Irish politics discussion thread

I didn't know there was one. Yay me!

most of my peer group are about the same. but we live in ireland, so that's probably not very acceptable.

I am irritated beyond belief by the fact that my stupid housemates completely failed to get themselves on the electoral register and therefore did not vote. Useless eejits. And they're exactly the kind of people who whinge all the time about how shit the government is.

It looks like the usual suspects back in again. The only bright spot in the day could be the ousting of Michael McDowell. Please please please!

yep....am praying McDowell gets booted out after all his "don't vote in a flaky left wing government" crap.

Joe Higgins look like he could be in trouble.

this election sucks on a number of levels, not least that I am going to lose our work election prediction competition big time.

higgins gone, i thought. on a local note, gerry cowley bit the dust a long time ago, to nobody's surprise.

i'm kinda glad to see the viable parties win out over the wacko extreme parties though. particularly the PD's and the greens.

Bland centrism for all. Next time around people can moan about how all the politicians are the same.

I am gutted and off to get drunk. Well I was going to do the latter anyway but still, I'm in Dublin South East and so far so good. According to the Irish Times at the moment Gormley is 200 votes ahead (so my vote worked!) which leads me to hope that McDowell will be removed. You never know though, until they've sorted through all the (really confusing!) transfers, nothing is certain sadly.

Had to work all day opposite a FFer who thinks McDowell is the best thing for Irish politics! It's been a long day to put it mildly :(

ROFL @ Ruari Quinn: "I've just come from the pictures and a bite to eat so I'm only now catching up with the figures. I was at Pirates of the Carribean in which a set of gangsters also won an election" I love him. Also said "Howya" to him on the canal yesterday (he only got my number 2).

Having first glass of wine. I promise first drunken rants will be on this thread if they happen. You're all so lucky.

Holy shit. Joe O'Higgins is gone! That is a level 10 on the scale of WTF!

YES! FU MMD!!

haha so good! they chanted "cheerio cheerio cheerio" at him as he was making his pompous resignation speech.

arrogant prick...

Totally! J0hn G0rmley was admirable in not calling him an arrogant prick!

Tr3v0r S4rg3nt on the TV, good man himself.

P4t R4bb1te on earlier. The man's a smug cnut but better him than McDowell. Any bets on who will be next government?

Good god! How bad is D4v1d D4v1n-P0wer's dye job. myeyesgogglesdonothing.jpg

I'm very impressed by the RTE radio commentators, who were on the air continuously from 12pm until at least 9.30 tonight, when I stopped listening.

The whole thing is, as the Vicar says, a victory for bland centrism. For people who want to protect their pensions and who don't give a shit about anyone who's a bit different. It's all very disappointing.

However, I do believe that the flight to the two major parties is a signal of something big coming around the corner, but I just can't quite figure out what that something is, other than the no-doubt upcoming economic downturn. I think the FF people got a bit of a fright this year, and that's why they ran for their first preferences, to keep themselves safe.

If I was Mary Harney, I'd be laughing my ass off right about now.

I would have liked to have seen Beverly Cooper Flynn out on her arse as well. Shame.

Our economy is not going to be doing too well in a year. It makes me very sad to know that I am buying a house (I hope) where the interest will be more than the increase in value... Still beats when my parents bought and it was at 17 or 19%. Madness!

What's interesting for me is that there is an old maxim along the lines of: When stocks are rising, buy a house. When Houses are rising, buy stock. If I wasn't desperate to buy a house I'd be trying the stock market.

But yeah, I'm really disappointed. I had real hopes that the Greens would make a real splash. I never wanted them to be a leading party in the day to day but I wanted them to have some kind of environmental influence. I do think they did though, politicans do like to be seen as hip to da groove etc.

MH didn't look like she was laughing. It's probably a bit tough to see the party that she gave so much to (I am trying to be nice here) used as the scapegoat by the party that she and others split from. It's like an abusive partner turning around after 10 years off the booze and lamping you on a bender. I suppose.

I'm pretty sure, though, that she must be delighted that Mad Dog presided over the demise of the party rather than her, and that after hounding her out of the leadership position, his ludicrous arrogance and thorough unpleasantness lost it for him.

Kev-lol, if you're buying a house because you want somewhere to live, then you'll be fine.

True enough re. PD.

That's what I'm going on at the moment. I'd love a clear sign that hey, a house is the best thing to buy right now :)

LOL @ David of the bad dye job on the tv re. Nazi boy:

"His wife and sons haven't seen much of him over the past 5 years so this is a cloud with silver lining"

Bad journalism I call you RTE! Bad suits, I call you the weatherman, Inspira Carmere I call you ruin! Good night my dears, I'm off to bed. It's a FF government tomorrow but at least my constituency is safe. Keep it local (and personal), that's my motto.

they chanted "cheerio cheerio cheerio" at him as he was making his pompous resignation speech.

That struck me as being a bit boorish. I am now starting to feel sorry for Maccer.

Am I the only person who dislikes the PDs less than Fianna Fáil?

You're joking! I don't think you're alone really, I would have more time for them if they had a) seemed more independent (not so reliant on FF) and b) had chosen different leaders over the past few years.

If Harney is the only PD elected, does that make her an independant?

No, she is a member of a party (in the same way that Joe Higgins is, say).

But she would count as an Independent for Dáil rules, as a parliamentary group needs to have at least seven members.

You're joking!

SRSLY, you'd rather have Chris Andrews as your TD?

No, I voted Gormley, Quinn and Creighton. Also Andrews is young but based on personal experience (he taught one of my best friends and when I visited said school for an open day he was v friendly and decent joking about his brother [the bloody awful David McS4v4ge, the twit in Temple Bar or Grafton Street with the drum on his back] who was based in Denmark at the times) I would have plenty of time for him. I would actually have voted for him if he had been with any other party (even PD if only to get rid of Michael)!

why do you keep google guarding all these names?

do you reckon McDowell will have to get a job in the Centra in the triangle in Ranelagh? Or maybe he will get some kind of entry level job as a technical writer. I hear Liz O'Donnell is starting in McDonalds soon.

I googleproof out of habit I suppose :)

I hear that Godfather's pizza is looking for deliverymen, I know I'd tip heavily if he came to my door lest he "make shit of my driveway" (sic). Liz O'Donnell hasn't worked before so she won't start now. I'd say Mr O'Donnell will be pulling extra shifts now! [/sexism]

That struck me as being a bit boorish. I am now starting to feel sorry for Maccer.

Are you kidding? He's one of the most arrogant, insulting, obnoxious people in public life and he deserves to be treated poorly. He treats other people poorly. Screw him. It's not like people booed Liz O'Donnell when she lost. Anyway, she's popular enough that she could actually get a proper job doing something else.

I am depressed about the whole election. Irish people are idiots.

Irish people are idiots.

Fixed :)

I think that DV might have been winding us up. I hope so anyway...

No, I don't think he is. He is a sporting gentleman who believes people should be treated in a civilised way, even if they are Mad Dog.

I disagree.

Oh dear! Well it's good to know that there are people out there like that anyway!

Yes, yes it is. I would not want to stoop to McDowell's level.

Stupid question, is there a complete list of the election results anywhere on the Interweb?

I don't know. Sorry. Not very helpful.

Irish Times website was pretty good throughout.

I found it very annoying - I kept getting e-mails from people telling me that person X or Y had lost their seat, with nothing obvious about it on the text based Internet. RTE was pretty rubbish too, unless you were using streaming audio.

RTE's website was truly dreadful wasn't it?

Just a big mess with some gigantic picture taking up space where info should have been. Amazing in this day and age.

I suppose we can be grateful that it didn't have a song in the background or smily faces at the end of every article!

Or the Lizard King.

I... I don't understand...

Santorum.jpg

Oh right, cheers for pointer towards thread. That boy works so hard!

I was pretty pleased with the election results, all told. I must have vastly different priorities to EVERY OTHER IRISH ILXOR. I do agree that the coverage was terrible. I was in the UK on Thursday pm, Friday and Saturday and found it very difficult to track progress.

I think that the result could have been easily foretold from a 50/50 perspective - with the mud-slinging fantango before polling the vote was going to swing violently in the direction of FF and FG, those that lost out (primnarily the PDs) did so on the basis of a leader who spoke unreservedly, which our electorate didn't appreciate.

McDowell was in my constituency and I am delighted with that result. I agree that Mary Harney must have had quite a chuckle behind closed doors.

I thought the coverage (TV & Radio) were fantastic! Papers, not so much sadly enough.

McDowell was brought down by his ego, pure and simple. He couldn't leave things alone, took everything personally (something well pointed out by that other egomaniac Adams during the debate) and couldn't help but preen near a camera. He was determined to lead the PDs and was blinded by his own greed to the fact that he was being handed a poisoned chalice. Truth be told, I think Harney acted in a mercenary manner but anyone could have seen the writing on the wall really!

What are your priorities Lara? My concern was that I wanted to remove the established old boys club for a new one (sigh). Also I wanted the Greens to have more of an effect, I would have been happier with them being bigger because while their policies are fairly limited I do want them at cabinet level for discussion. I hope that there will be one or two changes but I'm not sure that they'll really happen.

given the possible bump coming in the economy, i think consolidation was always going to be the order of the day coming up to this one.

is it possible FF knew it too, and played to it?

It's kind of an interesting one, because, as you say, the flight to the two main parties obviously means that the electorate is jittery about something, and the coming five years could possibly not be great for whoever's in government, so why do FF want it so bad right now, when possibly the smart thing to do would have been to soft pedal a bit and maybe let the others take over and screw up. Maybe FF reckons things aren't going to be so bad.

I am highly amused that the first business day after the election results and the Mahon tribunal is right back with the massive irregularities in Bertie's testimony regarding his money.

Quite right and I wonder what effect this commentary will have on the formation of our new government?

To be honest I think our often a-political electorate voted for the people who ran the best campaigns - on a local and national level. Those who didn't convince in the TV debates lost in waves. McDowell and Adams are most notable here.

I was in the UK and it was virtually impossible to find out what was going on. UK coverage = almost nil. Limited web coverage too.

McDowell did v badly on the debate 'tis true! I don't think it was the debate that threw it away for Adams, I think people got spooked by the idea of SF being in government! Lucinda Creighton totally proves your point though, she managed to get through on v little except fluff, that says she does seem really copped on and ready for what's next.

Mahon tribunal appears to have already messed up with their timing sadly enough. I don't really hold any faith in the tribunal system any more. It's not like I had much to begin with.

Everyone's expecting a bump, it's making houses cheaper but scares the shit out of me re. buying at the moment. All that crap about Stamp Duty didn't help.

SF was surely a long shot but Adams was terrible on economic policy, health service etc. It appeared that they (SF) had a single policy agenda.

Creighton is apparently brilliant, although I hate Enda Kenny too much to have voted FG. She's a non-practicing barrister. She and Varadkar seem to be the new breed of FG.

Is there any possibility of putting a stop to these tribunals? I predict a much more emphatic vote of togetherness if we were given that opportunity. And the savings could cover the cost of Stamp Duty!

Btw - I say buy anyway, if that's what you want. The Stamp Duty issue will be negated by price inflation for the next 1-2 years for definite.

UK coverage = almost nil. Limited web coverage too.

I thought it funny how the UK media were still running with the "Bertie to be thrown out of office by sulky electorate" story long after the polls were showing a bounceback for FF.

That's what I'm banking on Lara but thanks, always nice to get the reassurance.

Watching Questions and Answers last night. Poor Fiona O'Malley :(

Was she a bit sadface?

I think a bit shellshocked! She didn't really have anything except stock replies which really weren't that convinving. I just felt a bit sad thinking that for her it was much more than a party. Their biggest mistake was putting McDowell as leader, that killed the party. They were wondering last night if PDs could bounce back, O'Malley tried to point to FG as an example but it was pointed out that they were coming from 33, not 2. I think PDs be finished.

sorry did i just hear my radio right?

bertie's legal team has attacked the tribunal for interfering in the democratic process by investigating him publicly in the leadup to the formation of the new government.

can we really be letting this guy in again?

Yes. Him and his lovely grandkids: "No wait, don't look at my bank statements! Look at the babbies, aren't dey lovely? Ah bless Rocco JayZ Fifinoodle threw up! How can a corrupt politician have such lovely babbies?"

