what the fuck is happening in Russia?

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https://i.imgur.com/LGOxLiV.jpg?1

With details about post-Soviet politics, and links to relevant background sites, please.

The Quantum Superposition Platform - For Life (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 03:02 (six months ago) link

Many Western experts and politicians loved to repeat the story of "rich Russia and poor Ukraine". The fact is, that except of extra rich Moscow and Petersburg, Russia is an underdeveloped country, and average Ukrainian province lives much better than average Russian province.

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) March 28, 2022

The Quantum Superposition Platform - For Life (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 03:13 (six months ago) link

Thread above compares living conditions in Russia and Ukraine. Link below goes to a reading list from historian Simon Sebag Montefiore.

https://www.waterstones.com/blog/the-best-books-on-russia-and-revolution

In the Ukraine thread, we were talking about Timothy Snyder's 2018 book

The Road to Unfreedom
as one perspective on contemporary events in Europe and Russia. If anyone has any recommendations, please post them here as well.

The Quantum Superposition Platform - For Life (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 03:28 (six months ago) link

Yeah, I was looking at info that said Ukraine is 23% Russian speaking and like 25% of economic activity, and waaaay more broadly developed economically. I do get the sense it's Russia that's the relative backwater outside of Moscow St. Pete. How do typical (if such a thing exists) Russians see it themselves? Side: I was surprised at the annihilation of Mariupol given it is/was like 95% Russian speaking, but saw something that it was aimed at a particular Oligarch?

The Hon. Christian Sharia (R - MO) (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 29 March 2022 20:06 (six months ago) link

I've read a couple of things recently talking about the centralization of power and that the regions have been getting weaker in recent years, but that also the special military operation is sucking in a lot of Rosgvardiya from those regions?

I remember the Khabarovsk protests from a couple of years ago, where the police (Rosgvardiya?) didn't beat the protestors up (because they were supporting Furgal and the cops also supported him over Moscow?). Whats likely to happen in places like Khabarovsk?

anvil, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 14:06 (five months ago) link

@Hunter

How typical Russians see the situation inside the country, as well as comparative to Ukraine, is a tough question to answer and I'll need a couple days. It's also a bit of a moving target. Do we mean from 1991 to 2014, or 2014 to 2021, or during the war right now? For now, Kamil Galeev has published a series of threads on Twitter that delve into current affairs in Russia. He's not perfect but it's a good start. Regarding the oligarch in Mariupol, I'm not sure but I'll see if I can find anything. At this point the bombing seems like punishment for not surrendering fast enough. Mariupol also barely avoided conquest in 2014, and some people have argued that this is 'payback.'

@anvil

Once again, Kamil Galeev to the rescue:

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic...That will be the major factor of Russian collapse. It's not that regional authorities will suddenly declare independence. They won't, at least for now. It's that they will act in the best interest of their regions. Because if a catastrophe happens there, they'll be blamed for it.

In acting in the best interest of their regions under the deficit of literally everything they'll inevitably stock up, thus breaking supply lines and technological chains...

Russia won't fall because of collective morally justified action. It's cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later

Khabarovsk is an interesting case because it's about as far from the Moscow power center as you can get. You may have read that on the whole, this region tends to be more independent, hence Furgal's defiance and his arrest sparking massive protests.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/the-distance-between-moscow-and-russias-far-east-is-growing/

Despite the huge crowds of people, though, the protests did not change anything politically. For the center, it may also have seemed counterproductive to clamp down on them and risk an even bigger backlash. Why not just let them peter out like the Hong Kong protests a few years back? Then they could divide them up into new provinces:

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/New-provinces-in-Russia's-Far-East-will-reinforce-Putin's-centralism-53767.html

The operation is definitely sucking in Rosgvardia from all over Russia. Documents from soldiers in Ukraine, and some POWs themselves, have also confirmed this.* One bit of anecdotal evidence: a recent protester was called in to a police office was surprised to see it staffed exclusively by women. Maybe all of the men were gone fishing? Some are refusing to go, though:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-riot-police-dismissed-krasnodar-b2045577.html

*this could vary region by region, though. Judging by arrest videos from the last month, Moscow especially still seems very heavily staffed

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 26, 2022

The Quantum Superposition Platform - For Life (MoominTrollin), Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:04 (five months ago) link

TY.

