To What Extent Does Your Life Revolve Around Alejandro Kirk? (The 2023 Blue Jays Thread)

i voted! and i hope everyone voted for the HR bouncing off of canseco's head for the best rangers moment. i love that José Martínez's father hit that HR, everything about is perfect

I voted for Canseco too! What other Rangers moment is there to vote for? I guess Ryan's no-hitter would be the less jokey vote...What about the Cardinals, KM? I almost voted for Freese, but I deferred to history and went with Ozzie.

What other Rangers moment is there to vote for?
...What about the Cardinals

i ended up voting for Freese's Game 6 HR for the Cardinals. and i wonder, if that game had gone the other way, if Josh Hamilton's 2-run HR in the top of the 10th would have been the top Rangers moment?

i almost voted for Ozzie's HR in game 5 of the '85 NLCS. i was just a year or two too young to watch it with any comprehension, when it happened, but it still gives me chills to watch it. i know it was the first HR ozzie ever hit from the left side in the big leagues (did he ever hit one in the minors or before? i need to find out). and of course, "go crazy folks, go crazy!", the beers flying and ozzie pumping his fist.

i think one that should have been on the list was adam wainwright's curveball to beltran to close out the 2006 NLCS.

I can't remember if it was one of the choices (and can't check because I've voted), but the Rangers' first great moment was probably David Clyde's first start on 6/27/73. He'd just turned 18 a couple of months earlier, and there were 35,000 people at Arlington Stadium. He beat the Twins 4-3. His line: 5 innings, 1 hit, 2 runs, 7 strikeouts...and 8 walks. (The next guy got a four-inning save.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX197306270.shtml

Drew Hutchinson's gotten an invite to spring training--should have held off the thread title.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/toronto-blue-jays-announce-five-minor-league-contracts-including-some-old-friends

In the Unlikely Event Drew Hutchison Posts a Sub-5.00 ERA, How Will You React? (Toronto Blue Jays 2016)

Hutchison's ERA in 2016 wound up being 5.25

Haven't had a chance to read this yet, looks like it could be a useful summary:

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-looking-back-at-the-first-18-months-of-the-ross-atkins-era-in-toronto

I didn't know that they traded Pearce for Espinal.

I never thought that Anthopoulos was treated unfairly, he eventually built a WS contender in his fifth year but it was a win-now team without a solid core of homegrown talent, the fall could have been brutal. In the end it worked out fine for everyone, Anthopoulos did a much better job in Atlanta that he did in Toronto (and won a WS), and the Jays are an exciting team again.

AA inherited a solid team with a ton of young talent in Atlanta. i think he's a solid GM, but he really lucked out with that Atlanta gig.

In 2015 I was kind of resigned to "Well, we won but AA traded away our future," but I don't think any of those guys panned out, did they? So you can get lucky. You can trade away Jeff Bagwell or Fred McGriff or Zack Wheeler for a little bit of short-term gain, or you can trade away Daniel Norris.

I wouldn't say he lucked out, he's been there for five years now, added a lot more young talent, and has them set up as a perennial 95-win club for the next few years.

The Norris trade could have looked bad down the line (a front line young starter vs two months of David Price) but was absolutely the right move. Wasn't Shapiro really down on that trade?

Making the trade look even better is that, after his spectacular half-season with the Jays (9-1, 2.30), Price walked away (as everyone knew he would) and was never that great again...with two huge asterisks: his mediocre post-season in 2015 for the Jays, and his great WS with the Red Sox in 2018, where he should have been named MVP.

We just signed Brandon Belt for ~10M?

I think Syndergaard and D’Arnaud were the only prospects that sort-of panned out in the big trades leading up to the playoff runs

You have undoubtedly seen this Belt #content, clem?

Via a blog post from 2019... Brandon Belt LOVES the chicken fingers at the Ritz Carlton in Toronto.

Signing bonus, @BlueJays? 🐔

(h/t: @JaysKid_RHP) pic.twitter.com/zCol9HBnq0

— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) January 10, 2023

Brandon Belt loves the chicken tenders from The Ritz-Carlton Toronto, so you know we had to try them 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/7BjdeOgscK

— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) January 10, 2023

My brother-in-law was telling me about that right after they picked him up...Pretty funny; he might be our new Joe Biagini.

