JUAN SOTO seems like a big deal

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed

but does he have a blog

rip van wanko, Monday, 6 August 2018 23:15 (four years ago) link

Tweets will surface from when he was 8.

clemenza, Monday, 6 August 2018 23:53 (four years ago) link

oh shit, didn't see that morbius had already posted the link (i've been traveling the last few days). still, came here to post this:


elite plate discipline from a teenager is just amazing.

this is also pretty impressive:


Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 17:27 (four years ago) link

Juan Soto has seven walks after falling behind in the count 1-and-2. Dee Gordon has seven walks

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) August 6, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 19:54 (four years ago) link

according to b-ref, his nickname is 'childish bambino'

mookieproof, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 20:31 (four years ago) link

Age fraud hasn’t been a thing in Latin America in nearly a decade. But then again Joe Simpson is stuck in the past, so it’s not a surprise that he proffers this sort of garbage. Ignore it.

Juan Soto is 19. Period. Full stop. And he’s doing things the game never has seen before. https://t.co/V5iWMkkleF

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 8, 2018

Andy K, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 00:18 (four years ago) link

Joe Simpson is the worst.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:22 (four years ago) link

He really is -- I hope his slo-mo meltdown speeds up and he says something totally fire-able soon.

a shomin-geki poster with some horror elements (WilliamC), Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:35 (four years ago) link

damn, soto has a really intimidating batting stance. he looks so locked in

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 14 August 2018 03:11 (four years ago) link

four weeks pass...

Top 10 most Home Runs as a teenager:

1. Tony Conigliaro (Boston) 24
2. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) 22
3. Mel Ott (NY Giants) 19
4. Juan Soto (Washington Nationals) 18 <-Turns 20 October 25, 2018
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. (Seattle) 16
6. Phil Cavarretta (Cubs) 14
7. Mickey Mantle (NY Yankees) 13
8. Ed Kranepool (NY Mets) 12
9. Robin Yount (Milwaukee) 11
10. Harmon Killebrew (Washington Senators) 9

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 12 September 2018 04:46 (four years ago) link

Only one behind Harper now.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 25 September 2018 01:06 (four years ago) link

Tied with Harper. Will more than likely not break Conigliaro's record, but still an incredible feat.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 30 September 2018 02:40 (four years ago) link

one month passes...

juan soto hit the roof of the Tokyo Dome tonight, turning a no-doubt home run into an out at the warning track (ground rules, at least in that stadium, allow the ball to remain in play)

Karl Malone, Monday, 12 November 2018 04:09 (four years ago) link

that sucks for him, but ultimately is a much better story

Karl Malone, Monday, 12 November 2018 04:10 (four years ago) link

They're very close statistically, but pretty sure Acuna will win ROY this week. Soto has a 40-point edge in OBP, Acuna a 35-point SLG advantage, and their BA is even; that makes Soto the more productive hitter, but it'll be viewed as a wash (Acuna's OPS+ is actually a little higher; five fewer GDP, for one thing), and Acuna has more HR and--going by dWAR, anyway--better defense.

clemenza, Monday, 12 November 2018 12:56 (four years ago) link

two weeks pass...

James's rundown of last year's rookies:


"Acuna ranks a little ahead of Soto because he had almost the same OPS and better defense in a tougher park for a hitter, but in all honesty I think I would choose Soto."

clemenza, Friday, 30 November 2018 13:02 (four years ago) link

my man bill james otm

acuña deserved the ROY but i think i'm more impressed with soto's season

― mookieproof, Tuesday, November 13, 2018 3:16 PM (two weeks ago)

mookieproof, Friday, 30 November 2018 14:09 (four years ago) link

four months pass...

My first “Juan Soto is good” tweet of the year. Juan Soto is good.

