Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

post this on the politics thread just now -- krugman crediting the GOP's 'innovation'

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/21/new-developments-in-the-political-business-cycle/

It’s hard to see the GOP letter threatening Ben Bernanke if he does anything to help the economy as anything but an attempt to invert the political business cycle, pressuring the central bank to ensure a weak economy in the year before the election.

say it ain't so!

So the CR spending bill just failed unexpectedly in the house; the government funding expires Sep 30. I have no idea what this means beyond a vague memory of the "Shutdown" WW episode.

whoops.

lol America?

This situation is what whips (second in command to the speaker) are for. If Boehner can't or won't whip his members into line, then you may as well hang tinsel from his ears and use him as a Christmas tree.

philanthropy stories always make me feel better (just a little bit)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/09/21/george-kaisers-10-billion-bet/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

this is going viral i think

it was suggested that it was a hoax?

where?

in the comments at least. i guess there's a rumor that he's a yes man but i don't think so.

guardian looking into it.

yeah the yes men are denying involvement and saying this guy is just "a trader being more honest than usual"

it doesn't even seem particularly controversial? if it is a fake, they shoulda gone beyond, well, "a trader being more honest than usual"

yeah i mean the outrage is kind of surprising me? like, i thought we already assumed this was how these slimeballs think

Yeah. There is nothing he says that is contrary to reality, as experienced by a trader. He exagerates when he says Goldman Sachs runs the world, but to a trader that perception is spot on. He could be wrong about the depth of the next crash, but he has probably placed most or all of his bets on that outcome and therefore believes in its truth and has expressed his faith in the most sincere way a trader may do so.

he was re-interviewed by another bbc outlet last night, and was if anything even more irritating/assholish. same basic points made tho.

it's definitely a "let them eat cake" moment

"you have savings in the bank you are worried about losing? you should be shorting stocks!"

This is where it comes in handy that goverments have reserved the use of force to their own province and people like this have no police or armies in place to back them up, unless a government loans them theirs. atm, the wall streeters feel smugly secure in their access to the US goverment's police powers for their protection. If they are not more careful, that reality could flip in a matter of weeks or months.

“Alessio Rastani, 33, is a London stock market trader of Italo-Iranian origin. He regularly visits his relatives in Tehran.”

http://observers.france24.com/content/20101006-iran-youth-flirting-tehran-cars-traffic-jam-boys-girls-iran-zamin

in the other interview he does a 2 minute rant on american consumerism, ignorance, and laziness. if anyone wanted to they could turn off the tv, spend a few weeks in the library, become a trader and protect their assets. kaufmann esque.

it's so easy, why doesn't everybody do it?

"poverty is voluntary"

im tryna find the audio, but i don't think it's posted. it was on bbc world overnight, the presenter was male. i was not aware of the earlier video interview, and dude blew my mind, by the end i was "lol, u trollin."

oh hey

http://www.leadingtrader.com/09/alessio-rastani-a-big-thank-you-from-alessio/

"I have had almost every major news television and radio station in the world wanting to interview me, plus offers for making films and documentaries. "

Just over the course of a couple of days? Quick, let's make a movie about this guy!!!!!!

What hath God wrought?

http://i.imgur.com/SYv4N.jpg

http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s320x320/308598_2495395062907_1193746996_3031031_811265539_n.jpg

can someone link me to something that debunks this stupid 47% of americans don't pay income taxes thing?

47% of americans don't pay income taxes because they are poor and because of republicans cutting taxes

they pay payroll taxes, sales taxes, all kinds of user fees that often end up being a bigger % of their income than the amount paid by some hedge fund dude

rite

http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/republicans-resurrect-welfare-charge-for-tax-day

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html

Notwithstanding repeated attempts at monetary and fiscal stimulus since 2009, the United States remains mired in what is by far its worst economic slump since that of the 1930s. More than 25 million working-age Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, the employment-to-population ratio lingers at an historic low of 58.3 percent, business investment continues at historically weak levels, and consumption expenditure remains weighed down by massive private sector debt overhang left by the bursting of the housing and credit bubble a bit over three years ago. Recovery from what already has been dubbed the “Great Recession” has been so weak thus far that real GDP has yet to surpass its previous peak. And yet, already there are signs of renewed recession.

It is not only the U.S. economy that is in peril right now. At this writing, Europe is struggling to prevent the sovereign debt problems of its peripheral Euro-zone economies from spiraling into a full-fledged banking crisis – an ominous development that would present an already weakening economy with yet another demand shock. Meanwhile, China and other large emerging economies--those best positioned to take up worsening slack in the global economy--are beginning to experience slowdowns of their own as earlier measures to contain domestic inflation and credit-creation kick in, and as weak growth in Europe and the United States dampen demand for their exports.

Nor is renewed recession the only threat we now face.

http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/NAF_The_Way_Forward_Alpert_Hockett_Roubini.pdf

nouriel roubini and bros otm

I lol'd:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/this-sure-is-a-spooky-time-for-the-economy,26442/

there isn't a rolling EU-economy thread is there?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/world/europe/german-vote-backs-bailout-fund-as-rifts-remain-in-talks.html?hp

there's this -

rolling european politics thread 2011

though frankly it's too tempting to revive this one -

European Economic Union: where's it at?

It... continues.

J Corzine takes over brokerage company, thinks "this gig small, could be big investment bank", takes risky positions, ???, not exactly profit.

Oh, and clients' money, required by law to be kept in accounts separate from those used for the company's own liabilities, may not have been so kept...

oh corzinepaws

Oil is spiking again to well over $100/bbl, even though there is no fundamental reason for it, like increased demand. Instead, my guess is that investors are spooked by the euro crisis, and all the money that is running away from eurozone bonds is getting parked in oil, causing a mini-bubble. This is just going to hasten the next recession. Eerie echoes of the summer of 2008 going on, imo. (shudders)

One thing I've been wondering for a while -- it seems like with ordinary oil futures contracts there's a limit to specultation since eventually someone has to take delivery. So have wall street geniuses developed exotic products that somehow avoid this problem or at least postpone it? I really know nothing about futures trading so no idea.

I think actual delivery of oil ("physical settlement") is rare in the oil futures market and that usually these contracts are "cash settled" - ie., the net value is paid in cash on expiry. Alternatively, the holder of the futures contract can always take an offsetting position before expiry to net their exposure to zero.

I guess I'm just wondering if the particularities of the commodities market make an "oil bubble" operate differently than bubbles in stock, real estate, etc. It kind of appears like they do, since we seem to get these relatively short oil bubbles and busts rather than one long runup.

And I guess the date/settlement aspect would affect that regardless of whether it involves "physical" delivery or not, since it just puts a time limit on holding without upping your investment in a sense, yes?

Well, it is different, I think, from stocks and other intangible assets. After all, at the end of the day, oil is a dark, smelly liquid that needs to be physically stored somewhere, like in a large tank, so that does seem to impose some limits on how far speculation can drive things, unless people are physically stockpiling large amounts of oil and/or producers are withholding output to wait for higher prices. Not sure exactly how much that dampens speculation - maybe it limits it to more short-term movements like you said.

Yeah and I also think there is some kind of tracking of oil stockpiles, how much is being left on tankers, etc., although I'm sure there are flaws in that system.

good news everyone
http://networkedblogs.com/snqxF

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html