The fog of glove: how to measure defense?

new technology:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/09/19/DDNU198ABO.DTL&type=entertainment

What I don't like about attempting to measure defense thusly is that it takes for granted that the player is positioned correctly before the ball is put in play... which with certain players is more than often not the case.

the manager makes that call sometimes too tho, no?

I am specifically thinking of "Pasta Diving" Jeter here, who calls his own shots.

so should we throw in the towel and just stick with fielding pct?

There are ways, I'm sure, to take positioning into account. Managers order moves in all aspects of the game, after all.

Sheehan on the Gold Gloves:

Franklin Gutierrez did more to keep runs off the board than any non-pitcher in the game, ranking as the best defender by two top-shelf systems, Baseball Info Solutions' +/- and Mitchell Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating. He was far and away the best outfielder in the game, but given three slots, the voters couldn't land on the right answer. Ichiro Suzuki was a legitimate winner, but for Torii Hunter and Adam Jones to be awarded was simply a mistake. Hunter won it by reputation, this being his ninth Gold Glove, and his bat, this being his best season at the plate. Jones is the kind of young player these awards often overlook, would have been more qualified in 2008; his 2009 was marked by poor defensive performance, but also a strong offensive season—particularly at the beginning—that launched him onto the All-Star team and put him on the radar for this award. Jones has the skills that would seem to make him a good outfielder, but he did not convert balls in play into outs this year better than 20 other guys did.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rzr-and-new-fielding-stats

More data = better defense

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/8/30/2394031/information-increasingly-putting-defenses-on-the-offensive

Neat articles.

A friend wrote a blog entry on this today:

http://begonias.typepad.com/srubio/2011/08/technology-meets-the-new-paradigm.html

re that Stark article linked by SBN, I wonder if "There is no such thing as a fastball count" will become an acronym.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/5/2471149/just-how-good-is-curtis-grandersons-defense

There have been numerous ideas put forth trying to explain the discrepancy between Granderson's perceived ability and the results in the advanced metrics. The one that makes the most sense is positioning, as pointed out by the Wall Street Journal's Dan Barbarisi in August: Granderson plays to right-center, rather than straight-center, thanks to the presence of Brett Gardner, one of the more ridiculous left fielders you'll see. Gardner takes balls away from Granderson, and while those lost plays don't exactly count against Granderson, they are plays that simply aren't available for him to make -- something that would hurt his numbers, as the creator of FRAA, Colin Wyers, says:

As part of the multi-year collaboration beginning with the 2013 season, SABR will develop an expanded statistical resource guide that will accompany the Rawlings Gold Glove Award ballots sent to major league-level managers and coaches each year. In addition, SABR will immediately establish a new Fielding Research Committee tasked to develop a proprietary new defensive analytic called the SABR Defensive Index™, or SDI™. The SDI will serve as an “apples-to-apples” metric to help determine the best defensive players in baseball exclusively for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and Rawlings Platinum Glove Award selection processes. The collaboration also installs SABR as the presenting sponsor of the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award.

“The Rawlings Gold Glove Award is one of the most iconic awards in all of sports, and has continued to evolve throughout its storied history,” said Kurt Hunzeker, senior director of brand marketing for St. Louis-based Rawlings. “By marrying the ‘art of fielding’ with the ‘science of baseball,’ our new collaboration with SABR only cements the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and Rawlings Platinum Glove Award as the industry standards honoring defensive excellence at the highest level of baseball.”

http://sabr.org/latest/rawlings-gold-glove-award-adds-new-sabermetric-component-sabr

The new Gold Glove info:

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/8/19/4637018/gold-glove-awards-voting-system-rawlings-sabr-sabermetrics

Posnanski writes about this today:

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.ca/2013/08/the-new-gold-gloves.html#more

Truth is: I don’t know the answer to these conflicts. And, to be honest, I’m not sure there is a single answer -- things are just more complicated than that...But I now wonder if the truth, as it often does, falls in the middle.

A man after my own Husker Du-ish, black-and-white-is-always-grey heart.

so yer half sticking with errors and fielding pct, huh?

That wasn't the point he was making: "There are things the eye sees that the numbers miss. And there are things in the numbers that the eye cannot possibly follow. What I like so much about the new Gold Gloves voting is that it will use advanced stats AND the eyes of some of the shrewdest people in the game."

I know this has been hashed over to death, but for people in Toronto, it comes back to Roberto Alomar. It's very difficult for anyone who saw him play regularly to accept the idea that he was average defensively.