THE GREEN PARTY HAVE BETRAYED ME! Unbelievable. I wouldn't have voted for them had I know this was going to happen.

Also LOL x LOTS:

Mayo Fianna Fáil ‘in limbo’
Tuesday, 19 June 2007

M1ch43l Duffy and 41n3 Ry4n

THE honorary secretary of the Castlebar-based Johnny Jordan Cumann, Eamon Joyce, has this week stated that the comments made by An Taoiseach Bertie Ahern in relation to Beverley Flynn rejoining Fianna Fáil have left the party ‘in a state of limbo’ at grassroots level in the county.
Mr Joyce said the comments from the Taoiseach on RTÉ radio’s News at One were ‘totally unexpected’ and were in stark contrast to the sentiments expressed by headquarters before the recent General Election.
“We didn’t expect it all and we really fail to see where the Taoiseach is coming from on this one. As far as we can see, there is nothing but uncertainty surrounding Deputy Flynn at present. Her matters with RTÉ remain outstanding and now we have her constitutional challenge pending. God knows how long that is going to take,” said Mr Joyce, who said the hardworking members of the party now once again had to adopt a ‘wait-and-see approach’.
“What we really should be at is getting our house in order ahead of the local elections which are not that far away. In all honesty, it could still be two or three years before all the matters involving Deputy Flynn are resolved.”
Mr Ahern also said at the weekend that the process of Ms Flynn going back into Fianna Fáil would have to be resolved with her ‘local organisation’, but Mr Joyce said that clarification would have to be sought from party headquarters in relation to this process and also the process of re-admitting former members of Fianna Fáil who clearly canvassed for Ms Flynn before the General Election.
“After the Taoiseach’s comments, there are now people who feel they have legitimate claims to rejoin the party proper so we will have to seek clarification on this issue.”
Mr Joyce also refused to admit that allowing Deputy Flynn back into Fianna Fáil was the only way forward for the party in the county, as a Fianna Fáil TD would then be based in both Castlebar and Ballina.
“That all sounds great in a perfect world but unfortunately that’s not the case at present. We will just have to cross every bridge when we come to it and deal with the situations as they present themselves to us,” added Mr Joyce.
Mayo’s only elected Fianna Fáil deputy, Dara Calleary, also refused to herald the Taoiseach’s comments as solving all the problems faced by the party in the county. The newly-elected TD also felt that the comments were ‘a bit premature’.
“Once all the outstanding issues are resolved and there has been widespread consultation with the local organisation, it should be considered. I think the feeling on the ground is mixed and there will be some opposition to her being brought back in. The consultation needs to take in all of this,” said Deputy Calleary, stressing the importance of the local organisation in this process.
He also acknowledged that the dissolution of the Micheál Ó Moráin cumann in 2005 and the local political fall-out from that now seemed pointless.
In June 2005, Fianna Fáil National Secretary, Seán Dorgan, and Minister Noel Dempsey were involved in a number of meetings spearheading party re-organisation in the constituency. At the time the official party-line was that the Micheál Ó Móráin cumann was disbanded due to its continued support for Beverley Flynn, at that stage an Independent TD, having been expelled in 2004 after her failed Supreme Court appeal over the RTE libel case.
In an RTÉ interview last Friday, Bertie Ahern also said that he was very conscious that Ms Flynn was ‘a person of considerable ability’ and ‘we have a job to do in Mayo and in the west, we have to build up our strength as a party in the future’.
The Taoiseach went on to say: “I can’t give a commitment but I am in support of her in the party and I am also very conscious she is a person of considerable ability. I do believe that she had potential into the future to be a person that has capabilities of being an officer holder.”
Sources close to Ms Flynn feel that the Taoiseach’s comments mean he will consider her for a junior ministerial post when the current cabinet is re-shuffled two-and-a-half years into its term.

Constitutional challenge adjourned until July

Meanwhile, lawyers for RTÉ have described Deputy Flynn’s constitutional challenge as being a ‘litigious frolic in her own interest’.
The comments were made on Monday afternoon after lawyers for Ms Flynn outlined the grounds on which she wants to postpone bankruptcy proceedings being taken against her by RTÉ.
Her senior counsel, Gerard Hogan, said Ms Flynn was challenging the constitutionality of part of the 2002 Electoral Act, which disqualifies someone judged to be bankrupt from being a member of the Dáil.
He said she had raised major constitutional issues of public importance, and they were seeking an urgent, early hearing of the constitutional proceedings. The matter has been adjourned for two weeks.
Before the case was adjourned, Mr Hogan told Judge Elizabeth Dunne that Ms Flynn was served with a bankruptcy petition on June 2 after RTÉ failed to recover almost €3m in costs incurred by her in a failed libel action against the station.
He said she had already offered almost €600,000 to RTÉ, but that offer was rejected because RTÉ did not believe she had done all she could to discharge her debt.
The Electoral Act of 2002 provides that if a member of the Dáil is declared bankrupt and fails to discharge that bankruptcy within six months, they will be disqualified from membership of the Dáil.
Mr Hogan said the wishes of the electorate must be respected by the Oireachtas. He said there was inconsistency in the way members were disqualified.
Senior counsel for RTÉ, Cian Ferriter, said costs against Beverley Flynn had been assessed in September 2005 at more than €2m and interest was accruing at a rate of €500 a day.
And he said Ms Flynn had not paid a ‘red cent’ of that money. He said RTÉ had obligations to its licence payers and had to take this action for bankruptcy.
He said RTÉ had grave concerns about Ms Flynn’s efforts to postpone or adjourn the bankruptcy proceedings. He said she was embarking on litigation in her own interest to block the consequence she most feared, with complete disregard for RTÉ and its licence payers.
He said the constitutional proceedings were nakedly self-interested and would actively prejudice RTÉ. He added that RTÉ had had to bear the very costly consequences of her previous frolic and was now being asked to sit back while she embarks on another one.

Does anyone remember GREEN NIGHTMARE, the Sun's nightmare vision of what the UK would be like under a Green government?

Now that nightmare has come true in Ireland.

The worst thing is the silence.

When the Greens came for the motorists,
I remained silent;
I was not a motorist.

When they locked up the social smokers,
I remained silent;
I was not a social smoker.

When they came for the jaded journalists,
I did not speak out;
I was not a jaded journalist.

When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.

(sorry mr. Niemöller)

I suspect that FF have gone into government with the Greens in part to buy themselves some time with the Big Guns in Yerp who want to start fining us over our emissions.

(sorry mr. Niemöller)

This is your future.

Oh noes!

the greens are there for two main reasons-

they were cheap to get in, compared to labour.

they are soo fukn flakey that even people that should know better will be blaming them when things start to go wrong. see PD's for example.

any progress on house kv? where are you buying?

I bet the Greens will bring in a law saying that everyone has to live in TEEPEES.

Don't start, I need to find and be in by first of october. I don't think that'll be happening though! Yay for sympathetic uncles!

It's not so good darraghmac, I can't really get into it which is v bad. Also this whole thing about the stamp duty has fecked me up quite badly re. being willing to pay it in the first place so I was hoping to jump over other people. Looking at Crumlin, Inchicore, Stoneybatter and anywhere I can get. I don't want a flat and those areas have older houses that seem fairly solid. Are you an owner or looking at the moment?

Greens will be destroyed by FF. It's what they deserve imho.

not an owner, have quarter share in family home where i'm currently staying with one of my brothers.

wouldn't buy anywhere near me at the moment, rural houses and smaller towns won't be worth shite in three or four years, as far as i can see.

i see tradesmen are all over the meedja in the last week or two crying about the slow down. boo fukn hoo you bloodsuckin fucks..

OTM!

Nice one re. quarter share. Now if only he could be persuaded to marry... Meath will always stay pretty hot I'd say, Wicklow and environs could be very surprisingly boomy-y.

I've been wary of commuter belts (like navan road etc and beyond to the west) since the start: I can't drive! Also I felt that there was no way in hell there would be a proper infrastructure in place. Years later I am being proven right. Yay me, boo people getting hit for difference.

i think the greater dublin area (wherever you consider that to be yourself) is going to be fine- demand will be strong there for a long time yet.

a decent public transport (esp rail) network would help keep things strong for the forseeable future, but sure hey, anyone could tell you that.

not really nice one re quarter share, it was inherited. and he's not getting married until he learns to wash up after himself.

Oh man, sorry.

Yeah, railways would be good if it weren't for the fact that every one of our fancy new transport systems bottlenecks at some point or another. There really is no smooth-flow plan so far as I can tell.

It's not so bad though, if I could get within cycling distance of city centre would be great!

everywhere is within cycling distance, wimp.

My God, it's like my father has found ILX!

everywhere is within cycling distance, wimp.

I for one salute our new Green Party overlords.

they wouldn't have allowed bernard manning, for a start.

DV could be on to something. Do you have the inside track on that darraghmac, or should I say Green Party member #666???

ha! green party cadidate for my constituency was a stoner sk8er boi student. not my first choice.

i voted for Enda, cos he's actually a very nice man in person. and i wanted strolling access to the taoiseach.

Enda seems alright, too much of a wimp to be presidential in the way in which he was trying to sell himself!

didn't get dirty enough in the run up. hope he's learned his lesson.

You think that he'll try for leader again at the next election??? Come on, it'll be Lucinda Creighton for sure!

i have never heard of all these FG'ers called Lucinda Creighton. enda gets another shot without a doubt.

Who knows, it's not like he did a bad job at all. They made the most gains after all and that can hardly have been in spite of him! LC is the young lady who is definitely being groomed as a Mary Harney. She is also orange.

Apologies for comments on five words thread, I'm done.

no bother.

Trevor Sargent has quit. Will the PDs keep going do you think?

Had v bitter conversation with friend last week about Labour. Appears there is great disillusionment within the ranks.

That hoor Gormley's now leader of the Greens. Why did I even bother :(

why, were you hoping that Patricia McKenna would get in and stamp out the scourge that is vaccination and water fluridation?

Some have said that the government might not have a majority in the Seanad after the elections next week. This could threaten the very foundations of the state.

Ha ha no... I'm just still very disappointed with the way things went. I don't think I would have voted Green had I known. Ach, of course I would! It's a pity though, I had hoped that they would be an alternative rather than just cosy up immediately! What's the story re. Seanad and collapse of Ireland as we know it?

when the two Houses are divided against each other, only civil war can be the result.

Ah FFS! At least I don't have a brother to be fighting against. Maybe an elder sister. Oh jesus, I'm dead in that case :(

I wonder who would win a Dáil v. Seanad Civil War? The Dáil is bigger, of course, but the Seanad would be able to mobilise NUI engineering graduates into squads of fedaykin death commandos.

Dail has better bar = more beserkers = higher kill rate = teh winnah!!11!

The Dáil and Seanad share the same bar.

Oh noes! I thought they were seperate because of the whole smoking in the pub thing! Hmmm. Well I suppose it could all be Gangs of New York face off on merrion row! Isn't Seanad full of old people? One kick to hip and down a beating they slip. Needs work but it's roughly okay...

I thought they were seperate because of the whole smoking in the pub thing!

I do not understand this line of reasoning.

That is because u r fule (also that whole TD smoking against the rules thing was reported as happening in the Dail bar). It is not important.

Not starting another thread for NAMA, but the figures are out:

NAMA will buy €77bn NBV of property loans for €54bn. Market value is not something anybody is talking about.

Anybody interested?

How are ye getting on at all at all?

could someone please tell me wtf is up with iris robinson? i realize this is northern ireland we're talking about rather than irelandireland, but i heard about this on the radio and i live in chicago. this is crazier than hiking the appalachian trail...

this is the best explanation of what i know so far, plus suicide attempt
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8447383.stm

It's all a bit train-wreck.

I love a couple of things about all this.

1. Nornie politicians be as loving of backhanders from property developers as ours.

2. Isn't this the second financial scandal in the DUP? Didn't Ian Paisley retire partly because his idiot son was involved in some ethically dubious activity?

3. Gerry Adams must love that this is taking the heat of him regarding the child abuse allegations attaching themselves to his brother.

4. I also wonder whether SF still has fund-raising units involved in racketeering and whether these might suddenly spring back into the light.