Also Holy wow the length of that thread!

The Hon. Christian Sharia (R - MO) (Hunt3r), Wednesday, 30 March 2022 16:28 (five months ago) link

I've read quite a few of Kamil Galeev's twitter threads. I noticed he was talking about the role of organized crime recently (though I'm still not sure how distinct that is as a thing from siloviki?)

I saw an intervew with Khodorovsky from 2017 recently where he said Putin had lost much of his power and organized crime was running the show, but in his recent interviews he makes no mention of organized crime and seems to say Putin is running the show. I imagine he's not particularly trustworthy

anvil, Friday, 1 April 2022 07:50 (five months ago) link

I imagine he's not particularly trustworthy

Anvil do you mean Galeev or Khodorkovsky? I see Galeev as an interesting commentator but definitely not the last word when it comes to explaining Russia. I've seen some criticism of him on Twitter as well, and ended up following those people also, to get their own perspective as well.

If you meant Khodorkovsky, I've seen very little of what he has to say about Russia, and so can't speak to his trustworthiness.

The Quantum Superposition Platform - For Life (MoominTrollin), Friday, 1 April 2022 11:55 (five months ago) link

I meant Khodorkovsky (being untrustworthy) though I don't really know, just seen him saying contradictory things at different time, no that that necessarily means anything

Not seeing any particular reason to doubt anything I've seen that Galeev has said, a lot of it is opinion anyway but I've not read anything that seems untoward. I would unfollow if I got that sense

anvil, Friday, 1 April 2022 12:04 (five months ago) link

Has anyone else here seen Alex Gibney's doc on Khodorkovsky from 2019? It's a great doc, even accounting for Khodorkovsky's own interests and agenda. Curious as to what he's leaving out of the story.

Elvis Telecom, Saturday, 2 April 2022 06:44 (five months ago) link

Yes, I’ve seen. Enjoyed it but can’t remember much now, unfortunately. I do remember some acquaintance from Russian saying Khodorkovsky was “still a bad guy.”

Never Mind the ILX, Here's the Blecch Pistols (James Redd and the Blecchs), Saturday, 2 April 2022 13:04 (five months ago) link

Oh no, never mind, I saw the one from 2011.

Never Mind the ILX, Here's the Blecch Pistols (James Redd and the Blecchs), Saturday, 2 April 2022 13:05 (five months ago) link

How organic is this pro-russia convoy/rally in Berlin? I've saw there was one in Thessaloniki too, but I got impression that was local cranks/fascists and smaller and less organized.

anvil, Monday, 4 April 2022 10:08 (five months ago) link

Suggestions the moon is thinking of applying to join NATO meet a stiff response etc etc

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/12/russia-will-restart-moon-landings-says-putin-a77323

anvil, Tuesday, 12 April 2022 13:58 (five months ago) link

Maersk (you know, the #2 shipping company on the planet) leaving the Russian market.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQPrseLXIAUsGBw.jpg

but also fuck you (unperson), Thursday, 14 April 2022 15:49 (five months ago) link

Yes. That is huge.

Putin's bravado in the face of sanctions, announcing that the Russian Federation is large enough to go it alone, was nonsensical. If things continue along this road for another few years Russia will be reduced to a nation of starvation and chaos. Or else it will become a wholly owned subsidiary of China, Inc.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Thursday, 14 April 2022 18:06 (five months ago) link

two months pass...

Apparently Navalny is "missing"

“There is no such convict here. We do not know where Alexei is now and what colony they are taking him to,” Alexei Navalny's press secretary, Kira Yarmysh, said https://t.co/c37hXp0iQM

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) June 14, 2022

StanM, Tuesday, 14 June 2022 18:16 (three months ago) link

Putin knows that if he has Navalny killed he will be strongly condemned by the great majority of the international community, for the 250th time.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Tuesday, 14 June 2022 18:25 (three months ago) link

