rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I'm not saying don't worry be happy. But having watched how things have played out since 2020, I'm way less persuaded we're on the verge of authoritarian takeover at the national level than I was in 2021 in the immediate aftermath of Jan. 6.

My concerns about authoritarian takeovers at the state level in red states has only increased, however.

Yeah I wouldn’t be so sure the Stephen Millers and Christian Nationalists and forced birth fetishists wont get their way.

They'll obviously be way more catered to under Trump than Biden. He'll issue a bunch of executive orders to make them happy, some of which will survive court challenges. It will be bad! He definitely shouldn't be president again. But he'll also be a lame duck immediately, his popularity ratings will never get close to 50 percent and probably will fall lower than they did in his first term as everyone remembers what it's like to have him as president, and a whole bunch of people in both parties are going to be jockeying to be next in line from day one.

Christian Nationalists in particular face the perennial problem that only like 20 percent of the country wants to live in their demented theocracy.

The prize is always 4 more years to pick SC judges, though, right?

I did take some solace that, in the article about how the Heritage Foundation hired the trick-shot specialist who became Trump's bodyman, as a means to shore up "We'll be in charge and ready to go if he wins", it mentions that Trump gets big mad every time anyone suggests they're going to "in charge of" the next presidency.

Stephen Miller is a dude I find genuinely terrifying, like all of Trump's mouthpieces come off like cartoon villains but Miller is a very specific type and that's someone who is a henchman for a literal demon. I couldn't be in the same room as him.

Nor can his hair.

Stephen miller won't see that post Alfred, but I will

if the last few days have taught us anything it's that you never know who's gonna see your posts

few days on ILX, or in jury selection?

lol I was also wondering, I assume the latter

If they could match up ilx usernames with their owners they'd disqualify the lot of us, wholesale.

"Is it true that you wrote that Donald Trump was a 'Dud'?"

had a daydream yesterday where i was one of the people being considered for the jury and i suddenly standup and throw my chair at trump and he dies

and then i become president

"By our count you wished death on Mr. Trump a total of 103 times across the years 2017 to the present. Isn't that true, Mister, uh, Frogbs."

I still think I can be fair and impartial though

"Indeed, Mr. Frog-bis." "Please, it's Frog B.S."

"Mr. Frog-bis is my father"

"Mistrial declared until we can get the pronunciation clarified."

its supposed to be unpronouncable. you know like the thing Prince did

fake polls!

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-poll-actual-voters-2024-presidential-election-1892723

"Actual voters"? What about the bots?

this doesn't seem encouraging for him

Lmfao Suburban Delaware County, PA (mail ballots):

Trump - 54% Haley 46%

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

How on earth the GOP isn't completely freaking out about this is beyond me.

— M L C (@ChiCyph80) April 24, 2024

i thought haley quit

I think that’s the point.

“dropping out of the race” doesn’t take you off the ballot once you are on it

anyway I realized yesterday that I wasn't really worried about rogue jurors because even if some of them voted Trump for six weeks they were gonna see the version of Trump that we all see. that once they get away from the propaganda and actually have to spend time around the actual guy they'd realize he's a sleepy old man who does nothing but whine all day as he is confronted with mounds and mounds of evidence of his criminal activity. obviously FOX News tries to hide that side of the man. you almost wonder if they have no notion of what Trump is actually like. I mean how many people do they catch walking out of his rallies halfway through because he's just rambling and making shit up? how do they not know this is what he does and has always done?

maybe there's been a bit of this effect on the nation as a whole? obviously it'll fade after the trial even if he is found guilty (and I think he will) but if he has another one after this and it goes the same way, idk I think he really is cooked then.

like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold...that's the sort of shit Trump would be ruthless about in a political opponent and basically how he won the presidency

Someone should give him a cozy blanket

haley got 150k votes in the florida primary yesterday. the primary was closed (GOP) only, and voting began after haley withdrew. probably nothing.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, March 20, 2024 11:08 AM (one month ago) bookmarkflaglink

Pennsylvania is also a closed primary. probably nothing.

