ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I remember early on in the war there arose the legend of some Ukrainian fighter pilot who downed five Russian fighters or something like that, but it turned out to be just a legend, and a propaganda figure

The analysts I've read said dogfights don't really happen anymore, for a number or reasons

tracer: I don't think the Ukrainian airforce is anywhere near to the size of Russia's (they have more pilots than planes, for instance), but as we've seen - Russia is still really dependent on creaky old Soviet-era shit, so who knows the quality of their overall fleet

Russia would not easily be able to replace what Air Force and pilots they have is my guess. Those are needed for deterrence and they would have to use the brunt to make any difference.

basically the US being able to establish air dominance seemingly at will (e.g. in iraq) is the exception not the rule.

generally defenders have a massive advantage over any attacking force. this is often approximated as a 3:1 advantage ratio. both ukraine and russia are well equipped with SAMs (big Surface to Air Missiles) and MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence Systems i.e. little missiles). its really hard to take out this sort of deep air defense network. the only way to do it is to have a huge and incredibly expensive network of planes and intelligence staff dedicated to finding ground targets and destroying them with radar seeking missiles. and doing it all quickly within the first few days of the war, while a ground force moves in at the same time and makes sure the defense can't reset. this has only been pulled off a couple of times since modern air defense systems proliferated (by the US and israel) and only against inferior opposition.

it is a lot easier and a lot cheaper to just maintain a no fly zone over your own territory than to go out and obliterate your opponents missile defenses, and this is what ukraine and russia have defaulted to. and it is a situation that any major power could find themselves in if they are not punching down enough.

Some tawdry details involving some of the better known faces of American "volunteer fighters" in Ukraine (at least on Twitter):

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/volunteers-us-ukraine-lies.html

Lots of details about Ukraine war in here I hadn't noticed while skimming previous reports, also related, like (leak-threatened) intel sources in Wagner Group---with btw mention of the group’s plans to strengthen its presence across Africa and in Haiti. :
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html

more leaked deets, boots on the ground ah damn (also US still got 'em in Syria, for what that's worth)

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

Why does it always have to be boots? Why do we never put Jimmy Choo pumps or L.L. Bean Camp Moccasins or Air Jordans or novelty Minions flip-flops on the ground?

How 'bout Sperry Top-Siders?

Anyone else surprised that a 21 year old National Guardsman had access to these documents? How the hell did this kid get that kind of clearance?

The National Guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group called Thug Shaker Central, where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games.

new board description

lol

apparently he altered some of the leaked classified documents. It doesn't seem clear to me if this is Pentagon damage limitation or even the dumb kid trying some damage limitation or he just altered them to make some exaggerated point about US military overreach that he might have been discussing with his racist message board buddies. lol, he looks 16 years old.

I'd read that some of the documents were altered but I didn't know it was suggested he had done the altering? I was under impression they had got altered by someone else somewhere along the line on their winding path out into the open?

As to being surprised someone so low had this level of access, in some ways it seems surprising but I'd previously read a huge number of people have seemingly high levels of access. Difficult to really know

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/jack-teixeira-discord-document-leak/

Online, the suspect in the breach of dozens of classified documents took on a persona seemingly at odds with his military career

Other members of Teixeira’s server have showed The Post video of Teixeira shouting racist and antisemitic slurs before firing a rifle and said he referenced government raids at Ruby Ridge in Idaho and in Waco, Tex. — events with deep resonance among right-wing, anti-government extremists.

Being a racist and antisemite is hardly at odds with a military career.

Come on, apparently he was just being ironic.

...

He only said racist and antisemitic things to his friends because he wants to never forget that evil exists.

Being a racist and antisemite is hardly at odds with a military career.

― "The pudding incident?" (Boring, Maryland), Friday, April 14, 2023 9:25 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah, I mean, I won't go so far as to paint all military people with so broad a brush, but it's certainly not unusual!

https://media.tenor.com/l8h6A5YS54gAAAAC/dancing-tom-jones.gif

It has made me wonder what would be the ILXOR thread that would cause some one to pull out state secrets to show dominance on a thread. So not going to happen, indeed? Steely Dan/Fleetwood Mac/Skunk Baxter? DMB driving over rivers in Chicago?

Pineapple on pizza - C/D?

https://telegra.ph/Tolko-chestnyj-boj-nikakogo-dogovornyaka-04-14

Any thoughts on what Prigozhin is saying here? Suggesting an end to the special military operation and declaring it a success.

