US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

see thread title

jd vance says the things about jokes that we're all thinking but are afraid to say!

jeezus biden won't stop talking. let kamala talk please. i know i know IT'S NOT A JOKE.

i think he had 25 "folks" and 25 "it's not a joke".

that's number one number two

If you already know who you are voting for, why would you waste your time watching political speeches? It’s nonsense. Anything noteworthy will immediately be clipped online. Nothing is going to change anyone’s mind.

i have problems apparently. i haven't really been feeling the nfl lately. i guess i just feel like following something. tim walz was good today. all union gung ho. they are all in on the union gung ho. i keep waiting for walz to bust out with "BROTHERS AND SISTERS BROTHERS AND SISTERS IT'S TIME TO...KICK OUT THE JAMS MOTHERFUCKERS". if he did that in a detroit union hall i think people would lose their shit.

Kick out the Vance MFers

Rama lama fafafa poll-lead reducer

brother dont i know it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWh2QC4W4AEWsWy?format=jpg&name=medium

now here's a scoop

listen bud cornpop is my friend and theres nothing you or anyone else can do to change that

We used to have Scoop

BUT ITS OVER NOWWWW

Not many posts this month...long weekend? Nothing happening? Or: the early rush of excitement has levelled off, some anxiety creeping in?

Long weekend, no anxiety yet.

No one pays attention to the Presidential race until after, uh, yesterday

Lolz at mark g

Anyway it's all over:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/09/03/kamala-harris-beats-donald-trump-us-election-poll/

saw some thing predicting whoever won PA had a 90%+ chance of taking the whole thing

Basically if Harris wins PA she can afford to lose most of the other swing states

(xpost) Your hero agrees.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmCYKLsk/nate.jpg

Anecdotal indicator: In 2008 and 2012 when I drove around North Philly there were Obama signs everywhere. Thus far I don't see too many Harris signs. Maybe too early.

Right, the point is, these are all correlated, so a candidate who wins one is disproportionately likely to win all three

vote power index, love me some vpi, gimme vpi alerts on my phone

Apparently signs keep selling out, was told there won’t be more until sometime this month.

Signs, signs--everywhere a sign.

(xpost) Your hero agrees.

― clemenza, Tuesday, September 3, 2024 12:44 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

that was the thing i saw lol

Just fuck up vote certs in georgia pa and mich then? mich has made that a little harder by law and has a dem gov, dunno about pa hit it seems like shapiro has some authority over it, and ga seems like a playground with a gop gov. def start by fucking up ga.

https://www.votebeat.org/2024/08/22/presidential-election-certification-delays-trump-republicans-disputes-georgia-board-rule/

Ah but Georgia's governor hates Trump

he does but he also supports him. that said I think GA would be foolish to allow the sort of fuck ups he pushed for last time this time around.

the good thing re: PA is that it's a big union state and unions really dislike Vance. also I don't think Trump palling around with Elon Musk is gonna be doing him any favors

saw some thing predicting whoever won PA had a 90%+ chance of taking the whole thing

― lag∞n, Tuesday, September 3, 2024 12:38 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Basically if Harris wins PA she can afford to lose most of the other swing states

― There’s a Monster in my Vance (President Keyes), Tuesday, September 3, 2024 12:39 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

first point is true, winning PA makes you very likely to win, but only because winning PA is correlated with winning a bunch of other states. it does not mean you can lose most of the other all the other states. and winning PA does not *cause* you to win the states.

the tourist shop near my office has been selling trump t-shirts since the conviction/assassination. no Biden shirts. they added Harris t-shirts last week. I've seen enough.

how many of these did they have
https://res.cloudinary.com/teepublic/image/private/s--NyV2QroO--/t_Resized%20Artwork/c_crop,x_10,y_10/c_fit,w_470/c_crop,g_north_west,h_626,w_470,x_0,y_0/g_north_west,u_upload:v1571669489:production:blanks:jaeeqnv4r8crsxalh03n,x_-395,y_-325/b_rgb:eeeeee/c_limit,f_auto,h_630,q_auto:good:420,w_630/v1723928254/production/designs/64600815_1.jpg

is Russia bad now it's so confusing

If Harris wins PA along with MI, and WI (where she's ahead) she will have 270 EVs and can afford to lose AZ, NV, NC and GA, which are "most" of the swing states.

