shohei ohtani alert

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-to-keep-hitting-with-ucl-tear

Yet another reminder that the state religion of baseball writers is frequentism. Shohei Ohtani has broken every model yet people are convinced they can forecast his post-injury performance.

Shohei Ohtani has torn his UCL again and here's why that's a good thing...

and here's why that's bad news for the rangers

from the Otani alt thread:

Ohtani's Elbow:

Why would LAA want, or let Ohtani pitch this season after the elbow injury? Is there ANY reasoning behind this?

Jay Jaffe:

The Angels had almost nothing to lose by testing Ohtani's elbow. If he has the surgery now, there's a reasonable shot he can still DH for most/all of next season while not pitching, but if they waited until spring for the surgery, he'd be unable to do either.

Jeff Fletcher, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, put it well in a tweet:

"If Ohtani had TJ surgery on June 7, 2018 -- the day the sprain was discovered -- he'd be out till 2020.

"If he has it tomorrow, he'll be out till 2020.

"If he has it a week from now, he'll be out till 2020."

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, September 6, 2018 10:01 AM (four years ago)

re: 2xTJs. Ryu's been back for 4 starts, ERA+ of 226. hope he continues to pitch effectively

the thing i'd keep in mind is that contract he has been building up to this offseason is predicated on him being a two way player. he'd still get a giant deal, prob the biggest in the game, if he was going to just be a hitter, but the eye-popping american sports record setting contract that was certainly coming requires him to be valued as a two way player. so my guess is that his people will be in no rush to say "yeah it's best if he never pitches again." even if, realistically speaking, that's where this is inevitably headed

personally i think he's too good of a pitcher to just never pitch again -- especially if he was on a team that genuinely had a chance to win the world series he'd be very valuable in a playoff setting. i could see a team coming up w/ a plan to get him enough starts in the regular season to stay sharp but not really pushing him as a SP until the stretch run/playoffs. or just converting him to a lights out 2 inning reliever.

― J0rdan S., Thursday, August 24, 2023 12:58 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

yeah I’m sure the salary projections are going to have to be adjusted to account for the fact that he’s probably not throwing 180 innings year in and year out. but I don’t see why he wouldn’t keep pitching, as you said he’s really good at it and it’s not like it’s going to make him a worse hitter.

maybe this seems like the wrong time to bring this up but I also don’t really understand why he doesn’t play the field. the injury risk in right field or first base or whatever is minimal and if you really want to talk about the value of opening up a roster spot, why not let someone else DH who otherwise couldn’t add value in the field

should point out I didn’t read the posts that followed that one which mention him playing the field — for the record I was referring to before the injury and in a year or so once he’s recovered, I doubt it would be smart to do it any time in the next 12 months

Before the injury? I might be overthinking it but he wants to pitch. That’s really it. I could see him doing it until his arm falls off, honestly, it seems that important to him. He considers both aspects of his game to be so deeply important that he didn’t sign with an NL team, he calls his own game, and he has eight different pitches that he uses.

Jesus Christ

Of note: Angels GM Perry Minasian said that despite Ohtani suffering from cramping and arm fatigue that caused him to push back starts during this season, the team didn't do any related imaging on his arm until this past week.

— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) August 25, 2023

When will the angels change?

That's incredible.

Don’t ask don’t tell generational talent edition

just a thought about him playing 1B with a torn UCL...

i would guess not, unless you're just going to give up on him ever pitching again

It won’t last, so I just want to preserve this. pic.twitter.com/HaDM1vvLOJ

— Adam Darowski (@baseballtwit) August 24, 2023

https://i.ibb.co/3CmTmYP/Screenshot-2023-08-27-at-9-15-03-AM.png

lol

re: ohtani's upcoming free agency and the effect of this injury on his contract, i wonder if he would consider a contract with incentives depending on how many innings he pitches? i'm just throwing this out there, but say he gets a baseline $25-30M a year for his hitting alone, and then maybe an extra $1M for every 10 innings he pitches, something like that?

I could imagine him taking a one year DH deal while his arm heals and then going for the two way contract.

Idly wondering if the Mariners chances of getting him have increased cos of this injury:

- Mariners desperately in need of a big hitter and if they don’t go far in the postseason this year that could be their final piece
- Can work with/rehab with the pitchers they have there and Mariners pitching development is used to rehabbing and rebuilding guys
- the Ichiro factor (he lives there and is at the park and even does leaping outfield catches during bp sometimes)
- lots of promising young talent on the roster to play with (Julio, Kirby, Kelenic etc)
- Ohtani lived in Seattle during two off seasons and liked it!

