JUAN SOTO seems like a big deal

ie

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/juan-soto-looks-like-the-best-teenage-hitter-in-history/

but does he have a blog

Tweets will surface from when he was 8.

oh shit, didn't see that morbius had already posted the link (i've been traveling the last few days). still, came here to post this:

https://i.imgur.com/63faZ5r.png?1

elite plate discipline from a teenager is just amazing.

this is also pretty impressive:

https://i.imgur.com/xNWGTk8.png?1

Juan Soto has seven walks after falling behind in the count 1-and-2. Dee Gordon has seven walks

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) August 6, 2018

according to b-ref, his nickname is 'childish bambino'

Age fraud hasn’t been a thing in Latin America in nearly a decade. But then again Joe Simpson is stuck in the past, so it’s not a surprise that he proffers this sort of garbage. Ignore it.

Juan Soto is 19. Period. Full stop. And he’s doing things the game never has seen before. https://t.co/V5iWMkkleF

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 8, 2018

Joe Simpson is the worst.

He really is -- I hope his slo-mo meltdown speeds up and he says something totally fire-able soon.

damn, soto has a really intimidating batting stance. he looks so locked in

Top 10 most Home Runs as a teenager:

1. Tony Conigliaro (Boston) 24
2. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) 22
3. Mel Ott (NY Giants) 19
4. Juan Soto (Washington Nationals) 18 <-Turns 20 October 25, 2018
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. (Seattle) 16
6. Phil Cavarretta (Cubs) 14
7. Mickey Mantle (NY Yankees) 13
8. Ed Kranepool (NY Mets) 12
9. Robin Yount (Milwaukee) 11
10. Harmon Killebrew (Washington Senators) 9

Only one behind Harper now.

Tied with Harper. Will more than likely not break Conigliaro's record, but still an incredible feat.

juan soto hit the roof of the Tokyo Dome tonight, turning a no-doubt home run into an out at the warning track (ground rules, at least in that stadium, allow the ball to remain in play)

that sucks for him, but ultimately is a much better story

They're very close statistically, but pretty sure Acuna will win ROY this week. Soto has a 40-point edge in OBP, Acuna a 35-point SLG advantage, and their BA is even; that makes Soto the more productive hitter, but it'll be viewed as a wash (Acuna's OPS+ is actually a little higher; five fewer GDP, for one thing), and Acuna has more HR and--going by dWAR, anyway--better defense.

James's rundown of last year's rookies:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_rookies_of_2018/

"Acuna ranks a little ahead of Soto because he had almost the same OPS and better defense in a tougher park for a hitter, but in all honesty I think I would choose Soto."

my man bill james otm

acuña deserved the ROY but i think i'm more impressed with soto's season

― mookieproof, Tuesday, November 13, 2018 3:16 PM (two weeks ago)

My first “Juan Soto is good” tweet of the year. Juan Soto is good.

— FantasyRundown.com (@FantasyRundown) March 30, 2019

Best OBP before age-21 (min. 550 PAs):
1. Ted Williams - .436
2. Mel Ott - .414
3. John McGraw - .412
4. Jimmie Foxx - .410
5. Juan Soto - .402https://t.co/mgTtlNrgK5

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) April 18, 2019

20yo Juan Soto's MLB career SLG > 20yo Vlad Jr's career MLB OPS

geez give VGJ more than a week

my brain kept trying to read that acronym as jeff van gundy

future dh

He's now played 162 games:

292/.402/.519 with 31 homers, 107 runs & 107 RBI.

what were Trout's first 162? can someone PlayIndex that?

https://moretalk.wordpress.com/2012/09/15/mike-trout-the-first-162-games/

.309/.374/.531 (accomplished while 2 years older than Soto)

that's a very impressive line from trout, too, considering that his first 40 games (during his rookie 2011) he slashed vajazzled .220/.281/.390

Two homers today. Soto won't come anywhere near Trout's 10.5 WAR in his age-20 season (defense and juiced ball, among other things), but his raw offensive totals in many categories are going to match or surpass Trout's.

Juan Soto (@Nationals) is the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs before turning 21 years old, joining Mel Ott (61) and Tony Conigliaro (56). pic.twitter.com/qjMLcRG8si

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 18, 2019

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

Nats have hit the draft lottery twice in a short time, pretty nice to be able to replace Harper pretty much straight up with perhaps a higher ceiling.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/juan-soto-becomes-first-nl-player-to-hit-30-home-runs-in-a-season-before-age-21-since-frank-robinson/

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

― earlnash, Sunday, August 18, 2019 5:21 PM (two weeks ago)

prescient post

Lifted this from Sports Illustrated:

And because Soto has a Baseball Reference-calculated Wins Above Replacement mark of 5.0 and Acuña is at 4.8, they are, in all likelihood, going to end up on this short list of pairs of players under 22 to share a 5-WAR season:

Donie Bush (6.5) and Tris Speaker (6.3), 1909
Jimmie Foxx (7.9) and Mel Ott (7.4), 1929
Eddie Mathews (8.3) and Mickey Mantle (5.8), 1953
Al Kaline (8.2) and Hank Aaron (6.3), 1955
Frank Robinson (6.6) and Kaline (6.5), 1956
Trout (10.5) and Harper (5.2), 2012
Trout (9.0) and Machado (6.7), 2013

that trout guy was good

That was the premise of the SI piece I took that from: that Acuña/Soto are the new Trout/Harper (acknowledging that the latter is a non-issue now).

