Old Man Acuña

this is tough. i think i'd have to go with tatis if it weren't for his shoulder, simply because he's a SS. though he might not stick there for long at this rate. acuna is sort of the opposite in that he plays a low value position really well, but how long is that gonna last? plenty of 23 year olds can play a good right field

i'd go with vlad if he could play a passable 3B - i'd like to see them try him there again now that he's spry. he might still be the answer if he's stuck at 1B, but so far we're projecting a lot based on a really good 62 games

soto seems like the one who doesn't fit in at this point. he's a corner outfielder with less of a track record there than acuna, he's already racked up some injuries, and we might all be overrating his hitting based on 47 games from 2020

i honestly don't know. tatis if he promises to get that surgery in the offseason.

I will take them all thank you very much

Soto has been excellent for more than 62 games. He hit .282/.406/.548 over a full season + a championship run. In 2018, he batted basically the same over 110 games.

47 games, I mean.

But voting Guerrero, purely for sentimental reasons, a part of me is certain than he'll go the Ryan Howard route, another part sees Miggy, but who cares? That home run at the Olympic Stadium was one of my great live sport memories, he was born in my city and certainly will be the hitting coach of the Nouveau Expos.

imo if you remove 2020 from soto's career he isn't in the same conversation as tatis and acuna. if he'd had the same .390ish wOBA that he had in 2018/2019 he wouldn't have anything on them. still one of the best hitters in the league but a step below everywhere else, no way would he be my first choice.

we might all be overrating his hitting based on 47 games from 2020

True, but couldn't you same the same of Guerrero (even more so) if you removed his 62 games from this year? But you don't--the assumption is that this year is closer to his real ability, just like I'd say Soto's first three years combined (.295/.415/.557) are closer to his. Even this year, he's still getting on base 40% of the time.

I'll probably vote for Tatis. He and Acuna haven't had a misstep yet, and Tatis has a year on him. It's all guesswork right now.

"say the same"

tatis. soto and vlad are incredible hitters, but they can’t play short

Yup. That’s what put me over. If either Soto or Acuna could play CF well, I’d reconsider.
With Vlad, you take away this season and he’s certainly not in the same (figurative) league as the other guys - but you can at least say this is a natural trend. With Soto, otoh, his struggles this year make his 2020 numbers look like it could be a fluky ceiling for him (who knows).

Also 100% leave Vlad at first. It’s a waste of his cannon arm, but he seems to really enjoy himself there. I think it’s kid of like Edwin where freeing himself of the stress of handling the hot corner seemed to free him up to focus on hitting. Considering how rough he was at 3rd, I’m amazing at how he’s excelled at first. I wouldn’t want to mess with what’s working. (Also we have a couple guys coming up that could potentially be solid 3b options)

I don't think you guys (not VHS) are giving Soto enough credit. He hasn't had an OPS+ under 140; even this year, because of his OBP, he's at 142. He got off to a great start--.378/.465/.568 through 10 games--then the strained shoulder (he may have tried to play through it for a few games).

Positionally, though, it's hard to make a case for anyone other than Tatis.

For the record I think very highly of Soto.

True, but couldn't you same the same of Guerrero (even more so) if you removed his 62 games from this year? But you don't--the assumption is that this year is closer to his real ability, just like I'd say Soto's first three years combined (.295/.415/.557) are closer to his. Even this year, he's still getting on base 40% of the time.