5. Does the DUP have a shortage of politicians? Iris Robinson was until recently a local councillor, a MLA, and a MP, and Peter Robinson holds at least two of those roles. They also seem to be dominated by a handful of political families (witness their Deputy Leader's wife being their MEP). Do they not have anyone else?

6. It is always nice to see people who shite on about god's law being found out for breaking His commmandments.

7. what kind of 19 year old gets described as an "entrepreneur"?

8. and so on.

I imagine I can't tell you anything you don't already know, but here's one reason why people are so interested in this charming lady's family values slipping:

"I cannot think of anything more sickening than a child being abused. It is comparable to the act of homosexuality"
"There can be no viler act, apart from homosexuality and sodomy, than sexually abusing innocent children."

yeah, she's a mess. who voted for her? she's worse than blago, and that's no small statement.

the good folk of Strangford voted for her, by a pretty chunky margin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strangford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

Benjamin: "The more antagonistic a person is toward the traditional order, the more inexorably he will subject his private life to the norms that he wishes to elevate as legislators of a future society. It is as if these laws, nowhere yet realized, placed him under obligation to enact them in advance at least in the confines of his own existence. The man, on the other hand, who knows himself to be in accord with the most ancient heritage of his class or nation will sometimes bring his private life into ostentatious contrast to the maxims that he unrelentingly asserts in public, secretly approving his own behavior, without the slightest qualms, as the most conclusive proof of the unshakable authority of the principles he puts on display. Thus are distinguished the types of the anarcho-socialist and the conservative politician."

ok, so here's my question: are they just afraid of who else might rise to power if they don't vote for her (the daley model) or do they not care or did they trust her? does she appear otherwise dutiful and normal in her public appearances or is she a loose cannon type?

NI politics is a mess. None of my N. Irish friends vote because they don't feel there are any viable options for people who don't want to vote for any old nutjob along the lines of "usuns against themmuns".

There are some cross-community parties, but when I've asked if they wouldn't consider them either they're too small to get anywhere or it's "well they say they're neither this nor that but actually..." and so on. I don't know if it's true or not but there's just such ingrained suspicion/mistrust/contempt for the political system among everyone I know. Self-perpetuating, of course, but how can you break it?

I am not Northern Irish so don't really know enough to talk about this, sorry for wading in.

i am obviously not northern irish either, but this is interesting to me. people are disinclined to vote for so many reasons, and i guess i'm interested in the varying reasons people don't vote in other countries or, alternately, how such wretched people always wind up in "public service" and stay there forever.

I read a pretty interesting article once about how/why the more moderate parties on both sides had actually declined since the Good Friday agreement and the parties with previous militant associations picked up more votes, but I can't find it now. It makes sense in a way but it seems a shame that more strongly sectarian voting patterns should become even more entrenched at the same time as making such major progress.

(I do not know if the UUP are any less crazy than the DUP, but I feel bad for the SDLP losing ground)

(Confession: seeing as Northern Irish partner and his friends aren't interested in politics chat, I get most of it from the banter on the NI music scene forum, which I thought had been strangely silent on this issue until just there now when I realised the epic 19-page thread on the front page entitled "Iris / Adultery" was not in fact promoting a two-band bill of doomtastic post-metal sounds)

I am always a bit suspicious of supposedly moderate Nornies and their disdain for cross-community parties.

The Slugger O'Toole blog is meant to be good for people who are interested in politics Up There.

The GFA entrenched a system whereby to win votes you had to be from one or other community. It arguably then makes sense to compete on the basis of being the party best qualified to stick it to the other community.

Disdain for cross-community parties seems weird/frustrating to me too but if I'd grown up to be so suspicious of politicians' motives I'd probably feel it too.

Plus I am well aware that e.g. there are things I think I know about the Tories that can't be learnt from looking at their website, so if someone tells English old me that I don't know the full story about a NI party, I have to agree that I probably don't, and that the background renders misunderstandings potentially nastier over there.

I look at Slugger O'Toole occasionally and it's usually worth a read, if sometimes hard for an outsider to unpack, yes.

Did the wording of the GFA specifically entrench this system? I agree that it has become further entrenched since the GFA. (Genuine question, would like to read more about how it happened)

i couldn't really even think of participating in a conversation about this scandal on a political level, but on a personal level it's fascinating.

The GFA required parties in the NI Assembly to designate themselves as Nationalist or Unionist, and it requires the First Minister to be from the majority community and the Deputy First Minister to be from the minority, with both being elected on one slate that has to win in both communities.

I think when the DUP were against the Agreement they experimented with tactically declaring themselves Nationalists to cause trouble, but were blocked from doing this... am I remebering this right?

what kind of 19 year old gets described as an "entrepreneur"?

the kind that doesn't call himself a gigolo?

have we done the blasphemy law yet?

doctor doctor my eye hurts

there's something in your iris

dr dr my eye hurts

you've been crying excessively because you've discovered your wife is fucking the paperboy. And paid for it.

"There can be no viler act, apart from homosexuality and sodomy, than sexually abusing innocent children."

Oh, I hope there was sodomy involved with that guy.

Inquiry into the causes of the financial/banking crisis to take place behind closed doors.

Genuinely, is there anyone out there with experience in carrying out a political coup? Bloodless if possible, but the alternative will work also in a pinch.

According to the Irish Times at the moment Gormley is 200 votes ahead (so my vote worked!)

you are part of the problem

George Lee resigns from FG and Dáil Eireann

GET THEM OUT

feel a wee bit sorry for G. Lee... also feel like there's a bit of a messiah complex going on here.

Based on the initial public reaction it seems like this is pretty bad news for FG, which I'm totally fine with, so long as FF don't benefit...

inital public reaction is gonna change the more lee speaks. messiah complex is starting to look more and more appropriate- head of various economic policy task forces and committees, about to be offered a place on the front bench next week (and aware of this) but he quits complaining that he hasn't been able to dictate economic policy. to the opposition party he joined 9 months ago.

it's bad news for enda, certainly, but really if this is the extent of the guy's problems then he's a fucking idiot, has proven himself to be style over substance and has lost a lot of credibility for when he does crawl back to the job he stated publicly wouldn't be held for him last year before he was elected.

what odds a labour taoiseach?

inital public reaction is gonna change the more lee speaks.

probably right. his appearance on joe duffy had me squirming with embarrassment... jd was pressing him on what particular policies/principles had been rejected / ignored by FG, lee refused to be drawn which just makes no fucking sense to me. i do think he is a fucking idiot. kind of beautiful that he's still on leave of absence from RTE! maybe it was all an undercover thing for prime time...

don't know/care enough about FG's internal politics to guess at what this means for enda kenny as opposed to the wider party, but the party line seems steady for the moment, EK expressing presidential "regret" while Varadkar etc put the boot in.

a labour taoiseach eh? that would really be something. definitely seems like it's their time to shine. i'd personally like to see them stop courting coalition partners (so not gonna happen tho).

Ah no Lab needs FG. but even though they'll get in (please god they'll get in FFS) as a junior party in a coalition i can't see FG coming up with a Taoiseach. Enda will be gone before then, (though I'm really unsure who's placed to take over) and will be president before 2020.

never had much time for willie o'dea, but his comment on this was A+-

"George Lee was like FG's bidet- he gave them a touch of class but they didn't know what to do with him"

I very much doubt there will be a Labour Taoiseach unless they win more seats than FG, which is not very likely.

While it's a given that FG will have more seats, I'm not at all sure that they'll have a candidate for the top job. At the moment they're not sure that they even have a candidate for party leader to challenge the non-endaty

They will have a party leader, and whoever that is will be their candidate for the top job.

I know other countries sometimes see premiers from junior coalition parties, but it has never happened here, so it would be a real leap. We have only ever had one premier who was not leader of the largest coalition party, and even he was a TD of that party. So I reckon the premiership is in FG's gift, assuming they are the largest party in the next government (which may mean assuming that Labour does not coalesce with the soldiers of destiny again).

can't see labour breaking at the moment, but there's a serious dearth of ideas/profile/challengers in FG at the moment- I just see Gilmore as a much more taoiseachy prospect. maybe i'm just a crazy dreamer.

would love labour to be the senior partner, btw. FG don't deserve to lead a government, they've been little but a FF reserve outfit the past 20 years.

Mmmm yeah, but no real sign of Labour passing FG or FF any time soon.

maybe i'm just a crazy dreamer

maybe you are.

I'm actually holding out for the new party that Michael McDowell is reputedly about to launch.

anything that stretches out the margins a bit would maybe be welcome?

alternatively, any party with policies* as opposed to reactions to headlines would be a victory worth taking the week off work for.

* not the green party thanks they're imbeciles..

Angry Enda is maybe more embarrassing than corrupt Bertie.

fg=ff basically we are going to hell no matter what happens imo

LABOUR TAOISEACH MAAAAAN

get that sad sack face off and let's make this shit happen imo

yah like thats how i vote but its not srsly gonna happen anytime soon lets call a spade a spade

it will happen. there will soon be no alternative, post-enda breakdown, post FF unelectable.

yah, also kill all old ppl and creepy young ff types

plenty tossers in labour too as far as i recall

plenty fuckerz generally iirc

not voting for fuckers is impossible, so vote them out regularly and at least the brighter fuckers will eventually get the message that you're watching them reeeall closely.

"I am a victim here too"

http://evertb.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/willie.jpg

D'you think if we told the wider ILX about this guy they'd even believe us?

Who is he?

he is our minister for defence, and the govt are fully behind him.

He told a local newspaper that a local councillor in his constituency had involvement in running a brothel, then submitted a sworn statement denying this in the ensuing defamation case. Despite being on tape. He's actually pretty representative of his party, the majority member of govt.

I uh...I realise that may be disappointingly bland after the pic.

yeah this fucking guy

pretty much the go to guy in limerick iirc and and a living testament to how ff r just a racket

also genuinely a freaky looking dude. just....no

remember q's outside my village local of people looking for favours from Papa Willie back in the 80's

'shure idnt he a self taught barrister, fair play to him!'

^^yeah, same old last time i checked in that pub i can never remember the name of

When was the last time a FF TD resigned, I wonder?

Ray Burke? He resigned government and Dáil all in one "fuck the lot of yis" go.

It would be great if it turned out that O'Dea had been carefully promoting his pals in the army, to such an extent that he came back as Generalissimo next week. Then you'd be sorry.

I'm a bit sorry he's gone - I've always had a sneaking regard for him, but there should be no room for perjurers at the top table.

first step in collapse of government, or just another distasteful episode that they'll get away with (going back to, oh, the aforementioned Biffo, right?)

i'm not sorry he's gone, he's a good encapsulation of FF arrogance, if not the embodiment of all of their worst traits in one person (that'd be O'Donoghue)

Genuinely, is there anyone out there with experience in carrying out a political coup? Bloodless if possible, but the alternative will work also in a pinch.

Darraghmac, If you're still interested in a coup, I believe the classic text is 'Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook' by Edward Luttwak. I remember liking it, but I haven't read it for years.

i will keep this in mind. hope willie doesn't get there first.

now, if only someone could take enda aside and teach him to read as well as he writes, he'd actually stand a chance:

The following is the full statement by Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny TD on the resignation of Minister for Defence, Willie O’Dea

“Resigning his position in Cabinet must have been very difficult for Willie O’Dea and a very trying event for his family. However, Willie O'Dea's resignation was an inevitable consequence of his swearing of a false affidavit before the High Court.

“The refusal of the Taoiseach and his colleagues in government to demand any accountability for this behaviour was the reason that I tabled a motion of no confidence in Deputy O'Dea on Tuesday night.

“Now that he has bowed to the inevitable, he leaves behind a cabinet whose credibility is in tatters. Despite knowing the full facts, the Taoiseach and his Fianna Fail and Green ministers queued up just yesterday to vehemently support Deputy O'Dea, to assert that he had done nothing wrong other than a simple human mistake, and to vote complete confidence in him.

“This debacle raises fundamental questions about the Taoiseach's willingness to enforce proper standards of behaviour in his Government. Despite knowing the facts of this situation since December, Brian Cowen apparently didn't even ask for an explanation until the issue became the subject of a newspaper editorial earlier this week. The tenor of his subsequent defence of Willie O'Dea, during which the Taoiseach said that Deputy O'Dea had met his standard, casts serious doubt about this Taoiseach's understanding of the type of conduct that should be required of cabinet ministers. His handling of this crisis leaves a huge question mark over his judgement and credibility as Taoiseach.

