ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

little green men

and pretty interesting how different Ponomarev and Kapustin are

this new yorker piece Two Weeks At the Front in Ukraine is really v good.

Mr Motivator

The leader of Russia's Wagner private mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says Moscow's plan to "demilitarize" Ukraine failed and that the invasion of its neighbor "turned Ukraine's army into one of the most powerful in the world." In an interview with pro-Kremlin political observer Konstantin Dolgov, the full version of which was published on May 24, Prigozhin said Russia's aggression made Ukrainians "a nation known to the entire world." Prigozhin added that Wagner had lost 20,000 troops during fight for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and suggested that the war may end with a mutiny by Russian soldiers.

v curious game he's playing. kofman and a colleague referred to him performing the role of a social media influencer in the war (one of the interesting themes of the new yorker piece is 'what does trench warfare look like in an age of internet and mobile communication'). looks like it's a political play, but if he's taking on shogyu and gerasimov then he's taking on some very experienced players indeed.

He's almost starting to sound like Strelkov there

xxxp Belogorod and other incursions continue, with gov. making a show of disdain and of evacuations---some overview of various Anti-Putin groups. incl. ones coming in from Ukraine:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/10/russian-guerrillas-are-trying-to-violently-overthrow-putin/

immediate, later effects of flooding, incl. ones tbd by war---yuck: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraines-dam-collapse-fast-moving-disaster-slow-moving-99991328

Russia rejects U.N. help as death toll from breached dam rises

Images taken from above the Kakhovka Dam and shared with the AP appear to show an explosive-laden car atop the structure, and two officials said Russian troops were stationed in a crucial area inside the dam where the Ukrainians say the explosion that destroyed it was centered. The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Both Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of grains and producers of fertiliser destined for African markets. According to the African Development Bank, the conflict has "triggered a shortage of about 30 million tonnes of grains on the African continent, along with a sharp increase in cost." As a result of this conflict, African countries are negatively affected by the rising costs of food and energy.

Supply chain disruptions have caused a shortage of farming inputs, such as fertilisers, threatening the food security of several African countries.

Another point of the African leaders' peace proposal is o opening up the movement of grains across the Black Sea for grains from Russia or Ukraine to reach world markets.

I mean would you want the UN to come in and help people you have war-crimed xp?

yeah so it figures The Guardian passes this along):

From 1d ago
09.06 EDT

One killed and seven injured after Russia fires at rescue workers in Kherson
One person has been killed and seven injured while they were clearing mud in the flooded area of Kherson, Ukrainian officials have reported.

Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of the Ukrainian presidency, posted to Telegram to say:

The Russian army fired at rescue workers in Kherson who were clearing mud. As a result of the shelling, one employee of the state emergency service was killed, and seven more employees were injured. Six are in serious condition.

The claims have not been independently verified.

I mean it figures they'd be firing.

ok what the fuck is happening with Prigozhin

seems like he's kinda pushing his luck... better be careful next time he goes out for a smoke in a high rise

I would bet on wagner over the regular russian army tbh

a bunch of ex-cons with nothing to lose

Sounds like a late Roman Empire coup

LFG

skeptical of how far this can go, but it's getting quite a lot of attention from journalists and whatnot

Some kayfabe for Putin to get rid of an annoyance?

it's hard to see how this is actually some galaxy brained 5D chess move by Putin

it’s v odd. “high on his own supply” and absolutely consumed by internal military politics is my favourite sketch so far. an immense distraction but hard to see how it changes anything. russians are robustly entrenched and doing a fair job of repelling the counteroffensive. nothing looks like it’s going to shift. it doesn’t even feel like a tactically smart time to be doing this for prigozhin.

Unless his hand was forced? If he got word he was about to get taken out then it becomes a more rational move?

but nothing particularly clear right now so who knows

powerful amphetamines?

^

yeah, maybe the friendly fire that took out the Wagner unit was actually intended for him

Russian military is deploying troops in Rostov-na-Don.#Russia #coup #Rostov pic.twitter.com/npmYOynXIz

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 23, 2023

this seems pretty serious

Statement of Russian general Sergei Surovkin, telling Wagner forces to "Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment"
(Statement was made on video, posted by Russian media outlet RBC) pic.twitter.com/QGf1NxSNKs

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) June 23, 2023

yeah, maybe the friendly fire that took out the Wagner unit was actually intended for him

the missile hit? do we have proof that happened? I know everything is foggy right now!

Vladimir Alekseyev, another once Wagner-friendly general:

"This is a stab in the back of the country and the president. Only the president has the right to appoint the military leadership, and you are trying to attack his authority. This is a state coup. Come to your senses!" pic.twitter.com/Zz7QRqZ1AM

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 23, 2023

wheres putin at

the fact that they're freaking out so much means that something real seems to be happening

"Until it is too late, it is necessary... to obey the will and the order"
bad translation? that's some cryptic shit

wheres putin at

where's prigozhin at?!

❗️New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way":

"The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023

Meantime on Russian TV

That's it for the emergency news broadcast. Now we are back to this boring fashion show.

Не, не лыком шитый и не пальцем деланный
И, бля, уж точно нет, не на помойке найденный
(real ones know) pic.twitter.com/ywolizCpEK

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 23, 2023

This was not a twist I would have predicted, despite being in a sense entirely predictable.

In every picture, Prigozhin gives off big Mike from "Breaking Bad" vibes.

Republicans must be conflicted right now between their love of insurrections and love of Putin

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) June 23, 2023

found putin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkuWrmxN7hg

Wondering where this will leave Wagner's presence in Central African Republic (which, double-checking now, turns out to have its own Wikipedia entry) and elsewhere in the world.

pirozhgin's statement definitely shows serious intent to seize the initiative. interesting how his message clearly is making a strong play for inciting mutinies among the recent draftees and defections to his forces. his best hope is a rapid shift of troop sentiment in his favor.

Running guess right now from a lot of folks is that this is so much hot air, noting the sheer lack of any video evidence of shit going down beyond various defensive setups in Moscow. Still, who knows.

For instance:

Here are a few insights into the situation surrounding Prigozhin:

1️⃣ For a long time, Prigozhin has been out of direct contact with Putin, yet he's believed he was acting in Putin's interests "by default". His significant contributions in the war enhanced his sense of…

— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) June 23, 2023

doesnt seem like hot air, might be foolish tho

maybe hes trying to motivate something that just wont happen but declaring that youre doing an insurrection is a pretty all in move might as well actually do it, if you can

Pleas from Russian generals seem genuine; could they be panicking with no real evidence? Guess it's possible, or "until it's too late" might be signal to stand by, not really down (like Trump to Proud Boys). Or the general is on some level hoping it will be "too late" to stop the coup---thus removing/diminishing Putin and/or Wagnerites? So the whole Ukraine crusade will be at least diminished, *maybe* negotiated, before it turns into another Afghanistan defeat, as helped collapse the Soviet system.

feel like russia could def be panicking without out evidence, and prigozhin could be trying to rally the troops without much success

His methods are unsound

kind of funny to try to follow the news for a country that doesnt have any news