2022-23 Hot Stove thread

That chart made me laugh. If you overpay enough people, you look come out looking pretty good.

midseason form

Jacob deGrom felt some tightness in his left side, and — given the cold weather and how early it is in camp, we’re told — they’re going to hold him back a day or two. We’re told the seriousness level is such that he would play through it if it were the regular season.

— Levi Weaver (@ThreeTwoEephus) February 15, 2023

good luck, texas

for anyone who cares about the bally sports mess, today is the day of their first missed interest payment, which kicks off the bankruptcy process. the next 30 days is a grace period for the missed payment. at that point, mid-march, it'll become more clear what kind of bankruptcy this is going to be, whether it's one negotiated and handled with MLB participation or more of a free-form chaotic thing

Diamond Sports' future was a topic on this week's podcast.

Listen here: https://t.co/jDj7q2c1tj pic.twitter.com/5JsP3v7CUI

— John Ourand (@Ourand_SBJ) February 15, 2023

a couple arbitration things. i guess the big one is corbin burnes. he asked for $10.75M, brewers countered with $10.01M, he lost his case. burnes wasn't happy about it:

Every fear that going to an arbitration hearing against Corbin Burnes could harm his relationship with the Brewers was founded.

“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired],” Burnes said. pic.twitter.com/Xv8DFyiKde

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 16, 2023

sounds like during the hearing, the brewers (or their reps in the case at least) tried to blame not making the 2022 playoffs on burnes (who pitched very well last year), and he's pissed.

in less notable news, ryan helsley also lost his arbitration case. he asked for $3M, will receive $2.15M instead. he was one of the very best relievers in the game last year and can throw 104 mph, but ok cardinals

Seems like a bad way for the brewers to save 749k

Textbook illustration of why arbitration hearings are a minefield to be avoided.

(If possible, obviously, and $750,000 is very avoidable.)

machado opting out after this season:

Machado confirms he plans to opt out at the end of this season, said Padres know where he stands when it comes to a new deal. Noted the market has changed dramatically since he signed.

“There’s a lot of money out there.”

“As a player about to opt out, it’s pretty good to see.”

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) February 17, 2023

Just don’t have a subpar season after you plan to opt out

yeah, kinda gutsy! to be fair, though, i think the market has shifted such that even if he had a relatively disastrous season, he would still probably be able to get a raise by opting out and signing with a team willing to snag him based on his record so far

He would have to completely implode to not make off like a bandit next offseason

looks like the White Sox have snagged Elvis Andrus for $3M, 1 year

One of those middle infielders I'm forever falling into the trap of thinking is a viable 3,000-hit candidate as they approach 30 (Andrus had 1,457 hits and was coming of a career high 191 going into his age-29 season). His career defensive stats are good, so it's too bad he'll be primarily remembered for his disastrous 7th inning against the Jays in the bat-flip game.

https://defector.com/the-search-for-the-real-jason-heyward-continues

i wish the dodgers good luck, i hope heyward gets it together but even if not he's possibly a good piece for a championship contender. would be nice, if he does get it together, that bellinger does as well. so it feels like the best possible even swap outcome.

he seems like someone who might benefit from a year overseas to try out all of his possible swing mechanics with a bit less of a spotlight on his struggles

hell, pretty much everyone would benefit from a year overseas, we should all try that next year

Apparently Machado is getting an 11 year extension at $350M. Yow.

only some of that is new years and money, but yeah.

The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Getting $170M for your age 35 to age 40 seasons still feels like a big win for Machado.

oh for sure! plus they can go on and put that padres hat on his hall of flame plaque

He’s so close to being a slam dunk HOF it’s kind of wild

he's pretty close. i'd rank guys like Freeman, Arenado, Harper and Betts ahead of him in terms of HoF odds; but i wouldn't bet against him at this point

i would bet $30 against him. but i'd bet $80 for him. and $1 on "becomes a home plate umpire", just because that one is worth tons if you win

For the fourth consecutive season, I had the AI create a motto for every MLB team. pic.twitter.com/DE05AkuqnB

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) March 4, 2023

Former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is finalizing a one-year contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan, sources tell ESPN. Bauer was released by the Dodgers and went unsigned by MLB teams after serving a record domestic-violence suspension. Deal will be official tonight.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 13, 2023

bye bitch!

all the bally sports / diamond fallout continues. not sure anyone cares about the "how do i watch the games on tv" part but there's going to be an arrangement where mlb takes over the broadcasts for some of the teams affected and temporarily stream the games for free for locals...but only for 4 of the teams affected. i think. also, some of the teams that were counting on RSN money are going to get less of it. the gist of it was that the RSNs were paying too much money to some of the teams with lower viewerships

Regarding the DSG bankruptcy, these are the 8 MLB teams likely to get their RSN fees cut according to MLB insider because the current deals are uneconomical: Diamondbacks, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, A's, Pirates, Twins, Rangers.

— Mike Ozanian (@MikeOzanian) March 15, 2023

The Rangers can't get viewers because everyone's too excited to go see them in person at the world's largest Tractor Supply.

Torn between wanting players to keep getting paid $$$$ and my desire to see the fallout from the RSN bubble bursting completely. The money would never work out but it would be cool to have local sports broadcast on channels in the UHF range again.

Not player movement, and behind a paywall, but The Athletic's starting pitcher rankings, in tiers:

https://theathletic.com/4328582/2023/03/23/mlb-aces-project-pitcher-rankings/

They've got Manoah 20th--I'm biased and would have him higher.

Pitcherlist has him at 22 (mind you it’s fantasy focused). But it makes sense. None of his pitches are crazy overwhelming - his strikeout rate is pretty middle of the road and he probably has some luck on his side last year. 20-22 range still lands you as a solid number two option on most teams or the staff ace on a weaker rotation.

Alcantara had 6 complete games last year?! Insane

Aaand Manoah is the opening day starter.

only pitchers i'd consider moving him in front of on that list are gallen (impressive year last year, but can he keep it up?) and strider (obviously electric, but short track record)

Should I get a subscription to the Athletic??!

idk if it's the case anymore now that it's owned by nyt, but you used to be able to get it for ludicrously cheap. i paid something like $24 for two years

Athletic is great imo but it might depend on your team, I don’t think all teams have writers?

Many teams dont have beat writers

Aaand Manoah is the opening day starter.

Surprised--assumed it'd be Gausman.

I'm not big on BABIP when it comes to awards voting, but it's something I'd definitely pay attention to if placing a bet on next year's Cy Young winner. Gausman, as well documented, had historically bad luck last year: highest BABIP for a starting pitcher since WWII, I think. If you believe such things tend to even out year-to-year (probably not true, it takes a few seasons), note that the Jays have improved their defense, and also that, for whatever reason, shifting seemed to hurt Gausman the first half of the season, I would think he'd be a good guy to put money on for this year's CYA.

It's free mlb.tv day for T-Mobile customers

While there’s agreement on dollars between star CF Bryan Reynolds and Pirates, a major conceptual issue has prevented a deal. Reynolds has moved a lot to try to get a deal done but there remains a disagreement on this key point. Unknown if the sides may push it past 4:10 deadline

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 30, 2023

unfortunately, just before Reynolds was going to sign, a disagreement surfaced regarding the ontological status of concepts involving abstract objects, and negotiations quickly fell apart

Quality post

apparently brian reynold's 6-year, $107 million extension is the pirates' a) first ever nine-figure deal b) first deal with a no-trade clause since 2006