hall of fame, next vote...

Turner revamped his swing in his late 20's, much like Jose Bautista, and became a different hitter. It's not that he wasn't given chances.

https://www.mlb.com/news/contemporary-baseball-era-committee-candidates-announced

Cito Gaston, Davey Johnson, Jim Leyland, Ed Montague, Hank Peters, Lou Pinella, Joe West, Bill White...Didn't the Jays--maybe Gaston in particular--used to have all sorts of trouble with Joe West? The Immaculate Grid concept might be useful here in predicting who goes in: find guys who played for the most managers/executives in that group and go from there.

Two umpires. Guessing they're big, big analytic guys.

Anyway, this year it's Modern Day, since 1980. So, hoping for any of the following: Whitaker, Lofton, Delgado. I don't know if Dwight Evans would count--his best years came after 1980, so maybe. Pitchers? I don't know if anyone will ever emerge from that '80s quagmire: Stieb, Cone, Fernando. Am I forgetting someone obvious?

I am. Kevin Brown, Hershiser, and there are others.

Whitaker seems like the most likely out of that group, probably followed by Dwight Evans if he were to be included. I think a guy like Kevin Brown definitely deserves some more consideration. By most HOF standards he would deserve it. Stieb was a guy who felt like the best pitcher on the planet for many years. Despite the win totals, I think he should get a serious look. Jim Edmonds?

I thought Edmonds might still be on the regular ballot...must have forgotten he was one and out in 2016. Which is ridiculous.

Dunno if this is well known or not among you much bigger baseball fans than I, but I never forgot this great quote from Jim Leyland, set up here by OG Deadspin:

He was being interviewed by then-ESPNer Chris Myers, who was asking him about his well-publicized tendency to smoke cigarettes in the dugout. Leyland paused for a moment, put his head down and delivered the obligatory platitudes about how bad smoking is for you, how children should avoid smoking, how he knows it's unhealthy. Then he looked directly into the camera, his eyes very wide, and said, "Still. Smokers out there, you know what I'm talking about. That moment, after you've had a huge meal, say at Thanksgiving, when you step outside in the cold, light up a cigarette and take a deep inhale ... that's about the best moment in the world, you know? All the smokers out there, you know that feeling. Sometimes, smoking is fantastic." Myers quickly cut to commercial, and Leyland has never been on the show since.

I am not a smoker and pretty much buy into the "obligatory platitudes," but you gotta love a guy who just can't be helped from being honest about how he feels about things.

i used to smoke and that fucking hits

david cone is an interesting case, he didn't even get to 200 wins but he was clearly a HOF-level pitcher from '88-'99. the problem is he didn't do much of anything prior to or after that era. i think he was on that second tier of guys during the big 4 period (Clemens, Johnson, Martinez, Maddux), just as good as Smoltz, Glavine, Mussina, and better than Pettitte.

he came in at the end of that weird period for pitchers too, where so many of the best guys wound up with a career limited by injury or other factors. Hershiser, Viola, Guidry, and of course arguably the best pitcher of the '80s after Clemens and peak Gooden was Bret Saberhagen, for example, just absolutely a remarkable guy. if he were to be inducted on his peak value, and if the MLB HOF was more like the NBA HOF in that respect, he's a guy who might deserve it. he was an unluckier version of Zack Greinke.

i still think they should throw a bone to Rick Reuschel someday too.

Reuschel's definitely in line for reconsideration too--he'll have to wait for whatever era is pre-1980 to come up again. (I think--does it go by what year you debut?) A lot of position players from that era too: Grich, Nettles, Reggie Smith, others. I really believe--and hope--that Munson will end up in the HOF eventually: his similarity to Posey in so many ways was much commented on a couple of years ago, and obviously Posey is going in.

How badly did I fuck this sequence of posts up? The eight guys I mentioned aren't the voters this year--they're the nominees! Not a single player (seeing as Bill White is up for his executive time). I don't get it.

