NL CENTRAL PREDICTATRON 2019

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who will win the division

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Chicago Cubs 4
Milwaukee Brewers 3
St. Louis Cardinals 2
Cincinnati Reds 0
Pittsburgh Pirates 0


na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (nine months ago) link

also feel free to discuss any of the division teams in here unless you really want to start a team-specific thread

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:42 (nine months ago) link

i have no idea who's going to win the division. my instinctual guess is the cardinals.

i am predicting the cubs offense will rebound from last year but i do not trust any of their pitching beyond hendricks

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 19:53 (nine months ago) link

expecting lester to really fall off a cliff this year, which is not something one often thinks of 18-game winners

i think there's a good chance the pirates finish last, and in a way, i hope they do

mookieproof, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:26 (nine months ago) link

the cubs' pitching is potentially very good but also potentially a total disaster. Lester, Darvish, and Hamels all have the ability to strike out 200 and win 18 games, and also be sloppy, ineffective, and/or injured for the majority of the year.

Bote has been hitting the ball well this spring and taking a ton of walks. Same for Schwarber. I'm anticipating a major year from Bryant and a return to the slightly better stats from previous years for Rizzo. I think they'll be in it til the end, but a division title might be a stretch.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:33 (nine months ago) link

Lester has always felt like a guy who has been balancing on the edge of a knife; those worrying walk numbers and disastrous starts have always been there, but usually he's won despite the former and the latter have been infrequent. I agree he could fall off that cliff.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 20:34 (nine months ago) link

he's gotten worse every year since 2015 but it also seems like he figures out ways to get around getting worse

contreras' offense has looked better in spring training too, which is a good sign

na (NA), Friday, 15 March 2019 20:43 (nine months ago) link

if his offense is good that'll be a bonus, he's a very good defensive catcher as-is.

omar little, Friday, 15 March 2019 21:29 (nine months ago) link

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/brewers-rumors-craig-kimbrel-talks.html

if the brewers get him, they will have hader, knebel, jeffress, and kimbrel. wow.

also, not that anyone cares but i would have to switch my second favorite NL central team designation elsewhere because i can't stand kimbrel's dumbass hanging arm monster thing

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:40 (eight months ago) link

i have no idea who is going to win the division. will probably wait until the deadline of the poll, just in case last minute additions (like kimbrel) swing the balance

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 20 March 2019 02:42 (eight months ago) link

Cardinals lineup adding Goldschmidt looks pretty impressive. I like picking up Wieters to be the backup catcher too as I think part time duty seems to bring back the bat for some veteran catchers. If Yady actually lets them take him out of the lineup, it could be good for both of them. Cardinals pitching isn't quite as impressive, but it does have room to improve in 2019 too.

Cubs won 95 last year and had kind of middling years out of quite a few players. Pitching staff is older and I would think could be worse, but they still have good depth and could deal for a couple guys too.

Brewers seemed to have everything go right last year. It will be interesting to see if they fall back or hold up to last year. I kinda feel like they will fall back a bit.

Pirates are better than they might seem on first glance. They should/could have the best rotation in the division, but then they held pat on improving the club in any means. Things go well with the young guys, they could be a .500 team I would figure. Kind of a push.

Reds with the trades have some interesting players playing for contracts including Puig. They should be like a bunch of Cincy teams in that they score runs like a beer league softball team and have pretty sxxt starting pitching. They have added some arms that should help the rotation, but I'm a Reds fan and a pessimist. Sonny Gray is already fighting a bad back. I do think the bullpen could be good and has some depth, so they could win some games with softball scores.

I'd bet my 2 bucks on the Cardinals to win the division, but the NLC should be very competitive as it often is.

earlnash, Thursday, 21 March 2019 18:29 (eight months ago) link

Huh Ian Happ starting the season in AAA

na (NA), Sunday, 24 March 2019 00:34 (eight months ago) link

I'm glad Jimenez is not on this Cubs roster.

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 24 March 2019 03:50 (eight months ago) link

I'd have to think it is just that Ian Happ has options and they are still ridiculously deep in some places. Seemed that Happ would eventually end up the replacement for Zobrist. Got to think Happ would be in the bigs on a bunch of other clubs and some clubs might inquire upon him.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:07 (eight months ago) link

i really hope this predictatron isn't right but i'm a little worried about the possibility that andrew miller is the greg holland of 2019

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:09 (eight months ago) link

Scooter Gennette is out 8-12 weeks with a hammy. Looks like Reds are going to use Jose Iglesias at short and move Jose Peraza back to second at least to start the season.

