What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019

Time for a 2019 thread. Will see what kind of year it will be in Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere.

MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

Last year's thread

More sizable than the number of Iranian fighters, however, is the contingent of foreign fighters Iran is training and equipping in Syria. In addition to Hezbollah and Syrian forces loyal to Assad, Tehran is backing Shi’a militias comprised of Afghan and Pakistani fighters. Tabatabai says estimates for the number of Afghans killed in Syria runs into the tens of thousands.

http://time.com/5513411/israel-iran-secret-war-syria/

holy shit it's on

Netanyahu to stand trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, pending hearing

AG’s decision is legal bombshell ahead of April 9 elections, marks first time in Israel’s history that serving PM is told he faces criminal charges; premier to speak at 8 p.m.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-to-stand-trial-for-bribery-and-breach-of-trust-pending-hearing/

whoa

what a gift for benny gantz

i'd like to read this new matti friedman book

sounds v interesting

Looks like the mass protests paid off in Algeria. Bouteflika aka 'the frame' just announced that he won't be running again. Good riddance, although ridding the country of his clique of regents won't be easy.

BREAKING: Explosions heard in Tel Aviv minutes after sirens

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 14, 2019

Haaretz:Two launches from northern Gaza, no casualties or damage.

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/letter-tehran-tense-climate-iran

Protests against Hamas in Gaza, apparently there's a big effort to crack down on any reporting or filming and there's not been all that much coverage, but there's this in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/world/middleeast/gaza-protests-hamas.html

And some footage in this twitter thread

Thread. I’d like to talk about Gaza, where the people have been rising up against Hamas – and been brutally suppressed, including with live fire. Hamas has been suppressing the media and nobody has been talking about it. pic.twitter.com/LyQzjhkUfm

— Jake Wallis Simons (@JakeWSimons) March 23, 2019

bloody hopeless situation for the people in gaza

It's either the Israeli blockade/snipers, or Hamas, or the seawater and polluted runoff that's displacing their aquifer water supply. Egypt and Jordan don't care much, except insofar as Palestinian hardship can be used in regime propaganda, even Fatah in the West bank is happier to be rid of them. Sooner or later there's going to be a cholera or other infectious outbreak that cuts down the crowding significantly, and everyone will just point fingers.

Terrible

would listen to this podcast

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/27/rescued-migrants-hijack-merchant-ship-off-libya

State of this old fossil. Still, he's gone now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/02/algeria-latest-news-president-abdelaziz-bouteflika-resigns

things are looking good for bibi on election day with opposition worried that low-turnout augurs poorly for their chances.

exit polls showing historically low turnout for arab voters which will help bibi too

just look at all the success arab voters have had in the past in changing Israeli policy through the ballot box

Exit poll says Gantz 39 seats, Bibi 35. (one needs to collect 61 seats to form a coalition, but this is bad news for Likud if true)

times of israel:

Channel 13’s exit poll has Blue and White and Likud tied with 36 seats each.

The right-wing bloc leads, with 66 seats, making Netanyahu better positioned to form a government, compared to 54 seats for the center-left.

wait + see - exit polls are not reliable, lots of conflicting ones atm

Netanyahu's still going to be Prime Minister though, right?

probably -- even if gantz gets more seats bibi has an easier road towards making a coalition but we'll see

lots of ppl now saying likud is gonna win most seats bibi pm again

if true, this does not say good things about Israeli politics.

Bit much to expect Israel to buck the worldwide trend for far right racist nationalism.

especially because they were so far ahead of the curve in that respect

Oh dear, the Israeli labor party are looking completely knackered.

xp otm, was thinking of the Ben Judah article “Bibi was Right” when I read your comment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/09/symbolism-behind-viral-photo-protesting-woman-sudan/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6967ea275d28&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

Sudan protests against Bashir

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-pr-firm-behind-likud-s-hidden-cameras-in-arab-poll-sites-boasts-of-lowering-turnout-1.7108972

Bashir steps down in Sudan after years in power. “Transitional” military council running the country for next 2 years. There have been 4 months of protest. Bashir could face charges in the Hague for actions taken in Darfur if he leaves the country .

Although this is not the first time Mr. Trump has praised an Arab strongman, his expression of support for Mr. Hifter appears to be the first time that Mr. Trump has embraced an aspiring authoritarian who is not yet in power and may never get there.

A former general under Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and also a former C.I.A. client, Mr. Hifter had been living in exile in the United States but returned to Libya during the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. He first declared his intention to seize power in 2014, when Libya’s nascent transitional government was struggling to establish its authority over freewheeling militias around the country —from NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/world/middleeast/trump-libya-khalifa-haftar.html

Something about this HIfter fellow Trump really lkes, also

Muffolini
Pol Pof
Idi Amif
Josel Stafin

haha yes, I was going to say it was probably just a typo by Trump

would like "Moffe growing vpon the skull of a man" but 77

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/04/saudi-arabia-37-put-to-death-in-shocking-execution-spree/

among those executed is Abdulkareem al-Hawaj – a young Shi’a man who was arrested at the age of 16 and convicted of offences related to his involvement in anti-government protests. Under international law, the use of the death penalty against people who were under the age of 18 at the time of the crime is strictly prohibited.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2019/04/23/saudi-arabia-beheadings-executions-mujtaba-al-sweikat/3552679002/

A Saudi Arabian man who was arrested as a teenager as he was getting ready to fly to America to begin his studies at Western Michigan University was beheaded by the government Tuesday, according to a report from an official press agency.

