To What Extent Does Your Life Revolve Around Alejandro Kirk? (The 2023 Blue Jays Thread)

You could almost turn that into a whole Mad-type running feature: "Charlie O. Finley Arbitration Strategies We'd Like to See."

Brian Cashman: "They tell me Mr. Aaron Judge hits home runs...Gentleman, I ask you: what is a home run?"

Carlos Correa's counsel: "They tell me Mr. Carlos Correa is a physical risk...Gentleman, I ask you: what isn't a risk in this world we live in?"

tl;dr warning: i'm just trying to share some things i read last night and this morning that i thought were interesting. sorry to post a giant blob of text, feel free to skip!
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I thought the arbitration process depends more on how the case is presented? If Bo's people present a WAR-based argument then the management will have to build a case in response. I don't think the arbitrator steps in and says "wait, he didn't hit 40 HRs so he can't make more than $X".

i think this is right, NoTime, and the way i was talking about it was kind of oversimplifying things. but i do think there's been a historical bias toward traditional metrics. there was a series on arbitration on fangraphs a few years ago that, if you're one of the few people on earth who wants to spend their sunday morning reading about baseball arbitration, you might like!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-introduction/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-changing-the-either-or-model/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-evidence-and-admissibility/

Also:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25722707/jeff-passan-wild-wonky-world-mlb-salary-arbitration
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh

it's a lot. but a couple things worth highlighting:

1) here's an overview of how it's supposed to work:

The information the player and team can use during the hearing to present their case is governed by Article VI, Section E, Part 10 (a) & (b) of the CBA. This information includes the player's contribution to the team during the past season (e.g., the player's on-field performance and other qualities such as leadership and fan appeal), the length and consistency of the player's career contributions, the player's past compensation, the existence of any physical or mental defects, the team's recent performance (e.g., the team's record, improvement and attendance) and comparative baseball salaries.

The panel gives the most weight to each side's presentation of comparable baseball salaries. Here, the player and team can only compare the contracts of players whose service time does not exceed one annual service group above the player's service group. For example, Yankees starting pitcher Michael Pineda, who is entering his second year of salary arbitration, would be compared to other starting pitchers who were also entering their second year of salary arbitration.

Information the panel cannot consider during the hearing includes the financial position of the team or player, testimonials or press comments regarding the team's or player's performance, prior contractual negotiations between the team and player, any costs associated with the salary arbitration process (i.e., attorney's fees), and salaries in other sports or occupations.

2) the arbitrators use a variety of methods, and often aren't experts on baseball:

Often, analyses of MLB salary arbitration focus on the fact that the hearings typically only consider traditional, “old school” statistics.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

That last sentence is something else important to focus on: salary arbitrators are typically randomly selected labor lawyers. And while some have a comprehensive knowledge of baseball, it isn’t their day job: arbitrators usually hear many different types of cases, with many different fact patterns. That means that a baseball salary arbitrator may well also arbitrate cases on entirely different matters.

3) to the extent that they use stats, it tends to be old school:

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.

3) from above, "The panel gives the most weight to each side's presentation of comparable baseball salaries." I think this, compared with the arbitrators maybe not being baseball fans, is where sometimes they start to lean on the old school stats. not always, and as NoTime mentioned, it would depend on how the representatives want to present their case. but if the arbitrators are old school guys, or if they're random labor lawyers, it may be easier to make a case using the stats they're most likely to be familiar with. maybe this has changed in recent years, as advanced metrics become more mainstream.

4) some really, really hilariously weird and dumb stuff happens in these hearings

Last January [2018], as they tried to convince a three-person arbitration panel that Mookie Betts deserved the $7.5 million salary they were offering and not the $10.5 million he requested, the Red Sox fashioned a novel approach in the typically staid, lawyerly arbitration room: They played a video talking about how good Kris Bryant was.

The purpose, multiple sources in the room told ESPN, was not simply to lavish praise on the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman but to make their case: As great as Mookie Betts may be, he isn’t Kris Bryant.

what's funny about this is that mookie betts is better (arguably, much better) than kris bryant. that kris bryant video must have kicked ass!

one last addendum - and this one is excruciating, sorry -, but upthread when i mentioned that i thought changing the arbitration process would change how the game is played, i had this in mind:

"Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds."

i don't think reworking arbitration would fundamentally turn the game upside down or anything. i just think it would have an effect. (sorry for being wishy-washy here)

i'm sure some managers don't give a fuck about arbitration, some players are just doing their best and ignoring they money, and of course, players with more than 6 years under their belt aren't involved with arbitration any longer, anyway. but i do think that some managers (mike matheny) were known for having "their guys" that they look out for, and sometimes that would involve keeping a pitcher in longer than necessary to get the all-important "Win", or putting in "the closer" to get the all-important Save even when they were pitching for the 3rd day in a row and had no business being in the game. those extra stat opportunities are important to some younger players. not everyone is trying to max out their salary, but some players do. and for some managers, "looking out for your guys" means paying attention to that and giving them more opportunities.