Nick Senzel heading to AAA to keep playing CF as Scott Schebler has won the starting job there for now. Senzel was probably going to go down anyway so that the Reds could get the 'bonus year' and most likely bring him up in May. Got to wonder if Senzel might be playing some 2b, as he played that at times in college and minors.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:28 (eight months ago) link

didn't know senzel could play CF! (or can he?)

i have nothing to back this up with, but it seems like there are more players these days who can legitimately play a decent OF and IF. in early zobrist days it seemed more unusual?

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:33 (eight months ago) link

Senzel did some winter ball work in CF and has prepped for it all spring.

Talk was that Puig might see some time in center too, it's not an ideal situation and probably will get defensively exploited in some of the bigger parks. You will get more offense instead of Billy Hamilton, but you will have a number of extra base hits drop in without him.

I think being able to play more positions at least to a certain level of competency is still a valid way to have an extended playing career.

I think Andrew Miller was a much better pitcher than Holland over all career, but it's hard to bet on any reliever at age 33 as it is such a boom/bust proposition. For every reliever that fails, you have another reliever seem to bounce back and be productive again after some time of either being injured and/or ineffective. And at 33, they could just be done at any time.

earlnash, Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:47 (eight months ago) link

relievers are indeed a crapshoot. it'd be nice if andrew miller could manage to be at least league average, though, rather than single-handedly blowing a handful of games over the course of a month like holland did last year

but i'm there are fuckups (Karl Malone), Sunday, 24 March 2019 16:56 (eight months ago) link

Corey Knebel potentially needing Tommy John really sucks

frogbs, Monday, 25 March 2019 04:09 (eight months ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 00:01 (eight months ago) link

Hendricks extension with #Cubs is four years, $55.595M, according to a source. Includes club option for fifth season as well.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 26, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 17:51 (eight months ago) link

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Wednesday, 27 March 2019 00:01 (eight months ago) link

Brewers did better than i would have expected

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 04:07 (eight months ago) link

they won the division last year and have only gotten better on paper

na (NA), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:04 (eight months ago) link

i picked Brew-haas

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 March 2019 14:10 (eight months ago) link

goldschmidt will have a chance at a 4th HR in the top of the next inning

Update:
Home run #3: 106.4 mph https://t.co/HJKbE4WAZ7

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) March 30, 2019

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:32 (eight months ago) link

how many more years y'all got him for

frogbs, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:34 (eight months ago) link

for all the years

dan maclaughlin keeps saying "you are going to love him saint louis! you are gonna LOVE him!"

he did it after 2 home runs in Spring Training, and predictatronably he did it after his first regular season HR

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:37 (eight months ago) link

i just saw someone say that Yelich has a 42% HR/FB rate in Miller Park. is that right?!

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:38 (eight months ago) link

lol brewers just IBB'd goldschmidt

down 5-9 in the 9th. i get it, but

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (eight months ago) link

i thought the brewers were cool

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:41 (eight months ago) link

Maclaughlin just said “folks you’re gonna love him” as it went to the post-game crew

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 03:54 (eight months ago) link

christian yelich is on fire

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 March 2019 23:24 (eight months ago) link

*shakes fist*

YELIIIIIICH

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:27 (eight months ago) link

This might have been the greatest trade in Milwaukee Brewers history

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:28 (eight months ago) link

only other players to HR in first 4 games:

Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis and Trevor Story.

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:33 (eight months ago) link

he's been absolutely on fire since like...august 2018?

Karl Malone, Sunday, 31 March 2019 18:34 (eight months ago) link

And a walk-off double...He's obviously already clinched another MVP.

clemenza, Sunday, 31 March 2019 21:26 (eight months ago) link

On base all 5 times

frogbs, Sunday, 31 March 2019 22:16 (eight months ago) link

lolcubs

mookieproof, Sunday, 31 March 2019 23:55 (eight months ago) link

I don't remember the STL announcers being as annoying/repetitive as they are on the call for the Goldschmidt homers.

Michael F Gill, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:39 (eight months ago) link

i am going to LOVE him in st louis!

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 02:53 (eight months ago) link

you guys are REALLY not gonna make team threads? so weird

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 April 2019 03:10 (eight months ago) link

in this age of robot umpires, all sense of boundary has been erased and we just mingle around to different food stands, watching baseball

Karl Malone, Monday, 1 April 2019 03:43 (eight months ago) link

cubs scored 28 runs in the rangers series and still went 1-2

na (NA), Monday, 1 April 2019 14:43 (eight months ago) link

Opposite: Jays held the Tigers to 6 runs in 4 games (only 3 runs in the regulation 36 innings) and went 2-2.

clemenza, Monday, 1 April 2019 16:37 (eight months ago) link

33 pitches in the first for waino; 14 of them strikes : /

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 17:39 (eight months ago) link

yadi is playing 3B

mookieproof, Monday, 1 April 2019 21:59 (eight months ago) link

Says something for the Reds to give up two weekend home games soon against the Cardinals to play in Mexico. I do hope they break out the 'Los Rojos' uniforms they used last year.

