A question about climate change/global warming.

Over their lifetimes, current Chinese coal gassification projects will emit three times the carbon as a fully developed Canadian oil sands.

These schemes are also intended to help out the Chinese coal industry, with 70% of firms now operating at a loss.

Are you there, God? It’s me, climate scientist.

I'm taking a side discussion from the latest US politics thread here, damn the torpedos.

On climate change I'm afraid that them moving past outright denial isn't necessarily any kind of progress on the issue. It's getting to where outright denial is becoming politically untenable and I'm convinced that they long ago mapped out their future strategy of morphing from 'it isn't happening' to 'it's too late to do anything about it/it doesn't matter what we do cause China and India'.

― viborg, Tuesday, December 10, 2019 6:53 AM

Office buildings are being evacuated in Sydney because the fire alarms won't stop going off. the Prime Minister says it's "not the time" to discuss whether climate change is involved, is approving more coal mines, refuses to meet with firefighters or allot emergency services any emergency funding, but is pushing one piece of legislation today: to make it legal again to refuse employment or services to gay and trans people

― insecurity bear (sic), Tuesday, December 10, 2019 9:12 AM

Australian politics is a bit baffling to me because at first glance it seems significantly better than the USA but then you look more closely and it seems a lot less pleasant. I will maintain that this reflects the campaign of disinformation I argue for particularly in light of friggin Rupert Murdoch's influence in both countries. Also there was some serious progress with carbon pricing under Julia Gillard's leadership afaik but I'm no expert there.

Of course meanwhile in Brazil you have Jair Bolsanaro basically arresting firefighters accused of starting the massive fires there this past summer (and he's also accused Leonardo DiCaprio of arson).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-environment-wildfires/brazil-frees-volunteer-firefighters-accused-of-setting-amazon-blazes-idUKKBN1Y22AX

So yes denial is still strong, fair point. And I'm not trying to claim there's some center of climate change disinformation plotting all of the lies and bullshit being spread on the issue, a lot of my perspective is just from reading somewhat informed discussions online with a range of views that sometimes includes FUD (basically, Reddit etc). But it wouldn't be hard to present a case for some consistent unified strategy for denial and disinformation being deployed throughout the media landscape, with funding largely originating from a few central culprits.

(Hope this isn't totally redundant, I'll read the whole thread but just recovering from wallowing thru a few other massive threads. The one about the end of the golden age of the internet -- so many thoughts!)

Global Warming's Terrifying New Math gets more action, most of it is good excepting my recent contributions.

And I'm not trying to claim there's some center of climate change disinformation plotting all of the lies and bullshit being spread on the issue

there are two centers: the koch brothers and the oil and gas industry supply the motives and the money, and bullshit front organizations like the heartland institute provide the public face

It is a mistake to believe that the climate disinformation campaign was NOT a deliberate choice made by powerful people who saw the prospect of government action to regulate fossil fuels as a direct threat to diminish their wealth and power and acted to protect it through sowing doubt, fear and anger among the public. It was exactly that and nothing else.

The real mind-fuck is that the fossil fuel regulation they fought so hard in the 1990s would not have *destroyed* their wealth and power, but would only have temporarily diminished it, allowing them to transition their capital holdings over time to a new and sounder footing, where no doubt they would have maintained their all-mighty position at the top of the heap anyway. The criminality of it is simply stunning.

Aimless otm

Also there was some serious progress with carbon pricing under Julia Gillard's leadership afaik but I'm no expert there.

yeah, this is the case, emissions dropped significantly. but much like the US has aimed to revoke every humane advance of the first black president, Gillard was the first female prime minister, sooooo we have increased emissions to above the previous levels in the years since she was deposed.

All otm. The US Chamber of Commerce is another org with a horrible record on the issue. It would be interesting to see some kind of chart of what lies are being pushed most strongly at the moment based on Twitter bots etc. In terms of just stats I also wonder about the significance of the energy industry for the economies of Australia vs the USA. It's tiny in the UK in comparison I guess.

