ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Putin does seem to have a certain kind of obsession with Orthodox religion and Russian culture, in his own way:

https://news.artnet.com/opinion/putin-meeting-ukraine-war-2082708

What stands out most is the fervor with which Putin spoke about Russia’s “unparalleled cultural legacy.” It was bewildering to hear the Russian President discuss great repositories of artworks, sounding more like a parent boasting about a gifted child than the dispassionate politician I had seen on the news.

According to a Ukrainian ministry, at least one million archaeological artifacts were transported from Crimea to Russia in the years following the invasion. A coordinated looting effort of that magnitude would have likely required Putin’s approval.

Donetsk...is home to over 140 museums. The Donetsk Regional Art Museum alone contains rare Byzantine icons and numerous later icons that employ Byzantine iconographic style. From my limited interaction with Putin, I’m fairly certain he will want those treasures on Russian soil.

My impression then, as now, is that Putin fundamentally views the wonders of Russian museums as indisputable evidence of his nation’s superiority. And I wholeheartedly worry he will enrich them with treasures seized from Ukraine with a sense of entitlement.

The part about "the roots of his faith" in Kyiv, from the WaPo article linked by dow, may explain why he didn't do to that city what he's done to Mariupol and even the relatively "Russian" Kharkiv. Kyiv is an ancient city with enormous cultural and religious heritage. He can sign off on bombing civilians and apartment blocks there, and reducing its suburbs to dust, but so far it seems like churches are a no-go. Same with regards to the jewel city of Odesa, though it was built much later. Despite being in Ukraine, Odesa is a historically Russian city constructed during Catherine the Great's reign. It's an architectural showpiece of past imperial glory:

https://i.imgur.com/WhpjRDx.jpg?1

Putin likes to claim Kyiv as "the mother of all Russian cities," but it is Odesa which was an explicitly Russian project from the ground up:

https://i.imgur.com/Y1gVKXq.jpg?1

Then again, maybe the army doesn't have enough artillery/missiles for multiple cities, so he's been using them on the fronts he considers still winnable: Mariupol and Kharkiv. Elvis Telecom mentioned the possibility of using a tactical nuke on Kyiv, but aside from the international reactions, this would ruin Putin's big prize:

https://i.imgur.com/Eg04dmm.jpg?1

Still, he will probably keep escalating in one way or another. We've seen it recently with the introduction of thermite ordnance and the constant hints at a Ukrainian "false flag" chemical weapons attack that seem to foreshadow an excuse for the Russian army to use theirs. But if we don't buy the "insane Putin" theory there has to be a method to this madness. One way to see his position is: he's respecting what he sees as "Russian" heritage and cities, while destroying those of Ukrainians or borderline "Russian" cities that are insufficiently grateful for being invaded.

your posts are increasingly redundant and speculative, we get it, you hate Putin

also interesting that afaict you have literally not posted on any other ILX threads ever, after claiming years-long lurker status, do better.

his posts > your posts

xpost@sleeve

I was responding to the conversation about Putin's motives, his personal feelings re: Orthodox faith and Russian culture, that was going on for several posts above mine. I had had this article and some comments on it ready to go for a few days but hadn't posted it earlier because I figured it may indeed be redundant. Once people other than me started talking about it, though, I felt more comfortable posting it to hopefully add to the discussion. Plus, the pictures are very pretty.

If it helps you (or the other people implied by "we") to understand:

I (mostly) quit my day job very recently in order to pursue a history project that, whether or not it worked out, would save me from that midlife crisis of "if only I'd done X, things would have worked out differently." I was excited to follow my dreams, whether or not they worked out in the end. FINALLY, I'd have the time to do it justice, and was working on a rough draft of the first part of the series...when the war started in late February.

But here's the best part: the focus of this project, which I'd been thinking of/reading for/putting off for years up till now?

Russian history.

https://i.imgur.com/buLovyZ.png?1

MoominTrollin, have you read Timothy Snyder's book that's quoted in dow's post up there?

putin’s motivations are obviously important to trying to understand what’s going on, so i don’t see how they are redundant
but perhaps it’s time for a “what the fuck is happening in russia” thread

Yeah, it's not redundant to extend Putin's religious-historical visions or whatever into his treatment of the cities: I haven't seen any other comments about that, and it seems aptly speculative. Part of understanding this whole thing, as much as possible, is speculating, to some disciplined extent, and not just reacting to what's already happened, day by day.

xxpost@Slowsquatch

I saw some of his lectures on youtube after he published "The Road to Unfreedom," in 2018. I think that's the book mentioned in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/books/review/road-to-unfreedom-timothy-snyder.html

