Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

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scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:08 (nine years ago) link

just starting to read it now, but it's by bill mckibben, so it's going to be a good read. the man is truly a hero.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:15 (nine years ago) link

i would say its scary but its way beyond that. kind of an r.i.p. earth dispatch really.

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:19 (nine years ago) link

"In early June, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled on a Norwegian research trawler to see firsthand the growing damage from climate change. "Many of the predictions about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data," she said, describing the sight as "sobering." But the discussions she traveled to Scandinavia to have with other foreign ministers were mostly about how to make sure Western nations get their share of the estimated $9 trillion in oil (that's more than 90 billion barrels, or 37 gigatons of carbon) that will become accessible as the Arctic ice melts. Last month, the Obama administration indicated that it would give Shell permission to start drilling in sections of the Arctic."

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:21 (nine years ago) link

well that's good news, at least

frogbs, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:24 (nine years ago) link

we're fucked

Tartar Mouantcheoux (Noodle Vague), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:26 (nine years ago) link

all that pesky arctic ice was hiding all the oil!

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:28 (nine years ago) link

it's why if you talk to people who work on climate change (people at environmental nonprofits, climate scientists, think tanks), everyone has this attitude that's beyond fatalistic. like, you almost have to laugh at the situation a little bit to keep yourself from going insane. i guess the article talks about that a bit:

We're in the same position we've been in for a quarter-century: scientific warning followed by political inaction. Among scientists speaking off the record, disgusted candor is the rule. One senior scientist told me, "You know those new cigarette packs, where governments make them put a picture of someone with a hole in their throats? Gas pumps should have something like that."

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:33 (nine years ago) link

but yeah, it's absurd. in 2010, my dad told me "you know who Obama should appoint for secretary of energy? Sarah Palin. i don't agree with her about a lot of stuff, but she has really good ideas about energy." my dad's kind of an outlier i guess, because he's a super fundamentalist who believes the earth is 8000 years old and doesn't believe that climate change could happen because god promised not to flood the earth again, and even if environmental catastrophe did occur, he'd be raptured out of it (the "pre-wrath rapture" theory") before the shit hit the fan. but man, there are a toooooooon of really ignorant people out there that don't want to hear anything that's bad news.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:36 (nine years ago) link

it really is up to the governments of the world. all of them. the average person is too far gone to really change things. i'm too far gone! he mentions that moral outrage over the loss of a city due to climate-related storms would change opinion, although there has already been mass devastation to cities due to super storms and it hasn't changed anyone's mind about anything. plus, for some reason people don't want to make the connection. major damage due to warming doesn't make people hate the oil companies.

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:45 (nine years ago) link

this is increasingly all I think about and it leaves me in a heavy depression. I try to be fatalistic about it and tell myself that the universe will go on regardless, but that's not comfort since I guess one day it will be a dark grey cold mass of atoms.

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:45 (nine years ago) link

i find it near-impossible to imagine a government stepping in to take the necessary action against oil companies in liberal socialist Europe, there's absolutely no chance in hell it wd happen in the US or China

Tartar Mouantcheoux (Noodle Vague), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:47 (nine years ago) link

all the news stories here about the drought are about how you might be paying more at the pump in the future! that is the number one concern. oh and food prices are gonna go up. that takes second place.

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:47 (nine years ago) link

thats really the frustrating part; it really seems like as a planet we could buckle down and fix things, we just won't

frogbs, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:47 (nine years ago) link

whenever I hear the phrase "the price at the pump" it makes me insane. was looking at various political parties' platforms, and of course in the energy section for the democrats' paper there is little mention of climate change, and instead just talk about energy security, independence, and yes, the "price at the pump."

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:50 (nine years ago) link

It sounds like it may be coming to a head in the US soon if next year's corn harvest may be fucked.

I am curious what the thinking inside China is - I oddly expect more of them than the US, partly because I don't associate them with "Oh God won't let that happen".

