"We're talking about sand and death"-- Middle East, North Africa (MENA) and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020

Syria has “got a lot of sand over there,” Trump said. “So there’s a lot of sand that they can play with.”

He’s used similar language before.

“We’re talking about sand and death, that’s what we’re talking about,” Trump told reporters in January.

What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

The security situation will help Netanyahu bring to the polls right-wing voters who had previously had enough of him because of the corruption affairs, but will leave that aside to save the country from Iran. On the other hand, talk of war and emergencies distances the participation of the largely Arab Joint List from participation in a future coalition with Kahol Lavan and discourages Arab voters, who went to the polls in September in the hope of such participation. Netanyahu’s survival, therefore, depends on his success in keeping the security agenda in the headlines in the coming eight weeks.

Opinion piece in Israeli paper

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-for-trump-criticism-over-soleimani-assassination-was-better-than-inaction-1.8353402

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/yemen-war-signs-conflict-wind-2020-191215185510885.html

Violence in Yemen will likely subside in 2020, amid signs the warring factions want to find a resolution to end the five-year war, a UN official has said.

Mark Lowcock, the UN's emergency relief chief, told the Doha Forum on Sunday there are signs the key actors in the conflict could bring the war to an end next year, especially after the Riyadh agreement was signed by the government of Yemen and United Arab Emirates-backed groups in the country's south.

In November, Saudi Arabia sponsored a power-sharing agreement between the internationally recognised government of Yemen and the UAE-supported southern separatists to halt fighting in southern Yemen.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/cyprus-gang-rape-woman-israel-trial-lying-guilty-a9263896.html

Well this is not good.

More catching up on news from the area:

Turkish troops have started deploying to Libya in a bid to prop up the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced.

The move followed a vote in the Turkish parliament backing deployment and further deadly attacks in Tripoli by an airforce under the control of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the war lord who has been trying to oust the government since April.

Erdogan told CNN Turk on Sunday that Turkish forces were already on their way to Libya. “Our soldiers’ duty there is coordination. They will develop the operation centre there. Our soldiers are gradually going right now,” he said.

The Turkish deployment, likely to take many weeks, risks a military confrontation between Turkey and other regional actors supporting Haftar, notably the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

Russian mercenaries, believed to have the backing of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, are also operating in Libya in support of Haftar. Putin has urged Erdogan not to send troops.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/05/turkish-troops-deploy-to-libya-to-prop-up-embattled-government

To be fair, Libya has had a pretty rotten history since the Ottomans were evicted in 1912.

congrats mbs, you've done it again

The Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos had his mobile phone “hacked” in 2018 after receiving a WhatsApp message that had apparently been sent from the personal account of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, sources have told the Guardian.

The encrypted message from the number used by Mohammed bin Salman is believed to have included a malicious file that infiltrated the phone of the world’s richest man, according to the results of a digital forensic analysis.

This analysis found it “highly probable” that the intrusion into the phone was triggered by an infected video file sent from the account of the Saudi heir to Bezos, the owner of the Washington Post.

The two men had been having a seemingly friendly WhatsApp exchange when, on 1 May of that year, the unsolicited file was sent, according to sources who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity.

Large amounts of data were exfiltrated from Bezos’s phone within hours, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Guardian has no knowledge of what was taken from the phone or how it was used.

The extraordinary revelation that the future king of Saudi Arabia may have had a personal involvement in the targeting of the American founder of Amazon will send shockwaves from Wall Street to Silicon Valley.

It could also undermine efforts by “MBS” – as the crown prince is known – to lure more western investors to Saudi Arabia, where he has vowed to economically transform the kingdom even as he has overseen a crackdown on his critics and rivals.

The disclosure is likely to raise difficult questions for the kingdom about the circumstances around how US tabloid the National Enquirer came to publish intimate details about Bezos’s private life – including text messages – nine months later.

Will no one rid me of this turbulent CEO?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/22/click-i-agree-un-rapporteur-says-prince-tried-to-intimidate-bezos-with-text

finding it really hard to pick a side in this one tbh

Take heed, RPG developers.

I'm starting to believe Palestine will altogether cease from existence in my lifetime.

it will if america has anything to do with it

That's got to be the literal, just barely unspoken goal.

I was wondering if I missed discussion about this somewhere, but figured I hadn't, as there's nothing to discuss right? Pressuring Palestinians with a 'my way or the highway' deal from Trump/Bibi isn't a "peace plan" or a "solution". They'll reject it, so Trump/Bibi can point the finger of blame at them. World peace for all.

Two wounded leaders making a show of themselves for domestic consumption - nothing to discuss is otm.