— FantasyRundown.com (@FantasyRundown) March 30, 2019

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 31 March 2019 01:58 (three years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Best OBP before age-21 (min. 550 PAs):
1. Ted Williams - .436
2. Mel Ott - .414
3. John McGraw - .412
4. Jimmie Foxx - .410
5. Juan Soto - .402https://t.co/mgTtlNrgK5

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) April 18, 2019

mookieproof, Thursday, 18 April 2019 18:08 (three years ago) link

20yo Juan Soto's MLB career SLG > 20yo Vlad Jr's career MLB OPS

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 2 May 2019 17:46 (three years ago) link

geez give VGJ more than a week

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 May 2019 18:55 (three years ago) link

my brain kept trying to read that acronym as jeff van gundy

na (NA), Thursday, 2 May 2019 19:29 (three years ago) link

future dh

these are not all of the possible side effects (Karl Malone), Friday, 10 May 2019 01:05 (three years ago) link

two weeks pass...

He's now played 162 games:

292/.402/.519 with 31 homers, 107 runs & 107 RBI.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 30 May 2019 11:13 (three years ago) link

what were Trout's first 162? can someone PlayIndex that?

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 30 May 2019 17:00 (three years ago) link

.309/.374/.531 (accomplished while 2 years older than Soto)

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 30 May 2019 17:07 (three years ago) link

that's a very impressive line from trout, too, considering that his first 40 games (during his rookie 2011) he slashed vajazzled .220/.281/.390

i will never make a typo ever again (Karl Malone), Thursday, 30 May 2019 17:13 (three years ago) link

two months pass...

Two homers today. Soto won't come anywhere near Trout's 10.5 WAR in his age-20 season (defense and juiced ball, among other things), but his raw offensive totals in many categories are going to match or surpass Trout's.

clemenza, Sunday, 18 August 2019 20:19 (three years ago) link

Juan Soto (@Nationals) is the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs before turning 21 years old, joining Mel Ott (61) and Tony Conigliaro (56). pic.twitter.com/qjMLcRG8si

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 18, 2019

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 18 August 2019 20:55 (three years ago) link

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

Nats have hit the draft lottery twice in a short time, pretty nice to be able to replace Harper pretty much straight up with perhaps a higher ceiling.

earlnash, Monday, 19 August 2019 00:21 (three years ago) link

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

― earlnash, Sunday, August 18, 2019 5:21 PM (two weeks ago)

prescient post

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 4 September 2019 03:58 (three years ago) link

Lifted this from Sports Illustrated:

And because Soto has a Baseball Reference-calculated Wins Above Replacement mark of 5.0 and Acuña is at 4.8, they are, in all likelihood, going to end up on this short list of pairs of players under 22 to share a 5-WAR season:

Donie Bush (6.5) and Tris Speaker (6.3), 1909
Jimmie Foxx (7.9) and Mel Ott (7.4), 1929
Eddie Mathews (8.3) and Mickey Mantle (5.8), 1953
Al Kaline (8.2) and Hank Aaron (6.3), 1955
Frank Robinson (6.6) and Kaline (6.5), 1956
Trout (10.5) and Harper (5.2), 2012
Trout (9.0) and Machado (6.7), 2013

clemenza, Friday, 6 September 2019 23:56 (three years ago) link

that trout guy was good

k3vin k., Saturday, 7 September 2019 01:40 (three years ago) link

That was the premise of the SI piece I took that from: that Acuña/Soto are the new Trout/Harper (acknowledging that the latter is a non-issue now).

clemenza, Saturday, 7 September 2019 15:32 (three years ago) link

Devers (22) has a fWAR of 5.5 (ie, higher than Acuna & Soto)

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 7 September 2019 16:18 (three years ago) link

or wait is it <=22 or <22?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 7 September 2019 16:18 (three years ago) link

wow that's a very impressive list of HOFers, future HOFers, some guy named Donie Bush, and Bryce Harper.

omar little, Saturday, 7 September 2019 17:16 (three years ago) link

Per Baseball-Reference, Soto joins Alex Rodriguez, Ruben Sierra and Jose Canseco as the only major-league hitters in the last 50 years to record a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 10-steal season before their age 22 season.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 8 September 2019 14:16 (three years ago) link

I don't really understand his contract status:

Signed thru 2019, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2022, Earliest Free Agent: 2025

If he's only signed through this season but not eligible for arbitration until 2022, what does that mean for 2020 and 2021?

clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 16:05 (three years ago) link

i'm not sure about the technical/legal background but it's similar for other pre-arb players. soto is definitely under team control through 2022

