Braves are right around the pace of the Twins' team record from a couple of years ago.
― clemenza, Saturday, 12 August 2023 20:09 (eight months ago) link
Olson is up to 43 HRs, two ahead of Ohtani. He hit a 455 foot monster last night at Citi, really impressive.
― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Monday, 14 August 2023 16:17 (eight months ago) link
44th HR, left today's game in the second inning with "arm fatigue."
― clemenza, Wednesday, 23 August 2023 21:29 (eight months ago) link
He’s been playing injured and pushing himself for a while. Maybe his fourth early exit in the past month?
― ydkb (gyac), Wednesday, 23 August 2023 21:55 (eight months ago) link
Could he be done pitching this year? 13 (!) days rest and gets pulled after facing 5 batters. Angels playoff adds are at 0.2%
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 23 August 2023 21:56 (eight months ago) link
His 4SFB was only hitting 92mph in the 2nd inning (-8%), again after 13 days rest. He normally hits 92mph with his splitter which was sitting mid-80s today.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 23 August 2023 22:09 (eight months ago) link
Oh that is really fucking bad. He needs to go on the IL but…You know.
― ydkb (gyac), Wednesday, 23 August 2023 22:16 (eight months ago) link
They're not even close to the WC anymore--10 games out. And if they were to just have him DH for the rest of the year, it wouldn't even cost him the MVP.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 04:13 (eight months ago) link
Torn UCL, he's done pitching.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 05:21 (eight months ago) link
Ah, that's really too bad. I don't know physiology particularly well--I hope he can stay in there as DH.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 05:25 (eight months ago) link
bryce harper DH’d for the phillies last year on a torn UCL and was DHing for them this year post-surgery before he was cleared to return to the field. so it can be done. the issue is that if it does require surgery ohtani is better off not wasting a month playing out the string for a terrible team
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 24 August 2023 05:53 (eight months ago) link
https://undertheknife.substack.com/p/utk-flash-ohtani-elbow-trout-il
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 24 August 2023 06:59 (eight months ago) link
Holy shit. He’s already had Tommy John as well.He’s really been pushing this season. I love Ohtani, but I wondered how he could keep doing these things, but it turns out, he was just running himself into the ground.
― ydkb (gyac), Thursday, 24 August 2023 07:53 (eight months ago) link
tbf all sorts of players run into UCL issues, even normal human players. There is something about pitchers, though. Very hard to keep them healthy.
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 24 August 2023 08:06 (eight months ago) link
One month before hitting free agency as well... this injury may cost him well over $100M.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 13:48 (eight months ago) link
It's really strange that the Angels would let him play in the second game of a double-header after he was removed from the mound in the first. There's no diagnosis at that point--could be anything.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:06 (eight months ago) link
Yeah they have been handling the whole thing very strangely. They just announced Trout is going back on the IL. CJ Wilson was posting about the club’s historical medical issues:
there was no breakfast served at spring training until 2nd week of ST in 2012, and no weight room until 2013. Coming from Texas where fitness was 100% expected, it was shocking how lazy they expected the players to be— C.J. Wilson (@str8edgeracer) August 24, 2023
― ydkb (gyac), Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:18 (eight months ago) link
― clemenza, Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:06 AM (twenty-one minutes ago)
i probably would've just sat him but i don't think it's that strange. we know you can hit even on a torn UCL.
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:32 (eight months ago) link
But my assumption is that the diagnosis was made after the second game, and that at that point they don't know for sure what it is beyond "arm fatigue." And even if they did know, I personally wouldn't put him out there, especially in an essentially meaningless game. If nothing else, he wouldn't mentally be in the right frame of mind knowing he won't pitch again.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:44 (eight months ago) link
The angels are basically the west coast Mets, just a badly run organization Plus loads of bad luck. Generational talents wasted, and increasingly injured and unable to contribute down the stretch.
― omar little, Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:54 (eight months ago) link
It's a damn shame, such a great season for ohtani. If he's able to keep hitting the way he has the rest of the way that'll be a decent consolation prize I suppose.
― omar little, Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:55 (eight months ago) link
even if he doesn't play at all (hitting/pitching), he'd probably still win MVP, too, but yeah, such a bummer to see him get injured. pitchers will break your heart!
― i really like that!! (z_tbd), Thursday, 24 August 2023 15:57 (eight months ago) link
Yeah I don’t think they were ignorant (xps to clemenza), he has been dealing with this fatigue all month and for a while now. I didn’t realise till Steve Shasta said that he hadn’t started in twelve days!