I was thinking about the Belarus protests the other day and how they dissipated. I'd read that initially Lukashenko had been employing old brittle monolithic soviet style propaganda and which was ineffective. But at a certain point had brought in Russian propagandists (or Putin forced them on him?) and changed tack to the more purposefully contradictory, disorienting, flexible, 'post-truth' stuff we're familiar with elsewhere - turning protestors against each other, sowing division and distrust

I can't tell if Russia's internal propaganda and media messaging is kind of moving in the opposite direction, a more brittle monolithic messaging, tighter control. I feel like February and Z IS an explicit change from passivity to energized population, that seems to lead simultaneously to a stronger dog but a weaker lead

anvil, Wednesday, 15 June 2022 05:00 (three months ago) link

https://i.insider.com/62a7160ba464ed0019583628?width=800&format=jpeg

The hurried rebranding means employees are seemingly scribbling out the Golden Arches from McDonald's ketchup packets to reuse for Vkusno & tochka.

the McNuggets are now apparently just called.. 'nuggets'

Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, 15 June 2022 21:22 (three months ago) link

one month passes...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYHS91TWYAAB44K?format=jpg&name=medium

calzino, Wednesday, 20 July 2022 14:28 (two months ago) link

Destroy both says everyone else.

Tom D: I was in the army (Tom D.), Wednesday, 20 July 2022 14:43 (two months ago) link

Did Z a solid by knocking ukraine out of the world cup tbf

Led By Honkies (Bananaman Begins), Wednesday, 20 July 2022 15:01 (two months ago) link

Moscow-vetted queen what?

big movers, hot steppers + long shaker intros (breastcrawl), Wednesday, 20 July 2022 16:02 (two months ago) link

I've read a certain amount about Ukrainians forcibly taken into Russia (1.5-2m), but not really all that much about why. Other than attempting to crush any dissent and intimidate. But is there more to it? Whats their longer term plan for them?

anvil, Tuesday, 26 July 2022 19:17 (two months ago) link

There's a bunch of articles I've seen but they're largely about the process itself: filtration camps, destinations as far away as the other side of Russia (Vladivostok, for instance).

The initial explanation for getting them out of Ukraine is that in places like Mariupol, Russia either did not allow, or simply shelled and shot up the corridors to Ukraine; refugees were thus 'encouraged' to go in the other direction, sometimes given to understand that it's as simple as "you can die, or go to Russia."

There doesn't seem to be any rational, or even irrational 'policy' reason for this to be happening except for the very dubious PR factor of making it look like Russia is taking in its poor, long-lost Ukrainian 'brothers.' There is even an underground network of Russian volunteers working hard to get them back OUT of the country, for ex: through the border by Georgia, or to the Baltics through St. Petersburg.

There's also the fact of the declining Russian birth rate and the numerous cases of kids being separated from their parents, or orphans being taken into the country, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it is *the* reason because it's too malicious and depressing to contemplate.

Then again, as is often the case in this war: the cruelty is the point.

State Planning Committee for Color Revolutions (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 26 July 2022 19:42 (two months ago) link

On the subject of destroying England but not Wales, I remember devouring books about nuclear war when I was younger - because of "Two Tribes" and nuclear paranoia - and one of them pointed out that a chain of about six megaton-range nuclear groundbursts in a line parallel with the England/Wales border would render England uninhabitable for decades. By extension England also means London, which means the entire United Kingdom.

Looking at NUKEMAP this does appear to be the case, because the prevailing winds are from the west and southwest. An 800kt bomb detonated on Portsmouth would spread fallout over London, which wouldn't destroy the city but would tank the economy, because no-one is going to want to work in the Square Mile if they have to spend every day locked inside a hermetically-sealed bunker. It would be futile burning £50 notes in the faces of homeless people because they would all be blind.

In real life the Russians did apparently have Cardiff on their target list. There was even a nuclear survival bunker in the city. Wisely the people who designed it didn't put it underneath a large building, unlike in Threads:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60244090

I do wonder how the average Russian feels about Ukraine. Especially bearing in mind that sharp generational gap. From a British perspective the only remotely comparable scenario would have been an invasion of Ireland during the height of the Troubles, perhaps on the back of the discovery of North Sea Oil. Ted Heath would have been pilloried by the international community, particularly the United States, but he could have argued that Britain was self-sufficient. But it's very difficult to comprehend something like that happening so it's hard to put myself in the position of a Russian person contemplating a mechanised invasion of next door.

