2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

Symmetry required gabbneb to start this.

YAY! I was second again!

Well done, sir.

freakin' me out with yr. symmetry.

http://www.naderexplore08.org/

"fearful" symmetry, huh?

1,000 new answers by midnight

ok, healthcare:

hillary needs to require the mandate because, besides being a good populist-sounding talking point, it would give her greater bangaining strength with insurance companies and health care providers. it seems probable to me that these negotiations would be piloted by lobbies who would guarantee their clients' co-operation in exchange for de-regulation or tax-breaks for the insurance and / or health care industries.

am i on the right track so far? y/n? i just want to drill down on this issue because everyone takes for granted that universal health care would be a nearly prohibitive measure to actually enact.

-- elmo argonaut

Posting this over from the other thread, 'cuz it seems like a good point. Is it true? Does a universal health care plan really require 100% buy-in to generate the $$$ necessary to leverage a manageable price?

I can not take part in this historic thread.

this in re: to g00blar

It's fucking hard, and strange, and random, to run a presidential campaign--even with Bill's experience with nat'l campaigns, anyone that thought she would 'know how to do it' and therefore have it easy is pretty much an idiot.

never said it'd be easy, but the clinton campaign thus far made some pretty foolhardy assumptions regarding (1) their underestimation of obama's legitimacy as a threat to her nomination, (2) their inability to plan beyond super tuesday and subsequent frontloading of their expenditures (leading to the financial troubles in jan 08), (3) their lack of control over bill's role in the campaign, who's been an on-again, off-again advocate. they took a lot of shit for granted and it's been catching up with them up to this point.

Does anyone believe that having whatever skills it takes to win your party's nomination have much relation to the skills it takes to be a president?

building coalitions, selling yourself and your ideas, managing/leading a staff. this is debatable, obv, but i think there is some overlap between the two.

http://radio.weblogs.com/0107064/MyImages/noraodonnell.jpg

Obligatory Norah O'Donnell content.

okay, mark halperin has posted this image and "DEVELOPING":

http://markhalperin.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/bsmk.jpg

which is confusing the hell out of me.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/02/12/white-lights-lead-to-red-lights-which-indicate-the-exits/

I will be sad watching the old thread slip down the New Answers page, like I was when Leonardo DiCaprio slipped down under the cold waves at the end of Titanic.

Health care (deep breath):

While it's true that eliminating free riders should lower insurance premiums (since those free riders, presumably people with few health care costs, could absorb the high costs of others), it seems to me like that's premised on having a single-payer system where there's one big pool of risk, not a whole bunch of separate pools (e.g. separate insurance companies) that just happen to include everyone. Plus, as Obama points out with some cause I think, just because there's a mandate doesn't mean everyone will actually sign up, as the Massachusetts plan has shown, in which case you still have free riders, they just owe the government money.

What has to be kept in mind in all of this is that what we actually need is a single-payer system, but we're never going to actually get that, so any "universal" health care plan is necessarily a compromise. It's just a matter of what you're deciding to compromise on.

thread should have been called THE REAPENING

Those are people who interpret exit polls on teevee. He means that we are now awaiting... Wait for it... exit polls.

http://media.kansascity.com/smedia/2008/02/07/21/CORRECTION_People_Tyra_Banks_Mike_Huckabee.sff.standalone.prod_affiliate.81.jpg

to christen the new thread

i hereby christen this ship, the u.s.s. clownpants

wau

HRC on teh gays.

Huckabee: Able to see his dick since 2007!

In terms of costs, this is the image you want to keep in mind:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8565/Figure1-3.gif

That shows what's going to happen to Medicare/Medicaid costs as time goes on. If they continue growing at the same rate they have been (i.e. 2.5%), then they're going to take up 20% of GDP by 2050. ZOINKS.

Context here:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8565/Chapter1.5.1.shtml

i kinda feel slighted that the most prominent queer pundit out there right now is andrew sullivan.

Since 2008, Proud to be an official Dicklist member!

huckabee needs his own cable news show so we can watch him slowly fatten up again

M Bison, I agree with you abt Clinton's 'foolhardy assumptions'. I just don't think those mistakes have much to do with her 'managerial acuity' or whatever. Basically all the mistakes tell us is that she's not totally crushing Obama. Doesn't 'planning past Super Tuesday' just mean 'winning past Super Tuesday'? I don't know, I'm rambling, but I think most of the narratives about Hillary dropping the ball are much more something constructed by the press than anything really insightful. That said, I hope she's done.

i kinda feel slighted that the most prominent queer pundit out there right now is andrew sullivan.

Don't forget Morbs.

ban g00blar

In terms of negotiations, giving insurance companies tax breaks or deregulation would kidna defeat the purpose, unless I'm misunderstanding your point. They're going to be more regulated, if anything. The idea is to basically bring them in and say "everyone in the goddamn country agrees that you're screwing us over, so this is what's going to happen." The obstacle is more going to be hospitals and medical professionals, I suspect, who are all against it because it'll lower their salaries.

i mean, can i get a source on queer interests in politics without being subjected to this hack's 7,285 virulent anti-hillary posts?

xpost

haha, i didn't forget morbs but sadly he is not nearly as prominent a political commentator as he should be.

I just saw that Obama commercial linked on the other thread. It is massively dope.

i just heard james carvelle say "senator obama" but it sounded like "santo bama"

General posts to the obamahiphop forum
Are The Clintons Haters? Jan 14th @ 1:49 AM

James Carvelle could make "activist judges" sound like "santo bama".

hillary is def a hater

i just heard james carvelle say "senator obama" but it sounded like "santo bama"

LOL

lol >>> http://tinyurl.com/3ch8wj

thanking u

"His name rhymes with the word Iraq. His second name also does not need to comment, but Obama surname only one consonant differs from the embodiment of evil names (meaning Osama bin Laden. - "Newspaper. Ru") "- notes columnist The Daily Reveille.

Depraved, however, to wound that Obama - Half (his father - black, the mother - white). Therefore, there is no guarantee observers say that black voters will support him, not Hillary Clinton, wife of the ex-president, whose American "blacks" just adore.

Obamy

Can't wait until the weather is Obamy outside my office.

what about Aravosis? (AmericaBlog)

In terms of negotiations, giving insurance companies tax breaks or deregulation would kidna defeat the purpose, unless I'm misunderstanding your point. They're going to be more regulated, if anything. The idea is to basically bring them in and say "everyone in the goddamn country agrees that you're screwing us over, so this is what's going to happen."

I don't think that's the idea at all. That kind of draconian, oppositional, top-down imposition of a system would never fly in the free-market U.S., and I can't imagine either candidate trying it. Instead, I imagine that insurance co's and the gov't will work together to come up with agreeable rates and situational (symptom-based) response/cost plans. The companies involved will want certain guarantees and concessions, though expanded enrollment will be sizeable perk right off the bat. The more people the gov't can promise, the better their leverage - especially if the new heads aren't high-riskers who couldn't get insurance any other way.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080212/pl_afp/usvoteobamajapan

Murakami noted that Barack Obama's birthday, August 4, happens to be "Chopsticks Day" in the city.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20080212/capt.sge.iku58.120208071510.photo00.photo.default-421x512.jpg?x=283&y=345&sig=mNl7zDxUxGQkZ1r4fBkp_g--
<3

why tf is julian bond trying to get the dems to seat MI and FL???

http://www.mccainblogette.com/docs/postings/020708/20.jpg

shockingly, more Americans know of John Glenn's NASA career than his Senate career, which ended roughly co-terminously

well if thats not photoshop fodder

http://www.mccainblogette.com/docs/playlist/

Here is the third addition to our growing collection of Blogette Playlists. This list consists of songs by some artists who get me moving in the morning ("Scissor Sisters"), pick-me-up in the afternoon ("Clap Your Hands Say Yeah"), energize me for a night out on the town ("Goldfrapp") and help me fall asleep at night ("Jimi Hendrix"). I hope everyone enjoys these songs as much as I do.