and its hard to envision her winning PA without winning both WI and MI

Likewise, if Trump wins PA, along with NC and GA he would have 270 and could afford to lose MI, WI, NV and AZ

sorry I mean either NV or AZ

I want a “childless cat dad for Kamala” shirt

As RFK Jr. fights to get off ballot in some states, his team files to get him on Mississippi’s
https://mississippitoday.org/2024/09/03/kennedy-ballot-mississippi-trump-rfk-jr-swing-states/

idgi

He seems to want to be on the ballot only for states Trump has locked up...as to why, though, ditto--not sure what it accomplishes. (Maybe he thinks he'll take votes away from Harris in such states, thus narrowing the popular vote?)

He has some dumb idea about getting 5% nationally so his "party" will get federal funds. But dropping out of the race tends to shrink your vote total.

Trump is throwing all of his thoughts and prayers into GA and PA
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F089ec98c-45f2-4987-b826-358cb96404f2_1279x1237.png

A contrary opinion (I guess): Dems, afflicted with PTSD since losing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016, think and act (right) as if they're battleground states; but, really, wasn't 2016 a fluke? So long as they keep their governors and state legislatures blue, they've got those states. I realize Trump sings that siren's song for rural Pennsylvanians and those from former industrial districts, but is it that much more compelling eight years later?

With the union endorsements, its blue governor, and Walz on the ticket, I tend to think, "Nah, they got Pennsylvania so long as they don't get cocky."

yeah there isn't much evidence that PA is really in play, the thing that worries me is that Fetterman barely won despite his opponent being fucking Dr. Oz, but who knows maybe they figured out how much Fetterman sucks before the rest of us

Yeah. Also: political media, in an attempt to keep boredom at day, keep talking up the Blue Wall.

I think WI is stronger for Harris than PA, but I don't know if I have evidence for that beyond vibes.

are they all singing from the same sheet of music?

Unfortunately the only sheet music licenseable to the Trump campaign was “Bawitdaba.”

They aren't trying to gotv because they know they've hit their ceiling of Trump supporters and they are just going to redo the coup anyway. Why waste money on grassroots when you could spend it on more lawyers & judges?

Sounds like a great strategy, nobody will see it coming

I still maintain that “children react to Trump” videos are a fantastic early October concept for the Harris campaign.

Or teenagers! Or first time voters! You know what I mean

“Skate punks react to JD Vance”

President Joe Biden has made clear his desire for an immediate halt to the fighting. Asked at the White House on Monday whether he was aware that Israel was preparing a limited incursion into Lebanon, he said: “I’m more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a cease-fire now.”

"I'm more aware than you might know" for Oct. thread title

Being "comfortable" with a ceasefire is, how do you say?, leading from behind

the rest of the article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/09/30/us-israel-lebanon-hezbollah/) is about how the biden administration says they're doing a great job pushing israel toward a cease-fire,

“We of course continue to support a cease-fire,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Monday. “But at the same time, there are a couple other things that are true as well-

while also supplying the weapons for the operation, and having nothing to say when the special military operation "limited" invasion, for some reason that no one knows the answer to, targets palestinian refugee camps (https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/10/1/israel-attacks-palestinian-refugee-camp-in-lebanon)

for some reason that no one knows the answer to

and sorry, probably not an effective use of internet irony voice there. i think everyone knows the answer to why palestinian refugee camps were targeted in southern lebanon

"I'm more aware than you might know" for Oct. thread title

― There’s a Monster in my Vance (President Keyes), Tuesday, October 1, 2024 9:02 AM (thirty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if you heard the quote in context, you'd understand why he phrased it this way

oops

Being "comfortable" with a ceasefire is, how do you say?, leading from behind

― There’s a Monster in my Vance (President Keyes), Tuesday, October 1, 2024 9:03 AM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

^^ responding to this

not that i disagree about the substance but just sayin

biden asked if he’s comfortable with a ground incursion in lebanon:
“i’m comfortable with them stopping. we should have a ceasefire now.”

impact: zero pic.twitter.com/Hx1BeRyo9e

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) September 30, 2024

budo, what am I missing?