A while back some Russian soldiers were irradiated after being ordered to dig trenches in the vicinity of Chernobyl:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-chernobyl.html

Supposedly because none of the soldiers had heard of the Chernobyl disaster, because they were born in the 2000s and it just isn't featured in the Russian media. Does the average Russian teenager even know that Ukraine is a thing? They're unlikely to go there on holiday, so why would they even know it exists?

Ashley Pomeroy, Tuesday, 26 July 2022 19:53 (two months ago) link

I do wonder how the average Russian feels about Ukraine.
...
Does the average Russian teenager even know that Ukraine is a thing?

This was linked earlier in the Ukraine thread but might be new to you:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03/feeling-around-for-something-human

I haven't seen this yet but it appears to cover the same ground:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qmQs2LbnaE

State Planning Committee for Color Revolutions (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 26 July 2022 20:06 (two months ago) link

English subs, of course.

State Planning Committee for Color Revolutions (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 26 July 2022 20:07 (two months ago) link

There's also the fact of the declining Russian birth rate and the numerous cases of kids being separated from their parents, or orphans being taken into the country, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it is *the* reason because it's too malicious and depressing to contemplate.

This is what I had been wondering about, I'd not seen it mentioned explicitly, or even implicitly really. The declining birth rate, ageing society, population pyramid are a problem, but it being perceived as a problem is another matter still, nevermind thinking 'lets steal people' being a solution! And yet...over 1% of the people in Russia are Ukrainians that have been taken

anvil, Wednesday, 27 July 2022 04:39 (two months ago) link

i think sending it ties into a scheme ongoing since the 2010s or before and obviously connected to what happened in the previous century to rebuild the far east demographically, turning it into a viable asia pacific logistics and trade hub. there haven't been many takers for resettlement schemes. but ukrainians don't have much choice, i guess. tass reports 2800 people will be sent to primorsky or khabarovsk by the end of the year: https://1sn.ru/bolee-800-ukrainskix-bezencev-pribyli-v-xabarovskii-i-primorskii-kraya-za-poslednie-sutki.

XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Wednesday, 27 July 2022 11:14 (two months ago) link

New Yale study says that whatever the Kremlin is claiming publicly, their economy is going to hell in a hand basket:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-imploding-sweeping-sanctions-corporate-exodus-yale-study-2022-7

Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 29 July 2022 21:59 (two months ago) link

three weeks pass...

so close- what a tragedy

Left, Sunday, 21 August 2022 11:46 (one month ago) link

Denazification begins at home.

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Sunday, 21 August 2022 13:40 (one month ago) link

Is this more likely to be FSB or similar?

anvil, Monday, 22 August 2022 04:46 (one month ago) link

Compact magazine claimed that Dugin and his daughter are "anti-fascist"—This is total bullshit.https://t.co/Db9Lvu9laM

— John Ganz (@lionel_trolling) August 22, 2022

xyzzzz__, Monday, 22 August 2022 14:56 (one month ago) link

"The war in Ukraine is not happening in isolation. While Russia is contesting the US-led security order in Europe, China is challenging it in Asia. A geopolitical transition has begun whose results may not be fully apparent for decades. But the post-cold war order that has governed the world for the past 30 years is drawing to a close. From its demise, a new balance of power will emerge."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/six-months-war-putin-ukraine-russia-nato-energy-prices

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 23 August 2022 07:57 (one month ago) link

Meanwhile in Russia

📅 Today marks 83 years since the signing of the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the USSR.

📹 Watch our retrospective video for information on the state of affairs in Europe prior to the signing of this document.

🔗 https://t.co/0oj5eo5QbC pic.twitter.com/mxyonaFXDt

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) August 23, 2022

Mearsheimer-Leninism is a hell of a drug (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 23 August 2022 17:03 (one month ago) link

they missed the bit out where hundreds of thousands of the Red Army died/got captured because Stalin wouldn't believe his own NKVD agents' multiple reports on an imminent invasion. But I agree with some of the Brit bashing!

calzino, Tuesday, 23 August 2022 17:14 (one month ago) link

Speaking of Brit bashing -

On the one hand, the 1939 William Strang mission to Moscow was a last-ditch effort doomed to failure. On the other hand, why the fuck did they pick this guy to begin with:

During the late-1930s, Strang was a member of the Anglo-German Fellowship, which was pro-Nazi.