“This affair also leaves the government in disarray. The main partner has confirmed that the Fianna Fail code of ethics has been safely passed on to this generation of the party.

“The junior partners, the Greens, have been emphatically and decisively humiliated and have confirmed their role as Fianna Fail's mudguard.

“Finally, the third leg of this shaky stool, the remnants of the PDs, have confirmed that any sense of values that existed when that party was founded have been well and truly abandoned in favour of retaining power at any cost.”

what a fascinating country you live in!

i have no indication as to whether that's sarcasm or not max.

i have spent like 20 minutes reading about ff and fg and i still cant figure out what the difference is between them on any issue except europe

you have grasped it fully imo

the difference between them- ff are in power constantly, and fg aren't.

exciting!

i have no indication as to whether that's sarcasm or not max.

but i suspect that it is- the only answer i have is that they're the only politicians we've got, for the time being.

no i mean it! i think!

i have gravely erred in fact in what i told you- the big difference between FF and FG is that FF are against the treaty and FG, while admitting it's imperfections, think it is a document that can be used to pave the way to full independence in time.

that's a fairly big difference, in fairness.

the treaty here is not some EU treaty, but a treaty signed 90 years ago between Britain and Ireland.

its ok, as far as i can tell were still fighting about slavery in the US

loooool

Jesus there goes Trevor Sargeant now and all

huh

Too little too late, mister market gardening enthusiast.

FF know the game, the Greens don't even know they're in it.

yeah, although FF do seem to be playing the game of breaking up their own government. Well done FF.

the game is played on different levels- the first level is cut a fucker's throat when he crosses you. Govt stability is level 2 or further (after personal gain). Running the country in a proper manner is level 72.

yeah, although FF do seem to be playing the game of breaking up their own government. Well done FF.

They might be breaking up this government, but maybe they're doing it on purpose. They've run the PDs into the ground, they're running the Greens into the ground, and it's unlikely that FG and Labour could form a government on their own without other small parties. So maybe they're just playing a medium-term game, ensuring that the next election sees them form a government on their own. Maybe.

another thought- it's not like there's a level of msiconduct that's unbecoming a Minister of State yet is fine for an elected TD.

Where is the pressure on these pricks to quit their posts, not just their perks?

Also I think trishyb could be OTM- FF are fucked, they know they're fucked, and in the circumstances damage to the Greens could be motivated by more than mere spite. Still think it was a reaction to O'Dea first and foremost, and if Lab/FG play their cards half right they'll crush the next election.

I reckon next time round FG and Labour will easily form a government on their own. FF are pissing on their chips in the long run, as they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over. As they will never be able to win a majority alone, they are perhaps looking at a long spell on the opposition benches.

Where is the pressure on these pricks to quit their posts, not just their perks?

at the next election the electorate get to decide whether these guys have committed an offence that makes them unworthy of sitting in parliament.

you have remarkable faith in 'the long run' being a feature in irish politics, particularly in relation to:

they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over

which has always bneen pretty clear, non?

and

the electorate get to decide

man oh man fuck the electorate. we need a new electorate.

electorate is old ppl

are you saying that they will die soon and then we will have a new one?

at the next election the electorate get to decide whether these guys have committed an offence that makes them unworthy of sitting in parliament.

Kind of. I mean, they can either vote for these people or vote for someone they completely disagree with, conduct or not.

yeah the hope that there will be a huge influx of new candidates, or even a small inlux of new candidates with a reasonable chance of success, is unrealistic.

which has always bneen pretty clear, non?

it's a lesson that does not always seem to have sunk in. Apparently significant numbers of people in Labour are talking about "keeping their options open", which basically means going into govt with FF.

in fairness to people who go into government with FF, the PDs did well in two elections where they were FF's coalition pals.

Apparently significant numbers of people in Labour are talking about "keeping their options open",

here's an option, Labour- get FF out, and start earning your fucking money.

jesus christ can you imagine if they start getting cute about the coalition now.

Did they? I thought the number of TDs they managed to return diminished with each election. I can't remember though, and that might just have been a function of them being essentially crap and unsustainable as a party anyway.

FF are pissing on their chips in the long run, as they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over.

Clear to who (whom?) though? If anyone in Labour is honestly thinking about going into coalition with FF, then the lesson is clearly still far from being learned.

Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.

Labour can't go with FF, now that I've taken a few deep breaths. Not only on the historical evidence of the long-term damage it does to smaller parties, but also because there's a genuine groundswell of support for Labour's politics and policies (well, as I assume those to be anyway) that will not come around again in a generation, and they would kick that into touch in an instant were they even to be suspected of considering an FF coalition.

RIP BIG MAN

Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.

for a while, the PDs did better in elections when they were in government (with FF) than when they were in opposition. Maybe they had more to show for their supporters. Or something.

However, the PDs also had a tendency to do very badly in elections every so often, so it maybe was only a matter of time before they did so badly they got wiped out. It might be reading too much into it to say they were wiped out because they were in coalition with FF - they were just bound to get a very bad result sooner or later.

PD's political ideology is always going to be cyclically popular or otherwise to a much larger extent than FF, FG. Same with Lab, to be fair, but probably not to the saem extent.

Govt with FF (particularly Justice/Health ministerial posts, how can you win votes on those issues?) was just the killer blow, maybe.

NAMA seems to have been completely ignored on this thread. anybody else think its a terrible idea? there are plenty of alternatives to this crap shoot.

I'm not normally (hell maybe I am) one to just go along with barroom solicitors' opinion, but NAMA really is just a bailout for developers and banks, to the detriment of everybody else. I've not seen the proposals for dealing with the empty properties across the country, but if the social housing lists aren't decimated then NAMA will have been a complete whitewash.

cullen admitted to hospital now. jeez i'd say minister's health/life/income protection insurance is going through the roof.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hFNcC7dde6DREm6fdWhjfr3cqCDwD9EGNS980

Now there's a surprise, whodathoughit?

Never mind that

so, have i got this right-

monday morning- director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

tuesday- anglo irish admit that pay rises are going ahead in a bank that's effectively in receivership to the government

wednesday- another director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

i mean.

tbh i only think this is all funny now

tbh it's funny now.

tbh it's not going to be when the crash comes, and we get to look back on this last decade like americans in the 1930-40's looked on wall street in the 1920's

the crash comes?

when the crash comes.

do people in ireland expect it to get drastically worse than it already is?

tbh relatively ireland aint that bad, yet, its not the 80s or even the early 90s but i mean

i think it'll get iceland in september or so.

jesus

there's still a huge amount of property overvaluation propping up the banks. foreclosures haven't started with gusto yet, but they will before long. the govt were criticised about predicting a 'soft landing' for the housing market instead of a crash in early 2008. that criticism was wrong- we're in the middle of our soft landing.

there's huge amounts of empty houses- if the govt cut a deal to get these finished (create some employment for the 270k+ out of work atm, most of whom are relatively unskilled construction) and transferred to social housing as part of the NAMA deal (clear housing lists, get the blow to property value over quickly, get us off the property-as-an-'investment' fix that killed us) then we might make it.

can't see a FF led builder/banker/homeowner govt going for this, so we'll see ye at the IMF

(ps i am somewhat of a pessimist)

i read the irish times last week and it was a horror story enough what with the opaque banking system and the paedopriests

even at the time the bubble seemed deranged, at least in london there is a natural scarcity of land and influx of people that puts a highish limit on any price collapse but the value of a huge mcmansion in the irish countryside is pretty arbitrary in some senses

arbitrary?

4/5 bed mcmansions currently offered for rent at about €100 a week, and they're struggling to find biters at that. mortage on a property like that is likely to be anything from 750 pm upwards.

that's kinda insane

compared to the sort of figures i'd be familiar with the price per sq ft is negligible, so without the land having much residual value it's sort of difficult to tell what else does? i dunno, you'll notice i'm somewhat unschooled in this area

land is rural in large part, rezoned through corrupt local planning decisions. it has absolutely nil residual value in most cases, and the houses are pretty much useless without the owner taking occupation.

i'm not sure about the likes of high density apts, city & town estates in the larger metropolitan areas, but given that there was more money in that side of things i'm fairly happy to assume that even where the values are holding in terms of investor groups picking up some of the slack, the oversupply biult up during the past decade is of at least the same magnitude.

estimates on empty housing units go as far as 300,000 iirc. govt disputes this of course. driving from the west coast to dublin, i'd not be surprised- anywhere west of the shannon new estate occupancy seems to be at about 20% for any development built in the past 3-4 years.

The Construction Industry Federation has said there is a need for accurate, reliable data on housing stock levels.

It was responding to research by UCD which found that there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

The CIF acknowledges that the figure is high but said different studies have come back with a variety of figures.

Its own figures suggest that 35,000-40,000 new homes remain unsold.

It says in Dublin the problem of unsold housing will resolve itself in around nine months, and with no development in the pipeline waiting-lists for housing will result in high growth areas.

The CIF admitted there is a problem in many counties around the country but said the market will ultimately sort that out.

the CIF are economists with the country's best interests at heart. they have rather magnificently been trying to float the idea of knocking all the empty houses as a keynesian macguffin exercise, because, hey, if oversupply's the problem then we've all got sledgehammers, right? expect sledgehammer rental prices, sledgehanmmer wielder wages to rise 40% this year. and on we go.

there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

and there are about 4 million people? that's just.....

i dunno

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house, assumign that all of the units will be accepted into NAMA (they won't be, but then there will be plenty of occupied units taken in under the 'We'll cover your stupidity' initiative.

so what will you do with the airing cupboard of a bungalow in offaly?

well pre 2008 the obvious answer was rent it to a polish family.

i work in a housing scheme where the local authorities are renting properties to meet the needs of those on the housing list in the medium term. i can see most of those properties coming on to something like that- using excess capacity to actually solve a major problem.

everyone on a waiting list outside of the major metro areas (of which we have maybe 3) will have their housing need met or negated in the next three years, if we play it smart.

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house,

lol. that's 1/12 of a house. so i've upgraded from hotpress to downstairs loo.

thought you must have been using the through the looking glass nu-maths popular in accountancy in the mid 00s

how much of that was developers assuming the population would be swollen by more immigrants? or did they assume everyone would go and buy a 3000sq ft house in the middle of nowhere

Developers only need to get a sale, they don't need a view on immigration, etc. Suspect cavalier investors were the target market there.

they wouldn't factor into individual developments but surely larger developers would have queried the levels of surplus being created

it was banks lending to individuals for the mcmansions, tbh.

then there's a layer of builders that would have always worked in the trade on a one-job-at-a-time basis that got in above their heads. they'd have gotten away with a lot of it as they'd have worked fairly organically- disposing of properties to fund the purchase of other sites, etc. they've mostly folded/are in the process of folding and the banks now own/soon will own whatever unfinished/unsold properties remaind on their portfolios (there are lots of these guys). they just reacted to a big surge in activity/demand for their services, not pre-meditated at all.

then there are superdevelopers, in hoc to banks for hundreds of millions. most of their activites were predatory, cynical and premeditated only in the sense of skimming huge supernormal profit out of the boom. they'll walk away rich for the most part, protected by a labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

NAMA is taking on the bank's toxic balance sheet assets (at a PREMIUM to current market value, btw- think about that at a time when values are plummeting and 350k properties are empty- we are assured that developers will be pursued to the fullest extent by the govt after this occurs. i have grave doubts.

sorry am a it tl:dr on this subject, but if you thought something was happening before your eyes that would lead to you emigrating in protest, you might be a little O_o yrself.

no, it's miserable but sadly compelling reading

labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

this isn't going to change is it?

at a PREMIUM to current market value

i believe the term was 'Future Value'.

they're not paying me at 'future value'. why not assume i'll get better at a rate of 8% per annum all of a sudden?

xp all depends on the apathetic part. there will be public sector strike action, i'm only hoping that it's as part of a total shutdown of the country. more than likely, it will be played beautifully as the elite protected workers rubbing it into the faces of the unemployed/private sector.

they're corrupt, venal, self serving and shallow cunts, FF, but they're not fucking stupid

was just pointing out the absurdity of it all with that phrase, darragh. dont see anyone in irish politics willing to switch the game up and the older generation (people who vote) still seem to cling to some hope that shure it'll have to get better soon.

yeah i know.

nobody in irish politics exists that has credibility to lead the assault on the banking and property sectors necessary. it will take something huge from outside the establishment to change that.

joe higgins and pat rabbitte need to procreate, basically. we can shelter the progeny through the dark years as a light in the darkness

CSO Figures show drop of 11.3% from 2008 in GNP

First calls from a backbencher for Cowen to resign. Not news until FF TD's are actually calling for an election, tbh, and not good news until they're decimated in that election.

