Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

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I think this is the Ford move that has infuriated me most yet: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/pc-government-tuition-fees-1.4981987?cmp=rss&fbclid=IwAR3P0OHq4xPbt91zSrIg7FYqKx16XQA1qGgiuihCPGnZM-KsTyuqcVrUtkM

At the same time that the PCs are cancelling a programme that would have made it possible for low-income students to attend university tuition-free, they are announcing an across-the-board 10% tuition cut, which might be good but afaict there is no plan to increase public funding for the universities.

Colleges and universities will be expected to absorb the loss in revenue, Fullerton said.

"They will make choices in terms of what they need to do," she said. "They will be able to determine what they need to do to change, to adapt and innovate."

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Sunday, 20 January 2019 02:32 (eight months ago) link

"They will be able to determine what they need to do to change, to adapt and innovate."

i.e. make up the shortfall with international student tuition

jmm, Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:06 (eight months ago) link

I would give my life with a smile if I knew it would make Ford and his allies drop dead tomorrow tbh

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:08 (eight months ago) link

this has been a fun story on the way to the possible collapse of the federal ndp (if jagmeet loses this byelection)

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:15 (eight months ago) link

which tbh I'm basically actively rooting for at this point

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:19 (eight months ago) link

obviously the tactics being deployed by his opponent are horrible but the NDP need a blaring signal that they're on the wrong track ASAP

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:20 (eight months ago) link

Lol @ "merely a statement of fact".

She's officially out, now that Richard T. Lee is the Liberal candidate, right? Or is she still going to try to run as an independent?

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:43 (eight months ago) link

her last tweet, a response to the controversy, was pretty egregious:

Every day I’m meeting more people on the doorstep from #BurnabySouth, having conversations with them and hearing their concerns 🗣 Want to be part of Team Karen and help me reach out to more Canadians in our community? Sign up here ➡️ https://t.co/cThQel1YtB pic.twitter.com/pyVRLPX37i

— Karen Wang (@karenxbwang) January 16, 2019

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:50 (eight months ago) link

she's threatened to run as an indy but I doubt she will...there's also a horrible anti-trans candidate running with the people's party and polling at like 9%. Not great

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 20 January 2019 03:52 (eight months ago) link

i followed the burnaby story but I'm out of touch, what's the wrong track the federal ndp is on, generally?

XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:00 (eight months ago) link

imo they're much too timid and unprincipled an opposition force in general. they need a total messaging and leadership overhaul a la UK Labour. and nothing less than a pledge to keep the oil in the fucking ground. It's political suicide in....some parts....of the country but it's the right thing to do.

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:20 (eight months ago) link

and in the long run I think sticking to key principles across the board would win them the respect and credibility they badly need

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:21 (eight months ago) link

yup

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:38 (eight months ago) link

I had high-ish hopes for jagmeet and he's been really poor at differentiating himself and the NDP from the government.

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:39 (eight months ago) link

yeah. I was disappointed it was basically a coronation, but I was willing to give him a chance. his leadership has been a complete faceplant. we don't need another handsome, amorphous figurehead a la Trudeau heading up the only (currently) viable left force in this country.

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 04:55 (eight months ago) link

thanks, buddy. the number of actual jobs in oil and gas at the moment + future prospects for the industry, you'd think they could afford to take a principled stand, maybe especially after ndp premiers in alberta and bc fumbled their wishy washy attempts at green policy while endorsing pipelines? is this leap manifesto actually good? https://leapmanifesto.org/ i see alanis morissette and arcade fire have both signed on, also judy rebick, naomi klein and the ndp socialist caucus.

i know i know end of the world looming but i'd support a federal ndp that sidelined environmental policy and advocated for aggressive tax reform, pharmacare and dental, canceling student debt, free education, childcare program, investing in social housing, card check, maybe withdraw from nato, even if some of that would be mostly just advocacy and handled by provincial governments (right?). i just mean, i'm skeptical of pushing for good environmental policy without or before setting up alternative economic/social policy. so, i have to hope jagmeet loses this byelection, right?

XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Sunday, 20 January 2019 05:13 (eight months ago) link

i'm skeptical of pushing for good environmental policy without or before setting up alternative economic/social policy

why_not_both.gif

resident hack (Simon H.), Sunday, 20 January 2019 06:01 (eight months ago) link

building a green economy won't alleviate the inherent contradictions of neoliberal capitalism, though. but yes.

XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Sunday, 20 January 2019 08:16 (eight months ago) link

that post seems to be trying to disagree with something you didn't say, i think.

i agree, why not both.

XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Sunday, 20 January 2019 09:07 (eight months ago) link

Worth noting that Labour has been one of the two leading governing parties in the UK since WW2 and has actually led successful democratic socialist governments at the national level in the past (and have still yet to win an election under Corbyn). A little harder to feel confident in the NDP's federal prospects if they tacked harder left but, if the point is that they wouldn't do any worse than they're doing now and might at least push the Liberals more to the left, I could see that. I'm still up for giving Singh more of a chance but I agree that he hasn't been exceptionally impressive so far and I'm unconvinced by how he handled the Erin Weir situation.

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Sunday, 20 January 2019 22:43 (eight months ago) link

I don't know if this exactly counts as politics but it does concern an investigation currently being handled by the OPP and reopened by the Chief Coroner and it is one gruesome story, about a 30yo man with serious mental health issues who died in prison for 'unascertained' reasons, according to the original coroner's report, with over 50 signs of 'blunt impact trauma'. A forensic pathologist says asphyxiation can't be ruled out. A fellow inmate says he watched four guards beat the man to death, after he had already been restrained. CBC's Fifth Estate has been investigating for a year and will broadcast a report in an hour and change, although reading this longform story seems pretty heavy in itself.

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Monday, 21 January 2019 00:44 (eight months ago) link

i.e. make up the shortfall with international student tuition

Btw, I'm not sure most universities will be able to make up the whole shortfall this way. The reality will likely be more painful. I'm anticipating more closures of 'less practical' programs, increased casualization of the faculty workforce (which was beginning to change at the end of the Liberals' tenure), and cuts to student financial aid. This thread, by a U of T English prof and former dept head, seems like a p good start:

A quick thread: why a 10 percent cut to ON tuition fees is disastrous news.

— Holger Syme (@literasyme) January 16, 2019

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Monday, 21 January 2019 00:55 (eight months ago) link

Are you still in town, Sund4r? Do you feel like sharing contact info? My ILX mail goes to a dead address, but I could mail yours.

I'm sure you're right about the additional funding repercussions. I'm wondering about my old department. A prof there commented on this as well: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-changes-to-ontario-tuition-are-unfair-and-short-sighted/

jmm, Monday, 21 January 2019 01:37 (eight months ago) link

I am. I think my ilx mail should work.

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Monday, 21 January 2019 01:38 (eight months ago) link

Ending the six-month post-graduation grace period before students need to pay back loans just seems mean for the sake of it tbh.

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Monday, 21 January 2019 01:40 (eight months ago) link

Could you post here if you're messaging my ilx mail bc I don't check that email as often?

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Monday, 21 January 2019 01:44 (eight months ago) link

Just sent!

jmm, Monday, 21 January 2019 03:06 (eight months ago) link

NDP (correctly imo) opposes Trudeau/Liberal policy on Venezuela: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-ndp-liberals-venezuela-1.4991913

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Friday, 25 January 2019 04:37 (eight months ago) link

Good move.

resident hack (Simon H.), Friday, 25 January 2019 04:39 (eight months ago) link

Maduro has blood on his hands and I refuse to support a dictatorship simply because it aligns with my own political ideals, but there's no question that Canada shouldn't back the US's nth attempt at manipulation and destabilization in the region, especially when it involves Bolsonaro.

pomenitul, Friday, 25 January 2019 09:34 (eight months ago) link

Yes

Locked in silent monologue, in silent scream (Sund4r), Friday, 25 January 2019 10:22 (eight months ago) link

open for business indeed

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/01/31/leaked-document-privatization-health-care/

resident hack (Simon H.), Thursday, 31 January 2019 19:52 (eight months ago) link

sigh

silent as a seashell Julia (Sund4r), Saturday, 2 February 2019 03:09 (eight months ago) link

is there wide support in Ontario for privatized health care?

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 2 February 2019 19:33 (eight months ago) link

This one's up there with the most frightening dystopian scenarios, as far as I'm concerned.

pomenitul, Saturday, 2 February 2019 19:38 (eight months ago) link

AFAIK that's not a popular proposal anywhere in the country

bhad bundy (Simon H.), Saturday, 2 February 2019 20:41 (eight months ago) link

Apparently the only less popular idea is killing all day kindergarten - since that idea was reversed the day after it first came out!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 3 February 2019 03:09 (eight months ago) link

