rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

its supposed to be unpronouncable. you know like the thing Prince did

fake polls!

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-poll-actual-voters-2024-presidential-election-1892723

"Actual voters"? What about the bots?

this doesn't seem encouraging for him

Lmfao Suburban Delaware County, PA (mail ballots):

Trump - 54% Haley 46%

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

How on earth the GOP isn't completely freaking out about this is beyond me.

— M L C (@ChiCyph80) April 24, 2024

i thought haley quit

I think that’s the point.

“dropping out of the race” doesn’t take you off the ballot once you are on it

anyway I realized yesterday that I wasn't really worried about rogue jurors because even if some of them voted Trump for six weeks they were gonna see the version of Trump that we all see. that once they get away from the propaganda and actually have to spend time around the actual guy they'd realize he's a sleepy old man who does nothing but whine all day as he is confronted with mounds and mounds of evidence of his criminal activity. obviously FOX News tries to hide that side of the man. you almost wonder if they have no notion of what Trump is actually like. I mean how many people do they catch walking out of his rallies halfway through because he's just rambling and making shit up? how do they not know this is what he does and has always done?

maybe there's been a bit of this effect on the nation as a whole? obviously it'll fade after the trial even if he is found guilty (and I think he will) but if he has another one after this and it goes the same way, idk I think he really is cooked then.

like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold...that's the sort of shit Trump would be ruthless about in a political opponent and basically how he won the presidency

Someone should give him a cozy blanket

haley got 150k votes in the florida primary yesterday. the primary was closed (GOP) only, and voting began after haley withdrew. probably nothing.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, March 20, 2024 11:08 AM (one month ago) bookmarkflaglink

Pennsylvania is also a closed primary. probably nothing.

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

For a second, I thought that was *Howard* Dean (I assume it's Dean Phillips)

“like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold”

like how is this not an entire national ad campaign with dark brandon glasses logos i’m not even kidding. i mean, it’s horrible, but mandatory.

obviously a lot of those Haley voters are gonna vote for him anyway but idk it seems different from the usual dynamic where its a difference in political views, Trump is just extremely unlikeable right now

all told she got 16.5% of the vote which is not bad for someone who dropped out a month ago. wonder if anything like that's happened before and what that meant for the end result. one in six GOP primary voters got off their ass to explicitly vote *against* him and he's gonna need pretty much all of them in the end in order to have a chance. doesn't seem like an ideal situation

FWIW, today was the 4th anniversary of this presser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

xpost I recall Paul Tsongas doing well in a primary (NY?) in 1992 after he had dropped out. There was a brief media flurry about how it was bad news for Clinton.

I am tired of this man!

get RID of man with this one weird trick!

*years of proceedings during and at the end of which he is still ubiquitous, and has even expanded into your cerebral cortex*

but yeah, there are legal, procedural, and electoral ways to remove this guy and key figures don’t wanna let that happen. so in the end, only the grim reaper will do it and tbh even he seems a bit cowed to my eye

I feel like Trump fatigue is a good thing to run on. Just 30 seconds of him being an ass and then "We are so tired of this man."

I suspect that's a big part of what lost him the race in 2020, especially after that first debate. I think he will probably somehow be even more annoying this time around. and since he will never shut the fuck up about his court cases and the fact that he believes he won 2020 I feel like the stakes of this election are gonna be pretty apparent. like I know a lot of idiot moderates in 2020 didn't really believe he was gonna actually make any noise about the election, that it was just bluster and the media's dislike of Trump, now its definitely starting to feel like a Trump victory would mean America is over as we know it

I feel like a lot rides on this trial, given it's the only one he'll face before the election. He's never going to be found not guilty - but if he can somehow engineer a mistrial, that would be huge, maybe legitimizing in some independents' eyes the whole witch hunt narrative

like I know a lot of idiot moderates in 2020 didn't really believe he was gonna actually make any noise about the election

was it during an impeachment that they interviewed a former trump employee/insider who was like “uh, no he won’t leave office peacefully, it’s not in him.” and i thought “ha, this old lady ain’t holding back.” lol she tried to warn everyone

this recollection seems so nutty here, even for me— am i confabulating this?

yea being a convicted felon I think actually would change a few minds

idk how useful polls are at this point but fucking yikes

RCP SWING STATES POLLING AVERAGE

WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump 49.3% (+1.8)
🟦 Biden 47.5%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump 48.3% (+0.6)
🟦 Biden 47.7%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump 49.3% (+5)
🟦 Biden 44.3%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump 46.3% (+1.3)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 48.8% (+4.8)
🟦 Biden 44%
.… pic.twitter.com/LUegdIK2Da

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 28, 2024

the problem with their averages is that for many states, they're only polling infrequently at this point compared to during the height of the race. Arizona, for example, 60% of the polls included in the average are over a month and a half old (though the one from April wasn't good either, lol). they have value but not as much as the Federal polls at this point, but of course that will reverse itself when state polling picks up after conventions/etc.

still not good, no, but...holding my breath

stink of 538 forewarning: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leads-swing-state-polls-tied-biden-nationally/story?id=109506070

And I don't believe Trump's ahead in Michigan or Wisconsin.

