US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

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Y'all shouldn't read the Luntz return to the youth focus group post-debate.

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:29 (one month ago) link

I'd rather poke my eyes out

go polish your nose ring (sleeve), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:35 (one month ago) link

don't know if it's been discussed here, but the newest right wing outrage is a 'whistleblower' allegation that ABC secretly supplied the questions to Team Harris before the debate

Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:38 (one month ago) link

Y'all shouldn't read the Luntz return to the youth focus group post-debate.

Definitely read Jamelle Bouie's comments on it on Bluesky, though. (Reminder: Bouie also works for the Times.)

these focus groups are really a good reminder that undecided voters are people who don’t actually care about politics

also “abigail” is basically regurgitating online republican cant and is almost certainly lying about voting biden in 2020. i’m also doubtful that any of the people who did not vote in 2020 will vote this year

lastly, i find it striking that some of these people are able to watch trump be completely incoherent & then go “well maybe he’ll be a good president.” it’s like the fact that he is a white guy in a suit overrides everything else. (also the fact that they were literal children when he was president)

In response to someone who commented, "don't forget that he's also loud and confident, which in additional to being white and in a suit is probably all that makes up these people's idea of what a president is":

it is super interesting to me that they read harris being prepared as being “fake,” as if the only way to be a president is to be a loudmouthed idiot

Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:38 (one month ago) link

That ABC "whistleblower allegation" appears to be just entirely fabricated from one anonymous post, it's a literal nothing — there's not even one lady in Canton who slipped her one question — but it's just a thing to say. Among the many dumb things about it is that all of the questions were about totally obvious things that anyone could have predicted would be asked. Oh, they're gonna ask about the economy? And Gaza? And abortion? Phew, thanks for the heads up.

Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:50 (one month ago) link

There's also this fallacy that debates are where You Explain Policy.

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:52 (one month ago) link

yeah, I think they're trying to gin up some excuse for Trump's poor performance, so 'SHE CHEATED!' works as good as anything

Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:53 (one month ago) link

“Supplying the questions in advance” is such a ridiculous attack. It’s not a trivia contest. The economy, the border, abortion. I’m sure both teams prepared for these topics; if Trump decided to revert to cats and dogs it’s because he’s a moron.

Glam conspiracist (Dan Peterson), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:55 (one month ago) link

Or, what Tipsy said.

Glam conspiracist (Dan Peterson), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 21:59 (one month ago) link

the allegation that she had access to questions in advance is really funny considering their immediate post-debate spin was that she didn't actually answer any of the questions

symsymsym, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 22:08 (one month ago) link

or considering that literally nothing about what went terribly for Trump in that debate had to do with how prepared either were for the questions

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 22:25 (one month ago) link

It’s not a pop quiz!

O 'Tis Redding (Boring, Maryland), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 22:30 (one month ago) link

also Trump said that he won the debate bigly. so what's the problem?

scott seward, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 22:53 (one month ago) link

Trump is a big problem. Yuge.

Glam conspiracist (Dan Peterson), Tuesday, 17 September 2024 23:04 (one month ago) link

he destroyed kamala in the debate but she cheated and abc should be put in prison. makes no sense. he makes no sense. where is his sense?

scott seward, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 23:10 (one month ago) link

part of it is that, right now, the polls are at something like +3 +/- MOE. If the MOE is at the limits in favor of harris, we get into blowout territory. If they are the limits in favor of trump we get a 2016 type result.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, September 17, 2024 3:06 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

one comforting thought is that polling methodology has changed since 2020, apparently for the last two pollsters would get a number of respondants who would just yell "TRUMP!!" and hang up, in the past they wouldn't count those, but they've since realized those people probably are reliable Trump votes, so now they're counting them. apparently this is what accounts for a big portion of the polling miss in 2016 and 2020.

obviously you cant really predict which direction the polls are gonna miss in but I have to think the advantage Harris has in cash, field offices, and overall enthusiasm matters some. I mean until the vote is cast there's no one who is actually 100% certain to vote. it does seem like people are way more motivated to get this guy out of the picture than they are to give him 4 more years in office. even the idiots I know who are voting for him solely because they really do think tarriffs are gonna solve inflation are saying stuff like "look, it's only 4 more years, then we can be done with him". I have to think there's a chance some of these people just say, "eh, fuck it" on election day.

frogbs, Tuesday, 17 September 2024 23:58 (one month ago) link

one comforting thought is that polling methodology has changed since 2020, apparently for the last two pollsters would get a number of respondants who would just yell "TRUMP!!" and hang up, in the past they wouldn't count those, but they've since realized those people probably are reliable Trump votes, so now they're counting them. apparently this is what accounts for a big portion of the polling miss in 2016 and 2020

this is nyt siena poll, which is an outlier in terms of trump polling well (last one had him at +2 nationally)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/upshot/nyt-siena-poll-2024.html

flopson, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 00:05 (one month ago) link

that NYT story is as maddening as the rest of that series. Abigail in particular appears to be ... an idiot?