I think in general the comparisons between Israel and South Africa has been overblown, but the Palestinian state in this plan is most accurately called a bantustan, no?

That'll be why the Tories like it.

Stop being so negative!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/29/pm-tells-corbyn-dont-be-so-negative-about-middle-east-peace-plan

Any little reminder of apartheid South Africa will bring a warm glow to a Tory Prime Minister.

The prime minister said Trump’s plan “has the merits of a two state solution”

ah yes, all the merits of a two-state solution without any of the compromise of a two-state solution

Kushner is a lifelong friend of Bibi with investments in the West Bank colonies.

https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2018/12/18/ecba50ab08ec4bdc8c625b4ffbb38f28_6.jpg

It's been bantustans since the 1970s. Yes, Kushner's plan perpetuates the bantustans, and retains Israeli government control over the parts of the West Bank it seized since 1967. Perhaps the remarkable thing about it is that its land-trading scheme evicts Arab-Israelis that have been voting citizens of Israel for 70 years. This would accord with a long term goal of the settler movement to make life for the natives (including Israeli citizens) so miserable that they emigrate. After all, a Edomite storm god told them it was theirs 3000 years ago.

The only hope I see for a bilateral settlement is one where a) Israel retreats to 1967 borders, in return for Palestinians giving up right to return to properties seized in the 1948 Nabka, b) Palestine is a fully sovereign state, with control over its own borders, c) Jerusalem is a international jurisdiction; or at least the Dome isn't threatened.

Looking for help assessing this article:

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v41/n23/ghada-karmi/constantly-dangled-endlessly-receding

The writer makes a one state solution look like a fair accompli, and the logical way to improve the lot of Palestinians being to achieve full franchise, representation and rights for them as Israeli citizens. Accurate? Workable?

Hah fait, rather than fair

I feel like I'd need to know the likelihood of Israelis in general accepting this. No doubt the sort of person who likes settling in the West Bank probably would not, but what about everyone else? How is life for Palestinian citizens of Israel?

I like that article a lot, clearly lays out the essential issues and palestinian suffrage is the only equitable solution I can imagine. Still, not gonna happen. Here is an article with some likudniks and settlers advocating the one state solution, but note it's from 2010: https://www.haaretz.com/1.5149140

As Lebanon hobbles into its fifth month of political and economic meltdown, the countrywide protests continue to include protesters of all religious backgrounds, uniting in scorn for leaders who cannot offer even the basics: 24-hour electricity, a functional economy or trustworthy governance.

But the protests have forced many Lebanese Shiites into a dilemma: How can they square their loyalty to Hezbollah with its support for the status quo? And will Hezbollah keep trying to extinguish the rebellion, or listen to it?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/world/middleeast/lebanon-protests-shiites-hezbollah.html

Lebanon’s foreign debt sank to a record low as speculation mounted that the government may not repay a $1.2 billion Eurobond due in less than a month.

Investors are pondering the possible shape a default might take, with the crisis-ridden nation’s government wrangling over whether to continue servicing its debts. On Wednesday, distressed-debt investor Greylock Capital Management announced it and other bondholders had formed a group to talk to the government about its options.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/lebanon-s-bonds-plunge-to-record-lows-as-greylock-forms-group

Meanwhile in Libya --

Fighting has continued on the ground despite a call for a cease-fire by Turkey and Russia starting on Jan. 12 and an international summit on Libya in Berlin on Jan. 19 aimed at putting an end to foreign interference. Last week the Geneva talks under the auspices of the U.N. took place for the first round of talks between eastern Libya based putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital Tripoli.

"Geneva is the transformation of a truce into a sustainable cease-fire," the ambassador continued. "Although there was no agreement, both sides agreed on the need to expedite the resettlement of IDPs and agreed on an understanding to restore normalcy to conflict-affected areas."

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2020/02/12/turkish-algerian-efforts-for-libyan-truce-bear-fruit-as-outlook-seems-promising-algerian-envoy-says

Currently a social media blackout in Turkey as reports of 30+ Turkish soldiers killed in an airstrike in Idlib. Turkey bussing refugees to Greek border to put pressure on Europe to assist?

so time for Israel election number 4?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/right-wing-media-outlets-duped-by-a-middle-east-propaganda-campaign

was Newsmax "duped", or is Newsmax just a north american propaganda campaign?

implication appears to be that newsmax is culpable but not complicit but ymmv

honestly i didn't read the article, sorry.

i missed my effexor dose yesterday so now i'm just replying to everything with "FUCK YOU RIGHT WING RICH COMPLICIT BASTARDS", so look out

What’s going on in Beirut looks crazy.