earlnash, Monday, 1 April 2019 23:48 (eight months ago) link

the double-a texas league covers a big geographical area and only has eight teams, so division rivals play each other 30 times a year. it's kinda crazy

mookieproof, Friday, 27 September 2019 02:23 (two months ago) link

Gotta say I enjoyed the division format for threads

Van Horn Street, Friday, 27 September 2019 18:13 (two months ago) link

same

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Friday, 27 September 2019 18:15 (two months ago) link

only division where we have fans of each team?

mookieproof, Friday, 27 September 2019 18:17 (two months ago) link

i will make individual threads for every team not in this division next year

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 27 September 2019 18:23 (two months ago) link

I think Jays and Mets can have individual threads because they have an outsized # of fans on ilx.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 27 September 2019 18:25 (two months ago) link

cubs need a win this weekend to beat their notorious pecota projection

mookieproof, Friday, 27 September 2019 18:51 (two months ago) link

With Cubs out, Maddon isn't playing his "A" lineup in St. Louis, so @Brewers can start their bitching now: "Of course they're going to bitch, and I get it, but quite frankly, there are certain things I really don't give a shit about, and that would be one of them."

— Paul Sullivan (@PWSullivan) September 26, 2019

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Friday, 27 September 2019 23:17 (two months ago) link

maddon otm

anyway his 'A' lineup last won a game 10 days ago, so

mookieproof, Friday, 27 September 2019 23:22 (two months ago) link

I can sense he's on his way to Queens

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 27 September 2019 23:29 (two months ago) link

nah, mets are too cheap. i'm thinking san diego

mookieproof, Friday, 27 September 2019 23:48 (two months ago) link

wonderful catch by almora just now! that was the second time he robbed yadi tonight (first would have been a double, at the top of the wall).

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Saturday, 28 September 2019 01:38 (two months ago) link

oooooooof what a double finish
limping near the finish line

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Sunday, 29 September 2019 03:10 (two months ago) link

Happy retirement to Cincinnati Reds HOF announcer Marty Brennaman! I will long treasure his response to a fan's question about his greatest fear from a 2014 "Ask Marty!" segment! pic.twitter.com/2ccu8nvSXs

— ℑ 𝔇𝔬𝔫'𝔱 𝔅𝔩𝔞𝔪𝔢 𝔜𝔬𝔲 (@NickPinkerton) September 27, 2019

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 29 September 2019 06:03 (two months ago) link

Hurdle out

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 29 September 2019 18:54 (two months ago) link

idg why you’d fire someone hours before the final game

mookieproof, Sunday, 29 September 2019 19:24 (two months ago) link

Cubs don't appear up to the task

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 29 September 2019 19:51 (two months ago) link

Don’t get rid of Maddon imo

Great opportunity for Mets and Giants

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 29 September 2019 21:30 (two months ago) link

https://i.imgur.com/iFV9qJF.jpg

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Sunday, 29 September 2019 23:14 (two months ago) link

i'm 98% sure i'd still say this if the cardinals hadn't ended up taking it, but this was a good season to follow the NL Central! no team ran away with it, with 3 teams with a good shot all the way to end. even the pirates were in first place as of late april, and the reds could be dangerous soon.

https://i.imgur.com/HqKF3O4.png

Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Sunday, 29 September 2019 23:20 (two months ago) link

NL central titles since neal huntington took over as general manager of the pirates:

STL 5
CHC 3
CIN 2
MIL 2

mookieproof, Monday, 30 September 2019 00:00 (two months ago) link

Is Huntington the real problem? From a distance it looks like no matter what the FO does, the Pirates won’t achieve anything with Nutting

Van Horn Street, Monday, 30 September 2019 01:22 (two months ago) link

that is probably true, but his record of trading and player development is pretty piss poor as well

mookieproof, Monday, 30 September 2019 01:29 (two months ago) link

Jesus the Mets being -4 despite deGrom

Van Horn Street, Monday, 30 September 2019 02:34 (two months ago) link

well, degrom was drafted before 2012. but still

mookieproof, Monday, 30 September 2019 04:05 (two months ago) link

Ha yes, okay.

Forgot the Archer trade. I do think it’s a fireable offense.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 30 September 2019 18:37 (two months ago) link

The #Pirates have dismissed pitching coach Ray Searage and bench coach Tom Prince.