P.S. "Seu Jorge" is a genius.

john glens eyes are the size of grains of rice

almost as good as romney's ad exec son being a fan of elliot lipp and cinematic orchestra

"His name rhymes with the word Iraq. His second name also does not need to comment, but Obama surname only one consonant differs from the embodiment of evil names (meaning Osama bin Laden. - "Newspaper. Ru") "- notes columnist The Daily Reveille.

This is the funniest thing I've read today. Link plz.

(Okay, that was before I saw the "Hanna Montana Fans Love McCain" poster. That is now the funniest thing I've seen today.)

lolol >>> http://tinyurl.com/3ch8wj

too bad hannah montana fans can't vote

almost as good as romney's ad exec son being a fan of elliot lipp and cinematic orchestra

almost as good as using indie-anything as any sort of litmus test

who's talking about litmus tests? i think its funny

Craig Romney's Friend Space
Craig Romney has 566 friends.

Trunkster

Peter Bjorn And John

The Cinematic Orchestra

M. Ward

Loney, Dear

of Montreal

The National

Jim Noir

Andrew Bird

Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings

Sigur Ros

Dntel

The Bees

ELIOT LIPP

"Seu Jorge"

<i>worth repeating

the whole clintons have baggage / she's polarizing / etc. issue may not be "fair," but it wasn't invented for election season. it's just a fact!</i>

I'm still amazed that so many democrats could be unconcerned with or unaware of this aspect of Clinton as a candidate.

It could also be really painful to have these 90s partisan media-narratives brought back and the culture war debated indirectly around her persona. I can't see ever voting for McCain but the Dems might deserve the lose the GE on principal if they choose to reignite the Clintons conflict with the "attack machine."

SUSA has Clinton up 17 in OH, her lead due entirely to women - http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/12/surveyusa_clinton_maintains_doubledigit_lead_in_ohio.html

*sigh*

how many of those women are voting for Hillary because of what she symbolizes, I wonder

Shakey Mo Kristol

I was making a joke about daria's complaints about Obama/symbolism on one of the other threads deej

(btw there are few people I loathe more than Kristol, who reminds me of the prototypical smug rich Jewish kid at the bar mitzvahs I attended as a child)

'prototypical'

YAH I HOPE HE JEW-DIES

This is Rush Limbaugh's way of standing down in his war of words against McCain?

were the Jews you knew all rich or only the ones who had bar mitzvahs? were they all smug or only the ones who were rich?

and what about the christians' bar mitzvahs?

aren't all jews rich?

i think only the smug ones?

some are rich some wear funny hats

aren't all jews rich?

Some of us are.

Define "rich."

I am Jewish. Some of my Hebrew school classmates were richer and more conservative and smugger and more assholish than others.

wow this has a lot to do with primaries guys

jewmaries

Some of my Hebrew school classmates were richer and more conservative and smugger and more assholish than others.

in a prototypical way

Are you saying discrimination against Jews isn't worthy of discussion?

hey bill kristol is a world class asshole tho we can all agree on that right guys !!!!

yr buddy speaks, andwhat - http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/02/12/ed-rendell-straight-talker.aspx

jesus christ you guys

jews don't know about jesus

unless they're jews FOR jesus

Oy vey. We already need a new thread to get back on track.

VA exits - Obama ties Hillary among whites, wins Seniors

http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/

guys lets go back to the old thread

Women voters: Obama 58, Cliton 42

Women voters: Obama 58, Cliton 42

so uh this is when people will be saying was the beginning of the end for hillary?

ahahahaha

she will hold out until Ohio and TX no matter what

yah but theres a good chance shes fukd right now

she is up 17 in oh

not for long

(in polls obv)

fun parlor game from ambinder:

To the Secret Service (technically to the WHCA), President Bush is Trailblazer, Laura Bush is Tempo, HRC is Evergreen, Bill Clinton is Eagle, Dick Cheney is Angler, and Barack Obama is Renegade.

John McCain respects the Service but has said he is wary of their presence. On the trail, he sometimes has security around him, and those tough veteran buddies and his big burly advance guys provide a nice circle of protection..

But the United States Secret Service has not yet been authorized by the Department of Homeland Security to provide him with a detail, according to a Secret Service spokesman.

Opening up a can of worms here, but when they do, what should his code name be?

grandpa

McBane

shakey

waht

grumpus

no. 6

McClane

hanoi

juan

^

skeletor

http://i29.tinypic.com/fthq9f.jpg

2:1?? that seems kinda unlikely

3:1? I'll believe it when I see it (somewhere else) xp

yah well the exit polls have been over-estimating obama the whole time but still...

obama walking down the street w/pizza and beers on tv

dr teeth

The Clinton campaign is releasing a radio advertisement aimed towards Hispanic voters in Texas that proclaims "Hillary is our friend,” and promotes the candidate's plan for universal health care.

"She respects our culture and understands the problems that affect our community," an announcer says in the thirty-second ad, which has been used to target Hispanics in previous primary contests. "Let's vote for Hillary…and we will have a better life."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/12/dems-look-to-texas/

subtle

http://infocusmagazine.org/6.2/images/bsoc_hispanics_in_america1.jpg
lets all vote hillary! aiyee!

hey so apparently next debate is here in austin

will try to go

which candidate will be the first to drop some spanish

the first to speak no doubt

and in so doing win my vote

lol i made cnn. jack cafferty just read my answer to his silly question about whether hillary can reign in bill for four years and keep him scandal-free. CLAY FROM PORTLAND WRITES...

whoa rugged

I better call my mom. she'll be so proud.

which candidate will be the first to drop some spanish

_________________________________

and in so doing win my vote

First candidate to sing Cheetah Girls' Fuego has my vote.

waht did u write: lol no of course not dont be silly?

Gearshift

something about "Considering he's already been in a few small-scale scandals since primary season began it seems unlikely that four years of intense scrutiny won't... lol bubba"

MSNBC CALL VIRGINA FOR OBAMA BASED ON EXIT POLLS! BIG WIN!

hmmm so is CNN - that means the exit poll margins must be ridiculous

lol hueg

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/fox-demexitpolls-big.jpg

she purdy

ouch

so this is coming down to texas and penn, right? I mean, does HRC even stand a chance winning that few states in the primaries? where is obama polling everywhere else?