Sad lol re OSAP changes fact-checking: http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=132&v=0VywtVQ3hPU

silent as a seashell Julia (Sund4r), Sunday, 3 February 2019 21:03 (eight months ago) link

goddamn fucking ONDP can't do anything right

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/02/06/ontario-ndps-improper-redaction-led-ford-government-to-leaker-sources/

bhad bundy (Simon H.), Wednesday, 6 February 2019 15:47 (eight months ago) link

RIP Paul Dewar :(

silent as a seashell Julia (Sund4r), Thursday, 7 February 2019 23:51 (eight months ago) link

Just saw that on the news. I always liked him.

jmm, Friday, 8 February 2019 00:12 (eight months ago) link

At the trivia contest I go to every year (47 tables tonight; we finished second, one point behind the winner), a variation on a standard American question: how many living Prime Ministers right now?

clemenza, Sunday, 10 February 2019 05:29 (eight months ago) link

Extremely drunk 2:30 am answer: Turner, Clark, Mulroney, Chretien, Martin, Campbell, Harper, Trudeau Jr?

silent as a seashell Julia (Sund4r), Sunday, 10 February 2019 07:36 (eight months ago) link

8 was also my guess but I'd be lying if I said I could name all of 'em

bhad bundy (Simon H.), Sunday, 10 February 2019 07:38 (eight months ago) link

You've got it. The thing that jumped out at me is that there's probably never been eight living presidents (currently five, about normal), even though it's us that doesn't have term limits. That list includes Chretien, who was if office for 10 years, and Harper, who was just shy of 10. What really skews our list is Clark, Turner, and Campbell. I'm not sure if totaled a year between them.

clemenza, Sunday, 10 February 2019 14:21 (eight months ago) link

"if they totaled"

clemenza, Sunday, 10 February 2019 14:22 (eight months ago) link

Public healthcare for the win?! (Maybe our PMs are just younger?)

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 10 February 2019 16:51 (eight months ago) link

Definitely Clark--elected one day shy of 40, out of office within a year. Overall, I think ours are younger: Trudeau, Campbell, and Harper were all in their mid-40s when elected, so that's four out of the eight.

clemenza, Sunday, 10 February 2019 16:58 (eight months ago) link

him, Martin and Campbell also did not last long at all, so that's probably making up for the longer term guys.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 10 February 2019 18:00 (eight months ago) link

Nice, Bernier going in on Scheer for not being conservative enough.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, 8 October 2019 00:57 (six days ago) link

I was listening to Angel Haze's "Echelon (It's My Way)" on the way to work this morning--there's a lyric in there that pretty much anticipates the whole Trudeau scandal. You'll have to look it up yourself.

clemenza, Wednesday, 9 October 2019 12:42 (five days ago) link

I apparently hate myself enough to tune into the second French debate.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 00:51 (three days ago) link

i think it would be more enjoyable for me, as i speak no french whatsoever.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 11 October 2019 00:57 (three days ago) link

no, i take it back. it will be annoying as fuck no matter what.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 11 October 2019 00:57 (three days ago) link

Have you considered leading the Conservative Party? xp

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 01:01 (three days ago) link

From what I gather, Bernier's solution to reconciliation with the First Nations is to privatize reserve land and build more pipelines.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 01:06 (three days ago) link

(Admittedly, I don't have a solution.)

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 01:14 (three days ago) link

I gave up. Comments on Radio-Canada's FB seem depressingly pro-Bloc.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 02:08 (three days ago) link

FB comments will always let you down.
tho i am kinda surprised how much the Bloc seems to be eating into the libs right now.

FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 11 October 2019 02:26 (three days ago) link

I apparently hate myself enough to tune into the second French debate.

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:51 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think it would be more enjoyable for me, as i speak no french whatsoever.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:57 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

no, i take it back. it will be annoying as fuck no matter what.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, October 11, 2019 12:57 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Have you considered leading the Conservative Party? xp

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r)

lol

pomenitul, Friday, 11 October 2019 09:20 (three days ago) link

so it's basically a tie now for seat projections according to polls and if the bloc keeps making gains it might be enough to give the conservatives a win (albeit a minority government)

this is depressing

Poll Tracker updated with significant movement in the numbers as the Bloc's gains in Quebec rob the Liberals of their seat advantage over the Conservatives. Liberals, Conservatives now virtually tied in both seats and votes, minority odds now 3:1. #cdnpoli https://t.co/5I1Dt3n1qW pic.twitter.com/322EHSSzzg

— Éric Grenier (@EricGrenierCBC) October 11, 2019

silverfish, Friday, 11 October 2019 14:56 (three days ago) link

Tory plurality could be OK, even good, if Grits were willing to form a coalition with the NDP. There seems to typically be resistance to that idea, though, even though it is 100% legitimate and democratic in a Westminster Parliamentary system.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 14:59 (three days ago) link

