i would so be in finance i would be the king of finance so there
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 01:41 (fifteen years ago) link
Steve Coll has a pretty good post summing up one of the major problems with the current regulatory framework and implicitly makes a pretty good case for further gov't intervention in the markets
xpost ice cream until recently i was an associate at a large FI but now i work in PR
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 01:45 (fifteen years ago) link
japan can't cut its rate, it's already grazing zero. Guess the big fear next up is deflation.
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 01:55 (fifteen years ago) link
why is this shit always going down in October?
does fi stand for finance something - were u there when shit stared to get crazy - what was it like ???
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 01:56 (fifteen years ago) link
ice craem congratulations on yr promotion, for you are now... http://www.helstar.com/
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 01:56 (fifteen years ago) link
ty ty i could not have done it w/o the posters of ilxor.com
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 01:57 (fifteen years ago) link
lol omg it's all over
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 01:59 (fifteen years ago) link
FI = financial institution i worked in lol credit risk mgmt proof enough i suppose that the wrong ppl we're running the black boxes i quit like 1.5 yrs ago now (!!) tho and the place i worked is in pretty good shape but i cant really take credit either way. most of my friends from school work(ed) in finance and it is... not good now. most ppl are jumping to private equity/hedge funds i think
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:11 (fifteen years ago) link
do u understand derivatives
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:14 (fifteen years ago) link
F'(x) = f(x)
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:15 (fifteen years ago) link
what does a math dude do in pr
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:19 (fifteen years ago) link
sudoku?
― David R., Friday, 10 October 2008 02:20 (fifteen years ago) link
i work for a lot of finance lawyer guys, asked one of them jokingly about this a few weeks ago, he was pretty much like don't worry about it, our economy's the strongest in the world, etc. etc. but who knows
― Mr. Que, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:20 (fifteen years ago) link
ah no one know anything fuck it
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:22 (fifteen years ago) link
^^^ perfect for job in finance
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:24 (fifteen years ago) link
seeee
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:26 (fifteen years ago) link
been talking with a very successful veteran broker throughout all this, who was very concerned about bad mortgages 3 or 4 years ago, and who has been completely on point so far, and who says that neither he, nor anyone else he knows has ever seen anything like this, that it is of a totally unprecedented order and magnitude, that there is no telling whatsoever what the bottom will be, except that we're nowhere near it, and that there is absolutely no way to fix or even mitigate it at this point.
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:27 (fifteen years ago) link
</bummers>
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:28 (fifteen years ago) link
Forget the 1930s shitbin; this guy's all about the 1870s shitbin:
In fact, the current economic woes look a lot like what my 96-year-old grandmother still calls "the real Great Depression." She pinched pennies in the 1930s, but she says that times were not nearly so bad as the depression her grandparents went through. That crash came in 1873 and lasted more than four years. It looks much more like our current crisis.
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:30 (fifteen years ago) link
see now theres no way we cant mitigate it - thats saying that it doesnt mater what anyone does - which just seems patently absurd to me
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:31 (fifteen years ago) link
panic's hard to mitigate
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:32 (fifteen years ago) link
were the problem just panic itd be substantially easier to deal with
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:33 (fifteen years ago) link
effectively/materially/substantially mitigate i guess
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:34 (fifteen years ago) link
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EN225/chart;range=1d/image;size=239x110
― Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:36 (fifteen years ago) link
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EN225/chart%3Brange%3D1d/image%3Bsize%3D239x110
Especially with a non-existent president
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:37 (fifteen years ago) link
― negotiable, Thursday, October 9, 2008 10:34 PM (39 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink
basically hes saying were fucked and theres no way were not going to not be fucked - i can see that - still fucked is a pretty wide spectrum
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:37 (fifteen years ago) link
yeh the problem is founded panic, which has to be hella hard to mitigate
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:37 (fifteen years ago) link
Most panics are rational. It is what comes before that is irrational.
As for the 1873 thing I read an article a couple weeks ago comparing this crash with the 1836 one - tho I cannot find it now
― Kondratieff, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:39 (fifteen years ago) link
i have a hard time believing this situation can really resemble an event 80 or a 170 years ago too much
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:42 (fifteen years ago) link
I dunno, all the basics are there: human nature, greed, people in over their heads, shitloads of cash at stake
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:43 (fifteen years ago) link
sure but those qualities are too general to be prescriptive or particularly useful in any way
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:46 (fifteen years ago) link
...black people involved in the rainbow of politics
― Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:46 (fifteen years ago) link
lol did anyone read the steve coll post i linked? basically i think improved regulation/greater transparency of derivative markets as well as continued gov't intervention is the only way to mitigate right now? part of the problem is surely pyschological rather than structural and finding a way to put a known value on the losses will do more to restore equilibrium than anything else
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:47 (fifteen years ago) link
(xposts) yeah, he doesn't know. but the fact that he's gone totally zen, and that, despite knowing the market and the variables involved as well as almost anyone, he is clueless about how this will/can end, make his non-predictions somewhat alarming.
― negotiable, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:49 (fifteen years ago) link
bubbles and panics have a lot of things in common. I mean, the standard wisdom on the great depression is that it was exacerbated by government inaction. Yet this time they're acting all over the shop to the tune of trillions of dollars and still there's no credit and markets are tanking. I'm not saying it's even likely that we'll be 1873 or 1930 again, but I don't think it's v. hard to believe in resemblances between them. More complicated now, sure.
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:50 (fifteen years ago) link
I have no idea whether this crisis really resembles one past crisis or another, but the argument reminds me a bit too much of the one about whether Iraq is more like WW2 or Vietnam or Korea or the Spanish American War or whatever.
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:50 (fifteen years ago) link
we all gonna die
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:52 (fifteen years ago) link
So like, just to try to find any ray of hope at all, if this money hasn't actually taken effect yet and its failure is only psychological, is there a chance that once the money does take effect it will slow the crisis a bit?
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:53 (fifteen years ago) link
I remain to be convinced that getting the debt markets moving again is a viable solution to a problem of excessive debt
― Kondratieff, Friday, 10 October 2008 02:55 (fifteen years ago) link
btw i am really enjoying the term and concept shadow banking system
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 02:57 (fifteen years ago) link
― Kondratieff, Thursday, October 9, 2008 10:55 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink
theyre just trying to keep the economy from totally collapsing at this point - nothing so ambitious as eliminating excessive debt
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:00 (fifteen years ago) link
yeah kondratieff liquidity vs. solvency but at the same time if not later, when? you know? i still remained unconvinced that inaction is preferable to action, i guess.
― ******* (Lamp), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:04 (fifteen years ago) link
ilxors needin convincin
― stet, Friday, 10 October 2008 03:05 (fifteen years ago) link
I do kind of cringe every time I hear someone say that home prices need to stabilize for all this to work. Home prices are still too fucking high and a lot of the homes in these nuCali and nuFlorida type developments aren't worth much at all. Big ugly homes in the middle of nowhere with shit construction and inadequate demand.
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:07 (fifteen years ago) link
Like sorry guys, but the starbucks around the corner closed and folks don't have the money to pay for their 50 mile commute, let alone play golf at the new course.
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:08 (fifteen years ago) link
yah housing still def overpriced but its not like all of it is that new exurb type stuff
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:09 (fifteen years ago) link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
― velko, Friday, 10 October 2008 03:10 (fifteen years ago) link
lol local news doing man on the wall street interviews - lots head shaking confusion
― joseph sixpack (ice crӕm), Friday, 10 October 2008 03:12 (fifteen years ago) link