Setting expectations for the Russian public that the war this summer will mainly be fought over the territories in eastern Ukraine that Putin 'annexed', instead of a victorious push to Kyiv?

" The Russian deep state is going through a serious crisis today.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are in doubt today, or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state want to urgently return to their normal life, old habits and comfort.".

Re-reading the whole thing I'm guessing he's being sarcastic about ending the SMO. Would seem pretty weird for Prigozhin to be the one floating the idea of declaring. "The deep state are tired of it we should totally pack it in for an easy life, yeah right". I don't know, difficult to parse the tone of it in places

By Adam Pemble
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — American-made Patriot missiles have arrived in Ukraine, the country’s defense minister said Wednesday, providing Kyiv with a long-sought new shield against the Russian airstrikes that have devastated cities and civilian infrastructure.

The U.S. agreed in October to send the surface-to-air systems, which can target aircraft, cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles such as those that Russia has used to bombard residential areas and the Ukrainian power grid.

“Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a tweet.

The missiles are the latest contribution from Western allies, who have also pledged tanks, artillery and some types of fighter jets as Ukraine gears up for an expected counteroffensive.
...“Our air defenders have mastered (the Patriot systems) as far as they could. And our partners have kept their word,” Reznikov wrote.

Experts have cautioned that the system’s effectiveness is limited and that it may not significantly change the shape of the war, even though it will add to Ukraine’s arsenal against its bigger enemy.
The Patriot was first deployed by the U.S. in the 1980s. The system costs approximately $4 million per missile, and the launchers cost about $10 million each, analysts say. At such a cost, it’s not advantageous to use the Patriot to shoot down the smaller, cheaper Iranian drones that Russia has been buying and using in Ukraine.

In other developments Wednesday, China denied recent reports that Chinese drones have been found on Ukraine battlefields. China has insisted that it will not help arm Russia, one of its key allies...

I read that Kyiv is running short on missiles for their primarily Russian/Soviet anti-aircraft defense systems and with no way to replenish them, the need is becoming urgent to switch to NATO systems.

But if Patriot systems are that expensive to use, what can they have for everyday use against appropriate Russian weapons? Also what do they use against all those drones?

Anyway, Ukraine troops are about to being trained to use Abrams tanks, and have been trained by US etc to a lot of other things I'd assumed they were already trained by Ukraine to do; also,

Though Poland and Slovakia have donated Soviet-style MiG-29 fighter jets, and the United Kingdom and Poland have offered to train Ukrainian pilots, the idea of supplying F-16 Fighting Falcon jets or A-10C “Warthog” attack planes remains a bridge too far for the Biden administration.

Stoltenberg told reporters discussions on whether and how to offer different airframes are still underway.

Earlier this year, two Ukrainian pilots visited a military base in Tucson — likely with the Arizona Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing, which flies F-16s — to help the U.S. determine how long it might take to teach them to fly advanced Western aircraft, NBC News first reported in March. The Pentagon has not released any further information on their time in the simulators.

But Reznikov isn’t giving up hope.

“We’ve heard ‘no, it’s impossible’ a lot,” he wrote. “But I have seen firsthand how the impossible can become possible.”

(speaking of

Also related, like (leak-threatened) intel sources in Wagner Group---with btw mention of the group’s plans to strengthen its presence across Africa and in Haiti. :
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html

Wagners are disrupting how to win friends and influence people

https://www.tvguide.com/a/img/resize/904c9d43866d980fa448ffbc36416e4ad7fcd274/catalog/provider/1/6/1-172399218.jpg

Okay, now it's time for the ethnic cleansing part:

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Thursday that allows the deportation of Ukrainian citizens from the territories declared annexed by Russia if they are considered a "national security threat."

According to the decree published online, residents from the annexed territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson who have not taken Russian citizenship will be recognized as foreigners...

The deportations have been going on for some time, and according to Hanna Maliar there have been replacements from remote parts of Russia brought in to replace them, for at least 8 months. In telegram she seems to be saying this is mostly in Luhansk

It did make me wonder about Mariupol in particular, and Melitopol to a lesser extent. If there has been significant settling or population swap how that affects things should Ukraine get to a point of being able to retake the land bridge. While there has been significant deportation I'm not clear to what level the city is being re-populated with Russians

Add to that the reports on orphan placement that sound decidedly sinister.

