hall of fame, next vote...

Totally agree, and part of the argument for both Munson and Tiant. Tiant was a better pitcher for Cleveland, but he became a legend in Boston.

I'd even extend that argument to someone like Jim Rice. There are many players who should be in ahead of him, yes, but I don't think you can dismiss him out of hand without first factoring in that for years he was widely viewed as a sure-thing HOF'er. Would I rather see Lou Whitaker or Dwight Evans in? Yes, but I get why Rice was voted in.

Yeah rice is a good one vs jack morris who i do not think of as famous, the One Big Game aside

jack morris was a jack mcdowell peak level pitcher in terms of quality, w/better durability and that one game.

I've mentioned this before: as valuable as fame in getting into the HOF is mystique. I won't even put it in quotation marks--it does exist, and I think it's different than fame. Billy Williams wasn't famous, but from the time I started watching in the early '70s, he had mystique: he was the best pure hitter in the game (or, expressed differently, had the sweetest swing). I don't think Eddie Murray was necessarily famous, but he had mystique: RBI guy, clutch hitter, consistent. Denny McClain was famous, and then he was infamous; Juan Marichal had mystique.

Sometimes, it aligns with actual value: Ted Williams. Sometimes it's disproportionate: I'd say Morris had it far in excess of his value.

freddie freeman is getting into near-lock territory. very similar kind of career to goldschmidt, consistently excellent, across a very similar time period too

https://theathletic.com/4553833/2023/05/26/baseball-hall-of-fame-active-players-cases/

I think betts is in already and ohtani is in for sheer Fame reasons

i am going to read that, but every time i read jayson stark i become more convinced he gets paid by the word and has some amazing contract situation that accidentally allows him to use as many words as he wants

Thoughts on @jaysonst's list? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/O2M0eyqE29

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 23, 2023

oh, i see in the article he also has two more categories:

USED TO BE IN THE RED ZONE
Craig Kimbrel
Kenley Jansen
Andrew McCutchen
Chris Sale
Evan Longoria

CASE NOT CLOSED
José Ramírez
J.T. Realmuto
Carlos Correa

used to be in the red zone, isolated, is an awesome phrase

Many thoughts, but surrounded by six-year-olds for a couple more hours.

Planning!

In Right Now -- agree on all.

In the Red Zone -- I guess so, although all would really have to take a nosedive not to get in; I might move one or two up to In Right Now.

On a Path -- Remove Altuve. He was practically a sure thing before the scandal, now he's winning polls on "most unpopular player in the game." Move Judge up one group. Ohtani is so unique, maybe move him up too, I don't know.

Get Back to Me -- Long, long way to go; right now, there are players I'd put ahead of both (Alvarez and Ramirez for sure).

Jacob deGrom is another relatively unique case. No idea where to put him--if can stay healthy for a season and win a third Cy, he should be almost automatic.

I'll mention two more. 1) I think, because he got such a huge jump early on, Stanton belongs on there somewhere. 382 HR in your age-33 season can't be written off, recent troubles aside, unless there's a long-term health issue I'm not aware of (there may be); 2) Xander Bogaerts -- 36.8 bWAR at 30, middling MVP support five years running.

Stanton wont break 500 doesnt play the field has no postseason resume has no fanbase/cult of personality and is always hurt it’s very unlikely

You were right about Mark Teixeira a few years ago, so I'll defer to your up-close proximity.

Another addition: Luis Arraez in the Get Back to Me group.

Bbref similarity scores for GS:

Ralph Kiner (910.3) *
Darryl Strawberry (905.5)
Ryan Howard (900.2)
Jay Buhner (897.5)
Danny Tartabull (885.5)
Richie Sexson (883.9)
Jeromy Burnitz (874.2)
Pat Burrell (873.0)
Bryce Harper (872.9)
Troy Glaus (871.6

I'd use the other list--you're comparing him to guys at the end of their careers.