Don't store your fireworks near a nitrate fertilizer warehouse...

So are the military who took over in Mali going to allow for an election and civilian rule?

https://reportersatlarge.com/2020/08/28/mali-buhari-west-african-leaders-insist-on-democracy/

Haven't the junta said that they will allow for an election after a transitional military government?

My source: https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/13063/The_junta_haggles_on_transition

Looks like military wants to drag out transition period for a couple of years.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/defund-centcom/

Almost all of what the United States seeks from the Middle East — supplies of oil, limits on the terrorist threat, an Israel capable of defending itself — regional countries need more than the United States does.

Arguing to get out of Israel? The author must be anti-Semitic!

I just learned that Robert Fisk passed away 30 October. Last decade, I'd regularly search for new reporting from him for insight into Afghanistan and Iraq.

Independent: Robert Fisk: The outstanding and truth-telling journalist who ventured into danger

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/01/06/france-seeking-exit-strategy-from-mali-after-eight-years-of-war/

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/france-drone-mali-macron-civilians

Mistaken attack on wedding party

My own sense is neither Paris nor AFRICOM is actually foolish enough to be believe they can win wars in West Africa. These military maestros need only not to lose, and hopefully avoid excessive embarrassment from too high casualties, or too high civilian "collateral damage" counts. At even that, however, France is increasingly failing – and the US may not be far behind them. Yet all told: survival, not victory, seems the strategy.

These three RS apply in Mali and the Sahel specifically, and bear remarkable resemblance to an infamous 2007 Naval War College briefing – which made the rounds, and caused a scandal, in Africa – listing four common perceptions of the US’s real reasons for AFRICOM: natural resources, democracy deficit, increasing Chinese presence, and terrorism.

Actual Africans never trusted America’s continental motives, and haven’t missed the colonial-imperial parallels – nor should they, when the Pentagon proudly partners with Paris to assert control in FrancophoneWest Africa.

That’s because the continent’s people sensed a salient truth from the start: just as the colonial Federation of French West Africa always more emphasized the "French" element of the name – AFRICOM has always had little to do with Africans
.

https://original.antiwar.com/danny_sjursen/2021/01/13/in-other-news-another-franco-american-forever-war-failing-in-africa-mali-edition/

AFRICOM has now explicitly denied conducting a US military strike in Somalia on January 29th - insisting to Airwars that its last action there was on January 19th - Donald Trump's last full day in office. https://t.co/DUSI9kpndu

— Airwars (@airwars) February 1, 2021

https://www.democracynow.org/2021/2/5/biden_trump_morocco_western_sahara

President Donald Trump broke with decades of U.S. foreign policy in the waning days of his administration and recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a territory the country has occupied since 1975 in defiance of the United Nations and the international community. U.S. recognition came as Morocco agreed to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, becoming the fourth Arab nation to do so in recent months as part of a regional push by the Trump administration to strengthen Israel without addressing the Palestinian conflict. Now the Biden administration must weigh whether to reverse Trump’s decision on Western Sahara

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/15/france-mali-troops/?fbclid=IwAR3EOPLTLYne8aCG6415c_k_ADmS8QSdeVwi54SOvlSV26qEez8GFWHpDcc

France is weighing a total military withdrawal from Mali, blaming soured relations with the West African nation’s military rulers and the arrival of Russian mercenaries, according to the European power’s top diplomat and two Western officials with knowledge of the plan.

“If the conditions are no longer in place so that we can act in Mali — which is clearly the case — then we will continue to fight terrorism next door,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told France 5 late Monday.

French President Emmanuel Macron plans to announce the departure from Mali this week during a European Union-African Union summit in Brussels, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly....

Mali’s biggest defense ally — has about 4,000 troops in West Africa, which is grappling with the world’s fastest-growing Islamist insurgencies. That number is set to shrink to 2,500 this year, and the remaining troops are expected to be redeployed elsewhere in the region, the officials said, including Niger and Ivory Coast....

Bad earthquake in Syria and Turkey

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — At least 2,100 people have been killed in Turkey and Syria, where a powerful earthquake on Monday collapsed thousands of buildings and raised the specter of a new humanitarian disaster in a region already wracked by war, a refugee crisis and deep economic troubles.

From NY Times

https://dcist.com/story/23/02/06/turkey-syria-earthquake-how-to-help-dc-organizations-donations/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=engagingnetworks&utm_campaign=DCIST_DAILY_02_06_2023&utm_content=DCist+Daily+-+2/6/2023+16:59:45

Still trying to find people in the rubble