Mujtaba al-Sweikat was 17 when he was detained at King Fahd International Airport in 2012. Earlier that year, Al-Sweikat allegedly attended a pro-democracy rally in the midst of the Arab Spring, which led to his arrest. He was intending to visit Western Michigan, where he had been accepted as a student, the university confirmed to the Free Press in 2017.

jesus christ

Kingdom of nightmares.

Are we really not gonna talk about the massive political clusterfuck unfolding in Israel right now? Not at all clear Netanyahu can form a government and he's (quite possibly successfully) inducing the Knesset to dissolve itself 6 weeks after it was elected in order to keep anyone but Bibi from having a chance to form a coalition. Meanwhile, Likud is merging with Kulanu against its own constitutional rules. And this may all end with Netanyahu caving to his chief adversaries in the farther-right-than-Netanyahu wing.

Or is Bibi just using the threat of dissolution to get Liberman to cave to the ultra-Orthodox and in the end there'll be a last-minute coalition deal? Who in this mess wants a new election?

Meanwhile, Sara Netanyahu pled guilty to corruption charges today and will reimburse the government $15,000. With three hours to go Netanhayu is still stuck one short of a majority. Reports are that he reached out to his bitter enemies in Labor and was rejected. I don't really understand what the deal is with the dissolution of the Knesset, when the deadline for that is. Netanyahu could still easily walk out of this with something he can call a win, as he so often does.

if the knesset is dissolved there's another election

3 options are: bibi is able to form government, bibi is able to pass bill to dissolve knesset and new election happens, bibi doesn't form government and knesset isn't dissolved, president rivlin will ask another member of the knesset to try and form a government

I guess what I'm wondering is does Rivlin immediately ask another MK to form a government two hours from now, or does the Knesset still have time to dissolve even if Netanyahu misses his deadline?

Latest report is that Knesset will vote on dissolution in about an hour and a half so I guess the answer is, Knesset has to break up now if it's going to keep a non-Bibi from getting a shot.

short thread

What’s about to go down in the Knesset is the wildest political moment I can recall. I’m 95% confident that the Knesset will vote to dissolve, but there’s still a small chance of an international Likud coup to oust Netanyahu 1/

— (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) May 29, 2019

nm that small chance apparently they did vote to dissolve but could've been hilarious

september election seems a bit of a long run up time

I’m still surprised how little attention this seems to be getting. This is quite likely the end of Bibi and could very well be the end of Likud’s dominance, couldn’t it?

I don't know, I'll believe in the end of Bibi when I see it. It's like Berlusconi, he's never gone. Just one thing after the other, trying to shield himself from the law, dragging everyone further and further into the mud. Frankly, it's boring.

Fred OTM.

I don’t think it’s getting more attention partially because the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim) doesn’t fit neatly into the West’s interests in the conflict (even if ultimately ousting Bibi would have an impact in that area as well one could imagine).

I don't think it's at all clear this is the end of Bibi or the end of Likud dominance. I don't see what other political bloc has the ability to govern. With a new election, some parties may clear the threshold who didn't before, some may fall below who made it before, and the calculus of seats will likely be slightly different; and Netanyahu only fell one vote short of a governing coalition, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice. On the other hand, what "makes sense" means is "makes sense for someone whose only goal is to remain in power, no matter how much chaos and expense it causes the country," or, more charitably, "makes sense for someone whose ego is so overwhelming that he thinks the country is helpless without his strong hand, which thus has to remain on the steering wheel by any means necessary."

Lots of things could happen. The next election could return a Knesset where Netanyahu could put together a weak government dependent on favors to small parties to his right. Or there could be a Likud revolt followed by a unity government with a non-Netanyahu Likud PM and Gantz joining. (Gantz has already said Blue and White is open to participating in a coalition with post-Netanyahu Likud.) Or I guess if Blue and White improves their standing thanks to nationwide Netanyahu fatigue (which I do think is real to some extent) I guess there could be a Gantz-led government (which I emphasize would not really be on the left though it would include the left-wing parties.)

the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim)

One thing I don't get is whether this is the real reason -- I mean, it's the proximate reason, but there's also some chatter that people really are tired of Netanyahu's constant attempts to make the state his fiefdom and that even on the right he is no longer seen as indispensable; what do you think?

I think it's a combination of two things. One - in order to secure the majority Bibi had to cannibalize other smaller right-wing groups which made his coalition extremely tenuous and gave outsized power to individual members like Lieberman. Two - Lieberman used that outsized power to demand the end to charedi military exemptions and refused to budge. If Bibi had more working room or Lieberman hadn't put his foot down then Bibi would have another government in place right now. I do think it's possible Likud could've made a coalition with someone other than Bibi in charge but I think these other two issues are much more critical.

I think Bennett + Shaked will almost certainly make it into the government this time around.

Isn't that what Theresa May tried to do, form a coalition government with far right Irish religious extremists or something? Worked out well for her.