John Gormley, Green Party Minister and my boss, has asked people to turn off all of their electrical items for an hour at 8.30pm tomorrow.

He's giving a televised speech about it for Earth Hour. Televised. At 8.30pm tomorrow.

NAMA day tomorrow guy. ready for the banks and developers to get the savage valuation of their assets expected?

what, no?

I know I'm talking in an empty room here for the most part, but if the unions buy this deal, on the details I've heard so far, I will fry my hat in a little butter, shallot and nutmeg and consume it with a wilted spinach side.

But they worked through the night to get this deal! Funny letter in the Irish Times today suggesting talks shd start in the morning instead of after lunch...

Unions- We don't want any more pay cuts.

Govt- Ok. We can't guarantee that though. We need you to agree to everything we ask- unconditionally, though.

Unions- Sound.

I don't even disagree with the reforms, tbh, but in terms of what the unions said they were seeking they've come out with fuck all.

I expect the details to maybe be a little sharper than what's posted above. But then again maybe not.

NAMA day starts with a bang!

Unions & govt agree deal

Quinn Insurance go into administration

I mean that last one is without warning, at the request of the financial regulator, and is huge news.

Why am I in a union again?

ha just mailed a fellow public sector friend asking him if he knew what qualifications you needed to become a union negotiator.

god help the dude if he plays poker.

fuckin shambolic. the govt could have come up with this 'compromise' on their own, except for two aspects- no public-service only pay cuts until 2014, and those under 35k to receive priority in the no-doubt-imaginary pay review of spring 2011.

and the final clause will wipe even those out, because everyone knows full well that the 'unexpected' deterioration in the exchequer is a goddamned fucking certainty.

btw, those of you not in public sector unions- 'the details' just came out.

This morning, the Cabinet was briefed by the Minister for Finance, NAMA and the Financial Regulator on the details of the impaired loan and recapitalisation schemes to be unveiled this afternoon.

A formal decision of the Cabinet will initiate the transfer of loans from the banks and building societies to NAMA.

At 4.30pm NAMA is expected to confirm the transfer of the first tranche of loans from Irish Nationwide and EBS and will give details of the discount it has applied to these loans.

It will also set out the discounts to be applied to the loans that will shortly transfer from Bank of Ireland, AIB and Anglo Irish Bank.

These are understood to be well in excess of the 30% estimated by the Government last year.

motherfuckers motherfuckers motherfuckers

16bn NBV (lols) worth of loans transferred for 8.5bn.

Almost sounds like good value, until you ask whether they're actually worth anything like 8.5bn- it's secured by 5bn worth of assets, the majority of those assets are .......
..........
..........

(wait for it)

.............
.............

LAND

oh good grief i'm fucking emigrating.

^^^^^^^^^

ok i dont really get any of this really but that last post sounds pretty scary d.

NAMA isn't turning out as badly as I first feared, actually. First hurdle cleared- we took a lot of bad loans from the banks, essentially, so that they could basically start again without those bad loans screwing up their balance sheets.

The good news is that we haven't overpaid as much as I'd feared. They had to take a 47% hit on average on today's loans.

The next step is now the crucial part- within 31 days anyone that owes money to NAMA will have to present a business plan for repayment. I have real doubts as to FF's ability to chase this aggressively, but as I've said a pleasant enough surprise today, despite my earlier post (was having a bad day besides with the union sellout).

It's up to the members of the various public sector unions to decide that this deal is acceptable or not. If a private sector firm offered terms like it to their employees backed by 'agree or else' terminology the media would be up in arms. Particularly if the financial situation the firm found itself in was as a result of mismanagement by the very executives arranging the threats/ultimatums.

So much for the protected public sector and their guaranteed contracts, eh?

The public sector, at the end of this crow's feast, will have become a minimum wage occupation at entry level.

Maybe that's a good thing, I don't know. Everyone else seems to think so.

Personally, and specifically relating to this 'deal'- I doubt very much that there is anything better on the horizon (on the day that the empty headed experts predict that we're coming to the end of the recession, mind you! As if!), but I still refuse to vote in favour of this deal.

It was negotiated in bad faith by a union team with more in common with the people opposite them at the fancy Croke Park meeting room table than the people they are paid (and paid well, without the pay cuts the rest of us have suffered) to represent in negotiations.

This deal is not the result of any negotiation process. It's a stinkbomb sent down from above with no editing required from govt inception to release as a fait accompli. When the unions (rightly) reject it as nothing more than a FF wishlist with no guarantee and no compromise from their side, then the media and govt can once again depict us as a band of bloodsuckers out to drain the country's current account of money it doesn't have.

It was a no-lose scenario for FF from the moment our own negotiation team rolled over for them, and I once again commend their political know-how.

A vote against this deal is likely a vote for further media & indeed message board pillorying (did I just invent that word?) of the public sector. It's likely a vote for pay that a lot of us can ill afford to lose going on strike days (which will be cleverly organised by our own unions so that they won't have to pay us any allowances- bet on it). It's certainly going to give this govt carte blanche to cut pay and conditions further (hooray! ten euro per hour take-home, here I come!).

So be it.

This is the first time anyone has been able to register a democratic vote of protest against this government's deeds, failings and methods. I only wish that there was a 'good on ye' attitude from the onlookers, as opposed to the 'tow-the-line ye greedy feckers' attitude that's not exactly served us brilliantly so far.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0414/1224268309304.html

NAMA earning less than predicted. A week into operations.

Also confirms that unfinished developments outside of Dublin will be demolished if they can't be completed economically.

Who could have predicted it eh?

I'm in danger of turning this thread into a wasteland. Sorry!

Quinn Insurance accepts the appointment of an administrator.

not at all. but what can you say? that fintan o'toole article the other week saying there's nothing left to do except gtfo struck a depressing chord.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

Jesus that article is depressing. Come to london lads, barely anyone mentions the recession...and booze is cheap.

at this stage the best-case scenario is public sector unions rejecting pay deal --> all-out strike --> general strike --> particularly bloody coup d'etat.

This is certainly what I'm hoping for, but I'm pretty sure we all know where a public sector strike will lead. public strike ----> media slaughtering -----> no public support ------> faltering disaster -------> Govt/media triumph -------> futher cuts, this time gloves off.

It's almost like people have forgotten that there are private sector unions. It's certainly as if the public sector unions have forgotten about them as potential allies vs media/govt/big business.

labour party conference speech good

eh cowley i'm 50-50 on- great, great work locally and he's intelligent and capable. but i mean, letting himself get hijacked by those fucking clowns last time round lost him a lot of support and credibility

Worth reading, for all that it's in the increasingly cheerleadertastic Irish Times

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0420/1224268693609.html

Europe riding to the fucking rescue!

Well, that wasn't ideal last night but in principle I think mobilisation (if people are bothered enough) and 24 hour national strike would be nice.

Anyone got any other viewpoint on it? Low paid public sector non-homeowner smartasses may not be fully representative of the mood out there, I'm aware.

itt: dmac liveblogs about a country that's even more fucked than the cunts over there

it's turned into that, tbs, tbs.

we used to have irish here but i think i've run them all off.

oh, and we are really fucked, but in the long term the noises from the eu about peer-review of national finances is a v good thing with the quality of politician we're stuck with atm.

Low paid publicprivate sector non-homeowner smartasses may not be fully representative of the mood out there, I'm aware.

― Black IP's (darraghmac), Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:54 PM (1 hour ago)

not really the place to find a diversity of views

good luck, ireland

shd become a tax haven and get some of that newly-returning-UK-Tory-fans cash rolling in

just for perspective i work in a coffee shop that is v. expensive bc you get a fancy handmade chocolate free w/ your chocolate and we are the most popular coffee shop in town and i kinda feel like ppl just like to complain really.

It's true- there's plenty of money out there in the middle/upper middle earner brackets, and particularly where mortgages have been mainly covered already. That's why taxes need to SOAR in the next budget.

Govt holding in AIB rises to 18% as repayments due under last year's recapitalisation fall due, but are paid in shares instead.

That's why why taxes need to SOAR in the next budget.

The first thing that would happen, were the government foolish enough to do that, is that those who currently still have some disposable income really would tighten their purse strings. Which would put plax out of a job, sharpish.
If the seventies and eighties taught us anything, it's that you can't tax your way out of a recession. Or, put another way, that screwing the middle classes is counter-productive.
That's my reasonably well paid, private sector, homeowning smartass opinion, anyhow.

govt have more than demonstrated that they don't admit ownerhip of any of this recession, and it's quite clear that they're not intending to spend their way out of it.

given that their proposed public sector pay deal leaves pay untouched as a net spend, and the low corporation tax rate is sacred text fairly large income tax increases are the inevitability.

we're still a low tax economy, i can't see how else things are going go given stated intent on all other fronts. big further cuts in welfare/pensions, hikes in both tax rates, maybe a superhigh rate finally introduced.

ps if the 70's and 80's thought us anything (and it's quite clear they didn't) it's that popularist FF govts leave a hell of a hangover

pps: hi!

i promise that i have no problem w/ losing my job btw

^ this stands true for me too also. we are soldiers to the cause. if i lost my job i would sit outside the dail on a blanket throwing horseshoes at politicians.

me too also btw

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/67ae51e2-5e35-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html

Decent article from an outside perspective. Bit of the 'soundbite' about a lot of it, but they picked the right soundbites at least. Explains most of the mess and the causes in clear enough terms.

Morgan Kelly in the Irish Times today: Brace yourself-

"Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece.

On the face of it, Ireland’s debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland’s government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)

Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this debt quite quickly. However, in contrast to its inept handling of the banking crisis, the Government has taken reasonable steps to bring the deficit under control. If all goes to plan we should be looking at a debt of 85 to 90 per cent of GDP by the end of 2012.

This is quite large for a small economy, but it is manageable. Just about. What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the bank bailout.

We can gain a sobering perspective on the impossible disproportion between the bailout and our economic resources by looking at the US. The government there set aside $700 billion (€557 billion) to buy troubled bank assets, and the final cost to the American taxpayer is about $150 billion. These sound like, and are, astronomical numbers.

But when you translate from the leviathan that is America to the minnow that is Ireland, it would be equivalent to the Irish Government spending €7 billion on Nama, and eventually losing €1.5 billion in the process. Pocket change by our standards.

Instead, our Government has already committed itself to spend €70 billion (€40 billion on the National Asset Management Agency – Nama – and €30 billion on recapitalising banks), or half of the national income. That is 10 times per head of population the amount the US spent to rescue itself from its worst banking crisis since the Great Depression."

I enjoyed the ft article, thanks.

Trying to get my head around what this means in the simplest possible terms - do these figures mean c. €20k a head of extra taxation to get the public finances back to something like normal?

I think that's about the figure I've seen, but it being a current issue there's about 50 conflicting estimates.

At least it's being talked about. I think we think we'll get out of it with a couple of percent on VAT and civil servants taking shorter lunches.

just had a quick read of the 6.25bn savings osborne announced this am, and i think the next budget's due pretty tough so it's not like it's being ignored. it's probably that you're not as exposed as we are to every single facet of the crash- property, financial services and global investment are pretty much all we have, and we acted like it was all we'd ever need.

And indeed, anyone who suggested otherwise was told to shut up and stop talking down the economy.

pull on the green shirt

I posted a bit from this above, but this, imo, is a great analysis of the biggest choice left to the govt- to continue to accept the banks's debt as sovereign Irish debt (essentially what the Guarantee of late 08 has done) or to rescind that guarantee. If you have the time, etc, etc:

Gloomy reading, but with real options considered

Govt commits further €2bn to Anglo
Monday, 31 May 2010 16:30
The Government has committed another €2bn in funding to Anglo Irish Bank.

The move comes as Anglo's restructuring plan is being submitted to the European Commission today.