Devers (22) has a fWAR of 5.5 (ie, higher than Acuna & Soto)

or wait is it <=22 or <22?

wow that's a very impressive list of HOFers, future HOFers, some guy named Donie Bush, and Bryce Harper.

Per Baseball-Reference, Soto joins Alex Rodriguez, Ruben Sierra and Jose Canseco as the only major-league hitters in the last 50 years to record a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 10-steal season before their age 22 season.

I don't really understand his contract status:

Signed thru 2019, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2022, Earliest Free Agent: 2025

If he's only signed through this season but not eligible for arbitration until 2022, what does that mean for 2020 and 2021?

i'm not sure about the technical/legal background but it's similar for other pre-arb players. soto is definitely under team control through 2022

by "similar" i mean you'll see the same kind of contract status for other pre-arb players

Thanks. Baseball Reference should make that clearer...if they control him until 2022, why not just say "signed through 2021." There's almost an implication of the old reserve-clause system there, where the Nationals can just renew him for whatever they want in 2020/21.

hey clemenza, just noticed that fangraphs has updated their contract summary pages for each team. i don't know what you usually refer to for that kind of information, but to me this is pretty much the easiest and simplest way to get it. here's the page for the nats:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

and here's more info: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/introducing-rosterresource-payroll-pages/

One of the things that makes Juan Soto special is his mature approach at the plate. The Nationals outfielder may not be able to legally buy alcohol in the United States, but he doesn’t just have the discipline of a seasoned vet, he has the discipline of Joey Votto in his prime. A 15 percent walk rate would be good for anyone, but it’s incredible for someone who is younger than OK Computer.

His low chase rate is the primary driver of his ability to draw a walk, but Soto has another strategy he employs. When the count reaches two strikes, Soto crouches down lower to shrink his strike zone.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/9/4/20848679/juan-soto-washington-nationals-two-strike-crouch-robot-umps

Kinda faded a bit over the last 2 weeks of the season, but can now add "clutch postseason heroics" to his CV.

Juan Soto is the second youngest player in postseason history to have a WPA over .500 in a game.

The youngest, Miguel Cabrera, did it in Game 4 of the 2003 NLDS, a series-clinching game but not an elimination one https://t.co/XL00s8G42k pic.twitter.com/kPjbewAa9k

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 2, 2019

<3

https://sports.theonion.com/juan-soto-sheepishly-asks-group-of-nationals-fans-enter-1838887733

so did Miggy or Cobb homer as a WS cleanup hitter under 21?

Youngest to hit a World Series home run: Andruw Jones, 19 years, 180 days; Miguel Cabrera, 20 years, 187 days; Mickey Mantle, 20 years, 352 days; Juan Soto, 20 years, 362 days.

Soto & Jones are the only <20 year olds to hit a HR in their WS debut.

Nats Dominican academy pic.twitter.com/vLIoQLrWF5

— johnny (@dipuglia) October 23, 2019

Happy birthday, Juan Soto!

We will adjust our World Series content accordingly. pic.twitter.com/jAICJ0t14q

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 25, 2019

Watching Juan Soto lash a beautiful oppo homer this afternoon is as good a reason as any to gaze in wonder yet again at his career XBH spray chart. pic.twitter.com/g3RJlP7H6D

— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) February 25, 2020

cardinals broadcast made sure to keep track of how long his home run trot was (25.5 seconds)

iirc last week when someone asked him what his goals for spring training were, he said 'to make the team'

otm

i think he will probably make the team

*crosses fingers*

positive for COVID

After being away from the team for ten days due to a positive COVID-19 test, Juan Soto returned to the Nationals on Saturday and joined the team for a workout at Nats Park. “For me, in my mind, I think it was a [false] positive,” he said. “I’ve been working on it. I tested a bunch of times negative. Following the rules, being in the right spot. I think that’s why I think it’s a [false] positive because I’ve been following the rules. I’ve been really serious with this. It’s out there. But, for me, they can look at me however they want. I’m going to be the same guy.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/juan-soto-rejoins-nationals-nationals-park

Activated from the IL but not in the starting lineup...?

Maybe need a Fernando Tatis Jr. thread to parallel this one (born about two months later).

Go for it, lots of lesser players have dedicated threads.

I'm the guy who jumped the gun on Carlos Correa.

