disastrous starts have always been there, but usually he's won despite the former and the latter have been infrequent. I agree he could fall off that cliff.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:34 (one month ago) Permalink

he's gotten worse every year since 2015 but it also seems like he figures out ways to get around getting worse

contreras' offense has looked better in spring training too, which is a good sign

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 20:43 (one month ago) Permalink

if his offense is good that'll be a bonus, he's a very good defensive catcher as-is.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 21:29 (one month ago) Permalink

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/brewers-rumors-craig-kimbrel-talks.html

if the brewers get him, they will have hader, knebel, jeffress, and kimbrel. wow.

also, not that anyone cares but i would have to switch my second favorite NL central team designation elsewhere because i can't stand kimbrel's dumbass hanging arm monster thing

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:40 (one month ago) Permalink

i have no idea who is going to win the division. will probably wait until the deadline of the poll, just in case last minute additions (like kimbrel) swing the balance

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:42 (one month ago) Permalink

Cardinals lineup adding Goldschmidt looks pretty impressive. I like picking up Wieters to be the backup catcher too as I think part time duty seems to bring back the bat for some veteran catchers. If Yady actually lets them take him out of the lineup, it could be good for both of them. Cardinals pitching isn't quite as impressive, but it does have room to improve in 2019 too.

Cubs won 95 last year and had kind of middling years out of quite a few players. Pitching staff is older and I would think could be worse, but they still have good depth and could deal for a couple guys too.

Brewers seemed to have everything go right last year. It will be interesting to see if they fall back or hold up to last year. I kinda feel like they will fall back a bit.

Pirates are better than they might seem on first glance. They should/could have the best rotation in the division, but then they held pat on improving the club in any means. Things go well with the young guys, they could be a .500 team I would figure. Kind of a push.

Reds with the trades have some interesting players playing for contracts including Puig. They should be like a bunch of Cincy teams in that they score runs like a beer league softball team and have pretty sxxt starting pitching. They have added some arms that should help the rotation, but I'm a Reds fan and a pessimist. Sonny Gray is already fighting a bad back. I do think the bullpen could be good and has some depth, so they could win some games with softball scores.

I'd bet my 2 bucks on the Cardinals to win the division, but the NLC should be very competitive as it often is.

earlnash, Thursday, 21 March 2019 18:29 (one month ago) Permalink

Huh Ian Happ starting the season in AAA

na (NA), Sunday, 24 March 2019 00:34 (four weeks ago) Permalink

I'm glad Jimenez is not on this Cubs roster.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 24 March 2019 03:50 (four weeks ago) Permalink

I'd have to think it is just that Ian Happ has options and they are still ridiculously deep in some places. Seemed that Happ would eventually end up the replacement for Zobrist. Got to think Happ would be in the bigs on a bunch of other clubs and some clubs might inquire upon him.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:07 (four weeks ago) Permalink

i really hope this predictatron isn't right but i'm a little worried about the possibility that andrew miller is the greg holland of 2019

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:09 (four weeks ago) Permalink

Scooter Gennette is out 8-12 weeks with a hammy. Looks like Reds are going to use Jose Iglesias at short and move Jose Peraza back to second at least to start the season.

Nick Senzel heading to AAA to keep playing CF as Scott Schebler has won the starting job there for now. Senzel was probably going to go down anyway so that the Reds could get the 'bonus year' and most likely bring him up in May. Got to wonder if Senzel might be playing some 2b, as he played that at times in college and minors.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:28 (four weeks ago) Permalink

didn't know senzel could play CF! (or can he?)

i have nothing to back this up with, but it seems like there are more players these days who can legitimately play a decent OF and IF. in early zobrist days it seemed more unusual?

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:33 (four weeks ago) Permalink

Senzel did some winter ball work in CF and has prepped for it all spring.

Talk was that Puig might see some time in center too, it's not an ideal situation and probably will get defensively exploited in some of the bigger parks. You will get more offense instead of Billy Hamilton, but you will have a number of extra base hits drop in without him.

I think being able to play more positions at least to a certain level of competency is still a valid way to have an extended playing career.