Strang became of interest to an undercover MI5 agent, Eric Roberts, who was operating under the pretense of working for the Gestapo, with the intention of identifying potential fifth columnists. In 1943, he reported on one of the diplomat's female friends who was possibly his lover.[5] Unaware of her connections, Strang had told her "that he personally hated the Jews and regarded the Bolsheviks and the Jews as the two greatest enemies of all that is decent".

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Tuesday, 23 August 2022 19:29 (one month ago) link

Not exactly outlandish views in the Tory Party at the time I would have thought.

Buckfast At Tiffany's (Tom D.), Tuesday, 23 August 2022 19:33 (one month ago) link

Stafford Cripps didn't have much success in Moscow either. Maisky noted in his diary that they much preferred negging with out and out Tory shits rather than Labour people of the British left.

calzino, Tuesday, 23 August 2022 19:49 (one month ago) link

Zelenskyy has ratified Law 5371.
Workers now have no right to bargain, and trade unions cannot protect them. pic.twitter.com/SUauiTqmaH

— The International Magazine (@TheIntlMagz) August 23, 2022

xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 24 August 2022 08:34 (one month ago) link

Russia's best and brightest are firebombing military conscription centres. https://t.co/ezH1eatNdG

— libcom.org (@libcomorg) August 24, 2022

https://theins.ru/en/politics/252885


This train is on fire: how Russian partisans set fire to military registration and enlistment offices and derail trains.

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Thursday, 25 August 2022 15:10 (one month ago) link

Loving the sneaky lil Z in Unionize there

anvil, Thursday, 25 August 2022 15:24 (one month ago) link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa-8CIEagAAfcJF?format=jpg

Some disturbing news coming out of Latvia by the looks of it too

anvil, Thursday, 25 August 2022 15:28 (one month ago) link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN0pdUTUYAQSqVj?format=jpg&name=small

On tbe other hand, they look to have found some good news in Kherson

anvil, Thursday, 25 August 2022 15:31 (one month ago) link

The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows. ⬇️ /1

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Sunday, 25 September 2022 15:38 (four days ago) link

Seems to be "troops" from the separatist regions who are behind a lot of the more egregious behaviour carried out by the Russian forces - which makes sense, civil war and all that. I saw an interview with a young guy from one of the areas recaptured by the Ukrainians and he said the actual Russians weren't that bad but that the separatists were "crazy".

Narada Michael Fagan (Tom D.), Sunday, 25 September 2022 16:15 (four days ago) link

Sounds like a typical ilxor tbh.

― xyzzzz__

i'm pretty open about it tbh, my entire existence is spent in this state of shell-shocked brezhnevian malaise.

Kate (rushomancy), Sunday, 25 September 2022 16:27 (four days ago) link

Come for what the fuck is happening in Russia?, stay for what the fuck is happening on what the fuck is happening in Russia?.

dow, Sunday, 25 September 2022 16:46 (four days ago) link

when the supply chain started breaking down i gave up. when i was a kid i was told that the reason america was better than the soviet union was the strength of our supply chain. the soviets, on the other hand, suffered random supply chains, random gluts. you couldn't plan for anything, it was more, well, what's going to be available this week?

i stopped being able to make plans a long time ago. the leaders i guess are still making noises and putting out their usual propaganda. there is no point in listening. they are talking to please themselves. what am i going to learn? why are the flags flying at half-mast this week? the dangers of enemies, domestic and foreign? half of the time i am one of the "enemies" they are warning against.

or perhaps they will tell me how much they care about trans people, this government that has for three years failed to listen to my pleas to call me by my legal name. every time i tell someone they are outraged and they assure me they will correct the problem immediately. i never hear from them again. my name is not corrected.

i have a strong work ethic. i like to work. i believe in work. what are they paying me for? what am i accomplishing with my work?

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack, i will have a breakdown and i will go on short-term disability and they will teach me how to better deal with My Problems. this is the only thing that can be done.