No, she just bribed a bunch of trolls, chancers and right wing evangelicals in Northern Ireland with a cool billion quid to vote with her government - true to fashion, they took the money and voted against her anyway.

Not that I should need to school Americans on these people as their forebears and their descendants are responsible for so much of the shittiest aspects of US history.

Poor Sudan. They get rid of their dictator but now the military is killing the peaceful protesters

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/04/sudan-halt-attacks-protesters

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48517768

I'm torn on the tank ship attacks. On the one hand, I think Iran is smart enough to do it, and it is pretty smart. On the other, while it would be stupid for Saudi Arabia to do it, they clearly are that stupid.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/japanese-oil-tanker-owner-says-us-is-wrong-about-gulf-attack

it's pretty crazy who the us had such a definitive answer in like 24 hrs .

how*

morsi's death after years in solitary confinement not receiving anywhere near adequate medical care will not be looked on kindly by historians

a lot of ppl in the sudanese diaspora arranging protests, raising attention and trying to put international pressure on the transitional military council at what cld be a critical time. with the state controlling all of the media and lots of ppl in rural sudan relying heavily on the radio and an underfunded & vulnerable opposition movement, there seems to be a lot of pessimism and uncertainty over the plans for elections and concerns they'll end up with someone like sisi backed by the arab league and china, who are talking a lot about stability, and russia, who are also raising very legitimate concerns abt extremists

Forget your Danish film critic's armchair speculations this is really good on the tanker episode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/donald-trump-reckless-iran-policy-casts-doubt-us-global-leader

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/jamal-khashoggi-killing-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-evidence-un-report

Huge if true: Turkey ruling party set to lose Istanbul election

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48739256

There was no way for them to win without fixing it and no way of fixing it without making it obvious so it was seen locally by a lot of people as a huge indicator of whether AKP would go fully down the route of squashing democracy when it doesn’t suit them. The question is whether they’ll try to invalidate the results but idk if that is likely to happen twice.

The latter is obviously very much a question mark still. Even so, obvious fixing hasn't stopped the AKP before, so it is still somewhat surprising imo.

interview w/ matti friedman (who i like a lot tho i still need to read his latest book) on a topic that was v close to my mind when i started the first MENA thread - how israel is easier to understand in the context of the middle east than in the context of europe

https://www.timesofisrael.com/nobody-hijacked-israel-its-just-not-what-its-pioneers-thought-theyd-created/

relatedly (sorta) is how surprised i am whenever i see naive leftists suggesting that mizrahim might be partners w/ palestinians in challenging the israeli elite ashkenazi status quo - as if they don't realize that mizrahim are far more right-wing and "middle eastern" than ashkenazim and that utopian + peace focused politicians have always come from that so-called elite.

he links to this article from 2015 that is related (but more about mizrachi music) and might also be interesting to ilxors/ilmers:
https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/music/193162/israels-happiness-revolution

interesting piece, he could spell out a bit more explicitly what values and opinions h"Middle-eastern-ness" is supposed to represent

Is Catch-67 worth getting? Anybody checked it out yet?

Seeing lots of quoted favorable reviews of Catch-67- The Left, the Right, and the Legacy of the Six Dy War by Micah Goodman, but I haven't read it and don't know anyone who has

Wonder if its a response to Guy Laron's book, which makes the case for a months long premediation for a war of aggression.

ot sanpaku but have u seen this?

Political ideology predicts moral foundations, rather than the reverse, in panel data, suggesting that moral intuitions are not the root of political differences#SocSciResearchhttps://t.co/Ef5u72ybkV pic.twitter.com/lnIE1AtUp2

— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) July 30, 2019

Mordy, I'm still interested, but to me moral principles are orthogonal to more deeper seated psychology like the disgust response. This paper argues ideology -> morality. I'd argue the emotional brain -> either, which accords better with what we understand about individual psychology. Decisions are unconscious, the linguistic brain serves to rationalize them.

I get that endless war v Taliban hasn’t been successful so maybe peace treaty with Taliban if it can be reached will be better, but I still worry about Afghan women and others subject to fundamentalist Taliban who are still attacking weddings and such

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/taliban-attacks-afghan-city-talks-wrap-190901051603411.html

The original casus belli for war in Afghanistan was to eliminate a safe haven for al Qaida. In the context of that war, liberating the women of Afghanistan was a peripheral strategy at most, aimed more at creating positive support among the US and NATO allies than anything else. In many ways, it strengthened the Taliban resistance to the government we helped to install and prop up. Abandoning the war was always going to mean abandoning the women of Afghanistan to their fate, because it was never about them. They were pawns. Which is sad, but war is a nearly useless instrument to create a more liberal society.

war created a more liberal society after WW II in Germany and Japan and Italy; and sorta in South Korea after Korean war there, but yeah not too much success otherwise.

Meanwhile in Iraq and Syria:

Five months after American-backed forces ousted the Islamic State from its last shard of territory in Syria, the terrorist group is gathering new strength, conducting guerrilla attacks across Iraq and Syria, retooling its financial networks and targeting new recruits at an allied-run tent camp, American and Iraqi military and intelligence officers said.

Though President Trump hailed a total defeat of the Islamic State this year, defense officials in the region see things differently, acknowledging that what remains of the terrorist group is here to stay...