Andrew Farrell, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:51 (nine years ago) link

I remember having my huge bout of paralyzed fear about the environment in early 1992 -- still always associate the Church's stellar Priest = Aura with that, probably why that album has lingered with me for so long. I don't see myself returning to that state anymore because it's almost like...well, I went through it, and my fears never went away. I just became inured, and so I'll just live my life as low impact as possible and...wait.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:53 (nine years ago) link

xpost but it's up to people to force their governments to act.

what i'm dreading even more than the world that we'll have to live in for the rest of our lives - where the new normal is weeks on end of 100+ degrees, droughts, Katrinas, oceanic foodchains ruined by acidification, climate refugees struggling to move to the remaining pockets of the world where agriculture isn't wrecked - is the geoengineering "solutions" that will inevitably arise. it's so obvious that that's where we're headed. and no doubt, geoengineering efforts will probably be pushed by exxon-mobil and the like.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:54 (nine years ago) link

what is the true percentage of people in the US that believe god is protecting us though? I feel that there are many who just don't want to admit the truth because it is terrifying, or are just susceptible to listening to whichever account of events is least traumatizing. I figure it's quite a minority who really believe that God Himself will prevent any ecological disaster, even if a majority of Americans identify as religious.

xxpost

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:54 (nine years ago) link

like most Americans are religious, but not thaaaaat religious, right? I mean most people just like to say they believe in god and attend church once in a while. right guys??

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:56 (nine years ago) link

now I think I'm fooling myself maybe

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 13:57 (nine years ago) link

i need a drink after reading this

Spectrum, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:57 (nine years ago) link

I get the impression that it works on a lower/earlier level, like as long as there's FUD about climate change, people can react to it as "one story is this, and one story is that, but God would not put us in the situation where Story 1 happens so it must be Story 2"

Andrew Farrell, Friday, 20 July 2012 13:59 (nine years ago) link

I am curious what the thinking inside China is - I oddly expect more of them than the US, partly because I don't associate them with "Oh God won't let that happen".

also because their leadership would actually have the ability to unilaterally "force" action on the issue. don't know if they'd actually do it, but at least it's possible.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:00 (nine years ago) link

there was a nyer stat about 26% (iirc) of americans defining themselves as evangelicals, recently (xxxp)

hey Z S, sorry to use you as a lazy wikipedia substitute, BUT, is it correct that the limited action that was taken by governments after the discovery of the hole in the o-zone layer was actually effective? that stat always seemed slightly reassuring to me, because i couldn't believe that anyone did a lot, but the idea that some modest action was effective seemed promising.

, Blogger (schlump), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:02 (nine years ago) link

these are some of the people in power in the united states. just so we are clear:

In 2009, for the first time, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce surpassed both the Republican and Democratic National Committees on political spending; the following year, more than 90 percent of the Chamber's cash went to GOP candidates, many of whom deny the existence of global warming. Not long ago, the Chamber even filed a brief with the EPA urging the agency not to regulate carbon – should the world's scientists turn out to be right and the planet heats up, the Chamber advised, "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological and technological adaptations." As radical goes, demanding that we change our physiology seems right up there.

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:02 (nine years ago) link

U.S. Chamber of Commerce is horrible for many reasons, not least of which is that they fool people into thinking they're an actual gov't agency!

lou reed scott walker monks niagra (chinavision!), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:05 (nine years ago) link

Not long ago, the Chamber even filed a brief with the EPA urging the agency not to regulate carbon – should the world's scientists turn out to be right and the planet heats up, the Chamber advised, "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological and technological adaptations." As radical goes, demanding that we change our physiology seems right up there.

as cynical as i am about the intelligence of our conservative political leaders, i think that many of them really do understand the implications of climate change. as time goes on and denying climate change becomes more and more absurd - think about the first warnings about cigarettes and cancer in the late 50s, the loooooooong conservative battle against those scientists who were trying to save lives, and then the gradual, quiet acceptance of the facts in the following decades - the rhetoric will quickly shift to geoengineering "solutions", since by then it will be too late to actually effectively mitigate climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. hell, it's probably already too late NOW, when you take into account tipping points/feedback loops. anyway, they'll be happy to move straight to geoengineering, because that's a pro-business attitude that doesn't involve changing your own lifestyle.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:08 (nine years ago) link

wait did ned just say that he made his peace with the destruction of the planet via an australian college rock band from the 80's?