My riding used to be Gilles Duceppe's so it's fertile ground for a Bloc resurgence. Not voting Liberal is no longer a no-brainer, which is indeed depressing.

pomenitul, Friday, 11 October 2019 15:02 (three days ago) link

wow grenier's exact seat projection right now is the no majority coalition for anyone apocalypse scenario

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Friday, 11 October 2019 15:07 (three days ago) link

LIbs 139, Cons 136, Bloc 33, NDP 25, Greens 4, Bernier 1

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Friday, 11 October 2019 15:08 (three days ago) link

Oh wow, even Lib+NDP+Green would just add up to a plurality there, although that might be enough to govern. Con+BQ+PPC would add up to a slim majority, which might be worth it just to see them try to work together, if only for five minutes until they agreed on cutting funding for multiculturalism, restricting immigration, and devolving the rest to the provinces.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 15:22 (three days ago) link

if the BQ abstains from joining anyone I guess a Lib coalition could govern

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Friday, 11 October 2019 15:26 (three days ago) link

BQ with the balance of power would be interesting, I guess. I doubt any kind of minority government in this scenario lasts very long.

silverfish, Friday, 11 October 2019 16:07 (three days ago) link

At this point, since I'm not overwhelmingly convinced for or against any of Lib/NDP/Green, I'll probably be back to voting 'strategically' for the NDP, in the hopes that they'll have more representation to push a minority government or coalition to the left.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Friday, 11 October 2019 17:08 (three days ago) link

Is 338canada.com reliable? It's the only place that lists odds by riding that I can find.

wasdnuos (abanana), Saturday, 12 October 2019 17:32 (two days ago) link


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

So probably not especially? I don't think there is much actual riding-level polling information.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 18:36 (two days ago) link

There's a list of riding specific polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election,_by_constituency

Only about 50.

everything, Saturday, 12 October 2019 19:23 (two days ago) link

If Tories are polling second, maybe I should vote Liberal.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 19:54 (two days ago) link

All I care about at this point is blocking the Bloc, so I empathize.

pomenitul, Saturday, 12 October 2019 20:01 (two days ago) link

Hm, looking at the other ridings on that page, that seems to be the trend everywhere. NDP way down, Green way up.

jmm, Saturday, 12 October 2019 20:03 (two days ago) link

Tbf, a lot has happened since Sept 15. I'm p sure I was planning to vote Green then too. I did start to warm to Singh over May in the last few debates.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 22:19 (two days ago) link

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

Simon H., Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:08 (two days ago) link

To post a potentially controversial opinion concerning this moment that "struck an emotional chord with the leaders, viewers,... and the moderator"): https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/elargir-aide-mourir-question-touchante-lise-pigeon_qc_5d9fdce7e4b087efdbaba264

(Lise Pigeon, a 63yo woman in a wheelchair with MS and rheumatoid arthritis who experiences pain and incontinence, asked the party leaders at the last French debate about whether they would expand the 'right to die with dignity' in response to the recent Baudoin decision in the QC Superior Court; p much everyone said yes except Scheer who was vague; Trudeau committed to a 6mo timeline but did mention the need to balance individual freedom with protection for the most vulnerable.)

It's upsetting to our household that m/l the only instance of visibility and affirmation given to a disabled person throughout this campaign came when someone asked about the 'right' to get assistance with dying (a position that is far from a matter of consensus among the disabled). Whatever one thinks of this in principle, there is a lot (beyond health care coverage plans) that could be done to give the disabled assistance with living with dignity, which is a right that imo should be given at least as much priority. Trudeau spent a lot of time in the debates on provincial issues and the problems with Conservative Premiers in the country and what the feds would do in response to various provincial policies. Why no mention of Ford's brazen dismantling of Ontario's hitherto excellent system of home care for the elderly and disabled, something that has been making it possible for many people to live independent lives in their own homes?: https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/ontario-begins-dismantling-local-health-integration-system . Or the $1B in cuts to both welfare and disability support?: http://incomesecurity.org/public-education/ontario-budget-2019-announces-1-billion-in-ow-and-odsp-cuts/ . Or the proposed redefinition of "disability" when it comes to ODSP to align with 'CPP guidelines' (meaning that one would have to be unable to ever work again in order to quality)?

