A question about climate change/global warming.

OneOrdinaryCitizen at 7:15 AM July 23, 2012
Just one little problem with this article. How can falling fertitlity rates lead to a population explosion? In fact, world population growth rates have been falling since 1970. The current population growth rate of 1% per year is down from over 2% per year in the early 70s. While an additional 1% or 70,000,000 people per year is enourmous and presents many challenges, Nature has a way of dealing with populations that exceed the capacity of their environment.

once again, the inability for some people to understand subjects that require even a little bit of math/science education is such a limiting factor. the article explained, at length, with various analogies, why population could continue to rapidly grow even as overall fertility rates decline.

Well isn't this news just dandy?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-thaw-nasa

also:

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/07/earth-from-space-whats-floating-down-the-fjord-today-dear/260296/

been so depressed since reading that McKibben piece

― the alternate vision continues his vision quest! (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, July 23, 2012 11:57 AM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i know what will cheer you up! you can watch this important discussion on environmentalism that the good folks at the American Enterprise Institute are hosting tomorrow!

Humanity once looked in the mirror and saw something precious, worth protecting and fighting for -- indeed, worth liberating. But now we are beset on all sides by propaganda promoting a radically different viewpoint: that humans are endangering the earth’s natural order.

“Merchants of Despair,” by leading thinker Robert Zubrin, traces the pedigree of antihumanist ideology and exposes its deadly consequences in startling detail. The book names the chief prophets and promoters of antihumanism over the last two centuries and exposes the worst crimes perpetrated by the movement, including eugenics campaigns in the U.S. and genocidal antidevelopment and population-control programs around the world.

Please join us for a lunch discussion of this important new book.

http://www.aei.org/events/2012/07/26/merchants-of-despair-radical-environmentalists-criminal-pseudo-scientists-and-the-fatal-cult-of-antihumanism/

there was a Sunday NYT opinion piece this week about how ppl simply can't imagine a drastically different world. until it arrives.

title was something like "we are all climate idiots"

Man, that's some spin. "Antihumanism" -- who could possibly find fault with THAT?

Zubrin's change in course from pro-Mars/Space Exploration guru to anti-climate change zealot is even more depressing to me! I have always been a huge proponent of getting into outer space.

if anything, climate change scenarios make me want to get off this stupid planet even more

http://haysvillelibrary.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/how-to-live-on-mars.jpg

Mars wouldn't be so bad if we could get wifi there

also a NYT op today about interstellar travel not happening for centuries yet.

interplanetary travel's gonna happen a lot sooner. interstellar is a whole different ballgame.

can't remotely imagine us surviving to do interstellar.

not in our present form

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/a-climate-and-energy-stalemate/

The public is divided, with fervent minorities at either end of the debate and a broad crowd in the middle that believes that human activity is altering the climate but remains conflicted over what government, corporations and individuals should do about it. Attuned to the public’s ambivalence, both political parties and their presidential candidates are playing down the climate issue. Instead, what passes for an energy debate in the United States is rivalry over which party is more devoted to extracting oil and gas from the ground and the seabed.

Over the new few months, we hope to jump-start a discussion about energy and climate policy in the United States. We’ll have experts weigh in and welcome readers’ opinions on broad questions that may be neglected on the campaign trail.

Is climate change a real and present danger? Why does the United States lag behind many other industrialized nations in addressing it? Do Americans need to reduce their energy consumption? Should there be limits to where and when and how they drill for oil, frack for gas and mine coal? How far should regulators go in trying to reduce air pollution and emissions of greenhouse gases? Should the federal government subsidize alternative sources of energy like the sun, wind and biofuels?