― ydkb (gyac), Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:00 (eight months ago) link
I know I shouldn't be giving it a second thought, that there's a lot more at stake here, but I have been thinking about MVP. If he keeps DH'ing, he'll still win unanimously, I'm sure. If he doesn't, even though I could see a handful of writers dropping him to #2, he still should win easily. No one's even close right now in bWAR, and of the three guys within four games, Seager has also missed significant time, Seager and Semien play for the same team, and the third is Wander Franco. There's also precedent in Josh Hamilton in 2010, who didn't play between Sept. 4 and Oct. 1.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:08 (eight months ago) link
Josh hamilton, another member of the cursed group for the Angels
― omar little, Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:13 (eight months ago) link
Ohtani 2023 will go down as a Grand Experiment but if he ever decides back to pitch again (after 2 TJ's) he'll be like Jake deGrom or Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw... glimmers of greatness between long IL residences. Not sure if whomever he lands with in 2024+ will want to risk that.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:29 (eight months ago) link
i think he's likely to land with one of the owners with bottomless pockets, and they will want to risk it because ohtani the 2-way thing is the key to his legend (and merchandise/PR/attendance). DH-only ohtani is still awesome but it's just different
― i really like that!! (z_tbd), Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:36 (eight months ago) link
kinda harsh on Kershaw imo - he has 416 starts, that's 4th among active pitchers, and like 200 more than Sale or deGrom have (257 and 215)
― The Yellow Kid, Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:48 (eight months ago) link
Kershaw is the last of those types of workhorses though IMO? He and Verlander are the freaks, not the other guys. Pitchers are throwing harder, throwing more strikes, and getting Tommy John more regularly. I was looking at the all time strikeouts per nine leaderboard (min 1000 IP), look how many of the guys on it are current pitchers!https://i.postimg.cc/NFDM0FSH/IMG-8246.jpg
― ydkb (gyac), Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:55 (eight months ago) link
the thing i'd keep in mind is that contract he has been building up to this offseason is predicated on him being a two way player. he'd still get a giant deal, prob the biggest in the game, if he was going to just be a hitter, but the eye-popping american sports record setting contract that was certainly coming requires him to be valued as a two way player. so my guess is that his people will be in no rush to say "yeah it's best if he never pitches again." even if, realistically speaking, that's where this is inevitably headed
personally i think he's too good of a pitcher to just never pitch again -- especially if he was on a team that genuinely had a chance to win the world series he'd be very valuable in a playoff setting. i could see a team coming up w/ a plan to get him enough starts in the regular season to stay sharp but not really pushing him as a SP until the stretch run/playoffs. or just converting him to a lights out 2 inning reliever.
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 24 August 2023 16:58 (eight months ago) link
I wonder if he might not sign a deal with an early opt-out - sign a big deal as a hitter, if he shows he can pitch again he opts out and signs a humongous deal as both?
― The Yellow Kid, Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:02 (eight months ago) link
On that photo gallery of strikeout leaders, I think the chronological divide between Koufax/Ryan and everybody else is two decades measured by debut--is Randy Johnson the third on that timeline?
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:12 (eight months ago) link
Ah I see y'all are being a bit optimistic with Shohei's pitching future imho.
Which one of you googlers can tell me who has compiled the most WAR *after* two Tommy Johns?
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:14 (eight months ago) link
Yeah, full page for reference is here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_career.shtmlWas just looking at Ohtani’s baseball savant page and there’s a very noticeable uptick in the % of breaking pitches he throws, wonder if that had an effect.
― ydkb (gyac), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:19 (eight months ago) link
Ok here's the full list I have:
Pitcher - date of 2nd TJNathan Eovaldi - 2016Jameson Taillon - 2019Daniel Hudson - 2013Jason Isringhausen - 2008Chris Capuano - 2008Joakim Soria - 2012
In recovery from 2nd TJ: Hyun-Jin RyuWalker Buehler
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:19 (eight months ago) link
Was just going to post this--maybe your list is gleaned from the same source:
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-11-17/padres-second-tommy-john-surgery-mike-clevinger-nathan-eovaldi
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:21 (eight months ago) link
Whoops, missed Clev. Ok, here's the "2nd TJ success stories" quick & dirty table:
Post-2nd TJ bWAR/fWAR:
Nathan Eovaldi - 12.0/12.5/ = AVG: 2.0/2.1Jameson Taillon - 3.0/5.4 = AVG 1.0/1.8Daniel Hudson - /4.5 = AVG /0.5Jason Isringhausen - 1.8/-0.6 = AVG 0.2/-0.3Chris Capuano - 2.6/6.6 = AVG 0.3/0.9Joakim Soria - 5.8/7.6 = AVG 0.4/0.8
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:35 (eight months ago) link
Also to note the obvious: these guys listed above were one-way players and their career depended upon their health only as pitchers.
Ohtani's value prior to this was gauged three-fold: pitcher/fielder/batter.