He frames current events through the two concepts of "the politics of inevitability" and "the politics of eternity." It was an interesting perspective on things like Russia after 2014, and Trump/Brexit in 2016. At the time, though, I'd mostly read him as a historian and not a commentator on current events. He was known for the book "Bloodlands" about Ukraine/Poland during the 30s and WW2.

if y'all could stop speculating on this thread, I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who would appreciate it, but hey I've only been here since 2005

There's plenty of news links. Yeah I've been here since '01, if you wanna compare wrinkled keisters. What are your thoughts on the Ukraine war? We need more POVs.

or Points of View, I reckon.

but perhaps it’s time for a “what the fuck is happening in russia” thread

I second this, think there are lots of questions and uncertainties now that don't involve Ukraine

if y'all could stop speculating on this thread, I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who would appreciate it

There's a discussion about this on the slack #threadcop channel, eh?

but perhaps it’s time for a “what the fuck is happening in russia” thread

I second this, think there are lots of questions and uncertainties now that don't involve Ukraine

You asked for it, you got it!

what the fuck is happening in Russia?

What are your thoughts on the Ukraine war? We need more POVs.

On this thread? No chance.

There's a discussion about this on the slack #threadcop channel, eh?

― underminer of twenty years of excellent contribution to this borad (dan m), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Tfw you cop on cops.

always gratifying to know that when one scents one's internet territory being pissed in by the wrong dogs, one can always fling out an 'interesting' or 'telling' rhetorical thinkyface

Is this the same sleeve who shit a brick because non-Americans were posting to the US politics thread or another sleeve?

lads

ILX is all about who will be permabanned next these days.

always gratifying to know that when one scents one's internet territory being pissed in by the wrong dogs, one can always fling out an 'interesting' or 'telling' rhetorical thinkyface

― imago, Tuesday, 29 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

Can always count on you to post bollocks.

Financial Times running an article that is 60-80% apologia for neo-nazism and then including a couple of paragraphs about how it's making liberals nervous. Of course the Henry Jackson society makes an appearance. pic.twitter.com/Mi73X1yGUH

— Luke's tweets delete themselves (@LukasMukasPukas) March 29, 2022

I don't know poster MoominTrollin, but I find their posts here to be of good quality.

yeah, I don't get the pushback.

⚡️Россия не против вступления Украины в Евросоюз - Мединский

— РБК (@ru_rbc) March 29, 2022

Interesting positioning from the Russian negotiators - that there are no objections to Ukraine joining the EU as long as NATO is off the table. Potentially makes it much easier to sell neutrality via constitutional amendment, with or without a referendum.

The big question is how the EU responds, I guess. There has been pushback on the idea of a fast-track process from the Netherlands, Germany and others, which is arguably fair enough given the extent of the reforms that would be required to bring Ukrainian institutions into line with EU norms, but there has to be some kind of light at the end of the tunnel and idk whether there is appetite for even considering it from the more fiscally conservative members.

xp Because we're a circular firing squad sometimes.

That's a good way to put it.

after being bombarded 24/7 with 🚨 BREAKING, PUTIN TO INVADE ANY MINUTE NOW 🚨 only for the situation to be gradually de-escalated is probably the clearest sign you'll get that the press are just stenographers for imperialist interests. add it to the chart next to WMDs

— pez 🇬🇭 (@periuspb) February 16, 2022
a more accurate take
― mardheamac (gyac), Wednesday, February 16, 2022 11:09 AM (one month ago) bookmarkflaglink

gyac otm

― bad milk blood robot (sleeve), Wednesday, February 16, 2022 11:18 AM (one month ago) bookmarkflaglink'

Clearly this is the kind of high-quality, well-informed commentary we need more of. Fewer posts from well-informed folks who are actually from the region and have followed its politics their whole lives, more from posters who don't remember the end of the Cold War but just heard a cool podcast about NATO expansion and also have you heard of the Azov battalion?

Yes, very foolish of us to think that the thing most actual doing it as a job analysts weren’t anticipating occurring would occur. Please, let’s leave this thread to people posting endless unformatted Twitter links and grievances with other posters that date back years.

"actual doing it as a job analysts" except for the ones actually watching troop movements on the ground. But yeah, chin-stroking didn't help predict this outcome, nor did wishful thinking.