I just heard that an activist that I knew from the Shelltosea campaign 10 years ago was killed fighting the Russians in the Ukraine. Had been in Syria beforehand. I hadn't realised I knew anybody who had done anything like that, but a link to a short article on him dying from teh Irish Times was circulated through an otherwise defunct chatlist yesterday.

a daft bugger but a fella i was very fond of always all the same. rip.

strikes me that the last time i met him i was with an ilxor, strangely enough

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fu-CmxBXwAQ5ni5.jpg

(Chomsky had some bullshit to say in the New Statesman; in unrelated news, the Wall Street Journal published a story this week revealing that he was a friend of Jeffrey Epstein's.)

I think a careful perusal of this thread would reveal more than one post by more than one ilxor that insists on considering that the USA is a doer of bad things, too. It seems relevant to me, but only as one small part of evaluating the war as a whole. Suspicion of US war policy is always justified.

Indeed. But having read the New Statesman interview, it's clear(er than ever) that Chomsky's perspective is basically that the US's bad deeds are the only ones that count.

Yeah, my computer's running slow, but somewhere upthread I commented on an essay where Chomksy was just put out w Putin for providing NATO a chance to jump in and do its thing---also supposedly subverting an offer or inclination of P.'s to talk peace soon after incursion: no evidence provided, that I recall, and seemed like Putin probably didn't think he needed to talk peace until he'd achieved some significant military victory, which seemed then like it might be coming pretty soon.

He's had *some* victories, like finally taking Mariupol, but not enough to push for peace talks, that I've noticed.

No "See? I want peace," accompanied by actually refraining from bombing the fuck out of apartment buildings etc. for a little while, or offering to.

HIIII! Wussia sez it shot down two dwones ovew da Kwemwin in what it cwaims was an attempt on Putin's wife - nu one is wepowted injuwed (๑•́ ₃ •̀๑)https://t.co/obzX6uI3VS

— Bweaking NuwuS (@BBCBweaking) May 3, 2023

May 22 (Reuters) - The governor of Russia's Belgorod region said on Monday that a Ukrainian "sabotage group" had entered Russian territory in the Graivoron district bordering Ukraine and was being repelled by Russian security forces.

Unverified reports of attacks well past midnight on the main town of the region bordering Ukraine were posted on social media. Reports on some channels said the local headquarters of the interior ministry and FSB security service had been targeted.

he Ukrainian outlet Hromadske cited Ukrainian military intelligence as saying two armed Russian opposition groups, the Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), were carrying out the attack.

Hromadske said both were composed of Russian nationals committed to fighting the Kremlin authorities. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted that Kyiv was "watching the events in the Belgorod region" but was not involved.

The Liberty of Russia Legion is a Ukraine-based Russian militia led by Russian opposition figure Ilya Ponomarev that says it is working inside Russia for Putin's overthrow.
t said on Twitter it had "completely liberated" the border town of Kozinka and forward units had reached the district centre of Graivoron, further east.

"Moving on. Russia will be free!" it wrote.

Belgorod regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov imposed a "counter-terrorism regime" allowing authorities greater powers to clamp down on people's movement and communications.

...The Russia Volunteer Corps published video footage late on Monday which showed what it said was a fighter inspecting a captured armoured vehicle. Another video showed what it said were fighters operating an armoured vehicle on a country road.

Other videos posted on Russian and Ukrainian social media channels showed pictures and video of what were described as captured Russian servicemen and their identity documents.

little green men

and pretty interesting how different Ponomarev and Kapustin are

this new yorker piece Two Weeks At the Front in Ukraine is really v good.

Mr Motivator

The leader of Russia's Wagner private mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says Moscow's plan to "demilitarize" Ukraine failed and that the invasion of its neighbor "turned Ukraine's army into one of the most powerful in the world." In an interview with pro-Kremlin political observer Konstantin Dolgov, the full version of which was published on May 24, Prigozhin said Russia's aggression made Ukrainians "a nation known to the entire world." Prigozhin added that Wagner had lost 20,000 troops during fight for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and suggested that the war may end with a mutiny by Russian soldiers.

v curious game he's playing. kofman and a colleague referred to him performing the role of a social media influencer in the war (one of the interesting themes of the new yorker piece is 'what does trench warfare look like in an age of internet and mobile communication'). looks like it's a political play, but if he's taking on shogyu and gerasimov then he's taking on some very experienced players indeed.