I am also Harl (Karl Malone), Sunday, 8 September 2019 16:23 (three years ago) link

by "similar" i mean you'll see the same kind of contract status for other pre-arb players

I am also Harl (Karl Malone), Sunday, 8 September 2019 16:24 (three years ago) link

Thanks. Baseball Reference should make that clearer...if they control him until 2022, why not just say "signed through 2021." There's almost an implication of the old reserve-clause system there, where the Nationals can just renew him for whatever they want in 2020/21.

clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 18:48 (three years ago) link

hey clemenza, just noticed that fangraphs has updated their contract summary pages for each team. i don't know what you usually refer to for that kind of information, but to me this is pretty much the easiest and simplest way to get it. here's the page for the nats:


and here's more info: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/introducing-rosterresource-payroll-pages/

I am also Harl (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 September 2019 19:17 (three years ago) link

One of the things that makes Juan Soto special is his mature approach at the plate. The Nationals outfielder may not be able to legally buy alcohol in the United States, but he doesn’t just have the discipline of a seasoned vet, he has the discipline of Joey Votto in his prime. A 15 percent walk rate would be good for anyone, but it’s incredible for someone who is younger than OK Computer.

His low chase rate is the primary driver of his ability to draw a walk, but Soto has another strategy he employs. When the count reaches two strikes, Soto crouches down lower to shrink his strike zone.


Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 10 September 2019 19:27 (three years ago) link

three weeks pass...

Kinda faded a bit over the last 2 weeks of the season, but can now add "clutch postseason heroics" to his CV.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 2 October 2019 04:53 (three years ago) link

Juan Soto is the second youngest player in postseason history to have a WPA over .500 in a game.

The youngest, Miguel Cabrera, did it in Game 4 of the 2003 NLDS, a series-clinching game but not an elimination one https://t.co/XL00s8G42k pic.twitter.com/kPjbewAa9k

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 2, 2019

mookieproof, Wednesday, 2 October 2019 14:36 (three years ago) link


Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 10 October 2019 03:47 (three years ago) link

Highest SLG since 2004 (Bonds) was Yelich last year: .671
Soto is at .800

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 1 September 2020 04:46 (two years ago) link

Soto 2019: 132 strikeouts vs 34 homers
Soto 2020: 13 strikeouts vs 11 homers

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 1 September 2020 04:46 (two years ago) link

three weeks pass...

From a SI piece: "Among those with at least 1,000 plate appearances prior to their age-22 season, Soto's career OPS through his age-21 season ranks fourth, behind only Ted Williams (1.041), Jimmie Foxx (1.015) and Mel Ott (.986)."

clemenza, Friday, 25 September 2020 12:29 (two years ago) link

(Which is .967...mlb.com piece, I mean.)

clemenza, Friday, 25 September 2020 12:31 (two years ago) link

They pulled Soto after going 1-1 today--some things never change--so it looks like he'll win the slash TC. Younger than when Williams did it in '41, so I'm guessing he's the youngest ever.

clemenza, Sunday, 27 September 2020 21:01 (two years ago) link

With a 60-game asterisk

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 27 September 2020 21:07 (two years ago) link

For sure--on top of which, he only played in 75% of his team's games. Still, looking at the list of people who've done this post-1900, it's a pretty imposing group of players. (Sherry Magee and Fred Lynn were about the worst, and they were pretty damn good.)


clemenza, Sunday, 27 September 2020 21:18 (two years ago) link

two months pass...

Juan Soto leading off innings in 2020:
Four doubles
Four homers.
Eight walks.
One hit by pitch.
One strikeout.
For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 14, 2020

mookieproof, Monday, 14 December 2020 15:54 (two years ago) link

three months pass...

Do ZIPS projections usually spit out such metronomic consistency? Those totals are possible--though they would probably make him one of the 10 best hitters ever; rather optimistic--but no fluctuations for injury, off-year, pitcher's years, pandemics, etc. seems highly unlikely.

clemenza, Sunday, 14 March 2021 14:34 (two years ago) link

well, yes. it's a projection, not a forecast -- it's not like they can predict soto will blow out his knee and miss the 2028 season. and of course it's somewhat fantastical, but i wouldn't say jaffe is prone to hyperbole.

the biggest caveat, as mentioned in the article, is that he becomes unplayable in the outfield

mookieproof, Sunday, 14 March 2021 16:35 (two years ago) link

I’m surprised he isn’t that good a fielder tbh.
I wonder how often fielding improves over time. I would think not often, but maybe with a guy that young there’s a better chance?