Is it not possible for someone to make amazing plays and still be average defensively?

I don't really see that as contradiction, but for some reason the "ARE YOU SAYING MY EYES ARE LYING CROWD" finds it a complete impossibility.

It's possible, I guess--average hitters do spectacular things on occasion. They don't tend to do them consistently, though, and--I think this would be the general feeling in Toronto--Alomar did them consistently, and made all the routine plays, and pretty much did it all. I don't think I'm shouting anything about lying eyes at the top of my lungs. I'm expressing skepticism based on personal experience.

Yeah I don't know enough about the way the defense is broken down to say why Alomar is rated as average, but defensive metrics are measuring things that might be hard to discern with the naked eye (like whether or not on average a similarly positioned fielder even gets to a ball to make a routine play). Also spectacular or memorable hitting by average dudes happens all the time and some people do try to convince other people that this average hitter is really some secret clutch superstar and ohmigod we better sign him next year, etc.

Also Gold Gloves should be a yearly measure. There is a lot of fluctuation in the defensive statistics (wtf Mike Trout) but I still think that's gotta be a better yardstick than some dude's overall impression of a player's defense based on maybe seeing him a couple of times plus consideration of reputation.

Which is exactly Joe's point: advanced metrics, with room for first-hand observation.

I know that range is one of the hidden things that Fielding Average doesn't measure. In terms of Alomar, his range was the precise thing that was so much fun to watch. That play in the '92 Series where he was out in short right field--that was the kind of thing we were accustomed to.

I meant one specific average hitter consistently doing spectacular things, not the whole group--I might not have been clear there.

I'm not even sure what a spectacular hit really is anyway. Maybe Juan Pierre hitting a home run.

I was thinking of spectacular one-game accomplishments by otherwise undistinguished hitters--Freddie Patek or Dioner Navarro hitting three home runs, Phil Weintraub knocking in 10--but you're right, that's not a very precise analogy to making great plays in the field.

I'm looking at Alomar's fielding stats, and he does well in range factor/game...except for his time in Toronto.

With the Padres: 2nd, 2nd, 1st
With Toronto: 5th, --, --, --, 4th
Leaves Toronto: 4th, 3rd, 2nd over the next three seasons

Where he does well in Toronto is in Fielding Pct: 5th, 1st, --, 3rd, 1st.

I give up.

did he play on turf anywhere else?

As I sat in the dentist's chair this morning, that occurred to me too. Maybe turf boosts fielding average (truer hops) but reduces range factor (ball scoots faster, players are more cautious about diving). Or maybe the Jays had a higher-than-normal strikeout/flyball staff. I honestly don't know--I'm sure people have tried to figure these things out with regards to Alomar.

I wonder if people in L.A. and St. Louis experience the same disconnect with Jim Edmonds, whose dWAR figures seem to be fairly ordinary. I'm someone who only knew Jim Edmonds the Human Highlight Reel.

Alomar played on grass in Jack Murphy Stadium and (of course) Camden Yards, so maybe there's something there. You'd have to check how the changeover affects other players, and I'm sure many people have.

wyers wrote a good thingie on WAR and defense a few months back: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20569

we have GG "finalists"

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/10/25/5029232/gold-glove-announcement-al-nl

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/10/25/5027950/rawlings-gold-glove-award-finalists

Might get a glimpse of the Fog of Glove tonight with Ortiz at first base.

OK, Nolan Arenado? I def watched some Rockies this year but he flew under my radar.

http://sabr.org/latest/2013-rawlings-gold-glove-award-winners-announced

i never get to actually watch much baseball, so no idea if these were good calls or not - but Hardy? is he actually that good at D?

Neyer:

Hardy was fine, but doesn't have the range of fellow finalist Alcides Escobar, who probably should have won this one.

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/10/29/5044554/2013-gold-glove-winners-fielding-awards-sabermetrics-statistics

hardy wasn't as good this year as he always is, but he's always good. he actually is a defense-first SS, despite the bombs.

which surprised me when we got him. and when i say "good as he always is" i mean "basically flat out incredible, one of the best in baseball." if only he could obp.

Minnesota giving up Carlos Gomez to get JJ Hardy then turning around and shipping Hardy after a bad season to B-more for a bag of balls is looking like a double bad deal at this point.

the one you should be ??? about thermo is jones, he's never been more than just acceptable out there and now that the GGs split the OF awards it's especially weird, he keeps taking these awards for CF when CFs have always been the winners. it's like crowning him king of the american league outfield.