Biden - 97% Dean - 3%

For a second, I thought that was *Howard* Dean (I assume it's Dean Phillips)

“like falling asleep and farting in court, then waking up and complaining that he's too cold”

like how is this not an entire national ad campaign with dark brandon glasses logos i’m not even kidding. i mean, it’s horrible, but mandatory.

obviously a lot of those Haley voters are gonna vote for him anyway but idk it seems different from the usual dynamic where its a difference in political views, Trump is just extremely unlikeable right now

all told she got 16.5% of the vote which is not bad for someone who dropped out a month ago. wonder if anything like that's happened before and what that meant for the end result. one in six GOP primary voters got off their ass to explicitly vote *against* him and he's gonna need pretty much all of them in the end in order to have a chance. doesn't seem like an ideal situation

FWIW, today was the 4th anniversary of this presser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

xpost I recall Paul Tsongas doing well in a primary (NY?) in 1992 after he had dropped out. There was a brief media flurry about how it was bad news for Clinton.

I am tired of this man!

get RID of man with this one weird trick!

*years of proceedings during and at the end of which he is still ubiquitous, and has even expanded into your cerebral cortex*

but yeah, there are legal, procedural, and electoral ways to remove this guy and key figures don’t wanna let that happen. so in the end, only the grim reaper will do it and tbh even he seems a bit cowed to my eye

I feel like Trump fatigue is a good thing to run on. Just 30 seconds of him being an ass and then "We are so tired of this man."

I suspect that's a big part of what lost him the race in 2020, especially after that first debate. I think he will probably somehow be even more annoying this time around. and since he will never shut the fuck up about his court cases and the fact that he believes he won 2020 I feel like the stakes of this election are gonna be pretty apparent. like I know a lot of idiot moderates in 2020 didn't really believe he was gonna actually make any noise about the election, that it was just bluster and the media's dislike of Trump, now its definitely starting to feel like a Trump victory would mean America is over as we know it

I feel like a lot rides on this trial, given it's the only one he'll face before the election. He's never going to be found not guilty - but if he can somehow engineer a mistrial, that would be huge, maybe legitimizing in some independents' eyes the whole witch hunt narrative

like I know a lot of idiot moderates in 2020 didn't really believe he was gonna actually make any noise about the election

was it during an impeachment that they interviewed a former trump employee/insider who was like “uh, no he won’t leave office peacefully, it’s not in him.” and i thought “ha, this old lady ain’t holding back.” lol she tried to warn everyone

this recollection seems so nutty here, even for me— am i confabulating this?

yea being a convicted felon I think actually would change a few minds

idk how useful polls are at this point but fucking yikes

RCP SWING STATES POLLING AVERAGE

WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump 49.3% (+1.8)
🟦 Biden 47.5%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump 48.3% (+0.6)
🟦 Biden 47.7%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump 49.3% (+5)
🟦 Biden 44.3%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump 46.3% (+1.3)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 48.8% (+4.8)
🟦 Biden 44%
.… pic.twitter.com/LUegdIK2Da

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 28, 2024

the problem with their averages is that for many states, they're only polling infrequently at this point compared to during the height of the race. Arizona, for example, 60% of the polls included in the average are over a month and a half old (though the one from April wasn't good either, lol). they have value but not as much as the Federal polls at this point, but of course that will reverse itself when state polling picks up after conventions/etc.

still not good, no, but...holding my breath

stink of 538 forewarning: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leads-swing-state-polls-tied-biden-nationally/story?id=109506070

And I don't believe Trump's ahead in Michigan or Wisconsin.

The national poll is garbage.

Our averages also show Trump leading in most swing states, though there is enough uncertainty that Biden could easily be ahead in enough to win the Electoral College.

lol ok that's that then