He's projected to win Wisconsin and Hawaii handily - Hillary's banking on Ohio, TX, and Pennsylvania but assuming that she'll maintain her leads in those states with this much momentum and money behind Obama seems dubious. It will come down to how much of the party leadership thinks she MUST win over Obama because she presents a better chance in the GE - but I don't think they're going to draw that conclusion. They'd be foolish to step in front of Obama's speeding train at that point...

lol clinton spin: we knew we werent going to win - wtf is that supposed to even mean?

uncle mo

that post was kinda a mess - what I mean is if it comes down to the superdelegates granting a decisive majority, their going to have to have overridingly powerful institutional and electoral reasons to back Hillary over Obama, and at this point I don't think they do. The party is going to come to the realization that the Clinton's national political capital is spent, and that the better option for the party is to get behind the dynamic populist that has a better shot at beating McCain. Hillary is running out of arguments for why she should get the nomination (minor policy differences on healthcare and delusionally self-serving "I'm more experienced!" talking points aren't gonna cut it.)

x-post

I didn't even want your stupid primary!

Hassan Nemazee, another national finance chairman for Mrs. Clinton, said he was also telling his network of allies not to get caught up in the headlines about Obama

“I’m telling donors and supporters: Don’t be overly concerned about what goes on in the remainder of the month of February because these are not states teed up well for us,” Mr. Nemazee said.

superdelegates aside I think that if obama takes either texas or ohio then he's going to be so far ahead in pledged delegates that hillary is going to be out, or at least, it would make sense for her to bow out. but we'll see.

yeah Hillary's mounting excuses sound like she's dismissing the electorate ("oh those negros don't matter, neither does THAT state cuz we won't win it in the GE, by the way the only states that do matter are the ones where I'm polling ahead even though I may not win them, etc.") That shit is not gonna play well - no one wants to back a loser.

otoh I honestly can't conceive of Hillary bowing out gracefully. I predict some kind of scary meltdown/lashing out.

"Nothing to see here; those states aren't gonna vote for us, so they obviously do not matter, duh." xposts

I'm ashamed she won my state but proud Obama won my district

(and I have no doubt Obama would sweep CA in the GE)

McCain/Clinton '08

i'm passing up an opportunity to hear obama speak in 10 minutes. instead, i will take a nap. and then eat tacos.

You know you wanna

xp

i have no doubt obama would sweep CA if the election were this week rather than last

Tacos 1, Obama 0.

Clinton/Lieberman 08

Lieberman/Sharpton 12

tacos/obama 08

i'd prefer tacos to be on the other side of the ticket, but yeah.

oh man i want tacos

Hassan Nemazee, another national finance chairman for Mrs. Clinton HRC, said he was also telling his network of allies not to get caught up in the headlines about Obama

“I’m telling donors and supporters: Don’t be overly concerned about what goes on in the remainder of the month of February because these are not states teed up well for us,” Mr. Nemazee said

Um, let's try that again:

Hassan Nemazee, another national finance chairman for Mrs. Clinton Giuliani, said he was also telling his network of allies not to get caught up in the headlines about Obama

“I’m telling donors and supporters: Don’t be overly concerned about what goes on in the remainder of the month of February because these are not states teed up well for us,” Mr. Nemazee said

FOR PRESIDENT xxp

yeah gOOblar said that already

oh i see what you did

DC 4 OBAMA SUPRISE!

"tacos/obama 08"

Obama/Richardson 08!

i went into the booth tonight planning to vote tacos but I wound up picking the special, calabacitas con puerca, instead

an obama/tacos ticket could not possibly lose

this election will be decided by cilantro.

is america ready for a spicy president

cilantro is very controversial

obama > chimichangas > tacos

maybe

hillary is already in texas? seems desperate. is she gonna live there until the primary?

tacos> obama > cilantro> chimichangas

do you guys like tacos? I do!

TACOS FOR CHANGE

chimichangas are clearly the john edwards of this debate here

hey guys...TACOS ON A PLANE!

so if huckabee win virgina tonite mccain cant wrap up the nom until may 6th! i just heard this lol

"wrap up"

Yeah, cilantro has some pretty high negatives.

Isn't John Edward's window of opportunity to impact this race closing? If Obama edges closer to the nomination this month, he'll need Edwards' endorsement less-and-less, I'd assume. By contrast, HRC will be desperate for it up through Tx. and Ohio. So is Edwards waiting too long to endorse?

it tastes like soap to some due to genetic predisposition

Pozole showing strong numbers

paprika will have it's say it Texas.

More resignations in Hillaryland: The Washington Post reports that Mike Henry, Hillary's deputy campaign manager and a figure who was brought in by outgoing campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, has also resigned.

MSNBC calls VA for McCain.

oh boo

hrc = dun

is kind of too bad. take away the bill + marc-rich-pardoning sleaze and the fact that people really hate her for essentially no reason, i think she'd have been a good prez

just tell me when i can bust open this champaign cuz Obama finally topped Hilz delegates en total.

Don't count HRC out yet.

(Also see SurveyUSA on Ohio: Clinton 56%, Obama 39%.)

hillary has been ahead everywhere 3 weeks out

those numbers start shifting tomorrow

a lot has changed since that article was written 9 days ago. Obama's gonna continue to catch up in OH, who knows how much.
xp

I don't necessarily disagree. My only point: Don't count HRC out yet.

she's dead to me.

its too much fun to count her out

she's dead to me.

MSNBC BREAKING NEWS: WHITE MALES HATE HILLARY CLINTON.

MSNBC BREAKING NEWS: ANTI-WAR TYPES HATE HILLARY CLINTON.

Okay, okay. Fair enough.

MSNBC BREAKING NEWS: LOL JHOSHEA MAD.

HARDLY NEWS LOL

Cilantro is like the George W Bush of herbs.

"and the fact that people really hate her for essentially no reason"

power-hungry corporate lawyers in bed with big chicken and decades-long marriages of convenience and credibility issues up the wazoo does not a hero make to some folks.

some people hate her for decent reasons; many do not

I don't even hate her. if she were running against Lieberman or Zell Miller I'd totally be reppin for her.

THEY HAVE THE SAME HAIR, FOOL!

you know what freaked me out recently? ciao bella's mint chocolate chip gelato. and don't get me wrong, ciao bella is god-like, but they use real fresh from the garden mint in their gelato and it's like eating an herb garden. waaaaay too strong for me. i think i must prefer fake mint. unless i'm having a julep. or tea or something.

i've made my peace with cilantro. we agree to disagree. and i've even grown a little fond of my old nemesis. now that every restaurant on earth no longer feels the need to dump an ounce of the stuff on whatever i'm eating.

i kinda hate her but sure theres a lot worse out there - its a little painful watching her clapping smiling getting the crowd pumped right now

Hey remember Mark Halperin's cryptic message earlier? 'White lights lead to red lights which lead to exits'? You know, like on an airplane? That's in trouble?

mark halperin is my favorite republican

i hate everybody and even i think obama is awesome! that must say something. i even like his wife! and i hate everyone's wife! she was killer on larry king last night. flirty, cool, and friggin' smart as hell.

once obama hits texas and starts chowing down on some tacos, he'll have the latino voters eating out of his hand. just you wait!

did i mention that every town on martha's vineyard went for obama? we are way smart. ONE guy voted for fred thompson. i gotta find that guy.

that would be a fun little project

yes Michelle Obama rules. and dresses sooooo well.

their whole family is lookin good

Ohio poll numbers are totally useless this early.

wow is anyone watching this hillary pandering to texas right now - surprised shes not wearing a cowboy hat

Cilantro is like the George W Bush of herbs.