A statement from the Department of Finance said the bank needed new funds because of the losses it had taken on the loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency and because of further losses on its remaining loans.

Can someone explain to me how this works? We take risky property loans off them at a discount, and then pay them back the difference a month later?

does anyone have a sub for the irish times online?

cos u can like webmail me?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0610/breaking70.html

Labour polling 32%, FF down to 17% .......

Unbelievable.

If only I could believe it'd last- up til last week FF were gaining ground again.

I've not been following this week at all, surprised that they managed to get the no confidence motion put off til Tuesday. It'll be comfortably defeated, and Cowen will be lauded again for turning around a 'crisis'.

I don't know - the smell of death off Cowen was seeping through the telly last night on Prime Time.

Cowen has to go at some point - his backbenchers don't want to lose their seats at the next election, so they'll get rid of him.

It's about time Labour started to consider just going it alone without either of these fucking packs of jokers, tbh.

Yes, because Labour will certainly be able to win a Dáil majority at the next election.

had a few exited convs. about this in the last couple days

xp-

Will FF?

Will FG?

i dunno, no matter what ppl say, the go ahead and vote FF

u kno urself

So pissed off at FG right now. Gilmore would want to be renegotiating the terms of any agreement, because Kenny is a poor alternative Taoiseach.

xp yeah, there's a big element of truth there, but FF core vote can't be more than 20%, and FG are doing absolutely nothing to convince the other 80% that they're any better.

Dont think i could deal w/ listening to enda kenny anyway

Srsly. A sound man, an awful sound man, but ........

I wonder will he go back to the teaching.

Richard Bruton sacked s FG Deputy leader.

"Asked if he believed Richard Bruton would be the next Fine Gael leader, Green Party leader Gormley said: 'I would have my doubts. The timing of this is a bit strange, frankly.

'They seem to be jumping to the media agenda - which is always a dangerous thing to do. And I would expect Enda Kenny to continue as leader, because he has come out fighting, as I expected he would.'

Asked about the timing of the front bench meeting tomorrow, Mr Gormley added: 'I don't understand this from a political tactic point of view.

'It seems to be quite stupid frankly. But that's a matter for the Fine Gael party and I don't want to intrude into their... It's up to them to choose whoever their leader is.

'But as I've said, Mr Kenny has come out fighting and I would expect he would continue as leader.'"

John Gormley OTM

OK

Bruton has been paid a large amount of cash by FF backers to do this, right?

Nothing else makes any fucking sense.

xp-

Will FF?

Will FG?

No. My point was that if Labour want to be in Government they will have to go in with either FF or FG. If they don't want to be in Government then they don't need a coalition partner, though one would have to ask why they are bothering to contest elections.

If Labour actually does come first in seats and/or votes next time, it does change the dynamic a bit. Instead of Labour propping up some other party, the other party gets to prop up Labour. In that situation they might even get away with coalescing with the otherwise toxic FF.

Not sure I'd take Gormley's advice on political tactics tbh.

But still, I had no idea this was going to happen. At this point, I think the best outcome for FG is that Bruton takes over and manages to bring the party with him. What is most likely to happen is that the front bench supports Kenny out of loyalty, FG lose their most able spokesman and the papers go mad with the "what's the point of Fine Gael" trope they're so fond of.

If Labour actually does come first in seats and/or votes next time, it does change the dynamic a bit. Instead of Labour propping up some other party, the other party gets to prop up Labour.

Well, yes- that's the strategy they should be pursuing, is what I was getting at. Stated in my usual muddled manner, of course.

Bruton is great, their most able spokesman, all of that, but this is a move so pointless from him that it would really make me question his judgement on just about everything else.

Kenny has the party. He's not going to lose this vote, and it won't even be close- in fact, had a challenge come from someone less vital to the party's immediate future, it would have been a nice little reinforcer for Enda, a shit-or-get-off-the-pot moment. But coming from Bruton it will not only be more divisive, it'll of necessity come at the extra cost of their most dynamic front bench presence.

I still don't see how Bruton has weighed this up as being a move of any benefit to himself.

Pretty much agree there.

Irish Times has a rather pro-Bruton editorial: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0615/1224272513279.html

Yeah, that's the colours nailed to the mast there alright. Harry McGee's piece today is a good one from a more detached POV I think.

Leo Varadkar is an odious little shit, apropos of nothing.

does anyone have a sub for the irish times online?

― plax (ico), 31 May 2010 17:24 (2 weeks ago) Bookmark

I didn't see this, sry

I don't, but i've never been asked for one, tbh, if it's just articles you're looking for.

i dunno, no matter what ppl say, the go ahead and vote FF

― plax (ico), 14 June 2010 10:27 (Yesterday) Bookmark

and yeah there's no way FF won't poll half again of 17% in an election.

that is probably true - they got way more than their polling level in last-year's locals, for instance.

Quite a meeting of the FG front bench this morning, by all accounts.

Jesus, busy day.

Croke Park deal goes through. Fuckem.

Bloody Sunday, Cameron and all that.

FG Fiasco continues. Varadkar still a little shit- if that's the future of FG, may the whole lot of em just drop off the face of the earth, tbh.

And in the background, Cowen stays.

The margins involved in all three of the vote/numbers issues have kinda ruined my day.

Aw Enda, Enda what the fuck? You clown.

"Limerick TD Kieran O’Donnell, who Mr Kenny named as Mr Bruton’s replacement as finance spokesman, today declared support for the challenger. Mr O’Donnell said he told Mr Kenny of his intentions this morning. “I feel that Richard Bruton is the most viable option to lead the party.”"

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

If you wrote that in an RTE sitcom it'd be rejected as dumb satire of the lowest order, I mean really though.

Meanwhile the Cóir people are still warning FF that if they do not stop nourishing sodomy they will be in big trouble.

Well FG did a fair bit of fucking from behind the weekend past themselves.

On another note, Anglo Irish are trying to sneak in under the radar with the news that the 22bn sunk into them so far will not be recovered. Letting the fuckers hang, is, of course, simply not an option. Not sure why.

Meanwhile the Cóir people are still warning FF that if they do not stop nourishing sodomy they will be in big trouble.

― The New Dirty Vicar, Wednesday, June 16, 2010 2:57 PM (3 hours ago)

where can i sign up w/ these guys srsly

nourishing sodomy- great band name imo

Enda in

enda keepin his enemies closer

Not much he can do, really. Most able spokesman on finance in the times that's in it.

Also, all the waffle about unity and no rift, can't see that Inda has much choice .

Things are gonna get hairy later on this year, according to those criticising the unilateral bank guarantee- dozens of billions of those debts mature before october, with not much prospect of the bond markets taking on much of it.

ie- add it to the national/govt debt, another (maybe) 58 bn.

jumpin this sinking ship

my serious advice 2u- do so. once my gf has her master's finished next year, i can't see us staying (and i'm in the council ffs)

oh i mean the only thing that would hold me back is turning into some diaspora type but i mean, i can get over that

I'm not sure that the current generation of economic exiles will have that habit- it was all well and good giving it the aul ochone ochone for caitlin ni suilebhán when it was the dirty brits that meant we had to leave. given that this time it will have been our own political classes and, to an extent, the property-mad middle/upper middle class over 40 that led to the trouble, there's not really the impetus for a ringfenced eireannach mentality to form.

also, the fact that instead of sending money home to build a country from scratch, we'll be moving to avoid paying massive taxes to cover the gambling debts of privileged fucks- tbh i'd not be be expecting too many emigrants under 35 to celebrate the cod-irishness in the same way that eg builders in london in the 60's did.

wondering how kerrygold can use this

kerrygold irish bitter

remember sally o'brien and the way she used to look at ya, the teasing bitch. like the banks, she never put out either

returning home to an electric blanket yr old ma had switched on for you, cut to subsequent punishment beatings administered to the poor dear by the viper when she can't pay the bill.

"im sorry but you have already eaten all the kerrygold"

"maybe you should have gone easy on it a little"

"also we cannot cover you for conditions related to cholesterol buildup under the new halthcare regime"

AAARGH STFU STFU STFU

eh, i think that is part of this larger trend of only expressing facts in opposites, so the more articles you read like that the more u kno we are doomed.

Cowen is going ahead with 3bn cuts to the public sector, cuts that cannot be avoided.

We're throwing 22bn away into a bank guarantee that is only necessary in order to protect the investing classes.

Employment will take 10 years to return to height levels, if it ever does.

Growth will be export-led and is due to our increased competitiveness.

To translate-

You will get fewer and poorer public services. You don't have a job. If you have a job, you will get paid less and have less power in negotiations with your employers. Your employers will be making all the money. The wealthy will have been protected from the worst of it.

This is Fianna Fáil's idea of 'things are looking up'.

Cowen is going ahead with 3bn cuts to the public sector, cuts that cannot be avoided.

This re-affirmed, btw, at the black tie IBEC conference at the Mansion House, last night- equivalent, roughly, to calling the big bad wolf into the parlour over tea to explain to him how you're scaling back security plans at the three little pigs' residences.

The IMF also said Nama should dispose of property assets it has acquired in an orderly manner to reduce the overhang of property in State hands and said these sales could kick-start the stalled property market.

The organisation praised the Government for its measures to stabilise the banking sector and cut spending.

“Through assertive steps to deal with the most potent sources of vulnerability, Irish policymakers have gained significant credibility,” it said.

“These actions have reassured the global policy community and international financial markets. Over the past months, Irish sovereign bond spreads have tended to rise significantly on the days of intensely adverse international market sentiment but otherwise Ireland has been accorded the space to pursue its planned policy trajectory.”

Go fuck yourselves, IMF

this is all terribly sad

it's effing disgraceful

It's official- Ireland is 'technically' out of recession.

Presumably this is why the most pressing matter left for our legislators is dog-breeding. A matter that has caused more consternation amongst govt back-benchers than any of the financial or political scandals of the past ten years.

Say no to puppy farms!

I do, I do. Now can I please have my economy back?

I think there should be a NAMA for puppy farms.

We've already been sold enough pups, don't you think?

I honestly don't know where to put this. Actually printed in the Irish Times today, they must be on a wind-up

Madam, – There have been some doubts shed on Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion polls recently as to their accuracy and freedom from bias.

This is of particular importance in relation to democratic poll-taking on the Catholic Church, which is by its nature an authority of God. This does not seem to affect The Irish Times, which appears to be an organ of revolution, destruction and the chaos which would come about by the disintegration of the Catholic Church’s authoritarian state. The enemies of the Catholic Church do not favour spilling blood because the devil knows that the food of the church is the blood of martyrs. But they will go a long way in an undermining role if they can.

The trouble with Irish Timespolls are that they are taken from “Catholics”. That means that those giving their democratic judgment do not accept the full story, and are in effect “Catholics” by birth register only, and are quite happy to see the Catholic Church sink into oblivion via all sorts of distortions and half-truths, along with their spiritual allies in the Masonic lodges. In fact, a number of “Catholics” are sworn Masons and live thereby in chronic mortal sin.

So when The Irish Timestakes the next opinion poll on the failures of the hierarchy (actual, perceived, and spurious), let it carry out a parallel opinion poll which will be the litmus test of these “democratic Catholics”. Ask each one if they are Catholics; (if not, it’s none of their business); then ask them do they accept the Catholic Church’s teaching on Humanae Vitae, the ban on the use of contraception. If they do not, then eliminate them from the result as apostates who hate the church anyway. Do not rely on those coming out of a church, as there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.

This should narrow things down a bit and eliminate the worst aspects of diabolical democracy. – Yours, etc,

there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.
there are a number of “Catholics” who go to Mass, deceiving themselves.

you can certainly read that a number of ways.

The enemies of the Catholic Church do not favour spilling blood because the devil knows that the food of the church is the blood of martyrs

^ got this far before i was really taken aback

didn't the irish times used to be seen as a church of ireland paper? see w/o being entirely clued-in to this stuff, i'd guess that's a 4 real religious lunatic

another possible shibboleth might be 'the disintegration of the Catholic Church’s authoritarian state' but most of it seems unironic and sentimentally consistent fundie catholic shit

No, that is a for-real, you-don't-see-these-guys-printed-that-often, frothing at the mouth raving madman.