SABR Defensive Index rankings thru mid-Aug:

http://sabr.org/latest/sabr-defensive-index-rankings-released-through-august-17-2014

One of the best arguments for the validity of new defensive metrics I've read (even though the argument is between the lines). I've often mentioned that I've been very slow on the defensive side of sabermetrics, but this frames the issue in a way that makes sense to me.

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/a-little-bit-above-normal/#more-2457

Although it does deal with the easy part of the question: convincing a skeptic that Torii Hunter's defensive metrics say he's not anywhere near what he used to be isn't all that difficult, as common sense says the same thing. Convincing me that Roberto Alomar in his prime wasn't anywhere near what I thought he was, that's tougher.

the full SABR Defensive Index™ rankings, through games of July 12, 2015.

http://sabr.org/sdi/2015-07-12

Do you guys think putouts per inning or putouts per nine innings is a decent way of assessing an outfielder's defensive value over an entire season?

out of date

Obviously errors and assists are not a part of the stat, but other than that, I don't know what is missing.

I'll throw out the example that's bothering me: Matt Kemp 0.6 WAR for the year, Gregory Polanco 2.5 WAR.

Kemp .265/.312/.443 23 HR, 100 RBI
Polanco .256/.320/.381 9 HR, 52 RBI

In right field this year:

Kemp 1282 innings, 269 putouts (8 errors, 10 assists)
Polanco 1220 innings, 247 putouts (8 errors, 13 assists)

I'm assuming Matt Kemp's lower WAR is due to defense, but he has a higher number of putouts per inning than Polanco. What is being measured that accounts for the difference in WAR?

not really sure. maybe Kemp had a lot more balls hit towards him that he didn't get to?

there's also the base running component of WAR tho, that would probably better explain the gap.

Looking at the fangraphs stats, Polanco does have more OOZ putouts - 97 vs. 71 for Kemp. They have almost exactly the same percentage of putouts per ball-in-zone.

26 more OOZ putouts gives a guy with much worse hitting stats four times the WAR as the other guy?

Polanco does have 27 stolen bases and Kemp has 12. Kemp has 38 more total bases, though.

also, i don't think 10 runs created necessarily = 1 WAR.

Neither do I, I was saying 10 runs more than another player, both above replacement level, would be 1 WAR.

I was using Polanco's numbers in right field only - 1220 innings.

the way we're framing this makes it sound like polanco is some defensive wizard. he's not

I had no intention of framing it this way at all. I was merely comparing their numbers.

10 "runs created" in the bill james sense also does not = 1.0 r/fWAR, but we're really missing the forest for the trees at this point. bottom line -- it's not hard to understand why an all-bat/no-glove guy can be less valuable than an all-around player, especially when the all-bat guy was roughly an average hitter

you might be underselling the value of a hit

The Dodgers this year had .496 runs for every hit, the Cardinals had .467, the Phillies had .456, and the Marlins had .432. Between the four teams, they averaged .462 runs per hit.

So, for 26 hits, that's about 12 runs and not 10.

I think the forest for the trees might actually be lost in that 0.6 WAR for a guy who was fourth in the league in RBIs but made 26 fewer OOZ putouts than Polanco.

you really love RBI huh? he was a barely above average hitter, played one of the least demanding positions on the field, and played it very poorly. even the jon heymans of the world can understand that that doesn't exactly scream "valuable player"

i also don't think it's a stretch to assume that the average hit outside an outfielder's zone is going to be worth a little more than the average overall hit

but look, if your aim here has just been about discrediting advanced fielding stats, i'm not gonna play anymore. i figured i'd at least attempt to help you understand

I think it's an interesting stat in that it involves actual runs, but I also think I understand all the caveats about the degree to which it's circumstantial.

My main point is that the discrepancy between the two players seems, to me at least, like a ton of mileage to account for given what we see with their offensive and defensive numbers (including the zone stats I brought up).

but i do think that skepticism that a case like this could actually happen is grounded in an old-fashioned belief that defense is of negligible importance

People always believed defense was important, but sayings like "defense never goes into a slump" used to be taken as gospel without any supporting evidence. Maybe it's more accurate to say that the value of good defense was well appreciated, at least qualitatively, but the negative value of bad defense was almost completely ignored.

i also don't think it's a stretch to assume that the average hit outside an outfielder's zone is going to be worth a little more than the average overall hit

Yes -- OOZ putouts are likely to be hit to the gaps and would go for extra bases if not caught. The average value of a single is around 0.4-0.5 runs, but I think a double is in the 0.7-0.8 range.