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:22 (nine years ago) link

sounds about right

mississippi joan hart (crüt), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:23 (nine years ago) link

You gotta start somewhere.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:25 (nine years ago) link

hey Z S, sorry to use you as a lazy wikipedia substitute, BUT, is it correct that the limited action that was taken by governments after the discovery of the hole in the o-zone layer was actually effective? that stat always seemed slightly reassuring to me, because i couldn't believe that anyone did a lot, but the idea that some modest action was effective seemed promising.

yes, the actions taken were relatively effective! but the experience is - cue negative nancy alert - unfortunately not very applicable to the problem of climate change. ozone depletion is primarily caused by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Banning the use of CFCs in things like spray cans and refrigerators was relatively easy to accomplish, since there are chemical substitutes that could be used at a similar cost. and it was regulation that could be implemented quickly, from the top down, on industry.

climate change, on the other hand, is driven by the emission of greenhouse gases, primarily from burning coal and using oil. but the key is that the infrastructure required to deliver energy and car-centered transportation to the people is enormous. you can't change it overnight, and you can't do it in a way that consumers barely notice (like phasing out CFCs in spray cans). there are cleaner substitutes for coal and oil, of course, but the substitutes tend to be more expensive and will take a long time to replace to replace the existing infrastructure.

and also, there's just the sheer usefulness of fossil fuels. think about what a gallon of gasoline provides for you - it enables a weak, feeble human being to move a one ton automobile for 30 miles or so! imagine pushing that car! all from a gallon of fossilized ancient dead organisms! it's seriously amazing. and so incredibly cheap. $3 for access to superhuman powers. it's like playing videogames on god mode. people in underdeveloped countries understandably want access to oil and coal. again, all of this in contrast to CFCs, which could be eliminated without negatively impacting the prospects of a better life for anyone else.

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 14:26 (nine years ago) link

xpost -- Said album was more of a vehicle and a lens, in that it builds up to a pretty harrowing ending. I don't know whether it matched my mood or enabled it, but I find it pretty inextricable in reflecting back, and anytime I encounter stories or concerns like this it's part of the soundtrack in my head.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:27 (nine years ago) link

If global warming is real, then why is it cold in winter? Huh? Fuck you, science.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:29 (nine years ago) link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4MCRrsmzYU

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:29 (nine years ago) link

The first six months of 2012 were the hottest on record. Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, takes a look at record warm temperatures across the county and the world and their connections to global warming.

http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/jul/11/weather/

scott seward, Friday, 20 July 2012 14:47 (nine years ago) link

The 'Dark Knight' shootings are terrifying and ppl will rightly be appalled by them but somehow climate change lacks the immediacy that would rightly make it that much more terrifying.

sive gallus et mulier (Michael White), Friday, 20 July 2012 15:52 (nine years ago) link

it's because what's predicted to happen has never happened before in human memory and so people just ignore it.

flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Friday, 20 July 2012 15:58 (nine years ago) link

if you can scarcely conceptualize a threat then it's hard to motivate yourself to give up deeply ingrained habits and privileges to stop it.

flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Friday, 20 July 2012 15:59 (nine years ago) link

i do wonder what sort of world the rest of my life will be spent in. will my neighbors and myself experience widespread privation? or will life in america just become marginally more difficult, with our wealth and technology insulating ourselves from the worst of it? will my diet change thanks to rolling food shortages? will we all simply die of malnutrition in 40 years?

flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:01 (nine years ago) link

3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.

he sorta blows his math cred in the second sentence. that number is almost zero.

Thus Sang Freud, Friday, 20 July 2012 16:03 (nine years ago) link

odds are expressed as a fraction of 1 iirc

Tartar Mouantcheoux (Noodle Vague), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:08 (nine years ago) link

agree. the odds are small, not large. an editor should have picked that up.

Thus Sang Freud, Friday, 20 July 2012 16:11 (nine years ago) link

Dodgy formatting imo, should it be 3.7 x 10^99:1? Or 3.7 x 10:99? Or what?

mod night at the oasis (NickB), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:12 (nine years ago) link

more proof that this is all a hoax

your friend, (Z S), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:16 (nine years ago) link

Sorry, I've got my stupid head on and didn't read the sentence properly. Yes, it makes no sense as he has written it.

mod night at the oasis (NickB), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:26 (nine years ago) link

it makes sense it's just inaccurate. he shd've used odds against if he wanted to draw the stars comparison.

