rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

the problem with their averages is that for many states, they're only polling infrequently at this point compared to during the height of the race. Arizona, for example, 60% of the polls included in the average are over a month and a half old (though the one from April wasn't good either, lol). they have value but not as much as the Federal polls at this point, but of course that will reverse itself when state polling picks up after conventions/etc.

still not good, no, but...holding my breath

stink of 538 forewarning: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leads-swing-state-polls-tied-biden-nationally/story?id=109506070

And I don't believe Trump's ahead in Michigan or Wisconsin.

The national poll is garbage.

Our averages also show Trump leading in most swing states, though there is enough uncertainty that Biden could easily be ahead in enough to win the Electoral College.

lol ok that's that then

and

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch/story?id=108062780

which kind of states the polls might be noisy at this point. I think Kennedy is fucking everything up tbh

So is this guy full of shit or actually clever?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election

He's trotted out every four years and whatever he's selling people are buying.

Roffle:

“Without the Gipper, forget it,” Lichtman says. “George Bush is about as charismatic as a New Jersey shopping centre on a Sunday morning. Atwater looks me in the eye, breathes a huge sigh of relief, and says, thank you, Professor Lichtman. And the rest is history.”

good news is that Dems seem to be overperforming in every single special election, when you factor those in + primary results...you know, situations where people are actually voting...there is a lot for Trump to worry about. idk how those necessarily translate into a general nationwide election though.

the thing i take from these polls is that it's going to be close, and yes, roughly 1 out of every 2 people of voting age are completely out of their mind and are willing to vote for the fascist. if biden-mentum takes hold it means that maybe 1 out of every 10 people who want to vote for the fascist will decide to stay home, and, i don't know, maybe read the wikipedia article about fascism instead. the special elections where the gop gets their ass kicked are fun but it's still like 4 out of 10 people who love to vote for the fascist

those special elections are also all highly motivated voters, the general election will be a much larger pool that includes a lot of less frequent voters

Every Biden or Trump voter in November will be highly motivated. I can’t envision many “undecided voters” flipping a coin and saying “enh, whatever…”

the general election will be a much larger pool that includes a lot of less frequent voters

Yeah, but some of the more "worrying" recent polls have been of people who didn't vote in 2016 or 2020. Who the fuck cares what those people think?

https://i.imgur.com/wojg2j7.png

maybe this is just blind hope but I feel like the people on the margins will be a lot more motivated to vote against Trump than for him. Biden has a lot of accomplishments he can run on, while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime. also he will be even more annoying than he was in 2020 somehow

the thing i take from these polls is that it's going to be close

Not that you need the polls for this, just the 2020 results. Tiny margins for Biden in the swing states, easily lost over such matters as gas prices and the amount of murdered Palestinians. GOP candidates other than Trump would probably lead Biden at this point, probably by more distance. Not sure the polls even really reflect those situations all in all.

I continue to believe the post-Dobbs environment is like D+5 and Biden will win Florida on the coattails of the abortion referendum

while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime

oof, when you put it like that it does make it seem like he's gonna win

someone brought it up in the right-wing brainworms thread, but the common conspiracy theory is that COVID is going to "come back" during election time to "ban in-person voting". never mind that it never left and we've had significant waves with Biden in office already, I'm wondering if either of these things will start to happen w/ frequency as we get closer to Sept/Oct:

1) inventing lockdown out of thin air - people rush to Twitter to claim their city/town/state is locked down, either by misappropriating something a public official says (i.e. "if you're stick, stay home", and omitting the first three words), or just outright lying ("I'm trapped in my house right now because I'm afraid of being arrested by Biden, have been here for a week")

2) if there's a wave at the time, pretending to care about COVID for the first time and posting things like death tolls/hospitalizations, claiming Biden is letting people die but at the same time arguing that mail-in voting shouldn't be legal, but that Ivermectin be mandatory for all citizens to take before voting

Sweet!!

I am currently locked down by my boss telling me I have to stay in this office until 5pm.

"while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime"

Trump is running mainly on not being Biden who is the ultimate evil and destroying this country and the world. which is what Trumpers and a lot of regular Republicans actually believe. I don't think a lot of Democrats realize this. It's not about the border or whatever. It's legit about good vs evil for millions of people. which is scary obviously.

I think Democrats feel that way about for the most part

I am currently locked down by my boss telling me I have to stay in this office until 5pm.

― Never fight uphill 'o me, boys! (President Keyes), Monday, April 29, 2024 2:03 PM bookmarkflaglink

that's the spirit!

It'll teach you discipline

it will teach you how to live under the iron whip of Barron Trump.

BDSM Trump

flag post for unwanted mental imagery

(not really. it's a verbal flag, or vf to save time)

how many yards do we have to march back?

back to the glory days of the 1950s and early 60s, before the longhairs ruined everything, and when people knew how to treat the founding fathers with some respect!

Of course, most of those longhairs grew up and continue to ruin things by going MAGA.

Long Haired Freeper People

Both sides now chanting “F***” Joe Biden” pic.twitter.com/Jbt7TU1b9b

— Maven Navarro (@MavenNavarro1) May 1, 2024

doesn’t feel like a great sign that the most politically engaged folks on both sides hate his guts

He said he would bring us together.

That has to be confusing for all the MAGA protesters who think Joe has a lock on the pinkos of America.

back to the glory days of the 1950s and early 60s, before the longhairs ruined everything, and when people knew how to treat the founding fathers with some respect!

Cool, back when taxes on the rich were 90%, the New Deal was in full effect, and unions held significant sway in the country.

😵‍💫

Long Haired Freeper People

God, some Oliver Anthony updating "Signs" for Trump people seems like an easy payday.