Does charging in on a ball and saving a single count as an in zone putout? If so, then a below average fielder might allow 10-20 balls to fall in front of him for singles per season, but "make up" for them by catching more routine fly balls due to his pitching staff.

What do you guys think of this assertion from the FanGraphs UZR Primer page:

"A typical outfield hit is worth around .56 runs and any batted ball out is worth around -.27 runs, so the difference between a hit and an out is worth around .83 runs."

The numbers I had last night showed that a hit for the Dodgers/Cardinals/Phillies/Marlins this year was worth about .46 runs. They're qualifying it by saying "outfield hits," but the number of infield hits expands that by .10? That would mean that infield hits make up 17.9 % of all hits.

And a hit for any of those four teams this year was a hit and not an out, so therefore "the difference between a hit and an out." I don't understand the premise of of subtracting another -.27 runs because it wasn't an out at all.

you should really take this up with someone with more expertise. suffice it to say that your back of the envelope calculations are less valid than the empirical data gathered by people who do this for a living

The numbers I had last night showed that a hit for the Dodgers/Cardinals/Phillies/Marlins this year was worth about .46 runs. They're qualifying it by saying "outfield hits," but the number of infield hits expands that by .10? That would mean that infield hits make up 17.9 % of all hits.

...no...

a hit into the outfield is going to do more damage than a hit through the infield. it's not a 1:1 relationship

but again, look, if it makes you feel better, you're right. kemp was the more valuable player because he had a lot of RBIs. defense doesn't matter that much. you win

I was skeptical about the defensive difference between Kemp and Polanco being worth something like 27.5 runs over the season based on the numbers. That is all.

this has been bothering me (although i love adam eaton)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/adam-eatons-year-for-the-ages

doesn't really inspire me to believe in current defensive metrics tho

no one is comparing him to Clemente yet

have we all seen this?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

IsBrittonInYet:
When evaluating outfield defense, how much stock do you put in Statcast’s numbers (ex. outs above average, number of 5 star catches) compared to DRS/UZR? Kevin Pillar had a DRS/UZR of 15/6 in 2017 but was -2 outs above average with no 5 star catches in 34 chances.

Dave Cameron:
It’s not about “stock”; it’s about what the information is telling you. So, for instance, Pillar’s value could come from positioning, which would mean that he doesn’t make as many plays where he has to run a long way in a short amount of time, but he’s still catching balls other worse-positioned CFs wouldn’t get to.

Also, it’s important to keep in mind that Statcast is just measuring range right now, so you don’t want to compare that measure to total DRS/UZR, which include errors and throwing arm.

If you just look at the range portion of UZR, Pillar is at +1; his +6 came from throwing and not making many errors.

Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton won the 2017 Rawlings Platinum Glove Award, presented by SABR. The winners were unveiled on Friday, November 10 during the 2017 Rawlings Gold Glove Award Ceremony, where the game's defensive stars accepted their hardware from some of baseball's greatest legends.

This is the first Rawlings Platinum Glove Award for both Arenado and Buxton. Arenado is the first infielder to start his career with five straight Rawlings Gold Glove Awards. Buxton is the first Twins center fielder to win a Rawlings Gold Glove Award since Torii Hunter in 2007.

The Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winners are determined by combining votes based on an adjusted SABR Defensive Index™ for each of the nine Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners in each League and the votes from baseball fans worldwide.

Based on the final SABR Defensive Index, Buxton was second in the American League with a 20.0 SDI, and Arenado was second in the National League with an 11.0 SDI.

I just skimmed this. The mere fact he's writing about baseball is encouraging enough--he mostly writes about the Cleveland Browns these days.

http://joeposnanski.com/dwar-to-end-all-wars/

(Love seeing Devon White's name on the CF list.)

1) I totally buy the idea that players can bring significant value via defense.

2) I have not seen every Cubs game this year, so maybe I'm missing something.

3) I stand by my years-old contention that publicly available defensive metrics are crap when this is what they tell me. pic.twitter.com/6yo6AuoWyV

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 5, 2018

Pio:

DRS thinks Machado is a historically bad shortstop and UZR thinks he’s just regular bad. Which one do you think is closer to the truth?