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 14 March 2021 16:54 (two years ago) link

zips accounts for injury at least by projecting fewer and fewer ABs every season, it just doesn't project a random huge injury or anything like that

john sickels of minorleagueball.com used to do crystal ball predictions that i believe were 100% handmade, and he would always have fun with predicting things like that. and then he would have players sign with expansion teams that didn't exist yet or move to the KBO in their last 2-4 years

, Sunday, 14 March 2021 17:44 (two years ago) link

this is the only super old one i can find, probably pissed off a lot of reds fans at the time

, Sunday, 14 March 2021 17:45 (two years ago) link

I know you can't predict injury; I was probably thinking more of minor adjustments for the up-and-down nature of a career. I'd have to dig one out, but James used to do occasional career projections in the Abstracts, and I'm pretty sure there was some acknowledgement in his--something built in to however he'd programmed them--that careers don't rise and fall in straight lines. Not a big deal.

clemenza, Sunday, 14 March 2021 18:36 (two years ago) link

clem, it’s based on like a million simulations. it’s not predicting that’s how his career will look exactly, but on average that is the trajectory of a young star’s career. he’ll have a year with 3 WAR and another with 9 instead of the smooth rise and fall, but in the end it evens out

k3vin k., Monday, 15 March 2021 01:18 (two years ago) link

Would love to see a similar table for Acuna.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 15 March 2021 03:08 (two years ago) link

In the late '80s-early '90s, the Rotisserie League Baseball guys would publish a book every year with fantasy predictions and have a full stat line for each player. Complete BS because none of them were analysts and it went to print in December most likely but it put me on a dark path of doing the same for a few years and of assembling the complete "projected" stats for my entire rotisserie teams each year.

OTOH, my first year of having a solo team in my dad's league was 1990 and I bought Bobby Thigpen and Cecil Fielder at the auction.

Joe Bombin (milo z), Monday, 15 March 2021 07:52 (two years ago) link

five months pass...

soto years 1 and 2: 1154 PA, .287/.403/.535, 142 OPS+, 231 SO, 187 BB
soto years 3 and 4: 742 PA, .315/.460/.566, 180 OPS+, 108 SO, 155 BB

k3vin k., Thursday, 9 September 2021 21:50 (one year ago) link


"HYYOOOOOOONK!" is the sound I make (Karl Malone), Thursday, 9 September 2021 21:53 (one year ago) link

where is that poll thread of the young guns?

k3vin k., Thursday, 9 September 2021 22:43 (one year ago) link

Old Man Acuña

clemenza, Thursday, 9 September 2021 22:48 (one year ago) link

stunned by the plate discipline of soto and vlad at their ages

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 September 2021 23:35 (one year ago) link

Said it on the main thred but watching soto flip HR oppo looks sooooooooo easy

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 10 September 2021 03:25 (one year ago) link

130 walks ties him with Harper (2018) for fourth-highest single-season total among active players; Votto holds the top three spots with seasons of 143 (2015), 135 (2013), and 134 (2017). Ten games left--should take second on that list, but hard to overtake the top spot.

clemenza, Thursday, 23 September 2021 21:24 (one year ago) link

Votto is a man-god

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 23 September 2021 21:27 (one year ago) link

Soto took over the BA lead for both leagues today.

clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 02:48 (one year ago) link

(And must have a big OBP lead.)

clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 02:48 (one year ago) link

also leading in CS weirdly enough

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 24 September 2021 03:26 (one year ago) link

I noticed that too. Weird: 23/28 his first three years, 9/16 this year. He got bolder and slower simultaneously.

clemenza, Friday, 24 September 2021 14:09 (one year ago) link

juan soto in 67 second-half games: .369/.542/.682, 18 HR, 81 BB, 34 K

juan soto in 26 september games: .430/.590/.744, 7 HR, 34 BB, 8 K

now leads the NL in both fWAR and bWAR for position players (the latter by quite a bit). envisioning a pujols-like run here

mookieproof, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 15:05 (one year ago) link

wow, by fWAR he's ahead of everyone in the AL too, including vlad and semien, by just a smidge.