It is a mind fuck and to me it seems incredibly shortsighted as well, I try to understand their motives a little bit but the worldview of an energy industry executive to me seems almost as foreign as Genghis Khan.

sic, really interesting point -- I see much of current US politics as a backlash against the first black president and was wondering if there was a major backlash against carbon pricing in Aus as well but maybe the gender factor is even more major.

don't even get me started on the chamber of commerce, neither national nor local. it's the most cynical anti-everything that could negatively affect the expansion of the collective business bottom line that could exist, and nationally was started as a bullshit balance against the labor movement

more insidiously, local groups sponsor "young professional" groups that are ostensibly social mixer situations where you can also do business networking. after the diminishing of local groups that were more civic-minded, the chamber-sponsored one got much larger. later, some people were shocked when the most shitheaded conservative politicians were invited to speak to the chamber -- their parent organization! -- despite that being the status quo all along

Shitheels all of them.

I missed the link to the Global Warming's Terrifying New Math thread there, I thought that was more for specifically science and data-focused talk. (Also it's a shame it doesn't have 'climate change' in the title, I tried searching for it but forgot the exact wording at first.)

It's about 5 years overdue for a "Herein we commiserate about our mutual assured destruction in the climate crisis" thread, but aside from the Grimes thread at ILM, my threads disappear into the memory hole...

was wondering if there was a major backlash against carbon pricing in Aus as well but maybe the gender factor is even more major.

Bigger factors are Murdoch's domination of all media being finally entrenched by Facebook (the last two remaining broadsheets in the country sold themselves to a commercial TV company last year), and the LNP's twin-factor reactionary reinforcement, but the sexism throughout Gillard's tenure (a productive legislative one) was monstrous, and openly led by Abbott, the next man elected PM after her: he campaigned in front of signs reading "JuLIAR" and "burn the witch."

Office buildings are being evacuated in Sydney because the fire alarms won't stop going off. the Prime Minister says it's "not the time" to discuss whether climate change is involved

Air levels in Sydney are still eleven x above "hazardous", smoke is filling indoor shopping centres, and employers are withholding pay from workers who are declining to work outdoors.

twin-factor reactionary reinforcement

ie that leads them to run back to the petty kickbacks of the coal lobby - note that our current elected PM publicly worked as a coal lobbyist while in Parliament as a minister - as well as overturn actual progressive advances when given the chance.

https://1v1d1e1lmiki1lgcvx32p49h8fe-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/scott-morrison-coal-joyce-aap-960x540.jpg

poxy fule?

dunno why I'm getting poxyed, so piece by piece

^ this good Christian refuses to fund firefighters, so they are literally begging on gofundme for oxygen instead of working in dust masks

meanwhile he did fly to smoke-ridden Sydney on Sunday, but to attend a purpose-unknown private event at a riverside polo club (currently on sale for $75 million, if you're looking), not to address any fire-related issues

https://www.christiesrealestate.com/sales/detail/170-l-86-f1906121203700007/sydneys-premier-polo-club-in-an-idyllic-setting-by-the-hawkesbury-river-sw-2753

and today has fronted a presser to assert that he "completely rejects" Australia's last-place ranking on the global index of climate policy, because the ranking is "not credible."

Denial is working juuuuuuust fine.

(Christies link didn't wanna embed)

Firefighters are being told to shut down the crowdfunding. ffs.

Update: the firefighters have been advised to stop crowdfunding for money to buy facemasks that will stop them from being taken to hospital for smoke inhalation.

As with climate change's contributions to these months-long fires, it turns out that 'during the fires' is not the time to discuss whether or not they will literally die while volunteering to save lives and homes and ecosystems and species. This should be considered at some future time, after a months-long scientific research and evaluation process. The dust masks they currently have will obviously keep working if they just believe hard enough. Perhaps if they collapse after fighting fires without breathing protection or pay for 12 hours, it's because they haven't donated enough to the PM's multinational grifter megachurch? Get a research and evaluation process onto that, too.


(Note that the linked story reports Morrison has today announced $11 million in additional firefighting funding. This appears - he won't clarify - to actually be $11 million that he has announced twice, has been held up without reason for two years so far, and if it turns out to be real this time, won't be approved until sometime after February. To be fair, he probably expects the fires to still be going in February.)