Jay Jaffe:

In general, I tend to prefer DRS to UZR because of the additional observational input beyond just batted ball type (both of which do have their biases, admittedly). But I think a good strategy when viewing defensive metrics is to be wary of the outliers, and DRS tends to have more than UZR does — the spread from top to bottom is generally wider. So I’ll go with garden-variety bad instead of historically bad.

the response to passan about schwarber's defense is that he has average-ish range and a good arm; passan's response was that that's reasonable in a vacuum, but is he really a better defender than almora or heyward? because that's what the stats are saying

is Schwarber particularly good at positioning or something? also i guess this might make sense if he's being strictly compared to other LFers, who are a pretty slow-footed and weak-armed lot to an extent.

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/def/

sounds like they're being compared to others in the same position AND others in other positions?

he's got a high UZR so i think that means he does well compared to other LFers ... i am not great at reading stats though

is Schwarber particularly good at positioning or something

that might be a factor. dexter fowler's outfield defense was poor before and after he played for the cubs (esp after). whoever is shifting the OF in chicago around seems to be doing a good job of making the most out of mediocre defenders.

fewer BIPs, less significance for defense

Unfortunately, data before 2003 is unavailable, but the stark drop in balls in play over time should make it clear that defense has become relatively less important—perhaps ground balls and hits on the infield were less prominent and this is just a shift back in the aggregate, but the increased rate of extra-base hits would lead us to believe the contrary, that infield defense was even more important in the last millennium.

In addition to fewer balls in play, though, teams have also moved to shift far more often. As Jeff Zimmerman outlined in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2014, shifting is in vogue. It makes sense, after all, since between 57 and 60 percent of pulled balls result in ground balls compared to 40 to 43 percent on balls hit to center and 22 to 27 percent on balls taken the opposite way. With advanced scouting and more data available, teams can better identify hitter tendencies and adjust with less risk. The fact that 24 hitters pulled at least 200 balls in play this year makes it even easier to do for the high-pull hitters (as Zimmerman notes, the top-20 players hitting into a shift accounted for over 2,500 plays in 2013, dropping their collective BABIP by 37 points in those situations).

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/infield-defense-changes-with-three-true-outcomes/

Best fielders in baseball per DRS:
1. Matt Chapman
2. Harrison Bader
3. JaCoby Jones
t4. Nick Ahmed/Lorenzo Cain/Miguel Rojas/Andrelton Simmons

Worst:
1. Charlie Blackmon
2. Adam Jones
3. Asdrubal Cabrera
4. Amed Rosario/Eduardo Núñez/Nick Castellanos/Miguel Andújar

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) August 16, 2018

Amed Rosario may be a terrible fielder but at least he has a 636 OPS. -1.1 bWAR this year

directional outs above average: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/directional_outs_above_average

kinda wonder if bader's numbers toward LF are skewed by marcell ozuna's shoulder injury -- recently saw bader come wayyy into left to take a sac fly attempt

Athletics vs Yankees at 3rd Base

Matt Chapman: 29 Defensive Runs Saved (most at 3B in MLB)

Miguel Andjuar: -25 Defensive Runs Saved (fewest in MLB)

This image shows difference in how often Athletics/Yankees get outs on grounders near 3B pic.twitter.com/5xGiQwdSti

— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) October 3, 2018

this seems like a more relatable, easier to understand way to communicate defensive stats

The Mets right fielder just launched himself full speed into the netting at Guaranteed Rate Field, which extends all the way down to the foul pole, to make a great catch. Extended netting is going to change some outfielders' approaches.

https://atmlb.com/318BlNz

Not full speed, but a dangerous play if the net hadn't been there.

guy is hitting .331 and he's just the "Mets right fielder"? c'mon

I leave all the little details to you, Morbs.

Defense has improved significantly since 2016, to the tune of thousands of extra hits taken away this year--I believe because of improved positioning that puts fielders further away from home plate. https://t.co/D9I0NbBrYY

— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) June 4, 2021

Just saw the N.L. GG nominees--Arenado's not up this year?

What happened to the good old days, when GGs were based on reputation and how well you hit?

can't really speak to the other two, but ke'bryan hayes is an absolute defensive wizard

which is just as well because he hits like an old-school shortstop

Evidently they look at this pretty carefully now. (Scroll down to "Why isn’t Arenado a finalist?")

https://theathletic.com/4974733/2023/10/18/mlb-gold-glove-finalists-list/

Hey, I think there might be a game on...