An abomination! I protest. The trick with cilantro is to use it sparingly. As opposed to Bush, who should not be used at all.

xxp yes they are. witness VA results:

According to exit polls, Obama won nearly 60 percent of the female vote, a demographic that has carried Clinton to success in past primaries.

"theres this phrase in tx, youve all heard it before, all hat and no cattle"

?!?!?

yeah I'm watching jh0. she was like translucently worried at first, before she got going.

she will be clearing brush in no time

HOOS NOT REALLY A TEXAN

The trick with cilantro is to use it sparingly

I've been taught to avoid it completely. The one time I broke Mom's rule and used it on black beans = swill.

None of you people have had proper Vietnamese cuisine, I can tell. Philistines.

i like cilantro and I vote

I question the taco-enthusiasm of any person who defames cilantro

This cilantro kills fascists.

i hate cilantro but i love brownie except when the browns are playing the steelers

I went to a thai restaurant recently and ordered the stir fry. The definitely not-thai cook only put the following things in: chicken, lime, onions, iceberg lettuce, and cilantro. Worst Thai Ever.

which is everyday in my mind :\

xpost

wtf who of any ethnicity cooks iceberg lettuce?

I like how Hillary constantly rails against No Child Left Behind while conveniently avoiding the fact that she fucking voted for it to begin with

(sorry just checkin in while watchin her speech in El Paso)

How tf is Hillary even allowed to get coverage for her ignore-the-polls-today-hey-look-at-me-instead rally?

Okay, so I'm away from television. Did she actually use the "all hat, no cattle" line in reference to Obama?

Hillary's Texas "rally" is making me miss Ann Richardson

RICHARDS, holla

NASA's Ann Richardson:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/images/content/99467main_9803548_t.jpg

Obama's in a zone again tonight.

He kinda lives in a zone.

He's been peaking lately, tho. He understands building -- and sustaining -- momentum. But he'll be sorely tested in that regard in a GE.

Did she actually use the "all hat, no cattle" line in reference to Obama?

nah she was talkin about GW

McCain: "That man is a dynamic speaker."

Romney was right. Up next to Obama, McCain is pretty much exactly like Bob Dole.

john mccain talks like the real seymour skinner

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ae/The_Simpsons_4F23.png

McCain's speech here is just so unbelievably sorry.

Well, he's road testing an interesting theme against Obama right now: McCain -- unlike Obama -- isn't claiming to be a transformative figure that was sent here to save the nation; I'm a humble man who has been improved by those around me and I want to help the nation in turn.

It's not a bad line. He's just not great delivering it.

He is a less offensive figure to me tonight.

Maybe he'll be more palatable as he needs to pander to the right less-and-less.

Yeah that's what I mean. He sounds like even he's bored listening to his speech.

xpost.

Chris Matthews is making a good point re: McCain.

McCain is surrounded by listless, elder establishment types, and he seems -- compared to Obama -- very listless and defensive.

(Still, War Hero; Hawk; Maverick; Press LOVES him. Hard to beat).

I thought the press "loved" Obama now.

the press is a drrty tramp, obv

http://images.politico.com/global/clintonshirt.jpg

The "ma" is for "Obama," obviously.

McCain is better at schmoozing with the press than he is at speaking to a crowd. He can't deliver a pre-written text worth a damn. Off-the-cuff sometimes he can sound OK.

I thought the press "loved" Obama now.

They do, Alfred. It's hard to tell, tho, whether the press' current love for Obama is analogous to Matt Drudge's "love" for HRC earlier in the election cycle (i.e., the love of a great story, aided by a seething hatred for HRC, who doesn't like or trust the press). Also, the press doesn't love Obama like it loves McCain. The press loves Obama, but the press loves McCain.

"Ma Clinton"

McCain, like Hitchens, is only great when he's got someone to hate.

Hm. Is it me, or was Obama a bit more pointed in tonight's speech against Republicans? I mean, there was that savvy praise of John McCain, but I thought otherwise, Obama laid into the GOP pretty good.

My dad: "Obama is the best stump speaker since the Kennedys. If you see the old speeches of Robert Kennedy and John Kennedy, they move people. Barrack Obama moves people."

And then there's this:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp2-12-08q.jpg

Warner's hair is a thing of beauty.

NOT THAT THERE'S ANYTHING WRONG WITH THAT, NED. Just two men showing some healthy affection for each other.

There's some nuzzling going on there.

john mccain talks like the real seymour skinner

-- m bison, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 03:08 (38 minutes ago)

CNN's Anderson Cooper is TEH REAL Simpsons character in this race! His upper lip can't keep up with all that he's saying, it's quite insane!

Also, has McCain stuffed several previous presidents in his left cheek? Is Nixon hidden in there somewhere, or should he seriously see a doctor?

Good point, tho it's encouraging to see the Democratic leadership on the offensive at this juncture, going right at John McCain's supposed strengths.

Also, has McCain stuffed several previous presidents in his left cheek? Is Nixon hidden in there somewhere, or should he seriously see a doctor?

He's suffered from malignant melanoma.

He's suffered from malignant melanoma.

Didn't know that, thanks.

Yeah - he's apparently in pretty good shape otherwise, but I wonder how he's going to hold up to the stress of a general election campaign. He's 71 years old! My grandparents are only a few years older than that, and they're pretty active for their old age - but I wouldn't want them running the country. I just don't think their bodies and minds could withstand the sheer weight of it.

ageist

I haven't heard much, thus far, about the fringe crazies' reaction to Obama's ascendancy, but I'm sure KKK/skinhead-types are apoplectic now.

Anyone seen anything on this?

False "madrassa" story about Barack Obama

Yeah, but that's more like a GOP attempt to "Swift Boat" Obama, no? I'm talking more about base-level, frenzied skinhead-ish craziness.

they're writing angry letters to their representatives.

I would attempt a serious response but I'm too busy thinking about PIRANHA 3D: THEY FLY @ U FACE

With crayons, maybe.

(xp)

YES, I WANT TO SEE THAT BIDEO.

(Oh, will Piranha 3D get a wide theatrical release?)

Yeah, but that's more like a GOP attempt to "Swift Boat" Obama, no? I'm talking more about base-level, frenzied skinhead-ish craziness.

seems exactly like the latter to me.

What Tombot said.

I would like to see a copy of the minutes for the first skinhead meeting after obama is elected president.

Right! That's entertainment.

Skipping 192 messages at this point... Click here if you want to load them all.

whoah.

1,000 new answers by midnight

-- Shakey Mo Collier, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 9:27 PM

A seer.

8:32 P.M. discuss plans to assassinate president
8:45 P.M. keep brothers from moving to Canada
8:51 P.M. Coffee with extra cream and powdered sugar donuts ONLY!

Okay, of all the various bad political cartoons out there recently, this might take the cake -- thanks, Daily Telegraph!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/graphics/2008/02/11/ixd11big.gif

wow, so many levels.

i love how the tornado couldn't give a shit that the woman has downs syndrome.

camilla paglia is pretty great at salon

oh this camille pagila?