well i did make sure to caveat that ("so far we're projecting a lot based on a really good 62 games") but like thermo said vlad has the benefit of doing it right now instead of last year. his progression looks like ..' and soto's looks like ..'. so it's easier for us to say "vlad has taken a legitimate step forward" like everyone was saying about soto last year. but vlad also has the benefit of his prospect pedigree making him one of the best hitting prospects ever, whereas soto didn't really have a chance to reach that level in the minors. and vlad also benefits from the narrative (he lost weight and now he's the true vlad) which could work against him too

though i fully admit i'm probably just down on soto because he's had a disappointing year and i'm a short attention spanned fantasy player

with tatis - he's been one of the worst defensive players in the league this year by UZR/DRS/OAA. he leads the league in errors despite missing a bunch of games. don't know if it's the yips, a crappy shoulder, or if he's actually just outgrown the position (scouts and analysts had him making the move to 3B in his prospect years). he was a negative there in 2019 as well. his "defense" rating on fangraphs has been negative 2/3 years, and that factors in positional adjustment. this really complicates the defense argument for me. obviously the padres can't try him at 3B but that might be his best position. still better than 1B/RF but not by as much

Yeah, I don't know why I said that. Mookieproof called him incredible too...just ✖ is the skeptic, and he's explained that now.

Is Acuna the only one of the four who hasn't had any kind of physical issues thus far (I'm including Vlad's weight, which may now be in the past)?

tbf Acuna could play CF it’s just the Braves have/had better supposed defensive options ahead of him that haven’t hit well so far (Pache, Inciarte, etc.). He has spelled in CF a decent amount in his career.

The only substantial time missed for Acuna was when he got drilled by Urena iirc

Not watching a lot of NL games - I actually had no idea Tatis was *that* bad at SS

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

With Wander Franco up tomorrow, all four guys are yesterday's news now.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

uh oh

out for 9-10 months

Absolutely awful but finally hope this gets the team to realize they aren’t going anywhere this season and just start cutting deals.

A bunch of stuff on Acuña's season:

https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-jr-leading-league-in-ops-steals

Mays, Henderson, you--that's a good place to be.

One of those mix-and-match contraptions, but:

"NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuña Jr. swiped his 40th base of 2023, becoming the first player in AL/NL history with 40 steals, 20 HRs and 50 RBIs before the All-Star break."

Actually, even better: 201 TB in 83 team games. No one's had 400 since the peak of the PED era (Bonds, Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, and Helton twice in 2000/2001).

40/70 or bust

Surprised at the lack of grouchy old coot asterisk talk for steals with the bigger bases and pickoff rules.

"AL/NL history" - is this a subtweet about the Negro Leagues or something?

Why wouldn't you just say "Major League history"?

I assume that's what that meant. Which sometimes is worth noting, but I'm not sure it applies here in that "All-Star break" seems like an MLB construct.

(And if someone did do it in the Negro Leagues, why not just mention who that was?)

I shouldn't have put the accent on Acuña's name in the thread title--not very search-friendly...Jeff Passan had a tweet about NL MVP suddenly being a three-way race. I think he's right. It's not so much that Acuña has fallen off--he's .340/.431/.553 in August--it's that Betts has gone crazy this month: .454/.510/.802. Freeman is his third candidate: .396/.446/.604 in August. Where they are in bWAR: Betts-6.9, Acuña-6.4, Freeman-5.8. fWAR: Betts-7.0, Freeman-6.4, Acuña-6.3. Vote-splitting on the Dodgers may factor in, but Betts looks like the front-runner right now.

I didn’t want to clog up the general thread with betts talk but yes, 100% to all of this, and SB’s be dammed Betts should win if the season ended today

Guessing it would have to be a razor-thin margin for SB to sway a voter today.

Not until you factor in the CS!

Two for Acuña tonight...these two guys! Trying to think of the most comparable MVP race and not coming up with a good parallel. Cabrera/Trout in a way, but Cabrera's TC carried a lot of weight (whether you think it should have or not) and it ended up being not that close, 22-6 in first-place votes. Guidry/Rice ('78) and Clemens/Mattingly ('86) came to mind, but they were fundamentally different with pitchers involved, and they weren't too close either (reversed, which I've always found interesting). Hernandez/Stargell famously tied, but I think the accepted view now is that Stargell received an inordinate amount of old-school intangible goodwill in that one. So I don't know offhand.