....the terrorist group has still mobilized as many as 18,000 remaining fighters in Iraq and Syria. These sleeper cells and strike teams have carried out sniper attacks, ambushes, kidnappings and assassinations against security forces and community leaders...

... ISIS uses extortion to finance clandestine operations: Farmers in northern Iraq who refuse to pay have had their crops burned to the ground.

Over the past several months, ISIS has made inroads into a sprawling tent camp in northeast Syria, and there is no ready plan to deal with the 70,000 people there, including thousands of family members of ISIS fighters. American intelligence officials say the Al Hol camp, managed by Syrian Kurdish allies with little aid or security, is evolving into a hotbed of ISIS ideology and a huge breeding ground for future terrorists. The American-backed Syrian Kurdish force also holds more than 10,000 ISIS fighters, including 2,000 foreigners, in separate makeshift prisons....Defense officials in the region say the Islamic State is now entrenched in mostly rural territory, fighting in small elements of roughly a dozen fighters and taking advantage of the porous border between Iraq and Syria, along with the informal border between Iraqi Kurdistan and the rest of the country, where security forces are spread thin and responsibilities for public safety are sometimes disputed....

A particularly brutal episode of the kind not seen since the Islamic State was in control of territory in northern Iraq occurred in early August when armed men claiming ISIS allegiance held a public beheading of a policeman in a rural village south of the city of Samarra in Salahuddin Province, about two hours north of Baghdad.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/19/us/politics/isis-iraq-syria.html

x-post-- I mean war helped create , along with all the subsequent peace-related stuff establishing rule of law again, helping the economy etc.

Eh, it took a while in Korea ;) Like, forty years or so.

Nobody really condemns the invasion of Afghanistan, because sheltering Osama bin Laden while he planned 9/11 was a really really really bad idea, but the way that war just got... ignored... until it just became the usual stalemate / quagmire, is one of those just stupid things the US has done. No, war is bad for bringing democracy, but imagine all the money wasted on the Iraq war had been spent on a Marshall plan for Afghanistan.

It didn't get ignored. Hundreds of billions spent, and thousands of lives (incl 43 Danes) lost. Tens of billions on development, perhaps more per capita than any other spot on the planet (incl during the Marshall Plan), though overwhelmingly spent on Western contractors rather than indigenous engineers/labor.

The problem seems to be that the 1) cultural issues of the "graveyard of empires" will take many decades to resolve; 2) from 2001, the US and NATO backed warlords and some of the most corrupt in Afghan society; 3) progress won't happen so long as Pakistan's ISI has more interest leveraging fundamentalism to play geopolitical games than supporting peace; and 4) Western democracies now lack the ideological conviction that made the endless sacrifices of colonialism possible (for better or worse).

Neither military force or money would be sufficient for these problems. Cultivating non-corrupt indigenous pro-development strongmen, getting Pakistan and other regional powers to sign on, and committing to the project for 40+ years (and accepting a constant dribble of losses) were prerequisites. Western democracies just haven't been very good at "nation building" since the early 20th century, and Afghanistan lacked the sort of political center of gravity that nationalist strongmen like Chiang Ching-kuo (Taiwan), Park Chung-hee (S Korea), or Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore) provided.

Western democracies just haven't been very good at "nation building" since the early 20th century

This 'since' in this sentence might turn it into the wrongest historical statement of all time

My wife has been working in Afghanistan specifically to empower the women over there - made some good friends - so I’m really hoping we don’t walk away without some path forward for them

Lots of newly independent nations in the 50s and 60s only could become "nations" thanks to transport/communications infrastructure and governmental frameworks left by colonial powers. Not saying colonialism was moral or justified, just that the colonial inheritance made states larger than small provinces governable. The historical anomaly becomes just how ineffectual externally driven state building exercises have been in the post-colonial era.

the colonial inheritance made states larger than small provinces governable.

If, by "governable" you indicate only that a central government can largely extend its effective monopoly of force within its own borders, then I agree. But almost every sizeable ex-colonial "nation" has no organically developed national identity and has many large groups of "citizens" who are disaffected, disenfranchised and held down though brutal military and police power. Such "governance" is really not much different from or better than the Taliban.

it feels like you're overlooking the way the national boundaries were deliberately structured to cross/disrupt tribal boundaries and enhance existing divisions. kind of made the whole exercise a moot point.

granted, that was more pronounced in Africa, but this is the MENA thread

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/03/middleeast/yemen-war-crimes-un-panel-intl/index.html

UN panel says UK, France, US & Iran may be complicit in war crimes in Yemen

every sizeable ex-colonial "nation" has no organically developed national identity and has many large groups of "citizens" who are disaffected, disenfranchised and held down

Pretty much the experience of Western Europe, for 2 to 6 centuries prior to national unification. We shouldn't be surprised if humans in the developing world behave much like humans in developing Europe. Nations require a lot of suppression of competing feudal and tribal interests.

XP sleeve: Personally, I wouldn't have managed independence as the Europeans did. I would have defined the smallest feasible voting districts with respect to natural geographic borders, called for elections to transition governments, and then partition based on the electoral results, so each ethnic/religious/political minority that had any local majorities would have its own state. The Balkan model. There would be a natural Fulani nation stretching from Mali to Sudan. The Pakistan/India border would be a mess, but so were the demographics.