(it's possible i have just been traumatized by mike matheny and am still searching for explanations to things that have no answers)

as penance for derailing the blue jays thread with arbitration stuff, here is a nice baseball card :)

https://i.imgur.com/cQ6y79E.jpg

You can't derail the Jays thread. First rule of the Jays thread, there are no rules! (I stole that from The Simpsons.)

James used to get hired for arbitration cases (always on the players' side, I think), and he said the one thing that could kill you with an arbiter was saying something that was provably false--probably not that different from a criminal case. If you did, everything else you said immediately became suspect. One example he used was when the Jays argued that George Bell's fielding was a liability, his side went through game logs (probably quite novel at the time) and was able to show that Bell's errors had little to no impact on runs scored or wins and losses.

(Bell's defense likely was a liability--can't remember that far back--but errors were the coin of realm then, so that was probably enough.)

The Jays should go back and try to re-litigate that: based on bWAR, Bell looks to have been a major liability in the field.

This guy sees problems ahead:

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2023/01/14/why-contract-hardball-is-a-bad-sign-for-bo-bichettes-future-with-the-blue-jays.html

Well hopefully Bo is able to stay a little more level headed than Marcus Stroman (and his tweets)

One thing I don't get is Bichette's base stealing. Last year, he stole 24 in 25 attempts; this year, 9 out of 16. Has he gotten stupider or slower? I would have thought at his age, that would be relatively steady year to year.

― clemenza, Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Noticed that too and can offer no explanation

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Leo Morgenstern has the explanation (it's long): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-bo-bichettes-wheels-fell-off-in-2022/

Stroman was the exception here. When the sides take each other to court some unflattering things will be said, it's a business. It shouldn't affect things going forward.

Why the Jays don't negotiate extensions with their young players is a different issue, but then again, the players might not want it. Extensions were more common in the years leading up to the last labour agreement when free agency signings were more uncertain. After this offseason's windfall for FA's, I don't think anyone of the caliber of Bo/Vlad will rush to sign a long term deal until the year before they hit free agency at the earliest.

Long way off, but this looks promising:

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/blue-jays-sign-international-free-agent-enmanuel-bonilla-to-franchise-record-bonus-173744656.html

That entire piece can be summed up by “just dumb luck I guess”! A lot of new acronyms in there for me, which I expect to forget most of. Interesting that he supposedly got super lucky in 2021. So I guess I can look forward to him getting thrown out a little less next season.

whoops - i was talking about the piece on Bichette and his speed vanishing

That was my conclusion too, after my eyes glazed over and I skipped ahead to the end:

His 2021 season represented something like his 80% percentile outcome, while his 2022 season represented something like his 20% percentile outcome. He got “lucky” one year and “unlucky” the next, and those two years happened to come back-to-back.

Fun Fact: Daulton Varsho was born 9 months and 1 day after his dad Gary's final MLB game.

(via u/thedeejus) pic.twitter.com/PiBdBpa9Vm

— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) January 27, 2023

I don't really remember this guy, but look at the photo--he's hitting cross-handed, no?

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/former-blue-jays-utilityman-getting-one-last-shot-world-baseball-classic-dominican-republic

OK, I guess it could be that he bats left and that's coming out of his swing.

boneface was switch, maybe he concocted a third swing

Just noise, but seriously: you're going to question Alek Manoah's work ethic? I think the guy would like nothing better than to throw 300 innings.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2023/02/02/my-job-isnt-to-please-you-blue-jays-ace-alek-manoah-speaks-out-after-analyst-questions-his-work-ethic.html

stroman also wasn't able to stay away from this one!
clearly that analyst is a clown, but i think manoah should have just stayed above and ignored him. dude's gonna have a rough time of it, if he feels the need to respond to every half notable clown spewing bs.

Are you trying to tell me that Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting?

literally incapable!