So it's safe to say Ohtani won't pitch again in 2023 and mostly likely 2024 and will more than likely only be a DH. He could possibly see 1B action as he will not have to make any overhand throws (similar to what Harper's doing now). So basically he's not pitching for at least one year or more, and will be relegated to DH and maybe 1B. This is going to cut his value down massively at the front-end of whatever contract he signs in the offseason.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:44 (eight months ago) link
Also of note, that coming out of high school in 2012 the LA Dodgers (Ohtani's top choice) would only sign Shohei as a one-way player which was more than likely the reason he chose the Nippon Ham Fighters instead of MLB.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:49 (eight months ago) link
just a thought about him playing 1B with a torn UCL...
Could he turn a 3-X-3 double play?
Will defer to the mookieproof on this.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 17:51 (eight months ago) link
bryce strictly DH'd last year w/ a torn UCL and then came back to play 1B this season before he was cleared for more intensive throwing. i think you *can* throw a ball on a torn UCL it would just hurt a lot & if there is a chance of worsening a non-full you wouldn't want to risk it.
w/ ohtani specifically you also have to consider the angels just called up their first round pick who plays 1B and ohtani is already acclimated to DH, i don't see why he'd step on the field this season if he doesn't sit out altogether
― J0rdan S., Thursday, 24 August 2023 18:25 (eight months ago) link
This is also potentially a blow to the game in general. Much as I hate the term--and believe me, I'm not blaming Trout here; I admired the way he shrugged off Manfred's admonishments--and also putting aside my carping about mlb.com's gushing early last year, Shohei has seemed to be more "marketable" than Trout. If he continues as a great hitter but not a pitcher, it just wouldn't be the same.
― clemenza, Thursday, 24 August 2023 18:37 (eight months ago) link
w/ ohtani specifically you also have to consider the angels just called up their first round pick who plays 1B and ohtani is already acclimated to DH, i don't see why he'd step on the field this season if he doesn't sit out altogether― J0rdan S., Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:25 AM (eighteen minutes ago)
― J0rdan S., Thursday, August 24, 2023 11:25 AM (eighteen minutes ago)
yeah sorry that scenario was more for whomever signs Ohtani in the offseason for 2024 and beyond.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 18:46 (eight months ago) link
Serious question: why is it so hard for pitchers to come back after TJ#2? I thought that TJ surgery actually made the arm stronger and more resilient? Obviously there's a long list of pitchers who dominated after TJ. What is it about the second surgery that makes it less successful than the first?
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 24 August 2023 19:47 (eight months ago) link
From the article Clem linked above:
“On average, the typical TJ revision isn’t as successful as the typical primary TJ,” Dr. Andrew Cosgarea, an orthopedic surgeon and professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, said Tuesday. “… The first time you drill a hole in the bone it is fresh and clean, but if it happens again you already have a hole there and that hole is filled with scar tissue. … Scar tissue isn’t as healthy as original tissue. It doesn’t have the same blood supply; (it is) not as durable.”
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 24 August 2023 19:51 (eight months ago) link
https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-to-keep-hitting-with-ucl-tear
― clemenza, Friday, 25 August 2023 02:44 (eight months ago) link
Yet another reminder that the state religion of baseball writers is frequentism. Shohei Ohtani has broken every model yet people are convinced they can forecast his post-injury performance.
― Allen (etaeoe), Friday, 25 August 2023 14:45 (eight months ago) link
Shohei Ohtani has torn his UCL again and here's why that's a good thing...
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Friday, 25 August 2023 16:35 (eight months ago) link
and here's why that's bad news for the rangers
― i really like that!! (z_tbd), Friday, 25 August 2023 16:39 (eight months ago) link
from the Otani alt thread:
Ohtani's Elbow:Why would LAA want, or let Ohtani pitch this season after the elbow injury? Is there ANY reasoning behind this?Jay Jaffe:The Angels had almost nothing to lose by testing Ohtani's elbow. If he has the surgery now, there's a reasonable shot he can still DH for most/all of next season while not pitching, but if they waited until spring for the surgery, he'd be unable to do either.Jeff Fletcher, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, put it well in a tweet:"If Ohtani had TJ surgery on June 7, 2018 -- the day the sprain was discovered -- he'd be out till 2020."If he has it tomorrow, he'll be out till 2020."If he has it a week from now, he'll be out till 2020."― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, September 6, 2018 10:01 AM (four years ago)
Why would LAA want, or let Ohtani pitch this season after the elbow injury? Is there ANY reasoning behind this?
Jay Jaffe:
The Angels had almost nothing to lose by testing Ohtani's elbow. If he has the surgery now, there's a reasonable shot he can still DH for most/all of next season while not pitching, but if they waited until spring for the surgery, he'd be unable to do either.
Jeff Fletcher, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, put it well in a tweet:
"If Ohtani had TJ surgery on June 7, 2018 -- the day the sprain was discovered -- he'd be out till 2020.
"If he has it tomorrow, he'll be out till 2020.
"If he has it a week from now, he'll be out till 2020."
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, September 6, 2018 10:01 AM (four years ago)
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Friday, 25 August 2023 18:04 (eight months ago) link