I? not I! He! He! HIM! (akm), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 02:18 (one month ago) link

very enraging when it’s obvious the person know they’re being disingenuous, but they don’t realize their attempt to be smart about it is insanely dumb

ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 02:22 (one month ago) link

Some folks on Bluesky have been looking to see if they can identify the most obviously Republican "undecided voters" and two of them seem to be literal political operatives. One was an intern at the State Department during Trump's first term. The Times has a real issue with using hardcore Republicans as sources and then calling them "undecided."

Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 02:30 (one month ago) link

They should probably interview the drop-off respondents in a diner to find out what small town America really thinks

assert (matttkkkk), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 02:32 (one month ago) link

the fact that the GOP is so into astroturfing these days makes me feel like Harris is ahead by even more than the polls show

frogbs, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 02:58 (one month ago) link

I see various online right-wing doofuses excited that there's been a big drop in Democratic mail-in ballot applications in Pa this year from 2020 — somehow not comprehending that the 2020 surge was driven entirely by COVID. A lot of those people are still voting this year, just not by mail.

Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 05:36 (one month ago) link

I think we have Donna Brazile and Hilary to thank for the questions in advance allegations

Heez, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 11:46 (one month ago) link

The dumbest part is that anyone with half a brain could have anticipated most of the questions, it's not like they were pulling out gotcha questions about soybean subsidies

Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 11:56 (one month ago) link

Good morning!

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:08 (one month ago) link

I see various online right-wing doofuses excited that there's been a big drop in Democratic mail-in ballot applications in Pa this year from 2020 — somehow not comprehending that the 2020 surge was driven entirely by COVID. A lot of those people are still voting this year, just not by mail.

whereas of course the Republican voters were ignoring COVID measures to vote in person

assert (matttkkkk), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:38 (one month ago) link

pic.twitter.com/f68aRQ1Bxm

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) September 18, 2024

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:40 (one month ago) link

Is it ghoulish to point out that a lot of the 2020 GOP cohort succumbed to Covid and pandemic-adjacent conditions if my own mom was one of them?

guillotine vogue (suzy), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:45 (one month ago) link

I looked it up, and Stephens was actually calling for Biden to step down two weeks *before* the June debate -- but he wanted him replaced with Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer.

jaymc, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:46 (one month ago) link

jpg, shared on bsky, from a paywalled wsj story. I want real world consequences for Vance and the rest of these fucks.
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nehvjrqlcz766irejep43jnw/bafkreif7pyea7nzwchvpfz5ui77z346vfvtetrwfbwzmd7rklm67vdw2hi@jpeg

Judge Judy, executioner (stevie), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:46 (one month ago) link

Miss Sassy is actually the nickname for her gay son Andrew.

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:49 (one month ago) link

legit actual lol

Judge Judy, executioner (stevie), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 12:54 (one month ago) link

I hope this shit follows Vance forever.

jmm, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 13:05 (one month ago) link

like a tough little dingleberry that he just can't unstick

"Lunch" is self-explanatory (bernard snowy), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 13:35 (one month ago) link

Is this the lady who started this shit? Or just someone who heard Vance talking about this and started making assumptions?

frogbs, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 14:04 (one month ago) link

that wsj story

Kim Kimberly, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 14:05 (one month ago) link

no, this is the woman who started it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/us/springfield-haitians-pets-facebook-rumor.html

jaymc, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 14:15 (one month ago) link

Yikes. Suspect this is why Harris' and Dems' rhetoric on immigration is harsher than in past campaigns

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4885895-mass-deportation-immigration-poll/

Pierre Delecto, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 14:56 (one month ago) link

concerning.

c u (crüt), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:01 (one month ago) link

Yet half those people have never even interacted with a non-legal citizen

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:02 (one month ago) link

that's disturbing af

i listened to an interesting podcast recently about the children's book "if you give a mouse a cookie" and how it has been used to indoctrinate people to the right wing concept of reducing/eliminating/stigmatizing the social safety net.

Piggy Lepton (La Lechera), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:04 (one month ago) link

i wonder how many americans have internalized the message that "no one deserves a handout"
seems like a lot from that poll!!

Piggy Lepton (La Lechera), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:05 (one month ago) link

It’s because the Ds have ceded the point to the Republicans and not hit back with a strong defense of immigrants.

O 'Tis Redding (Boring, Maryland), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:05 (one month ago) link

yup

lag∞n, Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:06 (one month ago) link

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3FDgF5BNHWfhJxQStLtRZ0?si=42171a1c9c9f4eaf
here's the podcast, it's short

Piggy Lepton (La Lechera), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:07 (one month ago) link

I’m more disturbed why Harris/Walz have been missing from this whole Ohio thing. Seems like a great time to defend immigrants!

O 'Tis Redding (Boring, Maryland), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:07 (one month ago) link

Should they do a rally there like Trumps plans to do? Seems lame

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:12 (one month ago) link

It’s because the Ds have ceded the point to the Republicans and not hit back with a strong defense of immigrants.

― O 'Tis Redding (Boring, Maryland)

otm

the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 18 September 2024 15:13 (one month ago) link


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