(hollow) lol xpost

some comparisons:

one concentration camp contractor is on a $1.9 billion five-year contract

a contractor that transports concentration camp prisoners has won 115 tenders to date, from $160k to $78 million (https://www.tenders.gov.au/Search/KeywordSearch?keyword=skytraders)

Morrison initiated a $158 million program to put priests into schools
(reminder: his own pastor, whom he tried to bring to the White House, obstructed police investigations into the multinational child abuse committed by the pastor’s father / founder of the church)

he spent $185 million on reopening a single concentration camp, and millions per month keeping it open, with a single family detained there

he commissioned a statue of Captain Cook in his own electorate for $60 million

in six years of government (and three elected & two unelected prime ministers) his mob have given $7.7 billion in subsidies to fossil fuel companies.

https://data.junkee.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/sydneysmoke.jpg

the rural fire service office in Sydney's west was evacuated because their smoke alarms went off

Deputy Prime Minister last month said that only "raving inner city greenies" believed in climate change, today has said that it's really meddling kids responsible - “Most of these fires are being caused by little Lucifers running around with matches and firestarters and creating havoc" - in response to the state's Energy & Environment Minister noting that this is the hottest year in state history, surpassing last year, which was the hottest year in state history, and that record drought is a cause of extreme bushfires, which scientists predicted.

(one 16-year-old, and one 19-year-old volunteer firefighter, have been charged with starting fires. there are over 100 fires currently burning the state.)

The Amazon fires burnt 906,000ha. 10,000,000 have burnt so far in Australia, and existing fires are expected to continue into next year.

It's getting to where outright denial is becoming politically untenable and I'm convinced that they long ago mapped out their future strategy of morphing from 'it isn't happening' to 'it's too late to do anything about it/it doesn't matter what we do cause China and India'.

The leader of the federal opposition party is advocating to increase coal exports, saying it will make no difference to climate change because those countries would get it from somewhere else if we don't sell it to them. Denial of the processes and outcomes of climate policy aren't functionally different from denial of climate change's existence, imo.

update: smoke in Sydney alone, where the fires aren't, is currently estimated to be impacting the economy by $50 million a day.

A day.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-economic-cost-of-bushfires-on-sydney-revealed-up-to-50-million-a-day-and-rising-20191212-p53jbq.html

(no paywall on bushfire coverage)

Heatwave forecast for next week, with temperatures likely to reach 120° F in some areas. Probably this is normal, and likely to put the fires out, right?

I have a board meeting with the liberal funding, climate change denying m, coal baron chairman of our board next week. I’m spoiling for a fight, particular because it’s in Sydney and my wife is coming with me on the trip and I ave had to buy here particulate masks because of her asthma.

sic your last series of updates have just been O_O

wtf is wrong with this world

Private money in politics, and the Murdoch propaganda networks, for starters.

Not sure about the first, re these updates - it mostly flows in the other direction, and certainly didn't help Turnbull at all - but the latter was a foregone conclusion when Fairfax outsourced to Pagemasters, let alone finally deciding to float Domain. Gutting of successive ABC budgets while allowing foreign company Facebook unfettered to destroy local news publishing are the two biggest factors and are of course the government's direct action/inaction, but I'm not sure what you mean by "private money in politics," and think ideology is the motivator in the first, and ignorance in the latter.

Here are some sample maps comparing the area that has burnt so far, if any UK or American folk are checking this thread and would benefit from the comparison:

https://i.imgur.com/BsUdXCw.jpg

The Prime Minister went to Hawaii for a holiday this week without bothering to inform his office, hours after Australia & Brazil sabotaged international climate policy meetings (and possibly to meet his pastor, who has just finished a promotional tour in the US?). The fires are still burning. Blazes are approaching the largest valley in the Blue Mountains west of Sydney, Australia's largest city (briefly picture what you imagine happens to the trees in, around and above any valley during a fire, whether or not it's part of a substantial mountain range). Temperatures have indeed come close to 50C/120F this week in some areas. There is still no additional funding for volunteer firefighters, and the government has not made any statement of plans to address the fires or people or homes or businesses or fauna affected (it is probable that koalas, let alone less-known and less-populous species, will go extinct in the coming decades as a result of the fires).