I think Andrew Miller was a much better pitcher than Holland over all career, but it's hard to bet on any reliever at age 33 as it is such a boom/bust proposition. For every reliever that fails, you have another reliever seem to bounce back and be productive again after some time of either being injured and/or ineffective. And at 33, they could just be done at any time.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:47 (four weeks ago) Permalink

relievers are indeed a crapshoot. it'd be nice if andrew miller could manage to be at least league average, though, rather than single-handedly blowing a handful of games over the course of a month like holland did last year

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:56 (four weeks ago) Permalink

Corey Knebel potentially needing Tommy John really sucks

frogbs, Monday, 25 March 2019 04:09 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 00:01 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Hendricks extension with #Cubs is four years, $55.595M, according to a source. Includes club option for fifth season as well.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 26, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 17:51 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Wednesday, 27 March 2019 00:01 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Brewers did better than i would have expected

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 04:07 (three weeks ago) Permalink

they won the division last year and have only gotten better on paper

na (NA), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:04 (three weeks ago) Permalink

i picked Brew-haas

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:10 (three weeks ago) Permalink

goldschmidt will have a chance at a 4th HR in the top of the next inning

Update:
Home run #3: 106.4 mph https://t.co/HJKbE4WAZ7

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) March 30, 2019

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:32 (three weeks ago) Permalink

how many more years y'all got him for

frogbs, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:34 (three weeks ago) Permalink

for all the years

dan maclaughlin keeps saying "you are going to love him saint louis! you are gonna LOVE him!"

he did it after 2 home runs in Spring Training, and predictatronably he did it after his first regular season HR

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:37 (three weeks ago) Permalink

i just saw someone say that Yelich has a 42% HR/FB rate in Miller Park. is that right?!

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:38 (three weeks ago) Permalink

lol brewers just IBB'd goldschmidt

down 5-9 in the 9th. i get it, but

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (three weeks ago) Permalink

i thought the brewers were cool

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (three weeks ago) Permalink

Maclaughlin just said “folks you’re gonna love him” as it went to the post-game crew

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:54 (three weeks ago) Permalink

christian yelich is on fire

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 23:24 (three weeks ago) Permalink

*shakes fist*

YELIIIIIICH

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:27 (three weeks ago) Permalink

This might have been the greatest trade in Milwaukee Brewers history

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:28 (three weeks ago) Permalink

only other players to HR in first 4 games:

Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis and Trevor Story.

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:33 (three weeks ago) Permalink

he's been absolutely on fire since like...august 2018?

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:34 (three weeks ago) Permalink

And a walk-off double...He's obviously already clinched another MVP.

clemenza, Sunday, 31 March 2019 21:26 (three weeks ago) Permalink

On base all 5 times

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 22:16 (three weeks ago) Permalink

lolcubs

mookieproof, Sunday, 31 March 2019 23:55 (three weeks ago) Permalink

I don't remember the STL announcers being as annoying/repetitive as they are on the call for the Goldschmidt homers.

Michael F Gill, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:39 (two weeks ago) Permalink

i am going to LOVE him in st louis!

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:53 (two weeks ago) Permalink

you guys are REALLY not gonna make team threads? so weird

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 April 2019 03:10 (two weeks ago) Permalink

in this age of robot umpires, all sense of boundary has been erased and we just mingle around to different food stands, watching baseball

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 03:43 (two weeks ago) Permalink

cubs scored 28 runs in the rangers series and still went 1-2

na (NA), Monday, 1 April 2019 14:43 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Opposite: Jays held the Tigers to 6 runs in 4 games (only 3 runs in the regulation 36 innings) and went 2-2.

clemenza, Monday, 1 April 2019 16:37 (two weeks ago) Permalink

33 pitches in the first for waino; 14 of them strikes : /

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 17:39 (two weeks ago) Permalink

yadi is playing 3B

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 21:59 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Says something for the Reds to give up two weekend home games soon against the Cardinals to play in Mexico. I do hope they break out the 'Los Rojos' uniforms they used last year.

earlnash, Monday, 1 April 2019 23:48 (two weeks ago) Permalink

With the injury to Hunter Greene, it just ads to the bad luck and ineptitude the Reds have had developing pitching. Reds have pretty bad luck drafting and developing starting pitching for decades, even just average ones.

They had one short window when they had Cueto, Bailey and Mike Leake (who was drafted and went straight to the big leagues) and other than that Brett Tomko (who was traded for Griffey) and not all that hot going back to the late 90s. I think the next best self drafted and developed starter by the Reds you have to go back to Tom Browning in the 80s.