On the climate-change front, Denis Dutton, founder of the superb Arts & Letters Daily Web site, has created a new site, Climate Debate Daily, as a forum for both sides in the ferocious controversy over global warming. The site's lucid dual format is exactly what has been needed to shed scholarly light on this heavily politicized battle, which has been very difficult to follow for everyone but fanatical true believers. Climate change, whether man-made or (as I think) natural, will remain a vital issue for decades simply because it is shaping or coercing government policy worldwide.

On another front, while I think McCain will be the favorite in a GE with Obama, I think it's interesting that the early line of attack he's taking is just like the one that HRC is employing, unsuccessfully ("My experience allows me to achieve change, not just talk about it").

McCain v. Obama would be the biggest age-gap in a GE contest ever.

not even the 1932 shirley temple/will rogers match?

Democratic Races
Reporting
1st Place
2nd Place

DC 98%

Obama 75%
Clinton 24%

MD 67%

Obama 60%
Clinton 37%

VA 99%

Obama 64%
Clinton 35%

Jesus, he really DID get 3-1 in DC

Whereas:

Republican Races
Reporting
1st Place
2nd Place

DC 98%

McCain 68%
Huckabee 17%

MD 67%

McCain 55%
Huckabee 30%

VA 99%

McCain 50%
Huckabee 41%

The Huck ain't getting much traction there...

Yeah, but that's more like a GOP attempt to "Swift Boat" Obama, no? I'm talking more about base-level, frenzied skinhead-ish craziness.

as if there's a difference any more?!?

Great headlines of all time - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/mccain

haha, like Bob Dole in a Diet pepsi commercial

meanwhile, idiot from RedState whining about why the GOP don't support the RWA follower blogs the same way the democrats do their own supporters:

Erick Erickson, editor of the popular conservative megablog RedState, conceded that progressives currently enjoy an advantage over conservatives online—though he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

Welfare bloggers havin' abortions for fun.

66
All streams flow to the sea
because it is lower than they are.
Humility gives it its power.

If you want to govern the people,
you must place yourself below them.
If you want to lead the people,
you must learn how to follow them.

The Master is above the people,
and no one feels oppressed.
She goes ahead of the people,
and no one feels manipulated.
The whole world is grateful to her.
Because she competes with no one,
no one can compete with her.

McCain on Obama: ''That's not hope . . . . . . . . that's a platitude.''

BOOM! PRINT IT ON A T-SHIRT.

Does a universal health care plan really require 100% buy-in to generate the $$$ necessary to leverage a manageable price?

i think the main line of thinking is that once you allow any kind of opt-out you open the door to more opt-outs in the future and to a ghettoization of govt-funded health care

there is also the fact that young, healthy people will often choose not to get health insurance and if you continue to allow this it drives up premiums for everyone since your pool is composed of more old and sick people

Erick Erickson, editor of the popular conservative megablog RedState, conceded that progressives currently enjoy an advantage over conservatives online—though he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

No - the time we spend not raising kids and not working so we can blog is more than equalled by the time conservatives save driving their giant SUVs, instead of utilizing mass transit. and ignoring the homeless or otherwise underprivileged. Right? Right?

that's not hope...
http://soer.justice.tas.gov.au/2003/image/559/ilw/p-platypus_m.jpg

jesus, these people are very far down the rabbit hole

i know obama has an answer about young healthy people but i can't remember what it is now

a sex worker looks at who's really the pimp around here: bill clinton, the big pimp lobster of hope

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/tracy_quan/2008/02/whos_pimping_who.html

john mccain talkslooks like the real seymour skinnersawyer

-- m bison, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 03:08 (38 minutes ago)

FIXED

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021208DailyUpdateGraph2.gif

Love these Gallup polls you've been posting. They're so aesthetically pleasing.

They really are!

the little edwards line is so sad

so is anyone else kinda psyched to see what sort of low-down desperate shit the clinton camp is gonna come up w/to try and save their asses?

I'm interested. But again, she isn't out of it. And I think that if Obama tries to make his own 'inevitability' case in a hamfisted way, it could cost him sometime soon.

The voters don't seem to like these self-annointments.

i'm interested to see how they'll spin it when questioned about obama's victory among their conventionally 'strong' demographics in VA

i kind of think that they'll just do their best and bow out with class, i don't think they want to tarnish their legacy more. they might put up a fight about the florida delegates, but it might not matter by then anyway

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080213/i/r1797012930.jpg

i really don't understand how the clinton camp expects to secure voter support in a general election across all the states obama has won if they continue to belittle the contests they lose and and explain them away with exit poll data. and total ad buy sums. and the unfairness of the caucus system. etc. ad nauseam.

lol bow out w/class? these are cliiiiiintons remember.

she isn't out of it.

as far as the math goes she'll have to have blowout wins in ohio and texas to retake the delegate lead. maybe shes not out of it but she is in a very tight spot. everythings pointing toward obama wins in wisconsin and hawaii and then two weeks of nothing but the media speculating on how many of her super delegates will defect. yikes!

btw remember, by clintonian logic --> if you're working class, then you're likely to be a clinton supporter. unless you're black and working class, in which case, you're just black.

xposts to the obama camp making the inevitability argument now. i agree i was a bit thrown off when i read that, thinking, is this really what they want to be saying right now?

i'm not sure it's the best thing to be saying at this moment, but who knows? obama has a big winning streak going on that definitely demands a lot more attention than some on the more cautious side of things might want to give. the obama camp clearly wants to step up the pressure that he's a winning candidate.

otoh, i'm still anxious about a hillary comeback. right now things slightly resemble the situation after iowa - a lot of the press saying "hillary's done, let's get this shit over with, etc." but then she came back.

i think the ohio/texas gamble is seriously risky, but i wouldn't be surprised if she pulls off a narrow win in both states. she'll obviously then make a big, blown-up case about it that might be a little difficult to contend with. it'll at least prolong the fight for a while.

i really don't understand how the clinton camp expects to secure voter support in a general election across all the states obama has won if they continue to belittle the contests they lose and and explain them away with exit poll data.

seriously.

But I worry that it'll also allow the journalistic hacks who follow HRC the right amount of time for their Hills-is-back stories to influence outcomes.

http://i72.photobucket.com/albums/i191/fluxion23/hillary-clearing-brush.jpg

he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

lol XD

oooh nice:

Puerto Rico Governor to Endorse Obama

(i doubt puerto rico will come into play, but this can't hurt in trying to appeal to some latino voters)

otoh, i'm still anxious about a hillary comeback. right now things slightly resemble the situation after iowa - a lot of the press saying "hillary's done, let's get this shit over with, etc." but then she came back.

a couple differences between then and now: obama has built up a much more impressive resume than winning just the one barely populated state and polling well in the other barely populated state - and clinton needs to do more than eek out a win in the second barely populated state, she needs to win big in two big states. then it was all abt the mo - now its abt the mo and the math.

although that comeback in nh has prevented the press from calling this thing. if they hadnt been burned the first time everyone would be writing her obituary right now.

Isn't she 17 points ahead in Ohio or something?

yah shes been way up everywhere 3 week out - then obama comes to town.

http://i32.tinypic.com/efwq9.jpg

then it was all abt the mo - now its abt the mo and the math.

yea this is true.

the mo and the math.

Sounds like the new Clipse album.

I'm not gonna tell Penn Jillette's joke.