Age-32 list:

Harmon Killebrew (932.1) *
Jose Canseco (922.1)
Ralph Kiner (910.3) *
Willie McCovey (892.9) *
Rocky Colavito (890.1)
Mike Schmidt (888.8) *
Jim Thome (887.8) *
Fred McGriff (882.0) *
Reggie Jackson (876.7) *
Carlos Delgado (876.6)

7/10 HOF'ers.

With Stanton clearly in decline, that list is too optimistic. I'd split the difference.

which gets you a players somehow still on the cusp of the HOF. if only he could ever put together 3 seasons in a row without a horrible injury. if he somehow does that at the end of his playing years, he might still be able to make it. his hitting has never been anything but great when he's on the field

ok i already feel ridiculously overoptimistic in saying that, lol. i think he still has a smidge of a HOF chance, but it would take a very unexpected late-career spree, along with some endurance to play a few more solid older years than the norm, which seems very doubtful given his injury history

Splitting the difference would be 8 HOF'ers/20, or 40%, which seems about right to me, but maybe too optimistic. Are all his injuries different, or is it like a recurring knee problem? The MVP and 58-HR season will help.

His legs are falling apart

i'd be tempted to throw adley into the 'get back to me in five years' category, but apart from the toll catching takes, he didn't get to the majors until he was 24. that's a full four years later than wander franco, and a real disadvantage for his career numbers (and earnings)

I went down the list of active bWAR leaders for pitchers, and beyond guys already mentioned, not very promising; you might have to go outside the Top 100, all the way down to Spencer Strider.

basically agree with all of stark's picks except Goldschmidt seems like he's already a lock. also agree with the "used to be in the red zone", i doubt any of them will get in.

I might have given Adam Wainwright a 5% chance going into this season--a couple more years like 2022 would have given him some decent old-school credentials--but looks like the jig's up.

grienke is an interesting one, doesnt strike me as an auto hof'er...only 1 cy, gonna get to 3000k's i guess tho

he profiles pretty close to sabathia

nine homers tho

lock.jpg

CC comes on the ballot in 2025, which looks to be a pretty favorable moment. Beltre and (I'm assuming) Helton will go in next year, and Ichiro--who'll also debut in 2025--will be automatic. Otherwise, he'll be competing with Mauer and maybe Wagner. He should at least debut at over 50%, I would think.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2025.shtml

Remove Altuve. He was practically a sure thing before the scandal, now he's winning polls on "most unpopular player in the game."

User polls in 2023 will have no bearing on BBWAA voting in 2035. The scandal is already fading especially after the WS last year and increasing awareness of other teams trying to cheat, and it's well known (or should be) that altuve barely used the trash cans. He only gets so much hate for being the team's mascot that year, and I expect the average BBWAA voter to use a few more brain cells judging him than bitter yankee and dodger fans.

No real precedent, so I don't know, maybe. I think he'll be on the ballot for a few years, at the very least. The BBWAA just seems to be moving more and more in a "character counts" direction. (I'll have to read that book on the scandal--as you say, supposedly it minimizes Altuve's role.)

The BBWAA just seems to be moving more and more in a "character counts" direction

Beltran definitely took some punishment on the ballot for 2017 but he was also considered one of the masterminds. He also didn't really do that badly - for a guy who's in that "he'll definitely get in eventually but he's definitely not inner circle" zone, 46% in his first year seems well within non-scandal-ridden expectations.

The book on Altuve's involvement is shut imo - people recorded and quantified every trash can bang and figured out who did and didn't use them almost immediately, and it showed that Altuve barely engaged. His teammates have come out and said that he's a reactive hitter and he felt like he hit worse when he knew what was coming. He obviously isn't innocent but he won't be remembered as someone who had to cheat to hit. Only reason people still think he's a big cheater is the ridiculously stupid buzzer theory that redditors insist on believing despite there never being a shred of actual evidence for it.