I think I meant to say Jason Grilli...the guy who was a really colourful character.

Grilli was angry from what I remember. Biagini was the hilariously awkward guy

Yeah Belt is 100% that. I hope he does well in Toronto!

I'm really getting the two of them confused...Wasn't Grilli the one who was so demonstrative after striking out someone, a real gung-ho guy? Maybe I did mean Biagini.

Ya, angry/intense - not at all disarmingly goofy as biagini. Also doesn’t help that grilli was like almost 7 feet tall!

not sure where to post this (not hot stove, no 2023 thread yet) so i'll post it on the highest ranking active ilx team thread

https://i.imgur.com/1CgP7ii.jpg

I think I saw that; there was another mlb.com writer who picked the Jays for the WS.

I feel good about them, but I'm not quite there yet. Guerrero having another 2021 would go a long way towards making that ranking above happen.

i know they force sports journalists to pick WS favorites and stuff like that, but it seems like a waste of time to me. the dodgers of the last 7 years should have won at least 5 world series or so. baseball in the postseason is always surprising and confounding.

i'm probably shaped by the cardinals front office philosophy at this point, but i always just root for them to make the playoffs. i'm thrilled when they do, then i hope for the best from there and hope it's entertaining

i think a good way to judge a team is how fun they are to watch, and off the top of my head, the jays have vlad jr, bichette jr, and of course the center of the solar system, alejandro kirk. that's a pretty fun team

Sometimes I wish they were maybe 3% less fun, and a little more focused--why I liked Marcus Semien so much--but when they're winning, yes.

Cardinals are amazing. I'm looking at their franchise page, and they've only missed the playoffs seven times this century (15/22), have only been sub-.500 once, and all that despite (I think) doling out much less money that the most extravagant spenders. They've got to be the most cost-effective franchise by far. The Rays come to mind, but they're only 8/22 at making the playoffs.

Bichette's the last guy they haven't settled with (and who could still go to arbitration):

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-2023-arbitration-deadline-agreements

In my very large sample size of six or seven people, everyone I know is down on him to one degree or another. He's definitely not a rate-stat/sabermetric kind of player, but he still manages to keep his OPS+ in the 120-130 range, and he's 8.5 WAR the last two seasons. September saved him last year. I hope he stays.

Plus he has exactly the kind of hair I wanted in high school but could never manage--forgot to mention that.

Hopefully that’s the basis for his arb case.

^^^One of my No-Bo sample people!

I take it you think he'll lose if it goes to arbitration? I don't know (and don't know what he'd be asking for)--he's got some of those flashy old-school stats that I thought might carry weight with an arbiter (league leader in hits, pretty good number of XB hits/runs/RBI). Now if Keith Law is the arbiter, he's in trouble.

1,400 comments on the Sportsnet FB post about this. He is a lightning rod.

Bichette has reportedly filed at $7.5 million, while the Blue Jays have filed at $5 million. The $2.5 million spread between the two sides is the largest in the league.

According to the Star...which tells me they're quite happy to see him walk; that seems like a relatively small difference if they wanted him to stay.

i don't know, i wouldn't necessarily equate arguing about arbitration (especially about the largest difference in the league) with being ok with him leaving. this is his first time through arbitration, right? if they gave him 2.5M more this year, then next year he would do it again and make the difference even larger, and then again during the third year, and that's on top of the natural increases in salary he'll get through arbitration anyway.

not trying to defend owners here, but every team has an interest in paying the players something close to what the arbitrator decides, because every team is going to want to show their players that they want them to stay, and every player is going to want way more than what they'd get through arbitration. for example, let's say they give bichette what he asked for, no questions, to show that they like him. what is danny jansen going to do next year?

(i hope it goes without saying that i'm in favor of the players getting paid what they deserve, compared to the enormous share of revenues that owners claim for themselves. i'm just saying the owners, being coldhearted rich dudes, are not going to go out of their way to do that.)