The national poll is garbage.

Our averages also show Trump leading in most swing states, though there is enough uncertainty that Biden could easily be ahead in enough to win the Electoral College.

lol ok that's that then

and

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch/story?id=108062780

which kind of states the polls might be noisy at this point. I think Kennedy is fucking everything up tbh

So is this guy full of shit or actually clever?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election

He's trotted out every four years and whatever he's selling people are buying.

Roffle:

“Without the Gipper, forget it,” Lichtman says. “George Bush is about as charismatic as a New Jersey shopping centre on a Sunday morning. Atwater looks me in the eye, breathes a huge sigh of relief, and says, thank you, Professor Lichtman. And the rest is history.”

good news is that Dems seem to be overperforming in every single special election, when you factor those in + primary results...you know, situations where people are actually voting...there is a lot for Trump to worry about. idk how those necessarily translate into a general nationwide election though.

the thing i take from these polls is that it's going to be close, and yes, roughly 1 out of every 2 people of voting age are completely out of their mind and are willing to vote for the fascist. if biden-mentum takes hold it means that maybe 1 out of every 10 people who want to vote for the fascist will decide to stay home, and, i don't know, maybe read the wikipedia article about fascism instead. the special elections where the gop gets their ass kicked are fun but it's still like 4 out of 10 people who love to vote for the fascist

those special elections are also all highly motivated voters, the general election will be a much larger pool that includes a lot of less frequent voters

Every Biden or Trump voter in November will be highly motivated. I can’t envision many “undecided voters” flipping a coin and saying “enh, whatever…”

the general election will be a much larger pool that includes a lot of less frequent voters

Yeah, but some of the more "worrying" recent polls have been of people who didn't vote in 2016 or 2020. Who the fuck cares what those people think?

https://i.imgur.com/wojg2j7.png

maybe this is just blind hope but I feel like the people on the margins will be a lot more motivated to vote against Trump than for him. Biden has a lot of accomplishments he can run on, while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime. also he will be even more annoying than he was in 2020 somehow

the thing i take from these polls is that it's going to be close

Not that you need the polls for this, just the 2020 results. Tiny margins for Biden in the swing states, easily lost over such matters as gas prices and the amount of murdered Palestinians. GOP candidates other than Trump would probably lead Biden at this point, probably by more distance. Not sure the polls even really reflect those situations all in all.

I continue to believe the post-Dobbs environment is like D+5 and Biden will win Florida on the coattails of the abortion referendum

while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime

oof, when you put it like that it does make it seem like he's gonna win

someone brought it up in the right-wing brainworms thread, but the common conspiracy theory is that COVID is going to "come back" during election time to "ban in-person voting". never mind that it never left and we've had significant waves with Biden in office already, I'm wondering if either of these things will start to happen w/ frequency as we get closer to Sept/Oct:

1) inventing lockdown out of thin air - people rush to Twitter to claim their city/town/state is locked down, either by misappropriating something a public official says (i.e. "if you're stick, stay home", and omitting the first three words), or just outright lying ("I'm trapped in my house right now because I'm afraid of being arrested by Biden, have been here for a week")

2) if there's a wave at the time, pretending to care about COVID for the first time and posting things like death tolls/hospitalizations, claiming Biden is letting people die but at the same time arguing that mail-in voting shouldn't be legal, but that Ivermectin be mandatory for all citizens to take before voting

Sweet!!

I am currently locked down by my boss telling me I have to stay in this office until 5pm.

"while Trump is running mainly on being able to commit unlimited crime"

Trump is running mainly on not being Biden who is the ultimate evil and destroying this country and the world. which is what Trumpers and a lot of regular Republicans actually believe. I don't think a lot of Democrats realize this. It's not about the border or whatever. It's legit about good vs evil for millions of people. which is scary obviously.

I think Democrats feel that way about for the most part

I am currently locked down by my boss telling me I have to stay in this office until 5pm.

― Never fight uphill 'o me, boys! (President Keyes), Monday, April 29, 2024 2:03 PM bookmarkflaglink

that's the spirit!

It'll teach you discipline