Isn't she 17 points ahead in Ohio or something?

take a look at this: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/About_that_Ohio_poll.html

not that it means clinton doesn't have an edge (right now i'm sure she's still ahead), but it might suggest that the edge isn't quite as large as 17 points.

apparently some of the data in the ohio poll relies on figures that haven't really matched up to what's been happening so far in other states (esp. re: independent turnout, black support for obama, etc.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzGbj_ERlJ0

official clinton ad up in wisconsin, pushing the "if-he's-so-great-why-won't-he-debate-hillary" argument

lol

the ad shows the things to come. i think we'll see the clinton camp getting a lot more negative over the next few weeks

Uh, from "Republicans for Obama":

OBAMA SAID OBAMICANS!!
Tue, 02/12/2008 - 11:56pm — SandiLincoln

Tonight, Feb 12, during his speech in Madison, Wisconsin, Obama used the word Obamicans! YOU GUYS, we are an actual demographic and we need to be so proud of ourselves and our candidate, Senator Barack Obama, because we epidomize change. Changing party's, changing our mind set, and changing our world. YOU GUYS ROCK!

OBAMA 08~We are the ones we were waiting for!

epidomize.

sounds like a bizarre sexual practice

gawd, I thought I saw Meredith Hunter in that drudge photo for a second.

OBAMICANS EPIDOMIZE!

bill clinton, the big pimp lobster of hope

loooooool

OBAMICANS EPIDOMIZE!

-- jhøshea, Wednesday, February 13, 2008 4:25 PM

sounds like something you'd command a giant robot to do

if-he's-so-great-why-has-he-only-debated-hillary-like-18-times?

Sorry I Epidomized Your Son

yah thats pretty much waht i was thinking hoos

Honey, I Epidomized the Kids

gawd, I thought I saw Meredith Hunter in that drudge photo for a second.

Why are we fighting?! Why are we fighting?! Come on!

http://bp3.blogger.com/_6UzdmF8O-Oo/R7CORHtxSZI/AAAAAAAAGZU/v0IAHZIybFI/s1600-h/IMG_8773.jpg

same girl, same jacket, in a less sucessful combo imho

http://bp3.blogger.com/_6UzdmF8O-Oo/R7CORHtxSZI/AAAAAAAAGZU/v0IAHZIybFI/s1600-h/IMG_8773.jpg

worng thread homie

haha oops

favorite drudge headline of the morning:

MSNBC's Matthews: Obama Speech Caused 'Thrill Going Up My Leg'... 

Obama's new campaign song: "Panama"

team clinton adjusts its threatened 'no-debates' stance re: NBC, agrees (again) to the ohio debate:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/breaking_hillary_campaign_agre.php

seriously?! xpost

No, goodness. Just a little joke about Chris Matthew watching Obama speak... ease the seat back... AIN'T NO STOPPIN' NOOOOOOWWWWW

God, I so wish!

MoDowd:

It’s not yet clear which prejudice will infect the presidential contest more — misogyny or racism.

(...)

As a possible first Madame President, Hillary is a flawed science experiment because you can’t take Bill out of the equation. Her story is wrapped up in her marriage, and her marriage is wrapped up in a series of unappetizing compromises, arrangements and dependencies.

Instead of carving out a separate identity for herself, she has become more entwined with Bill. She is running bolstered by his record and his muscle. She touts her experience as first lady, even though her judgment during those years on issue after issue was poor. She says she’s learned from her mistakes, but that’s not a compelling pitch.

(...)

If Hillary fails, it will be her failure, not ours.

CMON, PENN JILLETTE JOKE

Meanwhile, Erica Jong sees a vast patriarchal conspiracy:

Unfortunately the Hillary-Haters are in charge. They monopolize the networks, the newspapers, the talk shows -- both radio and TV. They are crossing their legs for fear of castration. They are wearing the body armor our troops never got. Or got too late to matter. They are determined that a woman will not prove herself competent as Commander in Chief.

What's their ammunition? Oh, it's simple. They call her Mrs. Clinton, not Ms. or Senator. They pull out those nutcrackers in the shape of her supposed thighs. They complain about her ankles -- too thick. They complain on Fox TV that "White women are the problem" -- (idiot boy Kristol, the brain-damaged scion of Irving who rose through nepotism like our unelected "president"). Then they say she has "baggage" -- which could mean wrinkles, or her husband, or her daughter Chelsea whom they say she is "pimping." Then they say she never divorced Bill -- as if it's anyone's business. Then they moon over Obama's rhetorical style. Then they make it appear that she's a drone or a worker bee and has no royal jelly. Or else she has royal jelly and is queen bee. And that's her problem.

all the Times columnists have been pretty shitty lately imo ... Rich, Dowd, Krug

entire letters column today was given over to the reaction to Krugman's "Hate Springs Eternal" (obama is a cult leader, they're destroying the dem party w/ their anti-Hils venom, omg his health plan blah blah). dude is kind of being a huge baby. they only printed one letter that agreed with him.

xp, OK, I was curious, Morbs:

http://crackle.com/c/Penn_Says/Penn_Says_Hillary_Clinton_Joke_Predicts_the_Future/2180807#ml=fc%3d52%26fp%3d1%26fx%3d

for those who dont want to sick though penn blathering:

hillary is complaining that unfair all these primaries being held during black history month when theres no white bitch history month.

i should get a pulitzer for that post

no, ppl should just post the fun parts of Dowd columns

"fun"

dood wtf Erica - we should call her Ms. Clinton!? People call her Senator Clinton all the time!

okay what is this Jillette joke (he's a jerk and I don't have sound at work so someone gimme the gist)

oh nevermind

x-post!

yeah, and his schpiel is that when he did that joke in his act, he was worried that people would boo and get offended and whatnot, but they went nuts laughing and applauding and gleefully venting their hate, and he was shocked. And he learned from this that she doesn't stand a chance.

august is white bitch history month

Ex-President Clinton's '92 national campaign manager is reportedly lined up to endorse Obama.

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/11495/thumbs/r-OBAMATARGET-large.jpg

THERE IS NO ESCAPE

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary pollster Mark Penn unveiled the campaign's new message: Hillary, he said, is in the "21st Century solutions business," while Obama is in the "problems business."

haha omg what a steaming load of shit

someone get her a Century 21 realtor jacket pronto

this changing their message every week strategy doesnt seem to be working out too great

so fucked

the epidomization of 21st century solutionizing

McCain taking some shots at Obama in his victory speech last night, perhaps a foreshadowing of his argument in the general:

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/02/13/after-victories-mccain-turns-to-attacking-obama.html

"Hope," said the former Vietnam prisoner of war, referring to the overarching theme of Obama's campaign, "is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience."

But, he added, "To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope, it is a platitude."

wtf is the "problems business"

Even if Obama wins the nom, this isn't the last time we'll hear a version of that message. Obama says, "This won't be easy. Change is hard. We will need everyone's help. We're all in this together, we've all gotta pull some weight." It's uplifting and inspiring, all this JFK stuff, ask not etc. But any smart opponent of his is going to try to spin it so that Obama's saying, "He's trying to tell you that our glorious, unprecedented post-war period of wealth and dominance is OVER! AND WE HAVE TO BEHAVE LIKE EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD AND MAKE COMPROMISES AND WORK HARD! WHAT A BUMMER!" And then arrive at speeches on a gravy train with biscuit wheels.