Political denial continues to be entirely acceptable. However, multiple historical contractors are declining to enter into tenders with the latest coal mine run by an Indian billionaire, that has already received $4.4 billion in subsidies from the government. A single joint on one pinky of the Invisible Hand, twitching faintly?

(Re-reading my previous post: by first and latter I mean ABC budgets first and Facebook latterly; apologies for lack of clarity.)

*opens thread, laughs nervously, closes thread and walks into traffic*

Thanks for your posts sic. Certainly seeing how intolerable conditions have become in Delhi and now Sydney which will hopefully push efforts to organise action against these projects.

This is Melbourne today:

https://i.imgur.com/Yeyi4Mf.jpg

Melbourne is 700km (450 miles) from Sydney.

The Prime Minister is still (secretly) on holiday in (probably) Hawaii, but footage was dug up earlier in the week of him criticising the police chief of Melbourne for pausing to have dinner on one single day of bushfires in 2010.

At protests outside his official residence (he's using one near his personal home and church, not living in the same city/state as the government) yesterday, ten-year-old schoolgirls were threatened with force by police. Police were using "move on" powers conferred in 1998, when a minister responsible declared in parliament that they would never be applied to protestors.

The Acting Prime Minister told the protestors... well, told reporters elsewhere - that they are "wasting your time" and should "Go and donate your time to Meals on Wheels and something like that."

Two young fathers died fighting fires yesterday, and Saturday is forecast to be the most severe day in the five weeks so far that the state of New South Wales has been at "catastrophic fire danger". The PM has finally made a response to the fires in the wake of these latest deaths, via Instagram, saying he will return from his (secret) holiday "as soon as can be arranged." Qantas, Hawaiian Airlines and Jetstar all fly direct 10-hour flights, and Air New Zealand or Fiji Airways have 14-15 hours flights with stops, so his delay must obviously prove that he's actually somewhere else?

fucking hell.

I'm so absolutely sorry you have such craven arseholes for leaders during such a genuine national crisis Australia. fucking hell.

Its not amazing for mental health I can tell ya

Nor ecosystems of course

the five weeks so far that the state of New South Wales has been at "catastrophic fire danger"

nb: this level had to be added above 'extreme' in 2009. no idea why it didn't exist before that, if the earth's climate has been stable for thousands of years? probably the fucking nanny state fearmongering for profit. let's privatise the fire service, so that the profit motive is removed.


*checks notes, sees the word "volunteer" in front of "firefighters" 10 times per page, throws notes in a bushfire and flies to Hawaii*

The federal energy minister, unrelatedly under police investigation for forging a document that he used to attack the Lord Mayor of Sydney as a climate hypocrite, has assured people that it doesn't matter if the Prime Minister comes home early: "I’m sure he’s coming home ... He’s coming home soon anyway. He’s finishing up his holiday this week."

The area burnt so far is larger than Belgium, but! smaller than Moldova. Multiple firefighters homes have been burnt while the firefighters were being hospitalised for burns received while fighting fires elsewhere.

Fires have now started in a third state, with Catastrophic warnings issued for six of fifteen active fire regions there.

(BTW: while the catastrophic-level fires in NSW have been burning for less than a month and a half, the year's bushfires actually started in winter. It is currently summer in the southern hemisphere.)

Today is forecast to reach the highest recorded average temperature across the entire continent. (C O N T I N E N T)

Yesterday broke the previous record for the highest temperature across the continent. No big deal though, it had only been set on Tuesday.

worth a scroll through the replies on this Member Of Parliament's tweet, after reading the bio

Love how the inner city elite wet themselves when they see some smoke blows between them and the next high rise apartment block. Perhaps next time vote for an MP that doesn’t blacklist backburning and fire prevention measures.

— Andrew Laming (@AndrewLamingMP) December 18, 2019

The Acting Prime Minister told the protestors... well, told reporters elsewhere - that they are "wasting your time" and should "Go and donate your time to Meals on Wheels and something like that."