FUUUUUCK YOOOOOOU JOHN BROOOOOOOODER

seriously, head-thumping-repeatedly-on-wall.gif, fuck you john broder

would stab

i can't WAIT to see the "experts" that he invites to "weigh in" on this important "debate", making sure to invite plenty of people from the American Enterprise Institute and Competitive Enterprise Institute to provide balance. although who knows, maybe broder will make me shit my pants and bring in 98 climate scientists who were convinced that climate change is a real and present danger decades ago, vs 2 deniers who can't get their stuff published in peer reviewed journals and also happen to take tons of funding from big oil. that would be a accurate portrayal of the debate

i'm going to my happy place now

i'm floating in an ocean with sunglasses on, god exists, i have no job and don't need a job, elizabeth kolbert is the lead science writer for the new york times...

An electoral motive to redefine climate-change policy? naaahhhhhhh

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/24/six_weeks_to_save_the_planet/

u read salon too much, Doc. But I guess we all do.

6 percent of undecided voters (w/ a margin of error of...11) believe that climate change is the single most important issue for their vote

that 55% believe it is "one of several issues" (as opposed to 69% of democrats) says basically nothing. if elections could be won on this issue in 2012 we wouldn't need some poorly constructed poll to inform us.

The big news on climate change this year was the Arctic ice extent, and Americans had to turn on their ACs and pay more for meat, but buried as a page 16 story was the biggest human impact story of 2012 climate change, which was the failure of the Indian monsoon. When one considers how quickly Indian farmers are depleting their aquifers, things are likely to get pretty ugly there pretty soon.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/pix/user_images/kd/highlights/glob_precipch_whbk_1920x1080.png

Scotland is going to get more rain?!

HEXIGTEN, China (AP) — Deep in the hilly grasslands of remote Inner Mongolia, twin smoke stacks rise more than 200 feet into the sky, their steam and sulfur billowing over herds of sheep and cattle. Both day and night, the rumble of this power plant echoes across the ancient steppe, and its acrid stench travels dozens of miles away.

This is the first of more than 60 coal-to-gas plants China wants to build, mostly in remote parts of the country where ethnic minorities have farmed and herded for centuries. Fired up in December, the multibillion-dollar plant bombards millions of tons of coal with water and heat to produce methane, which is piped to Beijing to generate electricity.

It's part of a controversial energy revolution China hopes will help it churn out desperately needed natural gas and electricity while cleaning up the toxic skies above the country's eastern cities. However, the plants will also release vast amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, even as the world struggles to curb greenhouse gas emissions and stave off global warming.. .

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/coal-gas-boom-china-holds-climate-change-risks

i suppose china's position is that there won't be a global price on carbon anytime soon, and/or that they won't cooperate with such a scheme even if it did exist.

Over their lifetimes, current Chinese coal gassification projects will emit three times the carbon as a fully developed Canadian oil sands.

These schemes are also intended to help out the Chinese coal industry, with 70% of firms now operating at a loss.

Are you there, God? It’s me, climate scientist.

I'm taking a side discussion from the latest US politics thread here, damn the torpedos.

On climate change I'm afraid that them moving past outright denial isn't necessarily any kind of progress on the issue. It's getting to where outright denial is becoming politically untenable and I'm convinced that they long ago mapped out their future strategy of morphing from 'it isn't happening' to 'it's too late to do anything about it/it doesn't matter what we do cause China and India'.

― viborg, Tuesday, December 10, 2019 6:53 AM

Office buildings are being evacuated in Sydney because the fire alarms won't stop going off. the Prime Minister says it's "not the time" to discuss whether climate change is involved, is approving more coal mines, refuses to meet with firefighters or allot emergency services any emergency funding, but is pushing one piece of legislation today: to make it legal again to refuse employment or services to gay and trans people

― insecurity bear (sic), Tuesday, December 10, 2019 9:12 AM

Australian politics is a bit baffling to me because at first glance it seems significantly better than the USA but then you look more closely and it seems a lot less pleasant. I will maintain that this reflects the campaign of disinformation I argue for particularly in light of friggin Rupert Murdoch's influence in both countries. Also there was some serious progress with carbon pricing under Julia Gillard's leadership afaik but I'm no expert there.