Tartar Mouantcheoux (Noodle Vague), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:27 (nine years ago) link

i mean, i knew what he meant, so it makes sense, and i squinted at the -99 index when i read it

Tartar Mouantcheoux (Noodle Vague), Friday, 20 July 2012 16:28 (nine years ago) link

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-energy-land-use-economy/

The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy

One thing we're definitely short on: land.

Joe Bombin (milo z), Friday, 30 April 2021 22:44 (one year ago) link

here the liberals go again, all this uncarbonous power and how are they going to land for it?!

Bobo Honk, real name, no gimmicks (Doctor Casino), Friday, 30 April 2021 23:44 (one year ago) link

The one thing which must never ever be mentioned in connection to reducing the greenhouse gas output of the USA economy, even in a whisper, are the concepts of wasting less energy, using less energy, consuming less of anything, making any noticeable sacrifices of any kind, or changing one's habits in any way. The very mention of any of these concepts is taboo among climate change activists, even among themselves, lest word leak out to the general public that addressing climate change might require any one of these eventualities.

Shhh. Don't tell anyone I said so.

sharpening the contraindications (Aimless), Saturday, 1 May 2021 03:47 (one year ago) link

wait, where's that from?

Bobo Honk, real name, no gimmicks (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 1 May 2021 12:00 (one year ago) link

two weeks pass...
two months pass...

AR6 is on the way

Monday’s findings are undoubtedly grim, acknowledged lead author Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

But people should not dwell in regret for the failures of the past, Tebaldi said, or only despair over possibilities that are not yet inescapable. Instead, she urged people to focus on what can still be done, on what can still be salvaged.

After all, the hard math of science shows that a concerted push by governments and the private sector can still bend the world’s troubling trajectory. Each action to slow the pace of emissions gives society more time to adapt to changes we know are coming. Each degree of warming that humans avoid saves us from climate catastrophes that don’t have to happen.

“Things are going to change for the worse. But they can change less for the worse than they would have, if we are able to limit our footprint now,” Tebaldi said.

“Every little bit counts.”

https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

sigh

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 09:04 (nine months ago) link

that was the most optimistic quote i could find

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 09:04 (nine months ago) link

governments and the private sector, the cause of and solution to all of our problems

i wish one of these scientists would just come out and say we need to fucking end capitalism now or at least give some good sabotage tips because they must fucking know this isn’t fucking working

Left, Monday, 9 August 2021 10:21 (nine months ago) link

since hearing Olufemi Taiwo use the phrase climate genocide to describe the current status quo and the trajectory we seem to be on I haven’t been able to get it out of my head. it seems to be the closest thing to consensus we have in the North about what needs to be done and that is fucking terrifying. there are way too few climate scientists and activists speaking out against the border or even making the connection

Left, Monday, 9 August 2021 10:33 (nine months ago) link

For those who may just be waking up to these facts, the good news is that we’re not starting from scratch. We can build on generations of movement knowledge and practice. Here, for example, is The People’s Agreement of Cochabamba’s plan for undoing global climate injustices: pic.twitter.com/Zdvg9LXidn

— Kai Heron (@KaiHeron) August 9, 2021

xyzzzz__, Monday, 9 August 2021 13:35 (nine months ago) link

The IPCC report doesn't say it can't be stopped. It says some changes can't be stopped but a fuck tonne of others can.

This is what climate denialism looks like now.https://t.co/ZopeyTsZID

— libcom.org (@libcomorg) August 9, 2021

xyzzzz__, Monday, 9 August 2021 22:25 (nine months ago) link

the first part is right.

this is not what climate denialism looks like now

also fuck the new york times

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 22:27 (nine months ago) link

I think it's good to widen the definition of climate denialism beyond cranks.

To say this is locked in now is assuring nothing will be done.

xyzzzz__, Monday, 9 August 2021 22:32 (nine months ago) link

not picking on you, just an honest q/thought: what good does it do to determine who is the "denialist"? i say this as someone who has used the term "climate denier/denialist" on this thread a million times. but broaden it, narrow it - what good does it do? what good has it done?

don't mistake me for someone who is like "oh please we have to be polite we have to be nice to each other so that we can convince the dumbasses of the world to change their ways" - that was me earlier on this thread, maybe me in the future. but right now - who the fuck cares? they do not care. the deniers. they take that shit as a badge of honor

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 23:20 (nine months ago) link

But the ppl who read and nod at the NY times might care, and I think that's the point for me. Climate denialism shouldn't just be a sole terrain of the cranks. Denialism is misinformation, it is to say that all is lost, like that headline.