My Problems are the only ones i have the power to deal with. therefore it follows, does it not, that the best thing is to act as if the only problems that exist are My Problems. if there is a problem and it is outside of my ability, what good does it do me to dwell on it?

so i go back to my job in healthcare, where every day for the past several years i see people dying of preventable diseases, and what do they do? they call me a hero! a hero, like batman, or like stakhanov. see what good an ordinary man can do?

oh, or woman, of course. an ordinary woman. or an ordinary non-binary thing. person. thing. of course it does not matter what gender you are. you must understand this is all very new and it is very difficult for us.

the russians, sting tells me, love their children too. did my parents love me? very much. very much. did they hurt me, neglect and abuse me? yes. very much.

america loves me. america _cares_ about me.

Kate (rushomancy), Sunday, 25 September 2022 17:17 (four days ago) link

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack

you have to understand, the problem wasn't _really_ that i was afraid that we were all going to die, it was that my marriage was falling apart. that was what i learned in my treatment program. certainly nobody except for me and my ex can be held accountable for this. our workplaces were both very supportive of us during covid. they didn't want us to go into the office and spread diseases. we could work from home. they were responsible, they cared about us, and a lot of people were not as fortunate as us.

so we were responsible too. we spent all that time just with the two of us. we didn't talk to anybody else, because other people, you know, other people were not so responsible. we didn't want to be responsible for someone else's death due to our own selfish negligence. was it stressful, just the two of us together, nobody else, nobody to support us except for _the internet_? yes, certainly, but there is no reason for me to begrudge my employer and the wiser minds in my government their _concern for the general welfare_. obviously that had to be of the utmost importance.

but of course at the same time one couldn't... one couldn't hold people who were selfish and negligent responsible for that. is it _fair_ that sociopaths should reap the rewards while the rest of us bore the costs? doesn't matter. it doesn't matter what is fair or just, what matters what is _practical_, and the most _practical_ thing is to allow rich sociopaths to profit while we suffer.

the most practical thing for my ex and i was to sell our house, which we loved, which we hoped to grow old in together, and move into separate squalid rooms neither of us can quite afford on our own. people tell me that i will be happy for this, one day, that it opens so many more opportunities for me. like many russian people, i am used to people telling me things that i do not believe, and accepting their words without complaint.

Kate (rushomancy), Sunday, 25 September 2022 17:54 (four days ago) link

Jeez the end of that xpost ChrisO thread of the two economists:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%. 31/

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

dow, Sunday, 25 September 2022 21:36 (four days ago) link

And how such decimation will contribute to

... Russia currently has manpower shortage with ever shrinking working age population

― anvil, Sunday, September 25, 2022


Reminding me of how decimation of working age population in WWI contributed to conditions leading toward Great Depression and WWII.

dow, Sunday, 25 September 2022 21:43 (four days ago) link

As an old WASP male American Deep South hepcat hubcap, I know some of where you're coming from, MoominT, re the frustration, rage, nausea, and struggle with default kneejerk cynicism, which can be a kind of survival mechanism and deadly for others, also plain worthless---I know it better looking over the shoulders of some Black commentators---glimpsing what they and you and Russians (and others) in Russia know more of---glad that some of the latter are making it across the border, so far---

dow, Sunday, 25 September 2022 22:04 (four days ago) link

That podium has seen some shit.

― borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:02 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

That's one motivated looking military force

― I've seen things you people wouldn't belieeeeeeve!!! (Matt #2), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:15 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Not going to link it here, but there's a video of one of those officers getting capped by a mobilized man in Úst-Ilimsk earlier today.

peace, man, Monday, 26 September 2022 11:27 (three days ago) link

(not those specific officers, but same role different city)

peace, man, Monday, 26 September 2022 11:28 (three days ago) link

A young man shot and wounded the chief recruitment officer at a military enlistment station in Russia’s Irkutsk region on Monday, local authorities said, as thousands of fighting-aged men continued to flee the country to escape being summoned to duty in President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The alleged shooter in the attack on the recruitment chief, at a military commissariat in Ust-Ilimsk, a small town in Irkutsk, apparently was distraught that his close friend had been called for duty despite having no prior military service.