What's this based on...well, Jaffe and Posnanski have written about it at length, and I think they're probably a decent barometer. And it has moved beyond steroids. I won't mention specific cases, because inevitably they'll be someone jump on here and lecture me about linking A to B. Anyway, we'll see when we see. The first thing Altuve will have to do is continue playing well for another five years.

Found the book on the discount site I order from, so it's on its way.

When it comes to steroids, younger voters are way more forgiving than the older ones

I think that's probably true, but the Hall is still zero-for-known-users. Maybe A-Rod or Manny or Sheffield or Cano will will knock down that wall at some point. But it hasn't happened yet. (And the Veteran's Committee, for obvious reasons, has proven an even tougher sell.)

Can you link me to what Jaffe and Pos have written? I'm genuinely lost. I forgot about Vizquel, but younger voters were never going to vote for him anyway just based on his performance.

I think I can dig that up--Posnanski's may be behind a paywall now.

https://theathletic.com/2250850/2020/12/11/top-mlb-outside-the-hall-of-fame-curt-schilling/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-curt-schilling/

Had them linked on my homepage--both about Schilling. You can access Jaffe's piece; I can put Joe's on a Google Doc, if you want.

Vizquel went from 37% to 42% to 52% his first three years--that sure looked like a HOF trajectory. In 2021, he started to reverse course, and he'll probably be gone in a couple of years.

altuve, who’s finishing up the prime of his career, is 33rd in WAR/162…among second basemen. has some more work to do for sure

the standards for the hall in baseball compared to basketball (the only other big 4 sport I feel like I know well) are so stark. a guy like altuve in the NBA would have had an airtight hall of fame case 5 years ago

Oh, I thought you were talking more than Schilling. Like I said, I think he's a special case.

I don't think a team-wide cheating scandal is going to hurt Altuve one bit. It'll be ancient history. If he makes it to 3000 hits, most people aren't going to be talking about 2017, they're gonna be talking about his 3000 hits. They'll talk about his Astros winning 4 pennants in 6 years (or whatever it ends up being). And they'll talk about how short he is and how unlikely his story was. Jaffe himself says that Altuve will probably go in with 3000 hits. Not sure what Pos says about it here though.

xp I think Vizquel's jumps can be explained entirely by the massive ballot cleanup that happened those two years. I wouldn't be surprised if he had stalled there anyway. But the allegations against him are so far off from the trash can scandal, and Beltran debuting with over twice the support as post-allegations Vizquel is proof enough of that.

Again, I don't know (my "remove Altuve" was too categorical)--there's just no precedent that I know of. The closest, weirdly enough, might be Gaylord Perry, who--even weirder--become beloved for the very cheating he may or may not have engaged in.

Kevin--I take your post to mean that the basketball HOF is much more peak oriented, or championship-team oriented, or both, and that once you take care of that, nothing much else matters.

i'd definitely say that the mlb HOF would sooner enshrine a guy who was "very good" for a very long time 10 times out of 10 over a guy who was MVP/best in the game for a brief window, and who didn't accumulate the same numbers as the "very good" guy. there's still the argument that a baseball player requires longevity almost above all else. which is why legitimate "best in the game" types like mattingly, murphy, will clark, hershiser, etc have never made much progress vs other lesser players who just happened to stick around at their own personal peaks for twice as long. which is why it's funny when people claim a player is more "hall of very good" because a lot of those players have made it.

in the NBA you see guys like tracy mcgrady who will make it in for a brief, dominant peak, and someone like lamarcus aldridge is going to have a much tougher case.

Kevin--I take your post to mean that the basketball HOF is much more peak oriented, or championship-team oriented, or both, and that once you take care of that, nothing much else matters.

― clemenza, Sunday, June 4, 2023 8:56 PM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

for sure, it’s also just much more inclusive overall

i do the mlb hall is probably going to consider many more peak guys, as time goes on. it's arguably better and more accurate to the game to have a hall full of hershiser/gooden types than jack morris types