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:36 (two days ago) link

Or, if those specific issues are too provincial in scope, what is the federal plan to do something? (There was some discussion of long-term care in the first French debate tbf.) Why, when Singh's response to virtually anything else is "the root of this problem is inequality and the way Lib and Con governments only help their friends at the top", did he not have something to say about the social conditions that sometimes lead the disabled to that point of desperation?

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:40 (two days ago) link

I wonder how much the Liberals have benefitted from the emergence of "strategic voting" as a concept that's increasingly discussed openly

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time. It's hard to say, though: the Liberals dominated the country for most of the 20th century as well.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:45 (two days ago) link

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-singh-voters-election-pitch-1.5319507

NDP "is now polling solidly in third, have edged away from a tight race with the Greens in recent days."

Liberals opening campaigning for our strategic votes. "Trudeau targets NDP, says 'only way to stop Conservative cuts' is to vote Liberal". They benefit massively. When Trudeau was promising election reform last time around, the NDP had about 3 times the seats of the Liberals.

maffew12, Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:47 (two days ago) link

oops my latter quote is not exactly about strategic voting but it is a theme of this article.

A vote split between progressive left parties — New Democrats, Liberals and Greens — could be a factor in Canadian elections, and the NDP is trying not to fall victim to strategic voting at this time. "I believe people should never be voting out of fear," Singh said later in the day.

ah yes the progressive left Liberals

maffew12, Saturday, 12 October 2019 23:58 (two days ago) link

riding polls are really unreliable, main street research in particular has had some pretty giant misses in the last few years. I think an aggregator like 338 does as well as anyone could to predict each riding, but you can't poll a country with six parties in 338 different races with any degree of accuracy, especially because polling can't predict turnout among demographic groups, and will often miss a last week surge or a strategic decision (away from mulcair, and to trudeau, away from ignatieff and to layton or harper...)

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:00 (yesterday) link

anyway vote for whoever you like most in Ottawa Centre, your vote almost definitely won't matter anyway

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:01 (yesterday) link

There was an active nationwide strategic voting campaign in 2015; seems to be less of that this time.

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:06 (yesterday) link

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:12 (yesterday) link

fwiw I've seen a few viral tweets promoting it as a needed strategy to keep the Cons out

Is there anything like the Leadnow (iirc?) campaign from last time where they 'calculated' the best candidate to beat the Tories in any winnable riding and phonebanked everyone to vote for that candidate? That's the kind of thing I was referring to.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 00:43 (yesterday) link

I have seen this once or twice

https://votewell.ca/

Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 01:07 (yesterday) link

idk about phonebanking tho

Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 01:07 (yesterday) link

meanwhile

Federal Election Polling:

CPC: 31% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-3)
NDP: 19% (+5)
GPC: 10% (-1)
BQ: 7% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-)

Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / n=4037 / MOE 1.5 / Online

(% chg w Oct 2nd)

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) October 12, 2019

Simon H., Sunday, 13 October 2019 01:16 (yesterday) link

I get frustrated by how many people don't realize that voting Trudeau to stop the CPC only could work in...70 ridings? It's probably a bad strategy anywhere with a NDP incumbent, for example. And there are another 80 ridings that will go Conservative no matter what

+ esp in the Prairies, you can get Tory/NDP contests

(Votewell agrees with symsymsym re my riding, ha.)

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 03:19 (yesterday) link

CBC Poll tracker now has 51% chance of CPC winning the most seats (8% chance of majority): https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Sunday, 13 October 2019 03:24 (yesterday) link

lots of Tory/NDP races in BC too, where a vote for the LIbs helps scheer

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 05:37 (yesterday) link

that votewell seems good except that it says to vote liberal in jagmeet singh's riding

Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Sunday, 13 October 2019 06:42 (yesterday) link

Having to vote by mail puts a damper on my amateurish strategizing.

pomenitul, Sunday, 13 October 2019 09:43 (yesterday) link

Skewed public perceptions of the nature of immigration to Canada; fake news a potential suspect: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5316934?fbclid=IwAR2zCGgyyFvQ5W1NXaGlp6uRVAoXBqVkc3CowIPSVqDDeWCDN3LypQASSv8

although interestingly:

Despite the misconceptions found in the poll, the findings also suggested that a majority of respondents are fine with present levels of immigration.

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, 14 October 2019 00:27 (six hours ago) link

Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker has Liberals back ahead in the seat projections and NDP (and Bloc:( ) with consistent upward momentum.

Seat projections

LIB 141
CON 134
BQ 33
NDP 25
GRN 4
PPC 1

16% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
38% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
38% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
6% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, 14 October 2019 02:02 (four hours ago) link


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