This is totally relevant to the current situation in MENA, particularly in Iraq, Syria and Palestine. The post-colonial nations don't reflect underlying demographics, and they've suffered as a result.

Above, I'm just saying the success of post-colonial states in independence has had a lot to do with how well colonial nations provided infrastructure and transfered models of governance. I don't think its a coincidence that some of the modern nations with the poorest outcomes had the misfortune of being ruled by competing European powers in succession, or by fascist Italy.

Pretty much the experience of Western Europe, for 2 to 6 centuries prior to national unification.

True up to a point, but in Europe national entities evolved and amalgamated purely based upon local European interests, through shifting alliances, local conquests, assimilation and integration, or violent rejection and expulsion. It was an organic, self-generating process. Europe did this to itself.

The ex-colonial nations had their present borders imposed purely by external western interests and those western interests still exert pressure upon them to maintain those borders and to conform their policies to western needs and desires. Thus, we are heavily implicated in the brutality and violent repressions exercised there.

This is extraordinary even by the US’ standards:

Having failed at piracy, the US resorts to outright blackmail—deliver us Iran’s oil and receive several million dollars or be sanctioned yourself.

Sounds very similar to the Oval Office invitation I received a few weeks back.

It is becoming a pattern.#BTeamGangsters pic.twitter.com/B1oQTLghWZ

— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) September 4, 2019

Having failed in the attempt to get the EU to apply sanctions they’re not party to wrt Iranian oil tankers, captains are apparently being offered bribes to pilot ships into jurisdictions that will.

^ Those tactics would only be justified between nations actively at war. Basically, they are acts of war.

70% of Iranian oil goes to China, Japan, India, S.Korea, and Turkey. I wonder which nation(s) on the Hormuz/S. China route are so beholden to US/Saudi Arabia they'd play along. Maybe Indonesia?

Worth keeping an eye on Abqaiq, largest oil processing plant in the world, responsible for 6.8 Mbpd of production, and attacked in 2008 by Al Qaeda.

Multiple fires (now under control), reports of gunfire. If I wanted to undermine the Saudi state (from within or without), this facility would be my target.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP3OTW9K-y0

Houthi drone use is interesting. Low tech having decent enough results.

Worrying prospects obviously in many respects, while SA deserve everything sent at them imo

BBC

The Houthi spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.

He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".

Houthi collaborating with the Sh'ia of Qatif. Driving cargo trucks with Qasef-1 (or better) drones to within 150 km (and probably a lot less) of Abqaiq.

Saudi Arabia is going to finish demolishing Al-Awamiyah with artillery. And if you thought it was a police state before...

I'll be keeping my tanks topped off.

Who didn't think Saudi Arabia was a police state?

He is not implying that anyone didn't think that.

No streetview on Buqaiq/Abqaiq, but the video appears to come from the rooftop of the Hardee's on the west side of King Abdulaziz Rd from the compound. It's remarkable looking at satelite maps how easy it would be to target the critical elements like the ones around 25°55'54.8 N 49°40'43.3 E.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack-drones/u-s-drone-strike-kills-30-pine-nut-farm-workers-in-afghanistan-idUSKBN1W40NW?

business as usual

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

Erdogan has vowed to create a buffer zone inside Syria by pushing back Kurdish militants and settling Syrian refugees in the country’s north. Turkey suspects that the U.S. is backing Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria and is prepared to use military force to prevent what it perceives as an attempt to redraw the region’s map.

oops

The old Kurdish proverb comes to mind again: 'No friends but the mountains'. This time it's Trump's turn to fuck up the Kurds once again. Never mind they did the dirty work in defeating IS. This is giving nothing less than giving complete carte blanche to one of the worst dictators around, Erdogan, to kill thousands of Kurds. Appalling.

:(

I don't know what to say, it's just tragic.

Tragic but predictable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Towers_Istanbul

This must play a factor sadly

disgusting

nothing to worry about folks bigly brain is on it

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2019

man FUUUUUUCK this guy

Yeah, that. Already dreaded the fucking monstrous Trump tweets popping up (not blaming you Carne tbh). It's a license to kill people and family and friends of mine and of people I know. Sick to the stomach.

When you lose heaven’s mandated...

Pat Robertson is "appalled" by Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria: "The President of the United States is in great danger of losing the mandate of Heaven if he permits this to happen." pic.twitter.com/YGeNYpbGrF

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) October 7, 2019

these absolute fucking hobgoblins

It is hard to imagine the kind of will and toughness that keeps the Kurds intact in the face of so many enemies and so many betrayals. Or the kind of psychological damage it does to maintain that will and toughness.

I recognize that this is one of the few areas where there's a positive to troop prescence but this is surely something that should happen under the UN not the US (illegal anyway, not that that means anything)

I know, the UN is dead and long buried.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/07/just-hours-after-trump-bends-erdogan-reports-indicate-turkeys-bombing-kurdish-forces

Turkish troops launch offensive into northern Syria

surprised this is the only place where discussion is taking place, although, like many people, i'm not sure what to say.

has Assad given any sort of statement?

i don't think assad is too bothered about developments and it seems like erdogan has talked to putin about his plans etc. turkey allies with syrian national army opposition elements, which obviously isn't that chill for assad, but will also possibly push ypg into allying with the regime (they've nowhere else to turn).