I guess because Biden was reacting to the journalist's use of "comfortable."

It reads a lot worse than it sounds imo.

I guess. Biden still pretending they're working on a peaceful solution is p repugnant at this point

the opposite actually? it reads like he’s supportive of a cease-fire. it sounds and looks like an old man saying something he hasn’t thought through that is plainly contradicted by his own actions, and then storming off

i think that it's pretty clear that both biden and harris (and their administration) support israel's wars. they, and pretty much every single person in national u.s. politics, on a 'bipartisan' level, completely blew any leverage they might have on the situation by repeatedly saying shit like u.s. support for israel is "unwavering" and that we will "always" stand by israel, etc etc, coupled with many years of approving arms deals ensuring that the good hard working people in american weapons plants can profit off their wars.

i also think that months/years straight of incredibly vague and pointlessly/logically triangulating statements (see: any harris statement regarding gaza) is equivalent to a clear Go-Ahead signal to those perpetrating the genocide

and yeah yeah, i'm in missouri and i'm voting for harris, because somehow, there's a worse alternative and that's what i'm being asked to choose between. it's possible to both vote for the democrat and also recognize that, even before they become a historic president, they're already making a gigantic fucking mistake

xp yeah i was just commenting on the rhetorical device, which imo intensifies the use of "comfortable" beyond what it normally means

not a defense of biden by any means. this is pathetically too little, too late

while i'm on it, on "the economy", the reason most people of means think the economy is great is because the stock market looks like this

https://i.imgur.com/VzDDdVz.png

and that's what a ton of people's 401k's and retirement livelihood depend on. some might have argued, as we destroyed the national safety net and pensions over the last 50+ years, that it was a mistake to tie people's livelihoods to the financial (not actual) wellbeing of corporations. but it's too late now, and because of this a lot of people are very happy with the economy because every time they check their retirement savings it's gone up by 10% or more, year over year. having been both the person who has the retirement savings tied to the stock market going up year after year, and also the person who blew their entire savings to paint more (last month i bought what might be my last resupply of oil paints and the purchase was more than 20% of my entire bank account), i can see how some people can say "the economy is actually doing well" while others might say "actually the economy fucking sucks because i get paid $15 an hour and the only food near my work costs like fucking $12 for lunch and that's if you don't get chips and a drink". it's always astounding to me when people on either side of that "the economy is doing well/ fucking sucks" divide can't expand their imaginations to understand the other's situation

I mean, to Ta-Nehisi Coates' point: Palestinians have no voices on American television with the exception of 10-minute bits on Saturday afternoons on MSNBC. Holocaust guilt, stereotypes about Arabs, residual fear of 1979-era Iran, our military-industrial complex, and expert lobbyists (including Bibi when he's out of office) have shaped the entire American sociopolitical discourse.

and yeah yeah, i'm in missouri and i'm voting for harris, because somehow, there's a worse alternative and that's what i'm being asked to choose between. it's possible to both vote for the democrat and also recognize that, even before they become a historic president, they're already making a gigantic fucking mistake

― z_tbd, Tuesday, October 1, 2024 11:59 AM (three minutes ago)

trump has said he would consider invading mexico to secure the border. it strikes me as not great for a D admin to back Israel doing the same thing with a similar justification right before an election they could definitely lose

Israel invites a lot of poorly thought out analogies but that one is spectacularly bad

dude fuck off

My point is conceding political ground to fascists is bad

Whether maga or Israeli

yeah that’s what gabbneb disagrees with

I really do want to be clear though: I’m not making an “analogy”

yeah that’s what gabbneb disagrees with

whenever there's any question about your status as the site's dumbest poster, you open your mouth you remove all doubt

Time for Green Day to wake up

Mods...?

seriously, haven't we gone through this three or four times already?

U.S. Politics, October 2024 -- “They smear because they fear”

Yeah, I had held off banning PD because I wasn't 100% sure they were gabbneb, but 99.9% is enough.