Of course meanwhile in Brazil you have Jair Bolsanaro basically arresting firefighters accused of starting the massive fires there this past summer (and he's also accused Leonardo DiCaprio of arson).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-environment-wildfires/brazil-frees-volunteer-firefighters-accused-of-setting-amazon-blazes-idUKKBN1Y22AX

So yes denial is still strong, fair point. And I'm not trying to claim there's some center of climate change disinformation plotting all of the lies and bullshit being spread on the issue, a lot of my perspective is just from reading somewhat informed discussions online with a range of views that sometimes includes FUD (basically, Reddit etc). But it wouldn't be hard to present a case for some consistent unified strategy for denial and disinformation being deployed throughout the media landscape, with funding largely originating from a few central culprits.

(Hope this isn't totally redundant, I'll read the whole thread but just recovering from wallowing thru a few other massive threads. The one about the end of the golden age of the internet -- so many thoughts!)

Global Warming's Terrifying New Math gets more action, most of it is good excepting my recent contributions.

And I'm not trying to claim there's some center of climate change disinformation plotting all of the lies and bullshit being spread on the issue

there are two centers: the koch brothers and the oil and gas industry supply the motives and the money, and bullshit front organizations like the heartland institute provide the public face

It is a mistake to believe that the climate disinformation campaign was NOT a deliberate choice made by powerful people who saw the prospect of government action to regulate fossil fuels as a direct threat to diminish their wealth and power and acted to protect it through sowing doubt, fear and anger among the public. It was exactly that and nothing else.

The real mind-fuck is that the fossil fuel regulation they fought so hard in the 1990s would not have *destroyed* their wealth and power, but would only have temporarily diminished it, allowing them to transition their capital holdings over time to a new and sounder footing, where no doubt they would have maintained their all-mighty position at the top of the heap anyway. The criminality of it is simply stunning.

Aimless otm

Also there was some serious progress with carbon pricing under Julia Gillard's leadership afaik but I'm no expert there.

yeah, this is the case, emissions dropped significantly. but much like the US has aimed to revoke every humane advance of the first black president, Gillard was the first female prime minister, sooooo we have increased emissions to above the previous levels in the years since she was deposed.

All otm. The US Chamber of Commerce is another org with a horrible record on the issue. It would be interesting to see some kind of chart of what lies are being pushed most strongly at the moment based on Twitter bots etc. In terms of just stats I also wonder about the significance of the energy industry for the economies of Australia vs the USA. It's tiny in the UK in comparison I guess.

It is a mind fuck and to me it seems incredibly shortsighted as well, I try to understand their motives a little bit but the worldview of an energy industry executive to me seems almost as foreign as Genghis Khan.

sic, really interesting point -- I see much of current US politics as a backlash against the first black president and was wondering if there was a major backlash against carbon pricing in Aus as well but maybe the gender factor is even more major.

don't even get me started on the chamber of commerce, neither national nor local. it's the most cynical anti-everything that could negatively affect the expansion of the collective business bottom line that could exist, and nationally was started as a bullshit balance against the labor movement

more insidiously, local groups sponsor "young professional" groups that are ostensibly social mixer situations where you can also do business networking. after the diminishing of local groups that were more civic-minded, the chamber-sponsored one got much larger. later, some people were shocked when the most shitheaded conservative politicians were invited to speak to the chamber -- their parent organization! -- despite that being the status quo all along

Shitheels all of them.

I missed the link to the Global Warming's Terrifying New Math thread there, I thought that was more for specifically science and data-focused talk. (Also it's a shame it doesn't have 'climate change' in the title, I tried searching for it but forgot the exact wording at first.)

It's about 5 years overdue for a "Herein we commiserate about our mutual assured destruction in the climate crisis" thread, but aside from the Grimes thread at ILM, my threads disappear into the memory hole...

was wondering if there was a major backlash against carbon pricing in Aus as well but maybe the gender factor is even more major.