Turkey is NATO, which obviously isn't that chill for putin. assad's spokesperson said Syria will defend its territorial integrity and demands the withdrawal of all foreign troops, which seems like a SOP kind of response for any nation.

erdogan and putin have a pretty good relationship and for a NATO country turkey is the most favorably oriented towards russia (even buying weapons from them).

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html

An SDF commander has confirmed to me that the Ain Issa camp has fallen and all the detainees (a population of thousands that includes ISIS supporters, ISIS relatives and civilians) have fled. “An unbelievable mess,” the commander said. Latest message: pic.twitter.com/yDehTSKkux

— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 13, 2019

Assad appears to have struck a deal to send Syrian Army troops to support the YPG/SDF against the FSA / Turkish-backed factions, with Russia providing air cover.

Self Administration of NE Syria announces an agreement with Syrian Government to protect Syrian borders with SDF against Turkey. It will also help liberating all areas from Turkey including Afrin pic.twitter.com/aatRDChDJN

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) October 13, 2019

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/kurdish-politician-among-9-civilians-killed-by-turkey-backed-rebels-monitor/

Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman willingly yoked themselves to this idiot, thinking they could pull him wherever they wanted.

It’s worked in part for them though

This is fucking terrible isn't it.

In a single phone call, Trump essentially forced SDF to switch sides, eventually permitting a contiguous Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Shi'a crescent, the prevention of which was a principal reason for US intervention in Rojava. They cannot be happy with this outcome in Jerusalem and Riyadh.

― Inherent Contempt (Sanpaku), Sunday, October 13, 2019 12:20 PM (two days ago)

there is a "shia crescent" with or without northeastern syria being controlled by sdf. look at a map

turkey invading syria is kind of a problem for iran because they are allied with assad but also enjoy pretty good relations with turkey and can't really afford to alienate them.

I thought Kurds were Sunnis? Can u explain the Shia crescent thing to me, I'm catching up slowly

Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq are all allied strongly with Iran and form a contiguous "Shia crescent". My point was that even without north east Syria being under Syrian control the countries are still contiguous.

US special operations forces were widely scattered in Eastern Syria. Most in Rojava, northeast of the Euphrates, to provide training, advice, and fight alongside (mostly calling in airstrikes) with the SDF. Under this arrangement, the SDF blocked transport from Iraq along the highways on each bank of the Euphrates.

Another US SOF contingent was embedded with Arab Syrian rebels at An Tanf, 300 km from Kurdish Rojava, strategically blocking the Baghdad-Damascus highway.

Between the two, the US could fairly effectively block much land transport between Tehran and Damascus, with a rather small ground footprint. Remove the US from the equation, and the SDF complies with Assad's wishes, and the Syrian Hwy 2 is open for business.

they haven't withdrawn from at-tanf tho

and it's more an inconvenience to be navigated around than a roadblock

also the question is how long do you think the US should have kept occupying syria to marginally stymie road delivery of materiel?

If the strategic interest of the US is in buttressing the Saudi-UAE-Israel coalition in their proxy wars against the Iran-Syria coalition (and yes, I'm dubious about this objective), then a US presence in Syria and developing an autonomous Rojava provided leverage.

SDF is the most competent military force between Tehran and Damascus, and maybe between Tehran and Jerusalem. Ignoring morality, betraying them is bad geopolitics, and markedly reduces US influence in the region now and in the forseeable future.

fair enough.

i think the most classically trumpian aspect is that the biggest upside that could come from turning your back on the kurds would be improving relations with turkey. instead he responds to them doing what they were obviously going to do with sanctions.

Do we think he's been influenced by Putin in this? Are the trump towers in Turkey signs of substantial investment there?

seemingly it stemmed directly from a phone call he had with erdogan on the 6th, but he had expected him not to "[do] anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits".

turkey is going to stop the offensive for 120 hours but will commence again if kurdish forces haven't withdrawn.

president deals does it again

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

meanwhile, can we put a fork in Bibi yet

https://www.yahoo.com/news/netanyahus-latest-call-unity-government-143751810.html

hmm did Erdogan also agree not to resettle Syrians in the territory and to let the Kurds back in

this is just an empty gesture, what does a ceasefire even mean 120 hrs from now, the damage is done

― The Ravishing of ROFL Stein (Hadrian VIII), Thursday, October 17, 2019 12:35 PM (fourteen minutes ago)

well it means advancing the advance which hasn't been completed yet. the sdf would likely have to strike a deal wit the saa again as they did with kobani and manbij tho as obviously turkey aren't exactly to be trusted

that advancing should halting

Bibi out

Gantz not hugely likely to be able to form a government either though?

yeah it's a mess, but I relish any diminishment of Bibi's power tbh

removing Bibi from the center of power limits the damage he can do. even if it's only temporary, that's still good.

prob good for israel to just not have functioning govt for a year

Anyone have a sense of how much personal animosity to Netanyahu is contributing to this impasse? Is Likud thinking of electing Yuli-Yoel Edelstein or Israel Katz as party leader?

