uk ilxors weren't stupid for hoping and people who are despairing right now aren't stupid for despairing
― Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 14:54 (four years ago) link
you can come up with another word for 'believes that election results aren't likely to be correlated w/ polling data'.
― iatee, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 15:42 (four years ago) link
young voters are undercounted because they don’t use landlines, i totally read that
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 15:44 (four years ago) link
every time Trump says "Sleepy Joe" there are a bunch of disgruntled Bernie supporters tweeting "holy FUCK he's gonna get 500 EVs" and it's super annoying
― frogbs, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:07 (four years ago) link
he is an unstoppable force, though also extremely stoppable by the guy who polled worse against him than joe biden
― iatee, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:23 (four years ago) link
I try to convince myself that "trump is gonna win" as an emotional shield in case it happens, plus the idea of investing in "biden is gonna win" is fucking sad (admittedly "trump is gonna one-term" appeals).
OTOH, what I sometimes think about is a friend's dad who voted for trump. He's a middle-class white guy who is literally in the infrastructure business and actually bought the idea that trump being pres would help him. But he's also married to a South American immigrant, and while I don't know him personally I am reasonably sure there's no chance he'll vote for trump again. I imagine there's at least a few other people like that, and I can't see anyone switching to trump at this point—even as hyperbole, "he's gonna win every goddamn state" makes you look like a dumbass. Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."
― dip to dup (rob), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:29 (four years ago) link
Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."
this
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:31 (four years ago) link
ultimately Trump had two big selling points for persuadable voters in 2020 - "at least the economy is doing well" and "yeah he's an incompetent racist dumbass but none of that really affects ME...", and now we're in a situation where millions are losing their jobs, 100,000 Americans will die, and the economy is cratering, and a lot of that can be traced back to Trump's incompetence. I just don't know who he *gains* in 2020.
― frogbs, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:34 (four years ago) link
like one thing I heard a lot in 2016 was "what's the worst that can happen, things already suck for us and the Presidency is mostly a show job" and well, now we know
― frogbs, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:36 (four years ago) link
can we lock this thread?
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:38 (four years ago) link
all true, but also
none of that really affects ME.
He could lose a few handfuls of voters out of sheer stupidity. I mean I haven't looked up the numbers or anything, but another thing to consider: I am a straight white man who normally isn't subject to trump's attacks...except I'm an immigrant (I was a baby, but it's not like I forgot)
― dip to dup (rob), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:38 (four years ago) link
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, April 21, 2020 9:38 AM (thirty-three seconds ago)
If we do I’m gonna have to post “Trump is gonna win” when I’m stressed out in other threads instead of this one which I made so I wouldn’t do that!!
― silby, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:39 (four years ago) link
ftr, I approve of this thread's existence! Give me a few weeks and I'll probably post something stressed out myself; I almost did after watching Biden on Desus & Mero
― dip to dup (rob), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:42 (four years ago) link
― silby, Tuesday, April 21, 2020
I'd prefer that option; this is just one more thread to worry about.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:45 (four years ago) link
I appreciate your concern for my acid reflux I guess!
― silby, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:45 (four years ago) link
By the way, we're long past the containment point and have moved on to the mitigation phase.
― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:50 (four years ago) link
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)
could you say more about what's worrying you about this thread?
i'm not bothered by people who don't pay attention to the polls. i don't pay attention to the polls. honestly, few things drive me up the wall more than the constant horse race talk, the constant "what will the voters do", because how anybody else votes is, for the most part, completely outside my control. the plethora of "what ifs" and and game theory, i used to indulge in that, and it now comes across as an attempt to control what has been for quite a long time for quite a number of people an uncontrollable situation.
i'd rather people talk about their honest feelings than about how, not to pick on anyone, but how someone else's dad is going to vote. i'm not sure how to concern myself with that and stay sane. we've got some strong challenges among us, and i'd like to see us learn how to be kind to each other, and horse race talk goes nowhere towards accomplishing that.
― Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 16:56 (four years ago) link
― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)
how do you know so much about silby's acid reflux
US Politics, April 2020 -- Where's the Vax Returns?
Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:08 (four years ago) link
I’m in a pissy mood so my optimism is gone, to the point that I can’t helping noticing this thread assumes any kind of certifiable election come November. If we even manage to have an election with a grain of integrity, too few congress members have demonstrated their willingness to stand up for the results of an election that doesn’t come out their way.I feel particularly helpless when I consider that a hostile foreign entity doesn’t even have to impact voter rolls or systems, they just have to boost the message that it’s plausible they have. Just the suggestion would cause enough chaos to destabilize us.Things are going to get way worse before they get better.
― unashamed and trash (Unctious), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:17 (four years ago) link
trump is not going to win
― treeship., Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:24 (four years ago) link
Things are going to get way worse before they get better
I have a memory of a He-Man episode where he said it.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:27 (four years ago) link
I only quote the greats
― unashamed and trash (Unctious), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:30 (four years ago) link
the whole Biden-Burisma-Hunter Biden thing imo is a GOP attempt to make the Bidens the new Clintons, because they were so successful demonizing the Clinton name among their base, and they think they did the same thing effectively with Obama, but that's not what happened there (that was simple racism). I don't think it's as effective with Joey B because he just doesn't have the charisma needed to inspire that kind of polarization
― she carries a torch. two torches, actually (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:34 (four years ago) link
I think the Burisma stuff will stick because it is pretty transparent corruption and it doesn't matter that Trump is worse in every way, we know the rules don't apply to both sides equally.
Will it matter enough to influence the campaign? Who knows? Will a President Biden get hearings out the ass about it and do a lot of damage to his agenda? Fuuuuuuck yeah.
― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:40 (four years ago) link
feel like if trump had a son that was addicted to crack, had an affair with his dead brother's wife, and had a job on the board of a Ukrainian gas company despite not being remotely qualified purely due to his father's clout the democrats would be trying to make hay with that also
― COVID and the Gang (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:42 (four years ago) link
good points
― treeship., Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:43 (four years ago) link
biden is a much worse candidate than Clinton and she lost. and trump has the benefit of incumbency. I would put a decent chunk of change on trump winning if the odds weren't so lousy
― COVID and the Gang (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:44 (four years ago) link
I think "Burisma" is pretty standard conflict of interests, no more or less corrupt than in any administration in which its satraps have kids wanting to make money on Daddy's name. I don't think anyone gives a shit outside TrumpWorld.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:44 (four years ago) link
I'd still say history is on Trump's side, but his epochal victory in 2016 needed a particular set of circumstances to happen again. A shame Jim Comey isn't in the FBI no more.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:45 (four years ago) link
hillary would've made a better president than biden but biden is the better candidate bc he isn't loathed by a large % of the country
― Mordy, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:46 (four years ago) link
if it wasn't for the virus and the subsequent economic catastrophe, i would think was in good shape to win. as it is i don't think so.
― treeship., Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:46 (four years ago) link
biden will hang on by a thread but by the time it's over the burisma story will have been repeated so many times that he will be tainted in the eyes of a lot of america. and maybe that is to be expected but it still sucks.
― treeship., Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:47 (four years ago) link
trump has the benefit of incumbency.
Maybe in Politico-world. Here on Earth, Biden has the benefit of Trump's incumbency. The dude was underwater with the public on the day of his inauguration, and every single day since then he has proved himself manifestly unfit for his office. Unless you've got the memory of a fucking goldfish (or are a political journalist, but I repeat myself), Trump has massively damaged his own reelection prospects. As all honest polls indicate.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:47 (four years ago) link
the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together and you notice ppl who want to damage his campaign are focusing on the senile one bc they don't think the corruption charges are going to resonate v well. ppl generally like biden / find him affable and authentic. ppl found hillary cold, guarded and so corruption charges really resonated when made against her.
