hall of fame, next vote...

is beltran not getting 50% due to the sign stealing or

I don't think he was ever a first ballot guy but yes definitely

is there any kind of philosophical split between HOF nominators who look at all pitchers (SP and RP) based on the same criteria and all other players based on the same criteria, versus nominators who compare catchers only to other catchers and RPs only to other RPs and make their choices that way? i'm thinking about it like how the oscars lump all movies together and so you have people trying to compare the merits of "all quiet on the western front" vs "everything everywhere all at once" versus the ebert philosophy of judging a movie based on how well it accomplishes what it is trying to do. i don't know if this makes any sense.

it seems obvious that if you're judging for example buster posey's worthiness as a HOFer you should be comparing him to all other catchers, but then the HOF ballot has everyone lumped together so the implication is you're comparing posey to all the other players nominated that year regardless of their position

it does make sense! i think there are both, along with many other splits in approach. there are also some people who make a habit of maxing out their ballot, selecting 10 players even if they're kind of iffy after a few of them, while there are others that will only vote for a handful (or less) and leave the rest of the ballot blank

I think comparing to other players at the same position makes sense to an extent, but my personal opinion is that there is not all positions have players who, on their own, provide the same value. relief pitchers are the obvious example, they’re akin to role players or a sixth man in the NBA; occasionally you will have a special case like manu ginobili or mariano rivera, but generally these players play less and provide less value, and (imo crucially) are *selected* for these roles because they would not be able to handle a bigger load

catchers aren’t quite the same, and philosophies are going to differ, but there is a similar argument to be made that shorter careers and fewer innings just simply means less value. and something that I feel isn’t said enough is that generally teams will try to have their top catching prospects switch positions for this reason, to extend their career — bryce harper is the most obvious example. so it stands to reason that the talent pool of the catchers that remain isn’t as strong as like, shortstops

Jaffe's JAWS system for the HOF is based on the idea that you compare positionally--although I don't think the implication is that you need all positions represented equally.

again — different philosophies, but is it not? the average JAWS for a center fielder (of which there are 19) is 58.1, and that’s not including trout. for the 16 catchers, it’s 44.2

if one takes it to its logical extension, there is a lower bar to entry for catchers (and certainly relief pitchers)

The Oscars lump all the movies together but voters can only select one winner in each category. HOF ballots have "multiple winners" so comparisons can, and should, be made according to position.

This becomes a problem if someone wants to vote for more than ten players, but most voters don't (in most years).

the world does not, in theory, need closers. most of them are failed starters anyway

but you have to have a catcher every single inning, every single pitch, and it requires skills and experience that other ballplayers rarely have. so for me the question of joe mauer vs mike trout is far less important than joe mauer vs an average or replacement level catcher.

i’m not even sure ‘replacement-level’, which assumes a ready supply of fungible quad-a players, should apply to catchers — there just aren’t that many guys who can do an even passable job of it (which is why austin hedges, coming off a .489 OPS (!) season, will earn $5m this year)

mauer hit .328/.409/.481 in 897 games as a catcher (and was more than playable at 1B/DH). JAWS has him as the sventh-greatest catcher of all time. he’s not ray guy; hes travis kelce

you need a catcher every single pitch, for sure. unfortunately most of the top catchers, once they’re made it to the point where their teams want them to be long-term catchers, are catching about 60% of the pitches. which introduces some wrinkles

I would put Munson in, for all the reasons Omar mentioned. The parallels to Posey are uncanny: from WAR to awards to World Series to shortened career to being on each other's Similarity Score list. The biggest difference was that Thurman was never picked as the Face of Baseball because he looked kind of gnarly and scowled a lot.

for awhile when i was a younger MLB i thought Munson actually was in the HOF, he just checked a lot of the boxes. He was a legend.

it's weird to look back and see just how many of these players whose names resonated w/me as a kid when looking at the old stats, whose stats were largely massive, are on the outside looking in. Some worthy of inclusion, some probably not but awesome regardless: Norm Cash, Rocky Colavito, Dick Allen, Graig Nettles, Frank Howard, George Foster, Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans, Buddy Bell, guys like that. Not saying all would deserve it, but it's preposterous that a lot of these guys wound up w/less HOF voting percentages than K-Rod.

Luis Tiant, there's another guy i always thought was in the HOF

Im a big hall guy and think the Fame part is the undervalued resource rn

Like i dont think fame when i think billy wagner but do think fame for scheffield for ex

Totally agree, and part of the argument for both Munson and Tiant. Tiant was a better pitcher for Cleveland, but he became a legend in Boston.

I'd even extend that argument to someone like Jim Rice. There are many players who should be in ahead of him, yes, but I don't think you can dismiss him out of hand without first factoring in that for years he was widely viewed as a sure-thing HOF'er. Would I rather see Lou Whitaker or Dwight Evans in? Yes, but I get why Rice was voted in.

Yeah rice is a good one vs jack morris who i do not think of as famous, the One Big Game aside

jack morris was a jack mcdowell peak level pitcher in terms of quality, w/better durability and that one game.

I've mentioned this before: as valuable as fame in getting into the HOF is mystique. I won't even put it in quotation marks--it does exist, and I think it's different than fame. Billy Williams wasn't famous, but from the time I started watching in the early '70s, he had mystique: he was the best pure hitter in the game (or, expressed differently, had the sweetest swing). I don't think Eddie Murray was necessarily famous, but he had mystique: RBI guy, clutch hitter, consistent. Denny McClain was famous, and then he was infamous; Juan Marichal had mystique.