Julio nicely asking Shohei to vacate the cage for him at the ASG - what could be

On that note, whichever team signs Shohei will likely try to get him to do more for them. He’s kept an extremely low profile considering, but that might change depending on where he signs and what they pay him.

and then maybe an extra $1M for every 10 innings he pitches, something like that?

are you even allowed to do contracts like this? like in the NFL you'd have RBs with incentives like "$5 million if you get 200 carries" where you'd suddenly start seeing the backup a lot more once they hit 150, which might actually be for very legit load management reasons but also tends to give everyone conspiracybrain

you can, but I think they can only be based on playing time and awards. So like Yelich's contract he gets:

$100,000 for MVP ($75,000 for second in vote, $50,000 for third). $50,000 each for All Star, Silver Slugger, WS MVP, Aaron Award, Comeback Player of Year. $25,000 each for Gold Glove, LCS MVP.

Jesse Winker (to pick another Brewer) gets:

2023 performance bonuses: $100,000 each for 500, 550 plate appearances. $200,000 for 600 PA.
award bonuses: $150,000 for MVP. $100,000 for WS MVP. $50,000 each for All Star election, LCS MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove. $25,000 for All Star selection.

i think a team would be fine to give him a contract based on an incentive structure around i.e. innings pitched

the thing is that all that really matters in the contract negotiations is leverage. i think ohtani's people will say "he is going to be an elite starting pitcher and an elite hitter and his contract will reflect that." there is no reason for him to accept anything based on incentives unless no team is offering him a contract that values him as a full time pitcher. and maybe that's what will happen, but if the bidding gets intense enough then the leverage very likely shifts ohtani's way to the point that a team may have to pay him like a full time SP to win his signature over other bidders. maybe every suitor holds the line on the pitching thing. i bet one caves tho

i bet one caves tho

yeah, same. it's easy to make the "a rich guy will win prediction" but iirc super-rich people sometimes have this ego problem where they have to have the biggest prize, and one of those guys is likely to pay a premium for him

If I was more motivated I'd like to track on Statcast what his SLG average is pre/post UCL tear. Anecdotally it seems like he's still hitting but without pre-injury launch angle/batspeed or both.

I mean, it would be a tiny sample either way

Shohei Ohtani came up with discomfort and was limping after this play and headed to the clubhouse.

pic.twitter.com/S0G3xVZwiw

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) August 29, 2023

truly cursed organization

Today was Angels photo day. But Shohei Ohtani wasn’t available for it. So they used a body double, and will presumably photoshop him in. He was taken through a back exit by Angels PR. pic.twitter.com/5yFuDjLw4o

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) September 5, 2023

Ohtani hasn’t played in a game since the 3rd. :( he was supposed to be in the lineup yesterday but was scratched and wasn’t in it today.

The Angels medical team might be worse than the Yankees’.

Has he been spotted in the dugout? I'm curious if he low-key flew back to JP to get a second opinion on his injury.

Huh. I didn’t know the answer, last picture of him on Getty images is September 3rd.

He was "unavailable" for the team picture on Sept 5th.

Yeah saw that, but had no idea he wasn’t even in the dugout until you just brought it up. He must be back if they listed him as available but I haven’t seen mention if him being seen there on Twitter.

He was on the field in Philly on 9/8 so my theory is debunked.

Man needed to get a cheesesteak in, fuck it, seasons done

Shohei Ohtani’s locker has been cleared out. There’s a bag that’s packed.

The Angels have declined to say tonight why this is happening or what it means.

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) September 16, 2023

Welp... what a wacky ending to one of the most unusual seasons on record.

If the Angels actually ruined him by running him out every day & not treating him properly - can you fucking imagine

Just tallied his stats... bref has him at 10.0 WAR (6.0 batting + 4.0 pitching) which has him tied for 173rd in highest single season WAR ever (6th highest among active players, what is up 2009 Zack Greinke!?):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_season.shtml

wrong link there (that's just batters), correct link for pitchers/batters:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_season.shtml

West coast Mets

please. there is a nobility to the mets' failings that LAA can only dream of

On the IL with oblique injury, season officially done

glad I can say I saw him play, even if it was only hitting.

Shohei Ohtani had surgery this morning. Here’s a statement from his agent, Nez Balelo … pic.twitter.com/ES2RSp1rOJ

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) September 19, 2023

Worth noting that the MD who performed the surgery is the Head Team Physician for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Same doc who just worked on Aaron Rodgers as well.

he does all the big stars now that james andrews is in his 80s

xps yeah Dr Robert Anderson is the foot equivalent for a ton of teams as well

the lebron james of elbows