All the other coaches from manager Clint Hurdle's staff "are candidates to remain on the big league staff pending the conclusion of the
managerial and coaching staff hiring process," per the team

— Rob Biertempfel (@RobBiertempfel) October 3, 2019

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 3 October 2019 20:20 (two months ago) link

i saw someone suggesting fabled gritty pittsburgh native DON KELLY -- currently the astros' 1B coach -- for manager

mookieproof, Thursday, 3 October 2019 20:23 (two months ago) link

One neat factoid I came across in a career retrospective of Marty Brennamen's broadcast career was that he did the famous Christian Laettner shot for Duke against UK on the radio. I knew that Marty was a color announcer for UK basketball also for a few years in the 70s, but did not know or remember him doing college basketball tournament games on the radio that late.

earlnash, Friday, 11 October 2019 01:36 (two months ago) link

david ross is the new cubs manager

pirates have fired team president frank coonelly

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 14:22 (one month ago) link

It sucks he won't be on ESPN anymore.

reggae mike love (polyphonic), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 17:43 (one month ago) link

what do we think about Ross on the Cubs? felt a little out of left field to me, but i don't follow them too closely.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 17:47 (one month ago) link

Apparently everyone in baseball loves Ross. Definitely a cubs legend due to 2016 WS heroics. He was ok as a broadcaster/analyst, I guess.

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 17:51 (one month ago) link

Honestly, feels like the manager’s main impact on games is to just avoid doing incredibly dumb and unnecessary stuff. The rest is just serving as a figurehead for people like me to yell at when they’re frustrated at the organization for not better decisions years ago

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 17:55 (one month ago) link

supposedly maddon was thought (by the cubs) to be too much of a players' coach? it kinda seems like ross would be as well, especially when dealing with so many former teammates, but maybe not. that's the only drawback i can think of

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 17:57 (one month ago) link

there had been talks of the cubs possibly trading bryant or baez or contreras (or...) and i wonder if this hiring makes shedding any of those core players from the 2016 world series team less likely

na (NA), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 18:59 (one month ago) link

i'd be surprised if it made any difference -- theo et al reserve that power for themselves and seem sufficiently unsentimental.

apparently kris bryant's service-time grievance is finally to be ruled on this week; if bryant wins, he'll become a free agent after next season.

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 19:16 (one month ago) link

hard to imagine Ross being a better manager than Maddon but I agree with y'all, it's probably not gonna make much of a difference. I mean the Brewers hire of Counsell worked out pretty well and that was someone I could easily see being too much of an "old-school baseball" sort of guy

frogbs, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 19:19 (one month ago) link

we joked about mathenaging -- and matheny did not, in fact, seem very good at managing his bullpen or making strategic decisions -- but for me the fact that he played favorites and let assholes like bud norris shit on rookies daily is much more damaging.

playing basically every day for six months while travelling all over the continent is pretty hard, and even more so when you hate your boss or don't get along with your co-workers. apart from building the strategy of using relievers based on leverage rather than inning, counsell had to sell the idea to players who'd been doing it differently their entire lives. he's able to do that because he's a good manager of people, and i imagine ross is as well.

(joe torre got a lot of shit for things like personally destroying scott proctor's right arm, but the fact that he was able to get his highly paid yankees teams to perform so consistently well is v. impressive to me. i mean, the a-rod/jeter thing, gary sheffield, clemens -- that's a lot of ego to massage.)

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 19:45 (one month ago) link

rumor has it that pirates gm neal huntington will also be canned, which is unusual because he has two years left on his contract and the team is so fucking cheap

mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 21:56 (one month ago) link

attn karl

https://www.mlb.com/news/memories-of-david-freese-2011-world-series

mookieproof, Friday, 25 October 2019 15:59 (one month ago) link

thank you, i didn't see that! the will leitch story (about the story) is legendary

It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Saturday, 26 October 2019 02:57 (one month ago) link

The Pirates spelled their interim GM’s name incorrectly in their press release. It is Kevan Graves.

— Stephen J. Nesbitt (@stephenjnesbitt) October 28, 2019

mookieproof, Monday, 28 October 2019 14:21 (one month ago) link

three weeks pass...

“It’s back to the future,” Mark Attanasio says. Here is the new primary Brewers logo. pic.twitter.com/Tw4pDAaWIx

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) November 19, 2019

Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 00:42 (three weeks ago) link

Awesome

All the gear I have has that logo anyway so no problem for me

frogbs, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 01:02 (three weeks ago) link

Love the old logo - not a fan of the font.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 03:25 (three weeks ago) link

same

mookieproof, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 05:29 (three weeks ago) link

Lots of people today are pointing out something I missed: The Brewers' new alternate road uni looks a lot like a Wolf Cub Scout uniform. pic.twitter.com/ZaHnOBXuvH

— Paul Lukas (@UniWatch) November 19, 2019

mookieproof, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:37 (three weeks ago) link

i quit on the same day i got my webelos badge

Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 17:12 (three weeks ago) link


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