to me (hardly an expert in israeli politics) the issue seems to be avigdor lieberman. if he supported bibi then the impasse would be finished - they could have formed a government in may even. they've been in government before, they don't have huge political differences that are readily apparent. but he's taken this "secularist" turn so he can't go into government with netanyahu, as that would mean going into government with the ultra-orthodox. this seems to be simply a wedge issue he's created because he knows that if he goes into government with netanyahu again he'll get some nice ministerial appointment as in the past but bibi will pull the strings. changing of the guard and king-making with gantz would perhaps open new vistas to him

(on the other hand the chance of lieberman wanting to go into a coalition with benny gantz which would include the arab parties - and vice versa, seems hard to imagine)

oh yeah also no one in likud looks like they want to dethrone netanyahu rn. he's too popular with the party's supporters it seems

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/world/middleeast/global-protests.html

Protests in Lebanon

i have no idea how this is measured, but this is interesting:

But as protest movements grow, their success rates are plunging. Only 20 years ago, 70 percent of protests demanding systemic political change achieved it — a figure that had been growing steadily since the 1950s, according to a study by Erica Chenoweth, a Harvard University political scientist.

In the mid-2000s, that trend reversed. Success rates now stand at 30 percent, the study said, a decline that Professor Chenoweth called staggering.

These two trends are closely linked. As protests become more frequent but likelier to flounder, they stretch on and on, becoming more contentious, more visible — and more apt to return to the streets when their demands go unmet. The result may be a world where popular uprisings lose their prominence, becoming simply part of the landscape.

Interesting and depressing.

In Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri survived recent embarrassing revelations about a $16 million gift to a bikini model whom he met at a luxury resort in the Seychelles in 2013, a move that, for some critics, epitomized Lebanon’s ruling class. Then last week he announced the tax on WhatsApp calls, setting off a revolt.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/27/us-reportedly-carries-out-operation-against-isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi

No word yet on exactly what has happened.

More info available now.

Meanwhile in Lebanon, Hezbollah supporters are not happy with protestors or even folks selling food near protest site. So they’re knocking everything down and chasing out protesters

https://apple.news/AENL-FDeFMcavqKHQUFL6UA

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/29/middleeast/lebanon-saad-hariri-resigns-intl/index.html

Lebanon Prime Minister resigns

"It's a good first step but we're still going to stay in the streets," Pierre Mouzannar, a 21-year old filmmaker told Al Jazeera in central Beirut. "Hariri is part of the problem but he's not all of the problem … I don't think anyone thinks we're done."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/lebanese-protesters-celebrate-hariri-resignation-191029203414584.html

The Trump administration has frozen all military aid to the Lebanese army, including a package worth $105 million that both the State Department and Congress approved in September, congressional officials said Friday.

The halt to American funding of the Lebanese Armed Forces, an important multisectarian group, comes at a critical time for Lebanon, as officials are grappling with the country’s largest street protests since its independence in 1943 and a change in leadership forced by the demonstrations. A freeze on the assistance could give Iran and Russia an opening to exert greater influence over the Lebanese military, analysts say, and perhaps even allow the Islamic State and Al Qaeda to gain greater footholds in the country.

That’s The NY Times take

Which is the globalist-imperialist perspective, straight, no chaser. Lebanon is seen as just a pawn of much bigger powers and what matters is how this might affect the players who really count.

It seems the protestors are angering everyone- Hezbollah isn't happy, Lebanese officials and army, & Iran, Russia, US supporters of status quo who just don't want Hezbollah to get stronger. Not sure what Trump's motive is in Lebanon and whether his broken clock approach will help or hinder the protestors

Lebanon is a deeply corrupt state, and my understanding is this outcome is perpetuated by the provisions of the Taif Agreement of 1989.

Taif essentially prevents successful popular parties that cut across sectarian lines, so the nation is locked into a set of sectarian fiefdoms, and individual voters are limited to (at best) selecting between leaders of the sect they were born into/assigned. Only a small minority residing in Beirut can vote for local leadership, most are assigned to vote at their place of birth.

Definitely a country that needs a constitutional assembly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/05/world/middleeast/russia-libya-mercenaries.html?module=inline

Russian Snipers, Missiles and Warplanes Try to Tilt Libyan War
Moscow is plunging deeper into a war of armed drones in a strategic hot spot rich with oil, teeming with migrants and riddled with militants.

The snipers are among about 200 Russian fighters who have arrived in Libya in the last six weeks, part of a broad campaign by the Kremlin to reassert its influence across the Middle East and Africa.

After four years of behind-the-scenes financial and tactical support for a would-be Libyan strongman, Russia is now pushing far more directly to shape the outcome of Libya’s messy civil war. It has introduced advanced Sukhoi jets, coordinated missile strikes, and precision-guided artillery, as well as the snipers — the same playbook that made Moscow a kingmaker in the Syrian civil war.

The Russians have intervened on behalf of the militia leader Khalifa Hifter, who is based in eastern Libya and is also backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and, at times, France. His backers have embraced him as their best hope to check the influence of political Islam, crack down on militants and restore an authoritarian order.

Mr. Hifter has been at war for more than five years with a coalition of militias from western Libya who back the authorities in Tripoli. The Tripoli government was set up by the United Nations in 2015 and is officially supported by the United States and other Western powers. But in practical terms, Turkey is its only patron.

The new intervention of private Russian mercenaries, who are closely tied to the Kremlin, is just one of the parallels with the Syrian civil war.