Incidentally, Meals On Wheels have requested the government to increase their funding from $40 million to $80 million, so that users of the service are paying only for the ingredients. 40% of elderly Australians are either malnourished or estimated as being at risk.

In four months since the request, the Acting Prime Minister's suggestion that 10-year-old schoolgirls cook and drive the meals, or take over as social care visitors, is the most substantive response to the funding proposal.

A BBC report on the fires gets a lot of info into five minutes. There;s no doubt that the BBC has been weakened and the news operations stacked with tories, but the LNP governments have gutted funding for the Australian equivalent, the ABC, over the last 18 years, and followed their re-election in May by having feds raid journalists' homes and enter the ABC headquarters with a warrant allowing them to access or delete any content on servers, from workers' emails arranging lunch, to the entire library of broadcast programmes and news rushes.

Shortly after his election, Scott Morrison raised the pay of his personal staff in the Prime Minster's Office. Unlike most public servants, they're on close to $200,000 a year.

Two weeks ago, because the public service is a waste of money, he abolished the federal Arts department, and the Department of Education.

14 months ago, a schoolgirl put a needle in a strawberry and told her friends at school that she had bought it like that from the supermarket. Morrison rushed to television and parliament to impose a penalty of 15 years gaol for putting needles in strawberries.

On multiple occasions this week, the staff in the Prime Minister's Office have refused to state whether the PM is in the country, refused to confirm if the Acting Prime Minister is Acting Prime Minister in Morrison's theoretical absence, refused to tell journalists where he is generally, stated outright that he is not in Hawaii, and claimed that he was already on a flight home.

Somehow, Australians on holiday in Hawaii have managed to pose with the man who launched the "Where The Bloody Hell Are You?" international tourism campaign advertising Australia ten years ago, here attempting to throw a shaka, but actually making the "bong on" hand symbol.

https://i.imgur.com/VYhWJbs.jpg

When journalists have contacted the PMO to point out that they are lying to the citizenry of the country about the leader of the country, they have received text messages saying "sorry you were offended."

Heading for two days after his promise (on the very formal method of addressing the country, Facebook product Instagram,) to return as soon as could be arranged, it turns out that apparently Qantas and Jetstar and Fiji Airways and Hawaiian Airlines and Air New Zealand and the Australian military have all shut down worldwide operations, as he was photographed three hours ago in a Waikiki hotel:

https://i.imgur.com/YbIxGAP.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/HbiyYug.jpg

Also Waikiki has seceded from Hawaii? Google Maps hasn't updated yet.

Members of the government have argued that it actually doesn't matter if the leader of the country isn't in the country while the country is on fire, because firefighters are the ones who do the work and Scott deserves a rest. Morrison himself has stated that just getting updates from his staff in his mystery undisclosed location that definitely isn't Hawaii is fine, because "I don’t hold a hose, I don’t sit in a control room.”

Somehow, despite not piloting a marine vessel or being a concentration camp guard or paying people smugglers out of his own pocket or personally cutting refugees heads off with a machete, while Immigration Minister he awarded himself this trophy, which he still keeps on his desk as PM:

https://i.imgur.com/AmZzA3u.png

Denial is going to become politically untenable any SECOND now, I can just feel it.

five weeks so far that the state of New South Wales has been at "catastrophic fire danger"

nb: this level had to be added above 'extreme' in 2009.

Of course, the Rural Fire Service is not funded at a level where they have been able to replace the actual warning signs in the last decade. At least the danger level was only at "Very High" in this location, so it didn't matter:

https://i.imgur.com/l4oOtXa.jpg

how is this playing politically?

Members of the government have argued that it actually doesn't matter if the leader of the country isn't in the country while the country is on fire

The Acting Prime Minister told the protestors... well, told reporters elsewhere - that they are "wasting your time" and should "Go and donate your time to Meals on Wheels and something like that."

And the Foreign Minister said it was right to not cancel or cut short his secret holiday because "his family [...] have no choice in the matter as to when they are able to spend time with their husband and their father."

it actually doesn't matter if the leader of the country isn't in the country while the country is on fire

apparently true

It definitely would have done more good for the current situation if he had been out of the country for the last ten years, than this week.