Sometimes, it aligns with actual value: Ted Williams. Sometimes it's disproportionate: I'd say Morris had it far in excess of his value.

freddie freeman is getting into near-lock territory. very similar kind of career to goldschmidt, consistently excellent, across a very similar time period too

https://theathletic.com/4553833/2023/05/26/baseball-hall-of-fame-active-players-cases/

I think betts is in already and ohtani is in for sheer Fame reasons

i am going to read that, but every time i read jayson stark i become more convinced he gets paid by the word and has some amazing contract situation that accidentally allows him to use as many words as he wants

Thoughts on @jaysonst's list? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/O2M0eyqE29

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 23, 2023

oh, i see in the article he also has two more categories:

USED TO BE IN THE RED ZONE
Craig Kimbrel
Kenley Jansen
Andrew McCutchen
Chris Sale
Evan Longoria

CASE NOT CLOSED
José Ramírez
J.T. Realmuto
Carlos Correa

used to be in the red zone, isolated, is an awesome phrase

Many thoughts, but surrounded by six-year-olds for a couple more hours.

Planning!

In Right Now -- agree on all.

In the Red Zone -- I guess so, although all would really have to take a nosedive not to get in; I might move one or two up to In Right Now.

On a Path -- Remove Altuve. He was practically a sure thing before the scandal, now he's winning polls on "most unpopular player in the game." Move Judge up one group. Ohtani is so unique, maybe move him up too, I don't know.

Get Back to Me -- Long, long way to go; right now, there are players I'd put ahead of both (Alvarez and Ramirez for sure).

Jacob deGrom is another relatively unique case. No idea where to put him--if can stay healthy for a season and win a third Cy, he should be almost automatic.

I'll mention two more. 1) I think, because he got such a huge jump early on, Stanton belongs on there somewhere. 382 HR in your age-33 season can't be written off, recent troubles aside, unless there's a long-term health issue I'm not aware of (there may be); 2) Xander Bogaerts -- 36.8 bWAR at 30, middling MVP support five years running.

Stanton wont break 500 doesnt play the field has no postseason resume has no fanbase/cult of personality and is always hurt it’s very unlikely

You were right about Mark Teixeira a few years ago, so I'll defer to your up-close proximity.

Another addition: Luis Arraez in the Get Back to Me group.

Bbref similarity scores for GS:

Ralph Kiner (910.3) *
Darryl Strawberry (905.5)
Ryan Howard (900.2)
Jay Buhner (897.5)
Danny Tartabull (885.5)
Richie Sexson (883.9)
Jeromy Burnitz (874.2)
Pat Burrell (873.0)
Bryce Harper (872.9)
Troy Glaus (871.6

I'd use the other list--you're comparing him to guys at the end of their careers.

Age-32 list:

Harmon Killebrew (932.1) *
Jose Canseco (922.1)
Ralph Kiner (910.3) *
Willie McCovey (892.9) *
Rocky Colavito (890.1)
Mike Schmidt (888.8) *
Jim Thome (887.8) *
Fred McGriff (882.0) *
Reggie Jackson (876.7) *
Carlos Delgado (876.6)

7/10 HOF'ers.

With Stanton clearly in decline, that list is too optimistic. I'd split the difference.

which gets you a players somehow still on the cusp of the HOF. if only he could ever put together 3 seasons in a row without a horrible injury. if he somehow does that at the end of his playing years, he might still be able to make it. his hitting has never been anything but great when he's on the field

ok i already feel ridiculously overoptimistic in saying that, lol. i think he still has a smidge of a HOF chance, but it would take a very unexpected late-career spree, along with some endurance to play a few more solid older years than the norm, which seems very doubtful given his injury history

Splitting the difference would be 8 HOF'ers/20, or 40%, which seems about right to me, but maybe too optimistic. Are all his injuries different, or is it like a recurring knee problem? The MVP and 58-HR season will help.

His legs are falling apart

i'd be tempted to throw adley into the 'get back to me in five years' category, but apart from the toll catching takes, he didn't get to the majors until he was 24. that's a full four years later than wander franco, and a real disadvantage for his career numbers (and earnings)

I went down the list of active bWAR leaders for pitchers, and beyond guys already mentioned, not very promising; you might have to go outside the Top 100, all the way down to Spencer Strider.

basically agree with all of stark's picks except Goldschmidt seems like he's already a lock. also agree with the "used to be in the red zone", i doubt any of them will get in.

I might have given Adam Wainwright a 5% chance going into this season--a couple more years like 2022 would have given him some decent old-school credentials--but looks like the jig's up.

grienke is an interesting one, doesnt strike me as an auto hof'er...only 1 cy, gonna get to 3000k's i guess tho

he profiles pretty close to sabathia

nine homers tho

lock.jpg

CC comes on the ballot in 2025, which looks to be a pretty favorable moment. Beltre and (I'm assuming) Helton will go in next year, and Ichiro--who'll also debut in 2025--will be automatic. Otherwise, he'll be competing with Mauer and maybe Wagner. He should at least debut at over 50%, I would think.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2025.shtml

Remove Altuve. He was practically a sure thing before the scandal, now he's winning polls on "most unpopular player in the game."

User polls in 2023 will have no bearing on BBWAA voting in 2035. The scandal is already fading especially after the WS last year and increasing awareness of other teams trying to cheat, and it's well known (or should be) that altuve barely used the trash cans. He only gets so much hate for being the team's mascot that year, and I expect the average BBWAA voter to use a few more brain cells judging him than bitter yankee and dodger fans.