Too little too late for Hillary, tho.

bad wording there, they'll spin Obama's (I believe) truths into ugly pessimism.

Which is one of the big things I like about the guy -- his seeming lack of baby-boomer entitlement.

eh mccain will just sit there babbling abt awz wars while getting his ass handed to him more like it

Obama's message = pessimism? can't see that one sticking.

kenan's meandering confused post off tm

obamas message: "WELL WE ALL DIE SOMEDAY, RIGHT?"

"YEAH, SO, THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO SUCK, BUT WE DESERVE IT. VOTE FOR ME, OR DONT, WHATEVER. DOESNT REALLY MATTER."

I will be doing volunteer work for the ugly pessimism candidate

Campaign strategy, morbs? ;)

Some more excerpts from McCain's victory speech that could be construed as digs at Obama:

When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest ambition, and that all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn’t understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face.

In that confrontation I discovered that I was dependent on others to a greater extent than I had ever realized, but that neither they nor the cause we served made any claims on my identity. On the contrary, I discovered that nothing is more liberating in life than to fight for a cause that encompasses you, but is not defined by your existence alone. And that has made all the difference, my friends, all the difference in the world.

I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. I seek the presidency with the humility of a man who cannot forget that my country saved me.

i encourage john mccain to keep talking abt when he was a young man

as a criticism it just doesn't seem to have much bite

gonna be pretty hard, I think, for McCain to answer the charge that he wants 4 more years of Bush policy

I don't mean a direct intentional pessimism, obviously, but if Obama says something that suggests that America needs to start treating India and China as serious economic powers, and talking to them at eye level instead of our usual podium, well... it's not to hard to twist that a bit to play on a great many people's fears about a tanking economy and America's loss of status and power, and omg wtf we can't make even compromises with China because that means we live in a big stinking loser country and pappy didn't die in WWII so we could etc etc etc. And don't think that's not about to come to a boil in a lot of people's heads anyway.

mccain is screwed

"Hillary is in the 21st century solutions business. She knows that we all need grow our electoral synergies and co-innovate outside the box."

sorry, i just can't get over the bullshit

Yeah she looks desperate, no doubt, and voters can smell fear.

David Brooks gave kind of an interesting assessment of the prospects for Republicans on NPR's election coverage last night. In the event of a McCain-Obama contest, he suggested that the GOP strategy would be to peel off white, working-class voters. Whereas, in a McCain-Clinton contest, the battleground would be independents.

the GOP strategy would be to peel off white, working-class voters

a.k.a. tax cuts tax cuts tax cuts

can you entice working-class voters by promising tax-cuts that don't benefit the working class? lol

Maybe someone's mentioned this already; if so, I apologize. I think HRC has more problems in Texas than she thinks. If I vaguely understand it right, delegates aren't apportioned in Texas simply based on the popular vote. The state is divided into 32 districts. Each district has one delegate who goes to the winner of that district. The rest of the delegates that come from a district are based on how many people voted from that district in the previous two election cycles (or something like that). In 2004, historically black districts in Texas experienced huge increases in voter turnout (apparently, a popular African-American was on the ballot for prominent state office in 2004, thus encouraging high-voter turnout in largely African-American districts).

So even if HRC wins high percentages of the Hispanic vote in Texas (which, at this point, isn't so certain anyway), those districts will likely yield far fewer delegates than traditionally African-American districts, where Obama is a very strong candidate.

So again, there may be serious trouble ahead for HRC in a state she needs to win by a substantial margin.

I didn't say that very well, but I hope the point is clear.

Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, is the obvious counter to that although not guaranteed to work

xposts

can you entice working-class voters by promising tax-cuts that don't benefit the working class? lol

Hey- it worked for Reagan. He averaged 61% among white, working-class voters in '80 and '84.

hint: never ever listen to anything david brooks says. cause why? always wrong.

Bush also carried white, working-class voters in 2000 and 2004:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/2004/12/bushs_reagan_lite_coalition.html

yeah except the reagan figure in this race is obama

Only 126 of the 228 Democratic delegates from Texas will be chosen via election results.

.....Bush failed to capture any of the northeastern or Pacific Coast states that Reagan had won easily in 1980 and '84, and he failed to make dramatic gains nationally among the voting groups that had moved into the Democratic Party in the 1990s. Rather, the key to Bush's victory was reviving Reagan's support among the white working class. According to the post-election survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps/Institute for America's Future, Bush enjoyed a whopping 24-percent edge among non-college-educated whites, compared with a 19-percent advantage in 2000. (Clinton had actually carried this group by a point in each of his election victories.) Insofar as whites still make up 77 percent of the electorate and non-college-educated whites represent a majority of the white vote, that increase alone accounts for most -- perhaps 70 percent -- of Bush's improved performance in 2004.

...

....Barring [successful Republican exploitation of a new terrorist attack], the Republicans' "Reagan-lite" coalition does not appear to have broad enough support to dominate American politics for the rest of the decade. That should open the door to the Democrats and their new coalition -- especially if they can find a way to both mobilize their new center-left and nominate candidates with some comfort level among white working-class voters. The results of the 2004 election suggest that's the right formula. If Democrats want to win and bring their majority into being by the end of the decade, they should adopt it.

-from that Ruy Teixeira article linked above

what will mccain do (WWMD!) on healthcare? will he just be calling any Dem plan commie socialized medicine or have some alternative "reform" proposal or what

gallup tracker for today has Obama ahead for the first time so far, 45% to 44%:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021308DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

If nothing else, it makes me a bit skeptical when all of these conservative paragons are so united in their refrain that Obama would be the more fearsome Democratic candidate to face in the general. It starts to have a bit of that "Please don't throw me in that briar patch" ring to it. Head-to-head polls are pretty meaningless. You need to look at the swing states and the key voter demographics. By that measure, it should give us pause that Obama seems to be weakest in the demographic that was key to Bush's victories in '00 and '04. I take some consolation in the fact that some big swing state primaries are yet to come (esp. Ohio). If that state ends up deciding the nomination, I think that would be probably a good thing for the Democrat's general election hopes.

Oversimplified to be sure (and long, be forewarned), but this is an interesting discussion of broad political narratives and Sen. Obama, by former Sec. Labor Robert Reich.

obama camp hits clinton on nafta in an ohio mailer:

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0002.jpg
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0003.jpg
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0004.jpg

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/content/obama-mailer-slams-clinton-nafta

I can't make that out, can you find a version that's a little bigger...?

THAT MAILER HAS BLINDED ME.

Opposed NAFTA! Really, I haven't heard anything from Obama that I disagree with. Usually I have to ignore a few compromises when I vote for someone.

ugh, sorry, i didn't know the images were so big :(

LOL OBAMA IS HUEG

Really, I haven't heard anything from Obama that I disagree with.

So, the CULT OF OBAMA has fooled you, too. Break free:

That's not hope. . . . . . . That's a platitude

Usually when I join a cult, I notice little things like the Kool-Aid tasting funny. Not with this one.

But this is special, "self-glory," "empty rhetoric" Kool-Aid.

(Damn, too many commas).

FLAVOR aid.

NOT Kool aid.

Hey, is there an election happening this year?

FLAVOR aid.

NOT Kool aid.