Anyway, here's Posnanski's post. Sentiment aside, it's probably hard to make an argument for Cito (best one I can think of: only one less WS than Bochy and more historically significant).

https://open.substack.com/pub/joeposnanski/p/friday-rewind-snakes-alive?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Maybe there's a separate ballot for players...who can keep track of this anymore?

Pinella is not well aiui so i could see him pulling a reverse dick allen

Pulling a reverse dick Allan definitely sounds like something

There are now three committees that rotate votes each year:

-Contemporary Players (2022, 2025)
-Contemporary Non-Players (2023, 2026)
-Classic Era (both players and non-players) (2024, 2027)

Thanks. Same question as above: do they go by year of debut, or by when your best years/biggest contribution happened? It would be weird to slot Whitaker (rookie year 1977) as "classic era."

How the living shit is Joe West a nominee? That turd, prima donna umpire was probably the chief inspiration for Angel Hernandez. If his bloated, smug face is in the hall before Bonds, burn the whole thing down

John Huston explained that in Chinatown.

Jay Jaffe on West: "He’s the first umpire to reach the ballot from a period where we can track his performance thanks to instant replay and Statcast, which may not work in his favor."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/managers-umpires-and-executives-get-their-hall-of-fame-shot-via-2024-contemporary-baseball-ballot/

Pinella looks like a shoo-in; only missed by one vote the year Baines and Lee Smith were elected.

Also the answer to my question in that piece: "dedicated to candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present."

Speaking of Jim Edmonds (above), I see he's really stepped in it.

he's kind of embarrassing in most off-the-field respects

do i want to know?

Nothing criminal is about the best you can say.

i was checking out active bWAR leaders and seeing deGrom w/42.1 (pitching WAR) over a mere 1356.1 IP made me wonder what his career rate per 200 IP was compared to others. i thought Pedro Martinez might be a good comparison.

Martinez: 86.1 bWAR/2827.1 IP = 6.1 bWAR per 200 IP
deGrom: 42.1 bWAR/1356.1 IP = 6.2 bWAR per 200 IP

Clemens is at 5.6, Randy Johnson 5.0

Apples and modern architecture, but just out of curiosity:

Mariano: 56.3 bWAR/1283.2 IP = 8.7 bWAR per 200 IP

There are probably at least a dozen closers higher than Pedro.

I thought that might be the case, but I'm thinking it might not be that many. Kimbrel is about where Pedro and deGrom are (and likely to drop below, if i had to bet money), Hader is close, Chapman isn't there, nor is Jansen. Guys like Sutter, Hoffman, Smith, Quisenberry, Gossage, etc just aren't anywhere near. Rivera was just absolutely remarkable to such a high degree, the exception to so many rules.

Separately speaking, I forgot Quisenberry had five top 5 Cy ballot finishes, plus finished third in MVP voting in 1984 (among a few other high placements.) They really thought saves were a stat on par with home runs back then. And in 1984 Cal Ripken finished at the bottom of the list of players who received votes, with a bWAR of 10.0(!)

When I first bought Pete Palmer's Total Baseball, it was eye-opening that he had Ripken's '84 season rated higher than his MVP season from the year before.

The HOF ballot was released today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-released

Haven't had a chance to look at it. Obviously Beltre will go in first try--guessing 90-95%.

Utley and Mauer will be two of the more heavily debated candidates of recent times (Utley especially); classic peak vs. career players.

I suspect Mauer will get close, and might get in. I'm kind of envisioning something between 55% and 65% maybe. He was just such a great hitter. That mvp season is probably the key deciding factor that will ultimately get him enshrined but he was no joke for the rest of his career.

Utley's peak was remarkable, and he's not a bad comp to Ryne Sandberg in some ways but Sandberg had his absolute best years scattered all over his career rather than clustered together, his off-years weren't nearly as off (Utley had a really steep decline), plus his extensive hardware and legend-making moments made it a bit easier for him. And if it took Sandberg three(!) tries to get in, I figure it might take Utley at least that long even with the wider acceptance of advanced stats helping him.