The conflict has become a bipolar combination of the primitive and futuristic. Turkey and the Emirates have turned Libya into the first war fought primarily by clashing fleets of armed drones. The United Nations estimates that during the past six months, the two sides have conducted more than 900 drone missions.

But on the ground, the war is between militias with fewer than 400 fighters typically engaged on both sides at any time. The fighting happens almost exclusively in a handful of deserted districts on the southern outskirts of Tripoli, while in neighborhoods just a few miles away, streets are clogged with civilian traffic and espresso bars bustle amid heaps of uncollected garbage.

I was in New Delhi earlier this year at the same time MBS was there, and received a very light-touch in-person warning from Saudi intelligence within an hour for saying something rude about them on my anonymous Twitter account https://t.co/hvJJsWqWY2

— 🦃🦃 gracious goat 🦃🦃 (@marxatfarpoint) November 6, 2019

State intelligence and security forces are the premium upgrade from mere high-powered multi-national PR firms.

Talking of state intelligence and security forces:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/11/europe/syria-white-helmets-backer-james-le-mesurier-intl/index.html

huge leak from iran in the intercept and NYT today - some of the links here. mostly about how they took power in iraq. i haven't read much of it yet but looks like a significant publication:

Good morning, here's our series of stories based on 700 pages of top secret documents from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence. This has never happened before: https://t.co/AiDfviY14I

— Murtaza Mohammad Hussain (@MazMHussain) November 18, 2019

The importance of these Iranian cables seems more to provide confirmation and details to what could be reasonable inferred from the power dynamics in the region and the visible 'hot' conflicts. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both pushing hard to accumulate and consolidate regional influence, through every means available to them and the situation is very fluid and constantly shifting.

yes it's a world of difference between vague inferences + real information as "through every means available to them and the situation is very fluid and constantly shifting" is practically meaningless in content whereas these 700 pages help fill in the gaps of what those means include and how they actually look

Iran is a land of contrasts

Just stunning work by the Bush administration. Spend a couple trillion dollars and kill a couple hundred thousand civilians so that Iraq can become a client state of Iran.

Experts on the Ian Masters news program were talking about this as early as 2002. Iraq is a majority Shi'a country, many of whose leaders had spent years in Iranian exile; and Iran a neighboring hedgemon that has taken the indirect/subterfuge approach to regional politics for centuries. Installing Ahmad Chalabi and other Western affiliated INC exiles to govern was always a fantasy that only neocons were indoctrinated enough to believe.

no gov't for Benny. Time for yet another election!

Not necessarily - indictment coming down tomorrow supposedly which could mean Likud minus Bibi aka potential gov as minor partner

indictment meaning Bibi would step aside? or would he have to be removed/challenged from within the party?

Either potentially I imagine depends on whether Bibi and Likud think he can beat it?

Bibi is getting all Trumpy like in his criticisms re attorney general he appointed. Bibi's status could get get ruled upon by Israel Supreme Court

so sick of this left wing anti semitism from uh Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit

"Channel 13 News reported that Hollywood producer Milchan, the central figure in Case 1000, told police that he attended a dinner at the Prime Minister's Residence in which Netanyahu's wife lashed at the Adelsons, telling them, 'You are spilling my blood, you are all spilling my blood.” Sheldon Adelson reportedly responded: "Calm down, we're doing the best we can. I lose 40 to 50 million dollars a year [on Israel Hayom]. … We regularly write in your favor and you keep shouting at me."

Another report from Channel 12 involving testimony from Case 2000 quoted Miriam Adelson as saying that Sara Netanyahu “once told me that if Iran gets nuclear weapons and Israel is wiped out, I’ll be to blame, because I’m not defending Bibi.”

Both the prime minister and his wife complained about their coverage with the Adelson newspaper’s former editor in chief, Amos Regev, both in person and in “screaming phone calls.”

Eventually, Miriam Adelson said, she and her husband got fed up and stopped visiting the Netanyahus."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-netanyahu-israel-indictment-cases-charges-1.8160019

Still think they should name the US Embassy after Adelson, who effectively paid for it with his own money

warming up to bibi and sara reading that anecdote

does any other asshole world leader have such an affectionate nickname that both his supporters and haters use?

refuse to call this piece of shit "Bibi"

my dad (a chilean exile from the pinochet dictatorship) and i sometimes jokingly refer to pinochet as "el tata" (grampa) so i don't mind calling netanyahu bibi

Dubya?

This thread is not getting used that much. Do we start a 2020 one, anyway?

We can discuss>

Netanyahu wants temporary immunity

Predicting how Iran will respond to the US action.

Complexity of knowing that Soleimani was responsible also for crushing Iranian and Syrian opponents of dictators in addition to Americans who never should have been in Iraq, but determining that if an outside force takes action against him without authority, that end result may still not help poor folks who were suffering in those countries, or help Western powers either

i think a new thread makes sense. it got over 200 posts and i definitely used it last year for things i'd otherwise be bumping this thread to post

Any new title ideas for thread? I see an older Iranian thread is getting use now

We're talking about sand and death

"We're talking about sand and death-- Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020 " works for me

"We're talking about sand and death"-- Middle East, North Africa (MENA) and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020

New thread started