There cannot be that many clubs that have done worse and this is the primary reason the Reds have been mostly terrible for 25+ years.

earlnash, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 22:19 (two weeks ago) Permalink

I picked those four guys as they had at least had a couple seasons as a league average starter. Still that is only 4 starting pitchers in like 30 years developed out of the draft! Not good.

earlnash, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 22:35 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Freddy Peralta today: 8 IP, 11 K, 0 BB. not bad

frogbs, Wednesday, 3 April 2019 18:50 (two weeks ago) Permalink

fire joe morgan maddon

mookieproof, Friday, 5 April 2019 02:55 (two weeks ago) Permalink

Reds slow start has to be causing some grumbles already in the front office and fan base, especially with FC Cincy absolutely packing the joint everytime they play and the Reds drawing like the Dayton Dragons.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2019/04/02/reds-set-new-low-attendance-record-great-american-ball-park/3339552002/

earlnash, Sunday, 7 April 2019 12:07 (two weeks ago) Permalink

to be fair, the dayton dragons have sold out every single home game for like 20 years

mookieproof, Sunday, 7 April 2019 18:16 (two weeks ago) Permalink

haha, yeah! i went to a game there once, it was excellent

Karl Malone, Sunday, 7 April 2019 18:19 (two weeks ago) Permalink

holy shit, there was a season highlight by bader just now, i'll try to post a clip when i see one. he played a machado hit to deep CF off the wall so perfectly, it was incredible. he grabbed it off the bounce with one fluid motion from glove to the throw, which was a perfect strong throw to 2B. the play would have been close, but no one was there to make it (should have been paul dejong but he wasn't covering because 99.999% of the time there's no chance to make that play in the first place.

Karl Malone, Sunday, 7 April 2019 18:28 (two weeks ago) Permalink

yadi just passed curt flood and ken boyer for 8th place in career hits for the Cardinals.
some future Yadi trivia: wIth another 254 hits, he’ll pass Rogers Hornsby for 3rd all-time for the Cardinals in hits, with 2111. Could happen as early as late-2020 season, or early 2021 season.

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Sunday, 7 April 2019 19:41 (two weeks ago) Permalink

If this were a renaissance painting what would it be called? pic.twitter.com/EroGuK7W69

— Sean Lahman (@seanlahman) April 7, 2019

Andy K, Sunday, 7 April 2019 19:55 (two weeks ago) Permalink

is that clint hurdle trying to hold back puig? smh

mookieproof, Sunday, 7 April 2019 19:58 (two weeks ago) Permalink

One thing lost in the melee was that towering shot Josh Bell hit to center yesterday. That was a heck of a blast.

Derek Dietrich seems like a pretty nice waiver pickup for nothing, as it does seem he can hit a bit and at least stand in a few positions ok with a glove.

earlnash, Monday, 8 April 2019 16:03 (one week ago) Permalink

“Everybody In” includes Cubs limited partner Betsy DeVos. pic.twitter.com/NUbhw7oVSy

— Paul Sullivan (@PWSullivan) April 8, 2019

mookieproof, Monday, 8 April 2019 19:13 (one week ago) Permalink

2-3x a year I put a Cards game on mlb.tv and say "CHRIST, IT'S McCARVER" before switching feeds.

KM, is Fowler going to lose his starting job? Need to know for the reverse fantasy team.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 April 2019 02:41 (one week ago) Permalink

he should lose it, but he probably won't fully lose it until May. It's too bad, because even the version of Jose Martinez that isn't hitting well is probably better overall than Fowler (even though he's somehow even worse at fielding than Fowler), and if Tyler O'Neill ever gets a chance to figure out how to not strikeout 35% of the time he could be very good. but he's a veteran and everyone likes him and he has two years left on his contract, so. today on the broadcast, the announcers enthused about how fowler has been unlucky, and how he has the 3rd highest line drive rate in MLB at the moment. so people are looking for reasons to keep him in. if he manages to provide even a brief glimpse of a good string of at bats, he'll buy himself another month or two

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 9 April 2019 02:47 (one week ago) Permalink

i feel bad for fowler, he seems like a good guy and he had to deal with so much bullshit when he came over the the cardinals

na (NA), Tuesday, 9 April 2019 14:49 (one week ago) Permalink

cardinals are extending matt carpenter ('s contract)

mookieproof, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 19:59 (one week ago) Permalink

Carpenter is solid, be handy if the DH were to happen in 2020-21.

earlnash, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 22:05 (one week ago) Permalink

Mythical NL cardinals DH spot is reserved for J. Martinez, imo

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Thursday, 11 April 2019 01:06 (one week ago) Permalink

Trevor Richards threw a really nice game for the Fish tonight until they lost it on a couple of Great American bonus HRs in the bottom of the 8th for the Reds.

earlnash, Thursday, 11 April 2019 01:46 (one week ago) Permalink

what a shocking development

Tyler Glasnow in Pittsburgh: 5.79 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 71 ERA+
Tyler Glasnow in Tampa Bay: 3.34 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 123 ERA+ pic.twitter.com/cGeEJSe0hh

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) April 11, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 11 April 2019 21:56 (one week ago) Permalink

as he intended, he made the highlight reel

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Sunday, 14 April 2019 14:41 (one week ago) Permalink

Reds had an outfield of Matt Kemp in left, future first baseman Jesse Winker in CF and Puig in right. That has to be one of the slowest/worst coverage combos in left and center in the league. Winker is SLOW and cumbersome. Dude is like young Kent Hrbek.

earlnash, Sunday, 14 April 2019 19:21 (one week ago) Permalink

I was wondering why Puig was trending right now. I guess he needs that bobblehead money.