Putin, announcing the partial mobilization, had said only experienced servicemen would be summoned. “We are talking about partial mobilization,” the president said in a national address. “In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.”

But there have been a torrent of reports all across Russia, including from ardent supporters of the war, of people being summoned for duty despite having no prior military service, or being too old or otherwise physically incapable of going to war.

Karl Malone, Monday, 26 September 2022 15:31 (three days ago) link

And now---well, search with "Kremlin admits mistakes" (re mobilization)

dow, Monday, 26 September 2022 15:44 (three days ago) link

BREAKING - Russian FSB security service says it has detained Japanese Consul in Vladivostok - RIA - Reuters News

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) September 26, 2022

SincereLee 'Scratch' Perry (President Keyes), Monday, 26 September 2022 15:46 (three days ago) link

twitter pundits are weird, so what is chris o saying, that if "russian civil society" doesn't collectively decide to hold mass protests against putin they're the ones responsible for any conscripts who die in the ukraine, because "russian civil society" has a "choice"?

god as if my monday wasn't shitty enough already

Kate (rushomancy), Monday, 26 September 2022 15:54 (three days ago) link

Unrelated to The War, but interesting:

MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin grants Russian citizenship to former US security contractor Edward Snowden.

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) September 26, 2022

but also fuck you (unperson), Monday, 26 September 2022 16:12 (three days ago) link

So they can draft him!

nickn, Monday, 26 September 2022 16:18 (three days ago) link

I don't usually read much Twitter punditry, but was struck by this study he quoted, posted upthread:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%.

dow, Monday, 26 September 2022 16:40 (three days ago) link

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did, and i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

Kate (rushomancy), Monday, 26 September 2022 17:14 (three days ago) link

also the curse of three letter acronyms strikes again, i can only read that as "do not resuscitate" troops, i can imagine that losses among soldiers who have DNR orders on file would be pretty severe

Kate (rushomancy), Monday, 26 September 2022 17:16 (three days ago) link

I thought it was the Department of Natural Resources, who are more accustomed to citing hunters for going over their bag limits or doing life-jacket checks on recreational watercraft.

peace, man, Monday, 26 September 2022 17:25 (three days ago) link

i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

She repudiated Glenn Greenwald, but that's probably not what you were thinking of.

SincereLee 'Scratch' Perry (President Keyes), Monday, 26 September 2022 17:27 (three days ago) link

now i'm wondering what the correlation between repudiating glenn greenwald and taking estrogen looks like, i mean it's a small sample size but i, too, repudiate glenn greenwald

seriously edward snowden not transitioning is a fucking tragic blow to humanity, the guy looks like abi thorn pre-transition and look how _she's_ turning out

Kate (rushomancy), Monday, 26 September 2022 17:31 (three days ago) link

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did

this seems uncontroversial

death generator (lukas), Monday, 26 September 2022 17:55 (three days ago) link

.. anyway, what the fuck is happening in RUSSIA

scanner darkly, Monday, 26 September 2022 20:53 (three days ago) link

A few hundred (mainly female) protesters gathered in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk earlier today to protest mobilisation

While performing the Yakut Osuokhai folk dance they shouted "no to war" and "no to [Yakut] genocide", local media report https://t.co/DZlvHcXRAI pic.twitter.com/MBiukhr8Pl

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) September 25, 2022

They chose an interesting staging ground for the protest; the statue in the background is of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platon_Oyunsky

A Yakut communist, playwright, translator, statesman, and eventual victim of the Great Purge, he was posthumously rehabilitated in the 1955; a statue of him was erected in 2003.

I kept searching trying to figure out who it was but the results kept coming up with Lenin, whose statue has graced the main square in Yakutsk since 1967. Despite being described as Yakutsk's "cultural heritage," however, its future remains uncertain. Critics point out that plans for it to be refurbished this year have run into budgetary difficulties: not all of the funds necessary have been allocated.