Jumping the Gun: the Carlos Correa Thread

Or you could do a poll like TROUT V. HARPER but throw in Acuña as another option?

I mean...

FREE HUNTER PENCE!!!

yeah but hunter pence is awesome, love that guy.

jose martinez is an honorary hunter pence, to me

Fernando Tatis Jr. is Bringing Joy Back to Baseball

i won't regret this

also considered a "how many seasons will it take for FTJr to surpass james shields in WAR" poll but that just seems mean

2020 OPS
https://i.imgur.com/j2FmMMG.jpg

this year he's no Mike Yastrzemski

nor any other year I hope.

Or you could do a poll like TROUT V. HARPER but throw in Acuña as another option?

And maybe Bo Bichette too. (Okay, I'm cherry-picking after his big night.)

In-depth analysis of his season to date:

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-best-all-around-hitter-2020

"Tatis and Soto aren't just the best young stars in Major League Baseball. They're the best players."

Way too early, and not a real season anyway, but for what it's worth, Baseball Reference has Betts as the best player in baseball right now.

Top of the 3rd: Nats down 0-4 to the Red Sox.

Trea Turner hits a lead off double.

Soto is faced with a radical shift, and surprisingly decides to bunt down the 1B line with Turner running. The pitcher has trouble fielding it, throws it over the 1B's head, Turner scores, Soto takes 2nd on the throw home. Sets up a 3-run response that puts the Nats back into the game.

Highest SLG since 2004 (Bonds) was Yelich last year: .671
Soto is at .800

Soto 2019: 132 strikeouts vs 34 homers
Soto 2020: 13 strikeouts vs 11 homers

From a SI piece: "Among those with at least 1,000 plate appearances prior to their age-22 season, Soto's career OPS through his age-21 season ranks fourth, behind only Ted Williams (1.041), Jimmie Foxx (1.015) and Mel Ott (.986)."

(Which is .967...mlb.com piece, I mean.)

They pulled Soto after going 1-1 today--some things never change--so it looks like he'll win the slash TC. Younger than when Williams did it in '41, so I'm guessing he's the youngest ever.

With a 60-game asterisk

For sure--on top of which, he only played in 75% of his team's games. Still, looking at the list of people who've done this post-1900, it's a pretty imposing group of players. (Sherry Magee and Fred Lynn were about the worst, and they were pretty damn good.)

http://cliffcorcoran.com/2012/09/25/slash-stat-triple-crown-winners/

Juan Soto leading off innings in 2020:
13-for-25
Four doubles
Four homers.
Eight walks.
One hit by pitch.
One strikeout.
For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 14, 2020

Extending Juan Soto… All the Way to Cooperstown

https://i.redd.it/o75iy76dgum61.jpg

Do ZIPS projections usually spit out such metronomic consistency? Those totals are possible--though they would probably make him one of the 10 best hitters ever; rather optimistic--but no fluctuations for injury, off-year, pitcher's years, pandemics, etc. seems highly unlikely.

well, yes. it's a projection, not a forecast -- it's not like they can predict soto will blow out his knee and miss the 2028 season. and of course it's somewhat fantastical, but i wouldn't say jaffe is prone to hyperbole.

the biggest caveat, as mentioned in the article, is that he becomes unplayable in the outfield

I’m surprised he isn’t that good a fielder tbh.
I wonder how often fielding improves over time. I would think not often, but maybe with a guy that young there’s a better chance?

zips accounts for injury at least by projecting fewer and fewer ABs every season, it just doesn't project a random huge injury or anything like that

john sickels of minorleagueball.com used to do crystal ball predictions that i believe were 100% handmade, and he would always have fun with predicting things like that. and then he would have players sign with expansion teams that didn't exist yet or move to the KBO in their last 2-4 years

this is the only super old one i can find, probably pissed off a lot of reds fans at the time
https://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3261/brucestats.JPG

I know you can't predict injury; I was probably thinking more of minor adjustments for the up-and-down nature of a career. I'd have to dig one out, but James used to do occasional career projections in the Abstracts, and I'm pretty sure there was some acknowledgement in his--something built in to however he'd programmed them--that careers don't rise and fall in straight lines. Not a big deal.

clem, it’s based on like a million simulations. it’s not predicting that’s how his career will look exactly, but on average that is the trajectory of a young star’s career. he’ll have a year with 3 WAR and another with 9 instead of the smooth rise and fall, but in the end it evens out

Would love to see a similar table for Acuna.

In the late '80s-early '90s, the Rotisserie League Baseball guys would publish a book every year with fantasy predictions and have a full stat line for each player. Complete BS because none of them were analysts and it went to print in December most likely but it put me on a dark path of doing the same for a few years and of assembling the complete "projected" stats for my entire rotisserie teams each year.

OTOH, my first year of having a solo team in my dad's league was 1990 and I bought Bobby Thigpen and Cecil Fielder at the auction.