"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

a lot of v nice polls today

links pls ty

yeah no sign the race is tightening and even if it is half the vote is in already

here's Qunnipac:

Quinnipiac:

Biden +3 FL
Trump +1 IA
Biden +7 PA
Biden +5 OHhttps://t.co/j0mhcreiJC

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 29, 2020

+5 in Ohio is a real surprise, I pretty much assumed Trump had it in the bag

But what if Trump gets literally every vote from now on?

yeah I thought biden was doing better in Iowa than Ohio

poller probably mixed them up

classic pollster error

nice poll

Joe Biden leads in North Carolina, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state
Biden 48, Trump 45
Cunningham 46, Tillis 43
Cooper 51, Forest 42https://t.co/S1ytZ3cbj9

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 29, 2020

nice poll

Biden leads the final Monmouth poll of Florida
Biden 51, Trump 45 ('high turnout')
Biden 50, Trump 46 ('low turnout')https://t.co/ZjQBH8EBJ8

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 29, 2020

https://s7.orientaltrading.com/is/image/OrientalTrading/FXBanner_808/north-pole-nice-list-certificates~13956960.jpg

this is handy if you want to get into looking at individual polls (which is now way to live, but i'm not one to judge)

Large pollster house effects this year, especially from Trafalgar:https://t.co/J6tX06EGae pic.twitter.com/YXpSehzeBr

— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) October 29, 2020

note quinnipac. you probably don't want to look at their polls individually.

Even if some of those are delusionally skewed, I cannot imagine Trumpoids looking at those numbers/trends and feeling confident & happy

note you cannot just add those numbers to polls and get the right answer. if you could it would be easy. but it gives you an idea of tendencies.

from NC, a Trump +4 state in '16

60% of the likely electorate said they had already voted, and they backed Biden 55-39. Party reg was D40, R31, so very close to the current state figures (39-31)

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 29, 2020

Those same voters said they backed Clinton 39-35 in 2016. If that's right, then a lot of the Trump-->Biden swing is already banked here

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 29, 2020

right xxp. you can argue that the polls are off in an absolute sense, but unless they're becoming _more_ off, it looks to me like things are shifting toward biden on average in these final days. that would make sense given what is going on in the world. but who knows.

it's not out of the question that they're becoming _more_ off btw. weird things happen to polls in the final week. sample sizes go up, herding is stronger, etc.

cannot wait for this to be over btw i'm going insane.

It's really not enough for Trump to lose on Tuesday. I want the Republican party driven into the ground so hard that newspapers will be forced to send out reporters deep into "Biden country" to understand what took them all by surprise.

the big wildcard here is when UPS is gonna find the Hunter Biden package that Tucker lost

cannot wait for this to be over btw i'm going insane.

It's like sitting in a waiting room because the doctor called you in to discuss the results of your biopsy and now the doctor is running an hour late. Try flipping through an old copy of Esquire to distract yourself.

and the Esquire is covered with COVID.

recently did just that! but no magazines!

Early vote count now 80 million. Three milestones of a sort to look for:

90 million -- why because round number

94 million -- this would be a full doubling of the 2016 early vote total

100 million -- round number but also just a massive amount all around as noted earlier in the thread, 2/3 of the projected vote total and 1/2 of the estimated US electorate as a whole.

newspapers will be forced to send out reporters deep into "Biden country" to understand what took them all by surprise.

Sadly our local diner is closed for indoor service but I will happily stand on my porch with a cup of coffee and dispense folk wisdom about a political campaign that finally took normie liberals like me seriously

lmaooooo his own advisors are telling him the Hunter story is a dud

"Lock him up!" chants directed at Hunter Biden morphs into "Where is Hunter?" chants. It's a hate movement.

"They're calling me up, 'sir, you shouldn't be speaking about Hunter. You shouldn't be bad things about Biden b/c nobody cares.' I disagree," Trump says. pic.twitter.com/ZeBy063bfZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 29, 2020

haha

xpost - Nope, they'll just stick with profiles on the sad Trumpers who get completely blindsided by the loss because orange baby man promised them a win.

god damnit I'm reading the "I disagree" part in the Adam Sandler Uncut Gems voice

I would have believed Tucker more if he had said his dog ate the top-secret Biden documents.

You guys are really underestimating the possibility that Tucker's secret documents include time travel schematics in addition to Hunter Biden dirt, and that he will travel back in time, months and months, to where that information might matter, to the handfuls of people who even care.

Why is he standing in front of that sunglasses/car selfie meme?

xps

This is from the vote counter Wasserman relies on rather than Elections Project; this fellow has higher numbers overall so I'm always a hair cautious (lowballing seems safer on this front) but:

MAHALO, HAWAII!
You're the first state to exceed 2016 turnout...just got confirmation from a Honolulu reporter.

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 29, 2020

Texas still on track to exceed 100% at some point tomorrow.

o'wahoo!

Ned's covered this a lot already, but the early vote totals in Texas are the most shocking and almost unbelievable thing to me. Early voting there is currently at 94% of the 2016 total turnout. Either election day is going to be a ghost town in Texas or turnout is going to be massively higher there than in 2016.

yeee my home state of hawaii doing me proud xp

and I just saw that Ned mentioned Texas literally two posts above me rather than like two days ago. sorry!

Haven't seen it mentioned, but it's worth noting that right now, 90% of eligible voters in Philadelphia are registered to vote, the highest numbers since 1984.

Anybody got any good leads on where to donate to orgs in Texas that are driving people to the polls/generally getting the vote out?

read that as donate organs in Texas

Physically driving people to polls is going to be a problem this year because of physical distancing. I'm not sure how covid-19 is curtailing that kind of GOTV activity, but I'm guessing that it's going to limit it pretty severely.

xp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp-pU8TFsg0

Anyway, borrowing from the scale Kilgore Trout on Twitter has popularized in terms of trashing Trump's use of his time, here's how to think of that time left:

Today: 20% of time before the election
Tomorrow: 25%
Saturday: 33%
Sunday: 50%
Monday: 100%

And in terms of anything changing much or causing a change, nothing is happening.

Should readjust the amount of time against the percentage of the electorate already having cast ballots.

Indeed!

BLOOMINGTON, Minn. (AP) — Trump administration officials on Thursday stripped Endangered Species Act protections for gray wolves in most of the U.S., ending longstanding federal safeguards and putting states and tribes in charge of overseeing the predators.
The U.S. Department of Interior announcement just days ahead of the Nov. 3 election could lead to resumption of wolf hunts in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin...

And what is Biden doing to secure that coveted 19-55 wolf hunter demographic?

My Resignation From The Intercept

The same trends of repression, censorship and ideological homogeneity plaguing the national press generally have engulfed the media outlet I co-founded, culminating in censorship of my own articles.https://t.co/dZrlYGfEBf

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 29, 2020

defend the indefensible: glenn fucking greenwald

tyvm

And what is Biden doing to secure that coveted 19-55 wolf hunter demographic?

You're snarking but this is a live political issue in northern Wisconsin. Lots of people see grey wolves as pests and dispute that they're still endangered.

But I don't think this is going to move votes for him in the parts of Wisconsin where he's really hurting (traditionally Republican Milwaukee suburbs.)

Yeah I was going to say, surely this is more of a sop to the predisposed.

"We will prevent nasty grey wolves from moving into your beautiful suburbs!"

Do Wine Moms Dream of Electric Sheep