IT was always the Protestant, Middle/Upper Middle paper AFAIK, but really these days its just the only decent paper in the country

Spoken like a Mason

Can I be both a Mason and a wannabe Tory? Or is that actually mandatory? Sometimes my grasp of these things isn't what I'd wish tbh

tory and wannabe mason is how it works iirc

Which is the one with the funny handshakes, bent cops and cutting the tongues off snitches thing? I always mix them up.

hrc&a church iirc

T get back to this- is it maybe not a good thing that shit like that gets printed? i don't think i've ever read something like that in the IT before, it seems an undesirable kind of development when the editor of a reputable paper is basically trolling her own letter readers.

I'd considered a flann o'brien vein shit-stirrer, but really i'm not sure that's the tone i'm getting

I would expect the editor of even a local evening paper to give pause before printing that kind of thing, yes.

It's pretty difficult to follow, for a start.

there's an argument that giving this delusional shite coverage further undermines the catholic church, after all amidst the luridness, this -

The trouble with Irish Timespolls are that they are taken from “Catholics”. That means that those giving their democratic judgment do not accept the full story, and are in effect “Catholics” by birth register only, and are quite happy to see the Catholic Church sink into oblivion via all sorts of distortions and half-truths

is a common ratzinger trope, religosity is only confirmed by utter adherence to doctrine

imo it's pretty lucid, considering the probability that the author was dictating it while chained to a wall and being whiped by the home-help

common ratzinger religious trope

yeah exactly, it's a common feature in qutbism etc too

The main tenet of Qutbist ideology is that the Muslim community (or the Muslim community outside of a vanguard fighting to reestablish it) "has been extinct for a few centuries" [3] having reverted to Godless ignorance (Jahiliyya), and must be reconquered for Islam.

Qutb outlined his ideas in his book Ma'alim fi-l-Tariq (aka Milestones). Other important principles of Qutbism include:[citation needed]

* Adherence to Sharia as sacred law accessible to humans, without which Islam cannot exist
* Adherence to Sharia as a complete way of life that will bring not only justice, but complete freedom from servitude, peace, personal serenity, scientific discovery and other benefits
* Avoidance of Western and non-Islamic "evil and corruption," including socialism and nationalism
* Vigilance against Western and Jewish conspiracies against Islam
* A two-pronged attack of 1) preaching to convert and 2) jihad to forcibly eliminate the "structures" of Jahiliyya

Jahiliyya's a pretty sweet deal imo

there's an argument that giving this delusional shite coverage further undermines the catholic church, after all amidst the luridness, this -

The trouble with Irish Timespolls are that they are taken from “Catholics”. That means that those giving their democratic judgment do not accept the full story, and are in effect “Catholics” by birth register only, and are quite happy to see the Catholic Church sink into oblivion via all sorts of distortions and half-truths

is a common ratzinger trope, religosity is only confirmed by utter adherence to doctrine

Anyway, the real thrust of what he's getting at, imo, is that those that aren't "real" catholics don't get to have a say on the issues being polled.

issues, as far as my guess goes, including

who d'you want educating your kids, then?
should child abuse be really, properly considered illegal and a prosecutable offence if a bishop has decided otherwise?
(not unrelated to either of the above) church interference and influence- what's all that about then?

i say i have issues about cranks getting letters published, but tbh it's not exactly stopped me continuously wumming rafa benitez defenders on football365 or anything so maybe there's a balance we should all look for in our daily lives etc.

tbf to yr crazy man, maybe he'd be more at ease w/ declared nonbelievers than so called 'catholics' who eat steak on friday or have qualms about the systemic cover-up of child rape etc etc

no, what he's saying is that nobody that doesn't meet his standards of catholicism should have a say in church affairs, church affairs to legitimately cover such areas as education, healthcare, crime and just about everything else.

suppose i shd bow to yr superior wisdom here

Catholic Church’s authoritarian state = everything?

when The Irish Timestakes the next opinion poll on the failures of the hierarchy (actual, perceived, and spurious), let it carry out a parallel opinion poll which will be the litmus test of these “democratic Catholics”

just seems very clear to me, tbh.

these polls do cover the likes of the issues above, so he's making a pretty direct reference to the powers he doesn't expect the 'hierarchy' of the church to be questioned on by unqualified catholics.

i wouldn't expect his type to hold non-practicing catholics/atheists in any greater regard, tbph

xp

the Catholic Church, which is by its nature an authority of God.

i'm not sure he's coming across as the type to put limits on the authority of God in re: state matters

tbh i imagine he's delighted that anyone has devoted more than half a second to his anguished ravings

and i'd imagine that a lot more will be proportionately dismayed that he got the platform

TAXPAYERS ARE facing the possibility of losing several hundred million euro through the State’s toxic property loans agency, the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).

The Government originally said the agency would deliver a €4.8 billion profit to the exchequer.

Only about 20 per cent of the loans are generating any income, that is repayments or interest payments, and the rest are currently producing no returns at all. Nama originally expected that 40 per cent would be income-producing.

No news of any borrowers being prosecuted as yet, as was promised 'within 30 days' under this scenario.

But it definitely wasn't a bailout, let's be clear on this.

LAND values have fallen by up to 75 per cent and in some provincial towns they are down by up to 90 per cent compared to the peak in 2006, according to a review of the development land sector by Savills

.....

Taxpayers are facing the possibility of losing several hundred million euro through the State’s toxic property loans agency, the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).

The Government originally said the agency would deliver a €4.8 billion profit to the exchequer.

Only about 20 per cent of the loans are generating any income, that is repayments or interest payments, and the rest are currently producing no returns at all. Nama originally expected that 40 per cent would be income-producing.

......

Opposition parties have objected to a Government proposal that the Dáil should take a three-month holidays.

The Dáil is due to rise today, and it will not sit again until the September 29.

This year's Dáil holidays are a full 12 weeks, longer than in previous years.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/opposition-parties-object-to-three-month-dail-holiday-464678.html#ixzz0tfZKo1NQ

.......

Ireland's fiscal consolidation plan through to 2014 is "appropriately ambitious" but the adjustment needed may be larger than the authorities envisage, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today

this country is about to get awesome

Credit agency Moody's has downgraded Ireland's government bond ratings to Aa2, blaming banking liabilities, weak growth prospects and a substantial increase in the debt to GDP ratio.

However, Moody's lead analyst for Ireland Dietmar Hornung said it was a "gradual, significant deterioration, but not a sudden, dramatic shift", and the agency believed Ireland has "turned the corner".

The general government debt-to-GDP ratio was at 64 per cent at the end of last year, up from 25 per cent before the financial crisis took hold, and is continuing to rise.

“Today’s downgrade is primarily driven by the Irish government’s gradual but significant loss of financial strength, as reflected by its deteriorating debt affordability,” said Mr Hornung.

:)

We've turned the corner!

(I'm just c&p'ing stuff now as a record of the deterioration, at least until the govt can't pay the leccy bill anymore- when i suddenly stop posting you'll know what happened)

I want you to look at these sombitches right here

"lack of gratitude" eh?

Here's something we have reason not to be grateful for

The posited costs of Anglo-Irish Bailout keep rising

Fintan O'Toole, in the Irish Times again. I don't necessarily always agree with his solutions (in this case he reckons Anglo-Irish should be left to the ECB, for instance), but he rights with the right kind of anger, incredulity and searching in the right areas to make his articles on the banks/givt/property required reading since day 1 imo.

The intro to today's article is p good.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0907/1224278367177.html

he 'writes' with the right kind of anger

skip vicky pollard analogy, that's uncharacteristically cheap tbh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pifibs_q7ec

lol

cant watch at work but lol anyway

bookmark it! it's amazing...

oh it's on my to-do when i get home.

emmmmmmmm

did you watch it?

i couldn't sit through all of his presentation, not gonna lie to you (is he creepy or is it just me?) but i got about 5 mins in total of the intro.

the dancing, oh boy. lol.

GET READY

(europe are gonna demand tax regime harmonisation in return for allowing us to fuck ourselves for decades with the debts of private banks- this is about to get real)

he is massively creepy. the way he dances is funny, i'd never thought of how one would want to dance on someone's grave in order to fully disrespect them before. personally i think i'd favour a more sexual and outrageous dance to truly show my disdain for the ceremonial resting place.

yeah, you either want rave or contempt to come out. not..... lust for children.

i don't suppose anyone is inclined to reproduce this FT piece that scurrilously broke ranks with international congratulations on our handling of this mess?

MINISTER FOR Science Conor Lenihan will not now launch a book in Dublin which describes evolution as a fantasy and a hoax, after the author asked him to withdraw in the wake of controversy on the web.

The Minister was to launch The Origin of Specious Nonsense by John May at Buswells hotel tomorrow, with actors playing the parts of Charles Darwin and King Kong.

MINISTER FOR SCIENCE MINISTER FOR SCIENCE MINISTER FOR FUCKING SCIENCE AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH FUCK THIS COUNTRY

Mind you he's still probably a better fit for his brief than most of the other cuntyfucks

The 7 bullet points from the author on this page are hurting my head. Is it opposites day?

I love it when rightwing/anti-scientists take the exact same arguments that they hear from their own opponents and just repeat them without any thought for "does this make sense any more?". Just throw in 5 extra words about God at the end and we're done, right?

About the Author:

He describes himself on the website www.theoriginofspeciousnonsense.com as “like Abraham Lincoln, self-educated, and might be viewed as a polymath, left school young and commenced my real education”.

riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

On another trip, ODL getting fair stick for conducting a dodge interview with Mornign Ireland while hungover this AM. FF think-ins in Galway haven't lost their magic, obviously.

From the other end of your beautiful island, here is a cheery little piece in Ulster Scots* (or thereabouts) from a few months ago regarding the NI Culture Minister's keenness to put up some signs about geology only being a theory at the Giant's Causeway:
http://1690andallthat.blogspot.com/2010/06/giants-causeway.html

* a noble and very real linguistic heritage or a loyalist bid to get in on the money handed out by the EU for themmuns to print leaflets in Irish? well obviously it's not my place to have any opinion

I've always been of the opinion, not exactly researched, that it's a pure cod tbh. The first time I saw a guy (wearing a kilt and a flat cap iirc) speaking this on UTV one night I thought it was just another unfunny 'performance' comedian.

Money for Irish leaflets (and for EU translation in particular)- also a cod, so I'm not misunderstood or anything

don't get this cowen fuss, he sounds a bit slurred and half asleep but...who gives a fuck rly

hey, they got capone on tax evasion, iygwim

While Ireland’s unemployment rate was the sixth highest in the European Union last year, its population remains the second richest of the 27 member states, according to a new report.

think we'll just start printing and handing out a load of €2000 euro notes to fuck, sure won't we be FLYING THEN?

how about dis ting

At Milford District Court in Letterkenny on Monday Judge Séamus Hughes told Joseph McElwee (38) of Aughavennan, Rathmullan, Co Donegal, he was to do the four stations of the famous Mayo pilgrimage as a mark of respect for his fellow Irish people, especially those in the line of duty.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0917/1224279094345.html

can't they let him climb a mountain that doesn't have any religious nonsense associated with it

judge seamus hughes.

worked for the family for a few days once

he's a westport man himself, he's doin his bit for local tourism imo

judges make crap domestic staff ime, all airs and graces and won't play dumb

Garda Nicholas Freyne told the court that while they were on duty in Rathmullan, they saw a large crowd gathered outside a public house and three individuals approached them.