-- Mackro Mackro, Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:14 PM (Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:14 PM) Bookmark Link

Yeah, yeah,yeah, and Meredith Hunter wasn't really stabbed during "Under My THumb", not "Sympathy for the Devil".

Is now the right time for me to make my "Okay now yr getting REALLY racial" joke?

By that measure, it should give us pause that Obama seems to be weakest in the demographic that was key to Bush's victories in '00 and '04.

o. nate

Yeah. Then again, we can take consolation from the fact that McCain is similarly weak among at least one of Bush's key demographics.

Is now the right time for me to make my "Okay now yr getting REALLY racial" joke?

-- HI DERE, Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:18 PM (Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:18 PM) Bookmark Link

Yes. Hopefully it'll be funnier than the Penn Jillette joke.

Though I have to say that cancer is funnier than the Penn Jillette joke.

who wants to start a thread for all the NON-prez elections this year?

It isn't. It was an "oh, all black people drink Kool-Aid??????? thatsracist.gif" lowball.

Rasmussen also has Obama ahead for the first time nationally.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

I think, in hindsight, today will be considered the tipping point in the dem primary race

(omg do you think obama has read gladwell? lol j/k)

Then again, we can take consolation from the fact that McCain is similarly weak among at least one of Bush's key demographics

Sorry if I'm being dense, but what demographic is that?

evangelicals? republicans?

The former is what I meant.

people w/ the last name "bush?"

xp

evangelicals?

Interesting point - but I've seen little evidence that Obama, with his social positions which are considerably more liberal than McCain's, would be able to attract many of them.

the goal is to get them to stay home

not liking David Brooks doesn't mean he's wrong. Ruy Teixeira's saying comforting things doesn't mean he's right.

the fact that Hillary beats Obama among white working class voters in Dem primaries does not necessarily mean that she is ultimately the better candidate to win their votes, and not just because of their trade voting records. such voters are, for instance, less mediated than those carefree, wine-drinking elites who love Barack. they've known and liked Hillary for years and years. that they have to meet the new guy doesn't mean that they're going to vote GOP.

black voters might be more inclined to vote barack, of course, and it took some distancing by bill to push them over, but they've obviously gone huge for obama once they realized they didn't have to be on the clintons' side.

It isn't. It was an "oh, all black people drink Kool-Aid??????? thatsracist.gif" lowball.

Only the blacks in Guyana.

Guyana, Mississippi!

"This is not Bill Clinton's backyard or his plantation."

http://newbrooklynnetwork.typepad.com/brooklyn_ron/2008/02/bill-perkins-sa.html

via Ben Smith:

"First Latina President"

Ken Vogel spots those words in a sign on stage at Clinton's event in Robstown, Texas.

"first interracial co-presidency" am i right?

"Hillary is our friend"

the goal is to get them to stay home

ostensibly by likening McCain's stated positions to Obama's (both against Gay Marriage amendment, pro-choice, pro-stem cell, etc.)

the goal is to get them to stay home

-- Shakey

No joke. 1000% OTM. Hopefully, that'll be McCain's great gift to this election.

McCain is pro-life.

pro-choice

Um, McCain's pro-life.

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/19/mccain-abortion/

xpost

Yes, but also pro stem-cell, which to an evangelical is not pro-life at all. (You know, because they're all fucking idiots.)

Robstown, Texas.

wauuu what a campaign stop

In 1999, the “moderate” version of John McCain said that overturning Roe v. Wade would be dangerous for women and he would not support it, even in “the long term.”

flip-flop, etc

here comes the substance

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/02/obama-takes-it.html
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/002855.php

infrastructure is way up there on my list of what gubmint should do in a positive sense

i dont think that obama is trying to get them to stay home, i bet hes trying to get a decent part of the evangelical vote (as much as a pro choice dem can - which i bet is more than most "fuck red states dude!!! did u know they have lower IQs???" liberals would figure)

Yes, but also pro stem-cell, which to an evangelical is not pro-life at all. (You know, because they're all fucking idiots.)

there's some expectation that he's gonna say we can develop stem cells in the lab now, so forget about the fetuses

Misperceptions About McCain's Abortion Stance

i dont think that obama is trying to get them to stay home, i bet hes trying to get a decent part of the evangelical vote

True enough. But overall, the more Evangelicals sit this one out, the better off Democrats are.

The funny thing is that, from what I understand, Obama has as -- if not more -- detailed a set of policy papers as any other remaining candidate.
I mean, what "substance" have you heard in John McCain's speeches, other than "We must be vigilent against terrorists and support our military and cut taxes" and lots of other fairly empty platitudes.

I think the "Obama lacks substance" criticism is really just a shallow way of trying to both acknowledge and mitigate Obama's great strength as a stump speaker. See, e.g., the last Democratic debate. Obama's plenty substantive.

(xp)

its more like the right covering their ass cuz they haven't bothered to dig up any dirt on him - they exhausted the majority of the primary cycle gearing up against Hillary

I followed a Drudge Report link to a Washington Times article about potential veep candidates. The article was missing, but these google ads appeared:
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www.the-end.com
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www.LDSplanet.com

Don't you know who I am?!

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1712834,00.html

want to reiterate i really like this thread and i dont get why some folks are all "i vowed not to read it." even when the argument is stupid it brings together some good insights and serves pretty well as a one stop shop for election updates/perspectives both internal and outside. Also, liveblogging the debates was a riot

Obama's got the papers, if anyone wants to see them. But while campaigning he doesn't need to be specific; every winner since FDR doesn't do much more than articulate principles instead of policy.

his campaign needs to kill this 'soaring rhetoric no substance' before it becomes Truth.

Looks like he did that this afternoon, if you follow the link to the GM speech.

oh i know he's showing substance, but if the charge is repeated ad nauseam it's still gonna stick.

deej i hope you're not including me in that. I very much enjoy this thread, despite myself.

he just needs to preface his policy talk more like he did there: "i'm gonna dig into it here folks sorry no applause lines".

this is a bit off topic, and i don't know what thread would be more relevant, but i got to axe bill clinton a question on a conference call today about free trade, so yay for college shit.

if the call were about the election i'd be all, dear mr pimp lobster of hope blah blah calm down on obama plz, but it the call was regarding his clinton global initiatives get-up.

i would have asked him to agree to a debate with Michelle.

she was awes on Larry King.

you do realize by not calling him dear mr pimp lobster of hope youve blown the chance to be a hero to us all - i mean if you got that on tape i dont know what id do

b clinton: why did you call me that
m bison: um internet joek
ilx: lololololololololol

the temptation was there

BRAEKIN LOCAL NEWS: apparently the archbishop in town is upset that known abortion-looker-awayer hrc is speaking at a catholic university (st marys) today, oh noes all around.

http://catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=11774

Keith Olberman:

"There are children who were unborn at the time of the first Democrat debate who are now walking."

how does a sentence manage to use the word 'unborn' and democrat as an adjective and not be george bush

so i went to the obama ri volunteer coordination meeting tonight, and i don't know if it's just because the organizers did a decent job of convincing me of the fact, but i think RI is entirely winnable due to the small manageable size of the state -- and due to how aggressively mobilized volunteers can reach the state. obama's good on the ground, and it's reasonable to suggest that ri will go for obama much like connecticut did.

http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=9674

I didn't fully digest john cole's previous post on this from yesterday, but I can definitely buy this