― Mordy, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:48 (four years ago) link
the thing about smears is they have to work in the greater narrative. ppl will try to smear anyone with anything but only certain smears work and those are the ones that resonate both with a particular voterbase in a particular time and against a particular candidate who magnifies and reaffirms those charges.
Two words why Carter lost in 1980: Billy Beer.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:49 (four years ago) link
MILLIONS OF AMERICANS HATE DONALD TRUMP WITH THE FURY OF A THOUSAND SUNS. Never let yourself forget that fact. Every time you think about the election, think about that first.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:49 (four years ago) link
Counterpoint: this is the kind of standard issue corruption that everyone has dealt with (the boss's shithead son who's dumber than a box of rocks), innately hates and feeds into the basic cynicism most people have about 'career politicians.'
Trump's corruption (personal and familial) is a little more obscure to people because the scale is so different. They don't know anyone who sold a multi-billion dollar building because of their father-in-law (but they do remember that shithead son).
― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 17:59 (four years ago) link
the "biden is senile" and "biden is corrupt" arguments don't work together
Of course they do. He was corrupt for much longer than he's been senile.
I'm not so sure the Burisma story is gonna be pushed as much as everyone assumes it will - for one, who cares when we're in the middle of a pandemic, for two, this is literally the thing Trump got impeached over, and for three, after 4 years of Ivanka and fucking Don Jr. in the public spotlight I'm not sure if the nepotism line of attack is gonna win over anyone
― frogbs, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:28 (four years ago) link
if the second wave scientists have warned us about happens in the fall, few beyond the loudmouths yelling outside Whitmer's office will give a good goddamn about Burisma.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:29 (four years ago) link
oh, god, you want me to read those threads? i'm not sure i have the stomach for it, sorry alfred
i guess more i'm wondering why you feel the need to keep up with this one? because i think we have different approaches to politics, and i want to be respectful of those differences.
― Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:31 (four years ago) link
Actually, that's my point -- there's no difference between this thread and the "Joe Biden sucks" thread.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:33 (four years ago) link
― frogbs, Tuesday, April 21, 2020 3:28 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
it worked for arcane matters of IT security (i.e., her emails)
― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:36 (four years ago) link
idk if i agree, although i can see why the difference might seem a bit arcane. there are all kinds of reasons trump might win and most of them are unrelated to the suckiness of joe biden... but all people ever seem to want to talk about is joe biden's qualifications or lack thereof as a candidate as if that's the only important consideration. people keep talking past each other, talking about different things. and neither of us, really, have the luxury of disengaging, of not caring, and that is painful.
― Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:45 (four years ago) link
email thing was so effective because there were millions of people in this country who were conditioned to believe Hillary was corrupt but couldn't quite articulate why outside of shouting "BENGHAZI" over and over
― frogbs, Tuesday, 21 April 2020 19:53 (four years ago) link
― frogbs, Wednesday, April 22, 2020 2:34 AM (three hours ago)
I assume the panic is not over former Hillary Clinton voters switching to Trump, but Trump keeping a fervent base and other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden, and also the election not going ahead in even the normal shitty national US fashion.
― donald failson (sic), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 20:01 (four years ago) link
i'd agree with sic here - the panic is more about who actually casts a vote in this election. i totally understand, given this, why my saying that i'm not planning on casting a vote in that particular race might be deeply concerning to a lot of people.
― Kate (rushomancy), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 20:10 (four years ago) link
other voters not being able to hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden
Your mistake is in assuming that the majority of Democratic voters will feel the need to hold their nose to vote for Joe Biden. America is not ILX. America is not Lefty Twitter. Joe Biden is a popular politician - much more popular than Donald fucking Trump, who, again, millions and millions of people actively hate.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, 21 April 2020 20:12 (four years ago) link