And the sign said
"Anybody caught without a mask
Will be shot on sight"

don't wanna be doing the Jacob Wohl "hipster coffee shop" thing but I do go into cardrooms to play poker every month or so which is a haven for middle aged white guys who love to complain about everything. it's the only safe space for conservatives that I go to really, where people just openly talk about how much they hate Democrats. it's obnoxious but kinda interesting to hear up close how these people think. anyway, they blame Dems for everything, and also think Biden is senile and will be "swapped out" any day now. same shit they always say. however I did notice that they are increasingly getting sick of Trump as well, saying stuff like "he needs to learn when to shut the fuck up". one guy is still burned up by the "I prefer the guys who weren't captured" comment directed at John McCain. another guy has apparently gone to "all" the Wisconsin Trump rallies but skipped this recent one because "he just says the same things over and over".

idk if this means anything exactly but the Republicans could have an enthusiasm problem on their hands. despite what you see in the media and in online spaces I don't think your average Trump voter is exactly willing to lay their lives down for him. they're so good at astroturfing this shit making it sound like there's a "silent majority" out there of Trump stans but when actual organized events happen barely anyone bothers to show up. we know that Republican voters would rather vote for Hitler than a Democrat but I think that's really all Trump has going for him right now. also the fact that he continues to insist 2020 is rigged might supress his own vote. like the thing they kept saying was "who cares, Biden's gonna win again", implying that "they" were gonna fix it no matter what. lmao if that actually convinces people to stay home this time around.

they are the drake stans to biden's kendrick

He's literally bringing nothing more to the table that he didn't already serve in '16 and '20. I can't be the only one who saw him speak at the court about the college riots a couple weeks ago and think he's trying to turn it into a new George Floyd/BLM situation to run on.

Easy to see why. Resentment toward "rioting college punks" is an issue that inflames more passions than "eggs cost too damn much" or "if I've said it once, I've said it a million times, that election four years ago was rigged".

the BLM protests were way more widespread and resulted in a lot of shit getting broken, these seem to be happening mostly at college campuses which you know they never go near

We're only six months out from the election and I'm just gonna say that with *all this stuff* going on — bad vibes everywhere — I'm sliding fully into the "Trump is gonna win" camp. I hate it and don't want it, but if he's still sitting where he is poll-wise even with everything that's out there against him, it seems to me that he's kind of solidly camped out in the "challenger vs. an unpopular incumbent" category, which is sadly somewhat impervious to the actual qualities of the challenger. This is going to be much more a referendum on the status quo as people perceive than it is a referendum on Trump, and that strongly favors him.

Happy to be wrong! But I feel more strongly that he's going to win right now than I did at any point in 2016 or 2020. It's gonna suck.

personally I am feeling a bit more optimistic, another HCR C&P here:

Yesterday, FreedomWorks, the right-wing organization that was backed by the Koch family at its start in 2004 and that was behind the Tea Party movement, abruptly shut down. FreedomWorks attacked Democratic measures for business regulation and social welfare because it embraced libertarian principles. Its revenue had dropped by half since 2022, its president, Adam Brandon, told Luke Mullins of Politico. But in the end, what did the organization in was the party’s split over Trump.

That split was crystal clear in Tuesday’s Republican primary election in Indiana. Trump won that election, but with only 78.3% of the vote. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign in early March and has not campaigned since, won 21.7%.

Before the Indiana primary, on May 2 political statistician Tom Bonier debunked the idea that Haley’s support came from Democratic-leaning voters flooding the primary vote to hurt Trump. Crunching the numbers in North Carolina showed that Haley voters there “were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg[istered Republicans]). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Ind[ependent]s vs 97% of [Republicans]), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind[ependent Republican] primary voters vs 50% of [Republicans]).” In short, he wrote, “[e]very indicator suggests these Independents voting in [Republican] primaries are more likely [Republican] voters. They just don't like Trump.”

Political commentator Chris Cillizza today called attention to the numbers that landed before Tuesday. On March 12, Haley won 13.2% of the vote in Georgia (or 78,000 votes). On March 19 she won 17.8% of the vote in Arizona (111,000 votes), 13.9%* of the vote in Florida (155,000 votes), and 14.4% of the vote in Ohio (161,000 votes). On April 2 she won 12.8% of the votes in Wisconsin (77,000 votes). And on April 23, Haley won 16.6% of the votes in Pennsylvania (158,000 votes).

If Biden picks up even one in five of these votes, Cillizza noted, “it matters bigly.”

Happy for some optimism! But boy I've really given up on hoping for any relief from Republicans of any stripe.

Three high-level Republicans this week told media they would not vote for Trump, helping to pave an off-ramp for other Republicans. Former House speaker Paul Ryan told Yahoo Finance that he would write in another Republican rather than vote for Trump. “Character is too important to me,” he said.

Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, also cited character when she said she would not vote for Trump. “I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I would absolutely consider voting for Joe Biden this upcoming November because he will not seek to destroy our nation [or] our Constitution, and he has the statesman character that we need in an elected official.”

Georgia’s former lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan went further on Monday night, endorsing Biden, whom he had called in an op-ed a “decent person I disagree with on policy,” over Trump, whom he described as “a criminal defendant without a moral compass.” “Sometimes the best way to learn your lesson is to get beat, and Donald Trump needs to get beat. We need to move on as a party. We need to move on as a country,” he said."

the fact that that tea party group is shutting down is evidence that there is no market for what they are selling, and the number of voters rendered politically homeless by the GOP move from small government to racism/populism is too small for anyone to care about, except the likes of chris cillizza (who is now a management consultant btw).

the rejection of trump personally by a small but significant number of voters who are otherwise reliable republicans is a different thing, and has the potential to matter a lot, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that it's a policy disagreement or a durable "split" that will continue after he drops dead.

the number of gopers for whom "this time it's finally personal" is like 5 and they all on tv.