This piece on him on the LA Times today is pretty good:

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-yasiel-puig-dodgers-legacy-reds-20190414-story.html

It says a lot about him that he was so reckless while with the Dodgers and has recently said he wasn't trying hard during his time there, whereas now with the Reds he is.

John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt, Sunday, 14 April 2019 20:34 (one week ago) Permalink

Red's running out a bizarro Spring Training split lineup tonight against Kershaw.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4N9-PSW4AEoyF_.jpg:large

earlnash, Monday, 15 April 2019 23:24 (six days ago) Permalink

6 RBIs for Yelich already

frogbs, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 02:24 (five days ago) Permalink

6 of his 7 HRs vs the Cardinals this year, just brutal

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 16 April 2019 02:44 (five days ago) Permalink

well, Goldy's got 5 vs. the Brewers :)

frogbs, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 02:52 (five days ago) Permalink

or maybe 4. the bum

frogbs, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 02:53 (five days ago) Permalink

lmao what

frogbs, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 03:15 (five days ago) Permalink

jeeeeeezus

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 16 April 2019 03:15 (five days ago) Permalink

Red's running out a bizarro Spring Training split lineup tonight against Kershaw.

― earlnash, Monday, April 15, 2019 4:24 PM (four hours ago)

Puig took Kershaw into the cheap seats in his first at-bat back at Dodger Stadium.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 16 April 2019 03:35 (five days ago) Permalink

And again

frogbs, Wednesday, 17 April 2019 01:47 (four days ago) Permalink

he's had a HR in each of the last 7 games vs. st louis

frogbs, Wednesday, 17 April 2019 01:59 (four days ago) Permalink

i don't know if any other player has singlehandedly ruined the cardinals so much over such a length of time

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 17 April 2019 02:04 (four days ago) Permalink

https://i.imgur.com/GxkHEme.png

early season silliness

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Thursday, 18 April 2019 05:05 (three days ago) Permalink

The run differential is wacky. Reds definitely left two potential wins on the table in LA this week.

earlnash, Thursday, 18 April 2019 22:01 (three days ago) Permalink

Your 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates, tied for 1st

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Friday, 19 April 2019 17:38 (two days ago) Permalink

Now 19 games into the season, the Cardinals are still waiting for a starting pitcher to record a seventh-inning out. In fact, they’re only the third team since 1908 -- joining the 1995 Padres and 2018 Cubs -- to go this deep into a season without a starter going longer than six innings.

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Saturday, 20 April 2019 15:51 (yesterday) Permalink

Mikolas into the 7th, KM, I hope you're happy!

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 20 April 2019 20:31 (yesterday) Permalink

I have to admit I am pretty happy

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Saturday, 20 April 2019 21:18 (yesterday) Permalink

Machado shows a sense of humor here.

https://www.facebook.com/Reds/videos/864492680562546/

earlnash, Sunday, 21 April 2019 01:48 (seventeen hours ago) Permalink

two more HRs for Yelich today, he's on pace for 100

frogbs, Sunday, 21 April 2019 04:25 (fourteen hours ago) Permalink

i’m told the record for april homers is 14, shared by a-rod and prince albert

yelich has 13 on the 20th

mookieproof, Sunday, 21 April 2019 06:46 (twelve hours ago) Permalink

He has a great chance at the RBI records for April (35) and through-end-of-April (36)--both Juan Gonzalez.

clemenza, Sunday, 21 April 2019 12:42 (six hours ago) Permalink

Plus he has three more games against be cardinals in April. He’s got this thing pretty much wrapped up

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Sunday, 21 April 2019 12:46 (six hours ago) Permalink

The slow curve that Yelich hit for the second home run was a pretty good pitch. Even if he was sitting on Ryu to bring the curve on the first pitch, it was right on his hands and Yelich just swatted it.

earlnash, Sunday, 21 April 2019 16:22 (two hours ago) Permalink

I looked at his game logs from last year, and he started his epic finish as early as July 8. Since then, coming up on 100 games:

G – 96
AB – 380
H – 139
2B – 26
3B – 5
HR – 38
R – 87
RBI – 106
BB – 52
BA –.366
OBP – .446
SLG – .761

clemenza, Sunday, 21 April 2019 16:48 (two hours ago) Permalink


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