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 08:41 (nine months ago) link

Disgraceful and dangerous headline - the vast majority of humanity had no say in any of this https://t.co/RYDqvhgRHm

— Rory Scothorne (@shirkerism) August 9, 2021

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 11:08 (nine months ago) link

what a waste of time

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 11:28 (nine months ago) link

caring about that

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 11:28 (nine months ago) link

If you don't care why are you wasting time posting about it?

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 11:30 (nine months ago) link

it was 6 am and I was briefly waking up to move myself to bed

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 16:31 (nine months ago) link

Posted while I walked

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 16:31 (nine months ago) link

Posting this while I shit

Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 16:31 (nine months ago) link

thinking about subscribing to this...can someone explain to me how it's just a scam that will actually make the problem worse

https://climeworks.com/

frogbs, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 18:42 (nine months ago) link

Posting this while I shit

― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 bookmarkflaglink

Was it a 12 hour shit?

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 19:25 (nine months ago) link

Posting this while I shit


sums up social media

beard papa, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 00:16 (nine months ago) link

four months pass...

Pour yourself a big cup of Sanka for this one

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/13/climate/antarctic-climate-change.html

Legalize Suburban Benches (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 19 December 2021 13:43 (five months ago) link

one month passes...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/01/will-local-politics-cook-the-planet.html

agggggggggggggggh

Karl Malone, Friday, 28 January 2022 04:24 (three months ago) link

three weeks pass...

Hmm, goverments still not seem to care

| (Latham Green), Sunday, 20 February 2022 01:03 (three months ago) link

Pish. I grant you the caring is scattered, localized, intermittent, and wholly inadequate to the meet the need, but it exists... sporadically, if you hunt for it.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Sunday, 20 February 2022 01:49 (three months ago) link

“It’s getting to the point where in somebody’s lifetime now, they will notice the difference,”


https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/story/2022-02-18/beach-erosion-sea-rise-san-diego

Elvis Telecom, Sunday, 20 February 2022 02:05 (three months ago) link

"fuck earth" government

| (Latham Green), Monday, 21 February 2022 22:29 (three months ago) link

Satellite images show the Amazon rainforest is hurtling toward a ‘tipping point’

Viewed from space, the Amazon rainforest doesn’t look like an ecosystem on the brink. Clouds still coalesce from the breath of some 390 billion trees. Rivers snake their way through what appears to be a sea of endless green.

Yet satellite images taken over the past several decades reveal that more than 75 percent of the rainforest is losing resilience, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. The vegetation is drier and takes longer to regenerate after a disturbance. Even the most densely forested tracts struggle to bounce back.

This widespread weakness offers an early warning sign that the Amazon is nearing its “tipping point,” the study’s authors say. Amid rising temperatures and other human pressures, the ecosystem could suffer sudden and irreversible dieback. More than half of the rainforest could be converted into savanna in a matter of decades — a transition that would imperil biodiversity, shift regional weather patterns and dramatically accelerate climate change.

Historically, the Amazon has been one of Earth’s most important “carbon sinks,” pulling billions of tons of carbon dioxide from the air and storing it in vegetation. Researchers fear that this carbon’s sudden release would put humanity’s most ambitious climate goal — limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — out of reach.

“As a scientist, I am not supposed to have anxiety. But after reading this paper, I am very, very anxious,” said Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist at the University of São Paulo’s Institute of Advanced Studies, who was not involved in the new research. “This paper shows we are moving in the completely wrong direction … If we exceed the tipping point, that’s very bad news.”

you know how the rest goes

the world's undisputed #1 fan of 'Spud Infinity' (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 March 2022 16:11 (two months ago) link

This paper shows we are moving in the completely wrong direction

Put it in the pile with the ten thousand other studies that show the same thing. Until a climate scientist sets herself on fire on the DC Mall in protest the media won't even blink.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, 7 March 2022 19:04 (two months ago) link

https://hackaday.com/2022/01/25/would-nuclear-winter-cancel-out-global-warming/

If nuclear winter is indeed possible, as per the modelling shown in several research papers, then in a way, nuclear winter could indeed counteract global warming. In the most shocking results of a full-scale conflict between superpowers, modelling run in 2007 suggests average global temperatures could fall by as much as 8 °C, levelling out to 4 °C after a decade or so. Global warming, on the other hand, is expected to reach a level of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial averages within the next decade or so.

Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 8 March 2022 02:49 (two months ago) link

^ This is right up there with eugenics and genocide on the list of all time great ideas.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Tuesday, 8 March 2022 04:35 (two months ago) link

when God closes a door...

frogbs, Tuesday, 8 March 2022 04:53 (two months ago) link

wut

BREAKING: One of the crazier extreme weather events we've reported on. Temperatures in eastern Antarctica are 50 to 90 degrees above normal. https://t.co/jksBNnNOpM

— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) March 18, 2022

mookieproof, Saturday, 19 March 2022 13:59 (two months ago) link

Japan’s cherry blossom ‘earliest peak since 812

The cherry blossom season, Japan’s traditional sign of spring, has peaked at the earliest date since records began 1,200 years ago.

The 2021 season in the city of Kyoto peaked on 26 March, according to data collected by Osaka University.

Increasingly early flowerings in recent decades are likely to be a result of climate change, scientists said.

The records from Kyoto go back to 812 AD in imperial court documents and diaries.

The city has experienced an unusually warm spring this year.

The previous record there was set in 1409, when the season reached its peak on 27 March.

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 14:51 (one month ago) link

Julian 27 March 1409 = Gregorian 05 April 1409

Gregorian 27 March 1409 = Julian 18 March 1409

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

conrad, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 14:56 (one month ago) link

i'd hope that at least one of the researchers took that into account. but then again...

https://i.imgur.com/CEh1yKl.png

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:01 (one month ago) link

i'm just hoping this issue doesn't affect jesus christ's birthday, which happened on dec 25th

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:02 (one month ago) link

Sand trombone at Julian Gregorian discrepancy, the kind of thing I usually like to think about to distract me from this other stuff.

The Central Rockaliser (James Redd and the Blecchs), Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:04 (one month ago) link

for real, though, the dataset goes back to the year 812, every year, so i'm pretty sure they would notice if the dates suddenly jumped a couple weeks when the calendar systems shifted.

but then again - i do not have access to this top secret data. but i would like to

https://i.imgur.com/BBO6LMj.jpg

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:10 (one month ago) link

that does leave the possibility open that the previous record for earlier blossom peaking was in fact, on christ's date of birth. and not only the wise men in judaea but also some wise men in japan took note, and said "wow, something really important is happening today"

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 30 March 2022 15:12 (one month ago) link

Japan never used the Julian calendar. It was totally closed to westerners until the mid-nineteenth century, when the Gregorian was already in general use.

more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, 30 March 2022 16:28 (one month ago) link

one month passes...

hmm

"If I buy an SUV will it be vandalised by climate protesters?"

Yes. Yes it will.

The @Telegraph tells its readers not to buy SUVs in case we target them.

Our campaign is working. We will make it impossible to own an SUV in the world's urban areas. But only if you join in! pic.twitter.com/IfYnJ2I1rB

— The Tyre Extinguishers (@T_Extinguishers) April 4, 2022

Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Friday, 6 May 2022 04:56 (two weeks ago) link

Was recently thinking about when there was a campaign of smashing windows of SUVs in San Francisco’s Mission District, and how SUVs seem to be widely seen as status symbols by Latino immigrants, and how the Mission District is a rapidly gentrifying area which was historically mostly populated by Latino immigrants.

recovering internet addict/shitposter (viborg), Saturday, 7 May 2022 13:59 (two weeks ago) link

Abstract from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Elvis Telecom, Sunday, 8 May 2022 04:49 (two weeks ago) link

Just catching up on this thread, but Aimless, your lathe of heaven needs a tuneup

Put it in the pile with the ten thousand other studies that show the same thing. Until a climate scientist sets herself on fire on the DC Mall in protest the media won't even blink.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, March 7, 2022 1:04 PM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

Chyiv Kyiv (Fetchboy), Monday, 9 May 2022 23:17 (one week ago) link


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