by pujols-like run do you mean his consistency in the 2000s? seems right to me, just watching him. even his lesser stretches (first half 2021) are still very, very good by almost any other measure other than himself

typo hell #5: maybe you get an idea of what went into, or (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 28 September 2021 15:46 (one year ago) link

yeah, basically where he's a top-five mvp candidate for the next seven years in a row. more fun soto splits (this season):

he's hitting .469/.463/.813 on first pitches, so don't throw him a first-pitch strike. but then he's hitting .588/.600/1.147 on 1-0 pitches, so

mookieproof, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 16:09 (one year ago) link

four months pass...

Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract from the Washington Nationals before the lockout, according to this @Enrique_Rojas1 report. In the story, Soto confirms the offer.

More from Enrique at @ESPNDeportes: https://t.co/zNnlWTb9Rd

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 16, 2022

mookieproof, Wednesday, 16 February 2022 19:22 (one year ago) link

two months pass...

He has 6 home runs this year, and a total of 7 RBIs.

Michael F Gill, Friday, 6 May 2022 20:12 (ten months ago) link

one month passes...

juan soto is in one of the worst slumps of his career.


juan soto is batting 25% better than the average MLB hitter (wRC+ 125, .214/.265/.432 with 14 HRs)
juan soto's babip is .207, more than 100 points below any other season.
juan soto has 20.0 fWAR and is 23 years old.

Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 June 2022 16:40 (nine months ago) link

three weeks pass...

Turned down a 15 year/$440M extension. My guess is that no amount would have been sufficient.

Michael F Gill, Saturday, 16 July 2022 20:30 (eight months ago) link

That sounds crazy but I honestly can't blame him for thinking he could get more, possibly a lot more, if he hits FA, and he wouldn't have to spend some of his best years on a rebuilding team. Would really only need to get like 10/400 at 26 to beat it and possibly even leave an opportunity for another decent payday at 36.

, Saturday, 16 July 2022 20:45 (eight months ago) link

$440M seems like a big deal.

clemenza, Saturday, 16 July 2022 23:59 (eight months ago) link

he's gonna be a yankee, isn't he

mookieproof, Sunday, 17 July 2022 00:58 (eight months ago) link

With six playoff teams per league, "rebuilding" doesn't mean what it used to.

Can't blame Soto for wanting to bet on himself though.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 17 July 2022 12:17 (eight months ago) link

i feel bad for nats fans

na (NA), Monday, 18 July 2022 19:50 (eight months ago) link

I can’t believe there seems to be a growing consensus that he will be traded in a week or two. My guess is that it probably costs a team their top 3-5 prospects plus some of their current starters.


Michael F Gill, Monday, 18 July 2022 23:06 (eight months ago) link

Goofy trade scenarios (skimmed--I think the writer's just making them up).


clemenza, Tuesday, 19 July 2022 03:18 (eight months ago) link

one month passes...

whats going on here.

The #Padres, barely clinging to the final wild-card berth, are still awaiting dividends on their blockbuster trade:
Juan Soto is hitting .063 (3-48) without an extra-base hit in his last 15 games; .202 with 7 RBI in 35 games since his arrival.
Josh Bell is hitting .204/.319/.307.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 16, 2022

Spottie, Friday, 16 September 2022 19:58 (six months ago) link

And that's not even to mention Josh Hader's 4-digit ERA as a Padre. What's going on?

Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 16 September 2022 20:38 (six months ago) link

san diego is where stars go to die

Spottie, Friday, 16 September 2022 20:41 (six months ago) link

It’s fascinating to me how bad the deadline deals have worked out so far to the Padres. And I say that as a person who wants them to do well.

Michael F Gill, Friday, 16 September 2022 23:52 (six months ago) link

I was gonna post that Drury's been great but I see he only has a 700 OPS too!

Piven After Midnight (The Yellow Kid), Saturday, 17 September 2022 00:12 (six months ago) link

just a poorly timed slump

ciderpress, Saturday, 17 September 2022 01:31 (six months ago) link

You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.