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Monday, 26 September 2022 22:00 (three days ago) link

Newly mobilized Russians are told what they need to take to the war. Spoiler - pads and tampons.
(English subtitles) pic.twitter.com/CumYqqpuit

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2022

borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Monday, 26 September 2022 22:16 (three days ago) link

also in the bizarro russian news: “a petition to provide vegan and vegetarian military rations has gathered over 25000 signatures”

scanner darkly, Monday, 26 September 2022 22:41 (three days ago) link

'ask your family to send tourniquets!'

geez that inspires confidence

Andy the Grasshopper, Monday, 26 September 2022 22:54 (three days ago) link

Looks like enlistment/mobilization centers being set up at the Georgian border at the main Verkhnii crossing. If true, looks like effecticvely like a partial border closing

Questions about the capacity of Georgia (and to lesser extent Armenia) to absorb anti-mobilization Russians (also maybe between March exiters and September exiters)

anvil, Tuesday, 27 September 2022 09:17 (two days ago) link

welp, the votes are in, everybody wants to join the Russian Federation - that's democracy in action

Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 27 September 2022 20:16 (two days ago) link

Solovyov gets drafted and goes crazy. pic.twitter.com/bd8lMf4zFi

— RealSubtitles (@R82938886) September 27, 2022

President Keyes, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 15:48 (yesterday) link

A weird people in my uneducated opinion

Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 28 September 2022 15:51 (yesterday) link

RIP red tie man

nashwan, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 15:55 (yesterday) link

I do not think those are real subtitles.

peace, man, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 16:16 (yesterday) link

If they are, that's a really weird exchange

Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 16:17 (yesterday) link

click through and it’s made very clear they’re fake comedy subtitles

Clay, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 17:22 (yesterday) link

yeah not really sure what’s the purpose of this tweet or the fact that reposting it might not provide the necessary context.

the original exchange is revolting - and should be presented as such.

scanner darkly, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 19:31 (yesterday) link

in the actual bizzaro russian news: those who are drafted are advised to buy and bring their own supplies. clothing, first aid etc

which essentially means: you can buy better chance of survival - if you can afford it.

scanner darkly, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 19:38 (yesterday) link

if Russia wanted to preserve the illusion that they're still a world-class fighting force, this incursion has pretty much shattered it.. creaky old equipment, poorly trained & supplied troops, a chaotic command structure, rampant corruption, looting, etc. They have plenty of cannon fodder, but that's about it.

Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 19:59 (yesterday) link

i’m holding slight hope it’s these kind of news that will contribute to mass discontent - because this is something that they can’t blame ukraine for

scanner darkly, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 20:05 (yesterday) link

.. or the west

scanner darkly, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 20:05 (yesterday) link

in the actual bizzaro russian news: those who are drafted are advised to buy and bring their own supplies. clothing, first aid etc

This was an issue with American troops in Iraq 2 as well, iirc.

peace, man, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 22:07 (yesterday) link

I was gonna say.

i need to put some clouds behind the reaper (PBKR), Wednesday, 28 September 2022 22:25 (yesterday) link

maybe we just need one general what the fuck is happening thread

scanner darkly, Wednesday, 28 September 2022 22:32 (yesterday) link

#onethread

Kate (rushomancy), Wednesday, 28 September 2022 22:34 (yesterday) link

What do Russians think of the Pitchfork 90s lists?

how the fuck do you leave off Yegor i Opizdenevshie??

frogbs, Thursday, 29 September 2022 00:52 (sixteen hours ago) link

from meduza:

sources close to kremlin say the russian government is not in the rush to annex because the "PR effect during mobilization will be close to zero". they also say the kremlin understands that russians haven't been convinced yet the annexation is necessary, although the official propaganda says the regions are economically beneficial, and referendums followed by annexation is an absolutely "normal process" - including the west (quoting such examples as texas joining the US).

there is also the thinking that such a delay would leave some room for negotiations. although currently the main headache for moscow is the wide spread discontent due to the mobilization. the kremlin conducted a closed survey and the results were not to their liking.

it appears the plans to block the borders for any men within the drafted age group are on hold for now - "we underestimated the amount of people trying to flee and we can't risk it - because we don't have enough enforcement".

scanner darkly, Thursday, 29 September 2022 00:56 (sixteen hours ago) link

reminds me of playing Command & Conquer, I know exactly what point in the game he's at

frogbs, Thursday, 29 September 2022 02:19 (fourteen hours ago) link


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