Can't Stop Won't Stop: the Marcus Stroman Story.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-bo-bichette-agree-to-multi-year-contract-avoiding-arbitration/

"In the meantime, Bichette gets the biggest payday of his career — while terms haven’t been announced, one source suggested $33.5 million or so would be a fair number for the next three seasons."

glad that arb stuff is behind us for Bo. next up is putting that long-term-contract ring on Vlad's finger!

vlad seems destined to get a 14-year / $1.9 billion deal with the padres or something

(er, numbers exaggerated but not enough to seem that exaggerated. maybe he gets 10 years and a mere 400 million or something like that)

Considering how young he is (and what happened in the SS market) a 10 year deal wouldn’t feel unreasonable

Hey! (Even though he won't have a bat in his hand.)

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/encarnacion-returns-blue-jays-coach

just watched Tiedemann throw his first spring training inning. wow did the kid look good.

I'm so slow on up-and-coming players (I'm the guy who basically said "Who's Kershaw?" here about three years into his career). So I'm looking at his line for last year for the first time--pretty awesome over three different leagues.

Not a lot of innings - but he did that at 19!!!
Stuff was great. Electric fastball, great change and a fade away slider he located perfectly to end the inning.

Sort of a nothing story that is nonetheless interesting (and will be a contentious thing on social media for a few days):

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/no-jacket-required-blue-jays-pack-away-home-run-jacket-as-part-of-gritty-new-attitude

I'll half miss it, half won't.

(Sorry for the Sun link, Thermo, it's all I can find.)

Deep breath: https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-exits-right-knee-discomfort.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-jose-bautista-to-be-added-to-level-of-excellence

Hardly a surprise, great news, but I always assumed he and Encarnacion would go up there together. Their prime Blue Jay years exist almost in lockstep. They're like Maddux/Glavine, Trammell/Whitaker, etc. Maybe it's just economics: two big showcase days are better than one.

Obvious Bats was going to go up there. EE I’m not so sure about.

You don't think so? Except for Henke inexplicably not being up there, I can't think of anyone else who'd be the next logical choice. But if that's where they do draw the line, just above Henke, then no, I guess he isn't a sure thing.

This is as good a place as any to repost some things I wrote in 2009 -- marvel at my innate (in)ability to spot future superstars. In my defense: Cito Gaston was managing the team and I was pissed off all season long:

Whose Baseball Team Is This? (2009 Blue Jays Thread)

Looking at Encarnacion/Bautista's time with the Jays:

EE: .268/.355/.522, 136 OPS+, 4.1 WAR/162, 1 incredible, iconic postseason HR
JB: .253/.372/.506, 136 OPS+, 5.0 WAR/162, 1 super-incredible, iconic postseason HR

Pretty damn close offensively; more defensive value for Bautista.

NoTime: you don't even mention Bautista in that post--how did not see that he was going to hit 54 HR in 2010?

Clem -- check the end of the first paragraph!

Snider never panned out (for any team) but he *was* regarded as a can't miss prospect by just about everyone. Good thing Joey Bats saved the team by retooling his swing!

Stepped on my own joke--you did mention him...(What you say is really funny, not that I'm any better at prognostication).

I liked him--and he was treated shabbily--so glad to hear this:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/pat-tabler-blue-jays-new-gig

i like him, but was not a fan of him as a broadcaster.

From Dave Fleming's annual predictions (which he treats as a goof):

"This is a very small ledge to go out on, but I think Bo Bichette will either come in second the AL MVP race, or win it outright."

https://www.billjamesonline.com/bold_predictions_for_2023/

that's interesting! wouldn't have expected James to be too huge on Bo since he doesn't walk alot and his defence is mediocre

It's a guy who writes for James, not James himself. I like him; his predictions are intriguing, and he usually revisits to see how he did. Bo would have to have some really flashy old-school stats to get himself into an MVP race--he'll probably never have a really high WAR for the reasons you mention.

This doesn't quite jibe with his Bo prediction (or at least not with Bo winning):

"Bold time: Adley Rutschman will have a 10.0 WAR season in 2023."

As far as I can tell, Piazza's 8.7 bWAR in 1997 is the highest ever by a catcher. So it's probably safe to say a 10.0 would be worth an MVP.

Not if it’s 8 WAR of pitch framing!

My category is the Blue Jays for the monthly Zoom trivia group I'm part of.

Questions: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RE-5sucHGRKMruARoDZNvgux8EI5qy_hz4zw19s7HfI/edit?usp=sharing

Answers: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1v5Q0-b6rZnLXH0xSASkzTr0TmApXzsZq3VVYvI9KDNg/edit?usp=sharing

Realize that the first few questions are ridiculously easy...You can't assume people share your interests, so you have to have a few gimmes at the start.