You’re right, I’m absolutely delighted this happened and not devastated at seeing the damage to Ukraine and its people, a country I have visited on multiple occasions. What was your point beyond score settling?

this thread is stuck in a time loop like groundhog day

lads

A little something for us ILXnauts

The ILX slack channel is out of control:

https://i.imgur.com/mXFU9b7.jpg?1

All kidding aside:

I appreciate the people defending me...but after my original, ill-advised guns-blazing entrance here, I'm trying to start less fights and be a productive contributor. If anyone has constructive criticism please don't hesitate to share.

I'm not sure if this is aimed at me or someone else, but gyac raises an interesting point. Is there a way to post *formatted* twitter links as opposed to unformatted, and if so, what is the difference, and which one is better? Asking for a friend.

Is there a way to post *formatted* twitter links as opposed to unformatted, and if so, what is the difference, and which one is better? Asking for a friend.

Copy the URL for the tweet in question, but when you paste it into the posting window, change the prefix from https to http. This will cause the tweet to appear as a tweet.

Same thing goes for embedding YouTube videos, btw, for future reference.

It is difficult to keep track of the developments in the occupied territory. Here are observations from the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which I like many others monitor closely. A thread 🧵 /1

— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) March 25, 2022

Thank you. The ones I've posted have been showing for me as "real" tweets even with https, and as soon as I registered on ILX I started seeing other members' shared tweets as "real" tweets instead of just the text, so I didn't know any better.

Meantime...

This is really remarkable. Russia has now committed 70-75% of its entire military to the war, not just its BTGs. And they have failed to secure their original strategy. That’s why the maximalist strategy is now finally over, without the construction of a whole new army. https://t.co/lqg4wpdM1a

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 29, 2022

Moomin, yesterday:
Ihe part about "the roots of his faith" in Kyiv, from the WaPo article linked by dow, may explain why he didn't do to that city what he's done to Mariupol and even the relatively "Russian" Kharkiv. Kyiv is an ancient city with enormous cultural and religious heritage. He can sign off on bombing civilians and apartment blocks there, and reducing its suburbs to dust, but so far it seems like churches are a no-go. Same with regards to the jewel city of Odesa, though it was built much later. Despite being in Ukraine, Odesa is a historically Russian city constructed during Catherine the Great's reign. It's an architectural showpiece of past imperial glory

And according to "Odesa Residents Brace for Russian Invasion," an Associated Press report by Yesica Fisch and Cara Anna, Odesa residents say "Putin would be insane" to treat this city like he has so many others, but, "The only thing we're afraid of is that the other side has no principles whatsoever, " so thousands of people are declining to leave, and learning to use guns. Seems they're hoping he'll still try to come in with boots on the ground, overland or sea,sparing historical buildings the bombs and missiles at least.

...Odesa residents watch Russian warships coming closer, in provocation. Western officials call the Russian ships a mix of surface combatants and the kinds used to put naval infantry ashore.
The seizure of Odessa and the strip of land further west also would allow Moscow to to build a land corridor to the separatist Trans-Dniester region of neighboring Moldova that hosts a Russian military base.
A senior U.S. defense official said last week the U.S. didn't see indications that ships in the Black Sea were firing on Odesa as they had last weekend.
..."It's difficult to know what this indicates," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said of last week's bombardment. "Is it the prelude to an assault on Odessa? Is it a diversionary tactic to sort of hold and fix Ukrainian troops in the south so they can/t come to the relief of their comrades in Mariupol or Kyiv?"

Notable thread:

What do we definitely know about #Russian military casualties in #Ukraine? BBC in-depth research of verified military losses found some interesting tendencies \1

— Olga Ivshina (@oivshina) March 28, 2022

Reports of explosions and fire at arsenal near Belgorod https://t.co/JoHiexbaEt #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ApNOyggwfa

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 29, 2022

Could be sabotage by Ukrainian SSO/SOF, who have allegedly conducted operations in Russia over the past few years, but we should also keep in mind that there have been several explosions at Russian ammo depots in recent years due to lax safety standards. https://t.co/MN8Bykc4f9

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 29, 2022

Russian fuckups with ammo are common enough that a stressed situation likely got way worse

Yeah, some of you may remember this military depot explosion in Siberia from a few years ago:

http://i.imgur.com/BBTIarM.jpg?1

xpost@dow

There are no reliable sources for this, but about a month ago there was a big to-do about an amphibious assault on Odesa, followed shortly by the Russian ships and air support simply...leaving.

There was a spate of stories about a "MUTINY!!!" but without much verification; it may be that Russian soldiers refused to attack a Russian-speaking city, or that they quite rationally saw the attack on a well-defended position as a death sentence and refused to carry it out.

