so far, mostly good, it seems.
...For the most part, I think MLB’s rule changes have been a success. The main observable change is tempo; games are lasting less time despite a similar amount of action. That’s a big change, and as measured by pitch violations, it hasn’t excessively affected any particular team or player. Instead, the game is just moving faster, which was the stated goal of the changes.Changing the rules to increase stolen bases seems to have worked roughly as expected: Teams are running more frequently and with more success. Those steals aren’t making the game unrecognizable, though; we’re talking about an extra half a steal per game, give or take. I think there was reason to worry whether steals would become undefendable, but the evidence suggests that hasn’t happened. Catchers who control the running game are more valuable than in recent years, but that’s also hardly an unwelcome change. For the most part, I think that the extra steals leave the game looking like a slightly faster version of itself, just like the pitch timer changes.
On the downside, the new restrictions on infield shifts haven’t accomplished much of anything. Lefties are reaching base more frequently when they put the ball on the ground, but not at pre-shift rates. Defensive positioning is still taking hits away, particularly in the middle of the field. Righty batters still have a slight BABIP advantage on lefties thanks to infield positioning. If the league wants to fix that disparity, there will have to be stricter shift restrictions, probably centered around keeping the area behind second base empty.
If you were hoping for mostly the same baseball, congratulations: you’ve got it. If you were hoping for teams to start prioritizing speedy lefty singles hitters, or for batters to start trying to keep the ball on the ground to take advantage of the new defensive restrictions, that hasn’t panned out. Teams are scoring more this year, but that’s mostly unrelated to rules changes. I think that’s great; from my perspective, the league has threaded the needle by affecting how games look without putting their thumb on the scale of offensive and defensive balance.
― z_tbd, Wednesday, 31 May 2023 15:47 (ten months ago) link