I was just looking at Utley's five-year peak--pretty great, for sure. And Jaffe has him ranked as the 12th greatest ever, ahead of both Alomar and Biggio. He's not my favourite kind of candidate--I do have a bit of a hang-up about consistency and longevity--but he'll probably go in within three or four years.

For the guys who got close last time: Helton (72.2%), yes; Wagner (68.1%)...normally you'd say yes for sure, but with a closer, there's maybe a small chance he peaked--but probably yes; Andruw (58.1%), would be shocked if he jumped 17%. Sheffield's last year on the ballot; don't think so. Beltran's second year, started at 45%--? Jays question: will Bautista last a second year on the ballot?

K-Rod received 10.8% in year one. The closer thing is just so weird to me. He's a guy who was never as good as someone like also-rans Joe Nathan or Tom Henke, and about as good as Papelbon. I guess because of that single season save record, he gets some props. I wonder how long he'll last on the ballot.

If Posey is a HOFer, which seemed to be the consensus when he retired, then Mauer should be too.

Mauer played for longer and accumulated more stats, but surprisingly Posey had a better OPS+ (129 vs 124). I always thought of Mauer as the far better hitter, but maybe that's wrong.

I was thinking that catcher might be one position where WS wins carry a certain amount of HOF weight, but that didn't seem to help Munson or Posada. I expect Posey will have quicker passage than Mauer. And I don't understand the Hall's long-standing resistance to Munson.

wiki:

Players who met first-year eligibility requirements but were not selected by the screening committee for inclusion on the ballot were: Matt Belisle, Gregor Blanco, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Brett Cecil, Jorge de la Rosa, Brian Duensing, A. J. Ellis, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Jaime García, Craig Gentry, Chris Gimenez, Jason Hammel, Chase Headley, Phil Hughes, Kevin Jepsen, Jim Johnson, Boone Logan, Ryan Madson, Brandon McCarthy, Miguel Montero, Brandon Morrow, Peter Moylan, Bud Norris, Cliff Pennington, Colby Rasmus, Adam Rosales, Marc Rzepczynski, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Denard Span, Chris Stewart, Chris Tillman, Chris Young, Eric Young Jr. and Brad Ziegler.

Chase Headley had that single great year, finished fifth in MVP voting, gold glove, silver slugger, and that was really the only season of note his entire career.

Utley, of the course, the rare player who had the (dis)honour of inspiring a rule change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiY2GtBrHug

If the Academy Awards are the Super Bowl for gay men (a joke embraced by gay men, I believe), then baseball's HOF season is the Super Bowl for _______________________? (Be gentle there, you're talking about me.)

Chase Utley is one player that fans wanted to have a catch with even if he did try to use a monkey's paw to get back into the MLB.

Four ballots in already--the Tracker:

http://www.bbhoftracker.com/

Also, Jay Jaffe seems to be a few days into his yearly rundown:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?author=169789

I believe the posts are mostly recycled from previous years, but I assume first-time candidates get new write-ups.

Considering how many times we had to interview Jim Leyland while he was lying on the couch, having slept in his office after the previous night's game, it's only fitting he got the biggest honor of his career like this. https://t.co/QGQhscsuTe

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) December 4, 2023

Glad to hear it, but surprised Piniella again missed by a vote.

Yeah, what is the argument for picking Leyland but not Piniella? Both were MOY three times and have one WS title. Both had notable successes managing three different teams. Piniella actually won more games with a slightly better winning percentage.

The other thing is, Piniella had a good career as a player, too: ROY, MVP votes four seasons, important member of the '77/78 WS winners.

Maybe the Non-Players Committee officially isn't allowed to take that into consideration...but unofficially, you'd think that that would be hard to do.

It's kind of the Gil Hodges situation redux. When he kept falling just short as a player on the BBWAA ballots, some people said that his years as a manager should put him over the top.

He was eventually elected by the Golden Age committee as a player, but I don't they were given instructions to look only at his playing career. We've basically revived the problems with the old Veteran's Committee, there's way too much cronyism going on. Essentially, they elect who they want based on the criteria they decide for themselves.