Bigger factors are Murdoch's domination of all media being finally entrenched by Facebook (the last two remaining broadsheets in the country sold themselves to a commercial TV company last year), and the LNP's twin-factor reactionary reinforcement, but the sexism throughout Gillard's tenure (a productive legislative one) was monstrous, and openly led by Abbott, the next man elected PM after her: he campaigned in front of signs reading "JuLIAR" and "burn the witch."

Office buildings are being evacuated in Sydney because the fire alarms won't stop going off. the Prime Minister says it's "not the time" to discuss whether climate change is involved

Air levels in Sydney are still eleven x above "hazardous", smoke is filling indoor shopping centres, and employers are withholding pay from workers who are declining to work outdoors.

twin-factor reactionary reinforcement

ie that leads them to run back to the petty kickbacks of the coal lobby - note that our current elected PM publicly worked as a coal lobbyist while in Parliament as a minister - as well as overturn actual progressive advances when given the chance.

https://1v1d1e1lmiki1lgcvx32p49h8fe-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/scott-morrison-coal-joyce-aap-960x540.jpg

poxy fule?

dunno why I'm getting poxyed, so piece by piece

^ this good Christian refuses to fund firefighters, so they are literally begging on gofundme for oxygen instead of working in dust masks

meanwhile he did fly to smoke-ridden Sydney on Sunday, but to attend a purpose-unknown private event at a riverside polo club (currently on sale for $75 million, if you're looking), not to address any fire-related issues

https://www.christiesrealestate.com/sales/detail/170-l-86-f1906121203700007/sydneys-premier-polo-club-in-an-idyllic-setting-by-the-hawkesbury-river-sw-2753

and today has fronted a presser to assert that he "completely rejects" Australia's last-place ranking on the global index of climate policy, because the ranking is "not credible."

Denial is working juuuuuuust fine.

(Christies link didn't wanna embed)

Firefighters are being told to shut down the crowdfunding. ffs.

Update: the firefighters have been advised to stop crowdfunding for money to buy facemasks that will stop them from being taken to hospital for smoke inhalation.

As with climate change's contributions to these months-long fires, it turns out that 'during the fires' is not the time to discuss whether or not they will literally die while volunteering to save lives and homes and ecosystems and species. This should be considered at some future time, after a months-long scientific research and evaluation process. The dust masks they currently have will obviously keep working if they just believe hard enough. Perhaps if they collapse after fighting fires without breathing protection or pay for 12 hours, it's because they haven't donated enough to the PM's multinational grifter megachurch? Get a research and evaluation process onto that, too.


(Note that the linked story reports Morrison has today announced $11 million in additional firefighting funding. This appears - he won't clarify - to actually be $11 million that he has announced twice, has been held up without reason for two years so far, and if it turns out to be real this time, won't be approved until sometime after February. To be fair, he probably expects the fires to still be going in February.)

(hollow) lol xpost

some comparisons:

one concentration camp contractor is on a $1.9 billion five-year contract

a contractor that transports concentration camp prisoners has won 115 tenders to date, from $160k to $78 million (https://www.tenders.gov.au/Search/KeywordSearch?keyword=skytraders)

Morrison initiated a $158 million program to put priests into schools
(reminder: his own pastor, whom he tried to bring to the White House, obstructed police investigations into the multinational child abuse committed by the pastor’s father / founder of the church)

he spent $185 million on reopening a single concentration camp, and millions per month keeping it open, with a single family detained there

he commissioned a statue of Captain Cook in his own electorate for $60 million

in six years of government (and three elected & two unelected prime ministers) his mob have given $7.7 billion in subsidies to fossil fuel companies.

https://data.junkee.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/sydneysmoke.jpg

the rural fire service office in Sydney's west was evacuated because their smoke alarms went off