The (excellent) independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova has published Ukraine’s proposed ten-point peace proposal here:

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/ukraines-10-point-plan

I don't know poster MoominTrollin, but I find their posts here to be of good quality.

Same

Yes. You've come a long way baby! (ancient cig ad slogan)

(See because his first post, as he says, was not so hot, but he's yeah)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/europe/russia-reduce-assault-kyiv-plan-intl/index.html

Russia says it will reduce military operations around Kyiv following talks with Ukraine

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/world-news/kyiv-under-attack-hours-after-23538589

Kyiv under attack hours after Russian vows to scale back war in west of Ukraine

Heavy MLRS fire on #Kyiv Oblast tonight. pic.twitter.com/cKP2fovVEV

— Doge (@IntelDoge) March 29, 2022

"The invasion is going to facilitate a strong right-wing wave, which will greatly narrow the space for the Left in both Eastern and Western Europe. We shouldn’t disarm ourselves and open ourselves up to right-wing attacks. The vast majority of the European Left condemns Russian imperialism and understands that the invasion is leading to disaster, just like the American invasion of Iraq."

Putin's war in #Ukraine will foster a strong right-wing wave that will severely narrow the space for the Left in both Eastern and Western Europe. @Novossti spoke with @Volod_Ishchenko, one of the most prominent intellectuals on the Ukrainian Left https://t.co/OKOBBZSc6c

— Rosa Luxemburg Foundation (@rosaluxglobal) March 26, 2022

The (excellent) independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova has published Ukraine’s proposed ten-point peace proposal here:

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/ukraines-10-point-plan

― Scampo di tutti i Scampi (ShariVari), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 bookmarkflaglink

A few remarks in that interview align with the points in the proposal around EU membership and yet a neutral position overall.

@xyzzzz

After 2014, the story I kept hearing was that right wing movements got a boost because they were one of the few groups who were organized and ready to go when the Maidan protests turned violent.

After this war, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers with differing political views, and millions of non-combatatans will all have had the unifying experience of fighting or living through the war. No right-winger or fascist will be able to honestly say, though they will try, that somehow they "saved" the nation on their own, or that their efforts mattered more.

Left, right, center, the only people who will be marginalized are not leftists, but pro-Russia parties or individuals. Even there, we've got cases of former pro-Russia politicians who either changed their stripes during wartime, or else were so insufficiently quisling that they were kidnapped by Russian occupiers after refusing to cooperate:

Earlier this week, we learned that the Russian military abducted Alexander Ponomarev, a 🇺🇦 MP, who locals call the "shadow master of Berdyansk". His case is an example powerful member of the local elite, who refused to cooperate with the Russians. /14https://t.co/sWyh82xn3d

— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) March 25, 2022

You've posted several interviews with, or articles referencing the same person, Volodymyr Ischenko. I read some of his articles and found his descriptions of incomplete "Maidan"-like color revolutions interesting, but here's another take on him:

https://www.nihilist.li/2021/02/22/volodymyr-ishchenko-and-his-smear-campaign/

So while in theory Ishchenko advocates for a left-wing alternative to both Maidan and Anti-Maidan, in practice his support for the Anti-Maidan camp goes up to the point of whitewashing a notorious hatemonger. The united left built according to Ishchenko’s recipe would have a distinctly tankie face and a pro-Kremlin orientation, toeing the political line of stronger pro-Russian forces. Such a love for the ousted faction of Ukrainian kleptocracy from a leftist is beyond my comprehension.

Another plausible explanation is that Volodymyr may sympathize with pro-Russian right-wing populists and kleptocrats because of certain shared cultural conservatism, as this passage from his Globalizations paper may hint:

«The final source is the postmodernist turn of the left to the politics of identity, reconciling symbolic emancipation of the minorities with the unchallenged basis of the globalizing neoliberal capitalism. The agenda-setting article...firmly takes the side of progressive globalization against the conservative Russian nationalist project. Indeed, within the ‘bourgeois revolution’ narrative about Ukrainian conflict, (neo)liberals and the global capital are not the enemies of the left. Instead, they are allies against the local conservative reactionaries.

"The united left built according to Ishchenko’s recipe would have a distinctly tankie face and a pro-Kremlin orientation, toeing the political line of stronger pro-Russian forces. Such a love for the ousted faction of Ukrainian kleptocracy from a leftist is beyond my comprehension."

Nothing tankie from what I've read so far. Sounds pretty ludicrous. But again as Ishchenko says, any left-wing ideas could be smeared as pro-Russian in future.