The court heard that the defendant called Garda Freyne a “Mayo w****r” and said “f*** off home to Mayo” continuing his abuse for 10 minutes according to the garda’s evidence.

not sure i disapprove of this kind of creative 'back at ya' sentencing tho tbh

oh right i see what you did there

the bould seamus was state solicitor for the north west region the past few years before his ascension, and he comes from a very nicely established family (portwest heirs, if anyone would recognise the name from outdoor wear). i don't think he ever had to do his own housework, let alone anyone else's.

what sort of negative associations wd someone in donegal have for mayo ppl? cuz that's the most ridiculous 'fuck off back to ____' shit i've ever seen

i'd imagine it was no more than 'oh look, it is a member of the local constabulary, let us mock him about something'

because there are no negative associations between west shannoners, except that city galwegians are a bit arty and city limerickmen are genuinely all fucking remorseless killers

cool.

i never got any sense of stupid resentments between rural irish ppl. i was once on a train w/ kids from sittingbourne and (iirc) gillingham getting into some stupid argument like that and despaired for them. cunts.

it all completely depends.

interfamily disputes are forgotten in neighbour disputes are forgotten in intervillage disputes but christ help us you wouldn't sit by if a fellow st vincents man was fightin with fellas from another parish and yr grandfather couldnt rest in his grave if he knew you'd let someone from the mainland run down the island and sure west mayo before the rest of them and when you get down to it isn't roscommon more dublin than it is connaught but begod you'd always take the side of a roscommon man ahead of anyone from leinster.

it's detailed, but not exactly complicated. my grandfather took knives fightin his way out of a pub in scotland back to back with a fella that he routinely knocked out at marts

disappointed i haven't gotten a rise from galway or limerick heads tbh

i don't think any of my ppl got into goings on like that back in the day

i don't think it was granda mac's style either, the point being that if someone from askill deserved a beating (and it's widely acceptable, judging by this individual's progeny with whom i had the privilege of attending their pre-prison state education, that he probably did) he'd damn well get it at home from fellas that had been waiting this long time for the opportunity, and not overseas from strangers.

my ppl were bourgie drunks and wasters on one side and ira on the other (long time ago)

a lot of nuns too

ah, the drunks and wasters on our side were/are all poor fuckers.

i'll ask the aul fella where we stood with the IRA, i'd imagine there was that in it too alright.

yeah the poor fuckers were the kids of said drunks

a lot of grimness

oh well sure we all have that.

we didn't stay out west because of the weather or anything

Just in the interests of balance, the shower waiting to take over aren't really any different

That's a little light on detail tbh. Career of a young bangarda threatened in front of the leader of the opposition, yadda yadda.

leaked in response to cowen's embarrassing episode last week of course.

breathalysers at the door of the parliament buildings, maybe?

Economy contracts by 1.2% in Q2

Taoiseach Brian Cowen conceded today the latest figures were “disappointing”, particularly after the better than expected results in the previous quarter.

Speaking at the National Ploughing Championships in Co Kildare, Mr Cowen said the focus must be on export-driven growth.

what odds a labour taoiseach?

― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac)

they made their first move this week imo.

Cowen reckons Anglo might be 35bn, might be more, sure y'know it's all only figures really lads.

we've achieved 'closure' on anglo irish. by announcing that the fucking thing will cost 29bn.

cunts

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0930/breaking4.html">=http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0930/breaking4.html

29 BILLION 29 BILLION 29 BILLION

i have got to get out of this fucking country, this is insanity

kind of love miriam o'callaghan. asking our minister for finance straight, simple, aggressive questions about bank guarantees and why the irish state/taxpayer is paying 50bn to cover the private bonds issued to private bondholders by private banks.

i know it's more complicated, but at the same time fuckem, we need to see this guy justify his fairytales, nobody ever pushes him on this.

Even when he's arguing for me losing my job, essentially, there's very few I'd have as much faith in as Garret Fitzgerald. Very good piece if anyone' still interested, barely am myself tbh.

THE WHOLE affair of the banks has been a huge distraction from the more fundamental issue of the restoration of our economy to health. A once-off bank bailout of €45-50 billion is, by definition, a lesser problem than a €22 billion annual budget deficit. But this reality has effectively been missed by most people. Now we are finally facing up to this.

Before looking at the deficit problem it is necessary to address the issue of whether more could be done by the Government to revive the economy by “creating” employment, as the unions demand. Some major countries have attempted to do this – although what success they have had is not yet clear.

In our case there are two difficulties about such an approach. First, we are one of the most open economies in the world. We import three-quarters of what we need – such imports represent less than one-third of output in the UK, France and Italy – and a mere one-sixth in the case of the US. In our case the leakage from any stimulus measure would be several times greater than in those other countries. Their economies rather than ours would be the main beneficiaries of an Irish stimulus measure, no matter how finely it was targeted. And we can’t afford to help save the world just now!

Second, our financial shortfall is much more severe than that of the countries that have tried to stimulate growth. This year our revenue is falling short of our expenditure by no less than 38 per cent. So, we have far less leeway for stimulatory measures.

Taken together, these harsh facts suggest we may be one of the worst cases for such action – perhaps the very worst – in the entire developed world.

focus rightly across the pond today, but Vincent Browne of all people gives some food for thought today

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1020/1224281544198.html

yah i read about this last night. shocked 2 b shocked ugh

the 11 bn, sortof out of the loop etc

Could have an election now and over with and a new govt in place before we have to go back to the markets to raise money (3-4 months iirc). Political mandate and stability somewhat assured, at least, which should, theoretically, help us when the time comes to go begging again.

That FG & Lab aren't doing more to push an election means they either don't have the appetite to do the hard work, or don't trust the electorate not to blame them for the damage they'll have to do to clean up.

Don't blame them on the second point, to be honest.

This might cheer up some exiles:

http://img.rasset.ie/0003dcc2-440.jpg

Many Harney attacked with paint while opening a Health Centre in Cherry Orchard.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1102/1224282482641.html

so Irish friends, what do you all think about this? I've been reading Fintan's stuff a lot lately and like, while I can defo see how Nama was the subject of serious reservations at the time, isn't some of the vindictiveness about what the gov did during the Celtic Tiger years a bit due to hindsight? like i'm not defending the politicians (and yeah, they should take a paycut), just I lived in Ireland during those years and I don't remember any national debate about how we were setting ourselves up for disaster or whatever. There were a lot of vague rumblings but it was never something discussed at length to my mind.

anyone remember what o'toole was saying back then? cos i don't recall him talking economics much at all at that time. i know mcwilliams predicted a lot of what has happened but nobody actually predicted it with any urgency, did they? like surely if you really knew this was on the cards, if you really knew "we are going to be FUCKED" and you had any influence whatsoever you would make it clear that was what you thought?

feel free to school me here btw...I'm out of Ireland so I don't have anything like the full background here, I'm just trying to gauge how the totally blasé attitude of the boom years tallies with the anger at what was done during those years...

fair points.

There's a ucd professor, flipped if i can remember his name, maybe morgan? He's been doom mongerin for a while, and catigated pretty hravily for it.

I'm not really a 'blame the media' type tbh, but frankly anyone who didnt think it would last decade and then finish softly ith us all cherry millionaires was always portrayed as a crank. There wss never a far-seeing debate, any negative reporting/issues were almost exclusively short term in nature. The issues of long-term economic policy never arose.

You also have to remember just how dismissively anyone talking the economy down was treated by bertie/ff, and the press happily followed suit.

There's always joe higgins!

txtin from my phone btw

You also have to remember just how dismissively anyone talking the economy down was treated by bertie/ff, and the press happily followed suit.

and the people wanted bertie etc to be right, for everyone to be loaded forever. i guess what i'm getting at is, did our govt do things other govts wouldn't have? like were they outstandingly incompetent?

also i mean hasn't o'toole like released two books on this now? not saying he's trying to earn money but like, only a nominal amount of praise deserved for lambasting the govt when the entire country is lambasting them.

yes, though tbh incompetent does them both too much and too little credit. I would say they were very aware of how long they could milk it, and how to futureproof themselves from blame/consequences.

Prof morgan kelly btw- certainly called bank guarantee and nama pretty well.

Michael mcdowell's brother ?moore? Has always been a serious and authoritative voice on long term matters when i hear him, tho it's fair to say i dont always agree with him.

Another thought- bertie ws astonishingly good at getting 'buyin' from all areas- eradicating the usual conflicts btwn unions/employers for instance, bought short term peace economically, but left us with weak & lazy unions who were basically establishment themselves. When everyone was getting payrises, sure who was going to kick up a fuss for regulation, competitiveness, etc?

yes otoole is a bandwagon jumper, not a prophet, but he writes with good clarity and the right amount of anger imo. Better late than never.

i guess what i'm getting at is, did our govt do things other govts wouldn't have? like were they outstandingly incompetent?

A lot of people said in the years since the dotcom bust that the public finances had become worryingly dependent on transaction taxes related to property and on taxes relating to the construction sector generally. These people said that if there was any fall off in construction or a correction in the property market then the public finances would be in serious trouble. The Government seesm to have ignored these people. Is this what you would consider incompetent?

'these people' would have been known as 'experts who are not direct beneficiaries' in other countries, imo.

one thins that we haven't fixed or even begun to address is the ease with which the issues, and i mean the really big issues, become clogged or clouded in public debate. tribunals, the dáil, police investigations, there's never any clear outcomes, nobody in ever in a position to give a straight answer, it's always oddering aul mary tanaiste left holding the boring even herself with 'he's not in today, sorry' or 'i don't have that information to hand'.

i don't even work in the model of diligence and efficiency that is the irish private sector, but my first performance at a meeting that mirrored the typical govt minister's showing to the dáil would see me up to my neck in shite. but there's never any issue around this.

i feel that bertie made this a prevalent mode of avoidance, but that may only be because i didn't directly experience haughey nor his forebears in action. too subtle a tactic for charlie, perhaps.

fintan o'toole very good on last word, although good ideas on how things should be run if we could start from scratch is maybe the equivalent of marking helen keller in the hurling final.

free

fucking

cheese

quick meechawl, point me twards rosslare and i'll be off sure

wtf is this

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/irish-to-get-free-christmas-cheese-2126721.html

that's ~12g per capita afaict

what will u do with that?

treat it with cáis-ion i reckon

6bn fiscal adjustment next year, and they claim they wont be hitting public sector wages. they will, of course, but not til they get the budget through safely. re-negotiation of croke park agreement before march i think. not a bad thing, from a non-personal perspective. but without tax increases across the board, prob will cause havoc with unions/IR disruption.

Budget won't get through. I'd nearly put my house - negative equity and all - on it.

double or quits kinda thing?

ff are too well versed in the arcane art of the political promissory note to not get this one through.

if lenihan were a well man, i'd anticipate a speculative failure followed by a heave, but they'll put all their eggs in cowen's basket until forced to stop. martin vs lenihan in new year, maybe after public strikes hit.

Maybe..

Given that the only thing that maintains order in FF is the ability of the party badge to get the wo/man whose natural station is Town Councillor elected to the Dail, the fact that it is now a liability means the likelihood of said chancer discovering a conscience - read 'pretext' - and voting against cuts in Welfare/ pensions/ upping college fees in order to give themselves a head start in the battle for the one possible FF seat in a constituency where they could normally depend on two, seems to me to be approaching 100%.

oh yeah, self-interest will kick in at some stage, but really the individuals in FF are so unlikely to get in at any level in coming elections means that, for now, better to hold on to diminishing power together and try to bluff with 'hard choices for the country' line- maybe there's truth in that line, but given the track record of most of these ppl it's coincidental rather than conscience.

could be biased here given my local ff tds- calleary (idiot, party man) flynn (corrupt, party woman (even when not in the party))

flynn as a local td...jesus. i'm not even sure who the ones where i grew up are now since gv wright drove his car into a person

he drove his own car? small time motherfucker imo

Speaking at the launch of the “Reinventing Government” document in the Morrison Hotel, Dublin, Mr Kenny and enterprise spokesman Richard Bruton said fundamental change was needed to ensure State services are protected and the economy is put back on track.

“The public sector has a key role to play in rebuilding Ireland. We believe that the vast majority of public servants do an absolutely vital job and recognise that many public servants feel they are being unfairly targeted as a result of a crisis they did not create," Mr Kenny said.

Among the actions that Fine Gael is pledging is the abolition of more than 145 State bodies and companies including the dismantling of the HSE and Fás and their replacement with more cost effective alternatives; the saving of €5 billion through tackling waste, duplication and inefficiency

gobshite man speak with forked tongue imo

Just in case any of you were still clinging to a few tattered shreds of hope:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html?via=mr

Kelly was right about the property crash when all around were predicting 'soft landings' - I fear that this unwaveringly grim prognosis may be similarly accurate.

God that article is enough to make you want to cry. Is there a mass exodus yet?

People are leaving certainly, and recent immigrants are returning home in some numbers, but the safety valve really isn't there to the extent it was in the '80s. Where can you go?

A lot of people have moved over here (London), but I think it's stopped a bit as far as my experience is worth anything. There seemed to be a big spike of people moving a year or so ago, but now maybe whoever is still in Dublin that I know is staying.

There are jobs in somewhere like London, for definite, but I'd hate to be just out of college or something, unthinkable.