Betts left the game on crutches tonight so the race may be over.

x-rays were negative, so i'd doubt it.

even if betts stays in and flatlines - unless acuna hits the 40/40 it's looking like betts/freeman to lose.

Prior to tonight Acuna was #5 in HRs... on the Braves.

He's now tied at #2 with Austin Riley.

Nothing against Freeman, but I can't see Acuna being lower than 1st or 2nd.

Back in the lineup tonight after a couple of worrisome days out with calf tightness.

you can tell he wants that 40/40 bad

My guess is he's after that prime Immaculate Grid real estate.

Agree with Posnanski's post today: MVP is clearly Acuna's now.

I don't know if this has gotten any attention yet, but Acuna has 33 leadoff HR and won't turn 26 till December. He's almost cracked the Top 10 already, and he's almost halfway to Henderson's 81.

damn certain snitker gave him the greenlight on the 40/70 club for the rest of the year

I'm sure there will be no end to Acuna-related milestones in the next few days...As far as I can tell, only two post-war players have scored 150 runs: Williams in 1949 (150) and Bagwell in 2000 (152). Acuna's at 143 with eight games to play.

(Henderson's most were in his two great years with the Yankees: 146 in '85 and 130 in '86.)

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-leadoff-seasons-ever

Tough call for #1. Henderson only played 132 games, but he beat out Cecil Fielder--first guy to hit 50 HR since '77--for MVP, and even with the missed games he compiled a 9.9 bWAR.

Actually he played 136; the stats they use are only for games leading off.

From some Twitter page:

Ronald Acuna Jr. (this season) and Ty Cobb (in 1911) are the only players in MLB history to have 75+ extra-base hits and 60+ stolen bases in the same season.

Both Acuna Jr. and Cobb were born on December 18, 111 years apart (1886 and 1997).

There's yr 40-70 man right there

May be just me, but it feels rather hollow to be glorifying any SB records the year that they made it easier than ever to steal a base (last I checked 2023 was tracking at 81-82%+ SB success rate vs. traditionally tracking at 55-70%). Get out your asterisks!

Ignoring this fact makes baseball more fun and what better justification do you need?

Making the game "more fun" via stat-padding comes off as cheap and tacky. May as well bring in the fences and switch to aluminum bats.

a real Mookie stan here

The total number of SB across MLB isn't much higher than it was in the 90's and 00's. There has been a drop over the last decade, presumably because everyone is a power hitter now.

The last decade was the anomaly, more so than this year. Same with the pace of play rules. Nine inning games were never supposed to last 3.5 hours.

I do think SS's point is legit, but still very happy for RA Jr. My impression, no data, is that pitchers haven't fully used the step-offs and throw-overs they're entitled to, including using soft throw-overs as a way to refocus and get a few more breaths before the next big effort. Runners have made the first big change, but I think pitchers will adjust a little.

it'll be interesting to see how things play out next season. it's all true about the SB, even Mike Trout stole 2 bases this season.

Mike Trout maybe not the best example, guy has always been far faster than he looks. He’s got 206 career steals! Even this season he’s in the 96th percentile for sprint speed.

The slowest player I can find on the leaderboard to have stolen a base this year is the Cubs’ Tucker Barnhart. I’m all the way up to Giancarlo Stanton and have yet to find someone in the list who’s stolen multiple.

Matt Thaiss (Angels) has 2! Also, Nelson Cruz is the oldest guy to steal a base this year.

that was more a deep cut joke about Mike's extreme decline in SB over the years, one of these seasons i would like to see him pile up at least as many SBs as Schwarber did in 2022!

i always like when the old guys run. Carlos Santana stole 6 this season.

xp fair, he’s been injured a lot of the time though hasn’t he?

Justin Turner (39 in November!) has 4!

i wondered if he was cautious on the basepaths to avoid injury, iirc he missed a chunk in an earlier season due to an injury incurred while stealing second.

if he's trying to avoid injury, he's having a tough time of it obv

On the fence about this till Alejandro Kirk starts getting the green light.