(also i think one ridiculous thing about arbitration, and something that affects irl managerial decisions, is that the arbitrators are stuck in the 1980s and still include shit like Wins and Saves in their formulas to come up with fair payments. that surely plays a role in how players and managers will go out of their way and harm their team's chances of winning in order to secure the all-important Win and Save, in some situations -- it actually affects their salaries!)

Thing is, if they win the arbitration case, I just can't see him staying--especially if he has a big year. It's like Joe Pesci in Raging Bull flipped upside down: "If you lose, you lose--if you win, you still lose."

I now see he's not a FA until 2026...so yeah, there's lots of time to make nice. I was thinking this was his walk year, which shows how closely I follow the money side of the game.

Yes, I was coming to post that, they still have years left to work out an extension.

More relevant IMO -- Vlad got $14M, so why should Bichette get only half that? They had nearly the same WAR last year.

I was very much thinking of Vlad's agreement when I said $2.5M seemed like a small difference. Not just last year, either: even including Vlad's huge 2021, they're not that far apart over the last two seasons (10.7 for Vlad, 9.5 for Bo) or for their careers (13.4 for Vlad, 12.9 for Bo). Do I think Vlad's the better, more valuable player? Sure. But if salary is based as much on what you've done as the ceiling that you think is there, twice as much seems disproportionate. And nearly three times as much--$14.3M vs. $5M--is just wrong.

although they "avoided arbitration" by coming to an agreement, that salary - $14.3M for Vlad - is heavily informed by what he would get if he did go to arbitration. and again, (and this is just my opinion but i think it's well supported by evidence - arbitrators don't use WAR to determine the value of player. they're stuck on old school stats. one thing they heavily, heavily reward for position players is home runs. they love home runs. Vlad hits more home runs. Vlad gets more money.

that probably seems like a gross simplification of what's going on, but it plays a huge role

arbitrators have a lot of similarities to hall of fame voters. think of bill james' hall of fame monitor. vlad has a rookie of the year, 2 all-star games, a runner-up for MVP, and a ton of home runs. bo bichette is a well-rounded player who is not the best at anything -- BORING! Vlad gets more money. (and i think we would both agree that Vlad deserves more - just probably not THAT much more)

oops - Vlad didn't get rookie of the year. but he did get a gold glove.

That makes sense to me. Like I said earlier, Bo does have some old-school flash--kind of like a young Juan Samuel--but Vlad's is brighter. I still would have given him the $7.5, but I see what you're saying (and about the future ramifications of doing so).

it's the most boring idea of all time, but i truly think if they revamped the arbitration process to make it align with what a good baseball player is, it would change the game. (it would probably also lead to even more games where the starter goes 4 innings and a handful of other pitchers close out the game -- it would drive things even more toward efficient run production/prevention)

I’d be surprised if the everyday game strategy had anything to do with possible arbitration outcomes.

I thought the arbitration process depends more on how the case is presented? If Bo's people present a WAR-based argument then the management will have to build a case in response. I don't think the arbitrator steps in and says "wait, he didn't hit 40 HRs so he can't make more than $X".

I know they do look at salaries around the league, that is, how much other players of comparable ability, age, and league experience are making (or have made in recent years). It goes far beyond just relying on the stats that the arbitrator memorized on baseball cards when he or she was growing up.

Something I wrote in the Baseball Books thread a few years ago after reading a book on the '70s A's dynasty. (I should be careful--my idea of a funny story isn't everybody's around here.)

Hilarious how ill-equipped Finley was for the first set of arbitration hearings in 1974. Across the rest of the league, the owners won 25 or 33 cases--a combination, I'm guessing, of institutional bias and poor representation. Finley, though, lost five out of eight. The players would come armed with mountains of statistics (a few them were represented by Jerry Kapstein, the Scott Boras of his day; Reggie even had Marvin Miller arguing his case), Finley would pace the room and say things like "Mr. Reggie Jackson is a superstar...Gentleman, I ask you: what is a superstar?" When he was pitted against Ken Holtzman, he'd tell the arbitrator that Holtzman would be lost without Rollie Fingers; an hour later, arguing against Fingers in front of the same arbitrator, he'd say that Fingers only piled up saves because of Oakland's great starting pitchers. The suggestion is that Finley never recovered from the reality of arbitration, and just became (even) more and more erratic and resentful for the rest of the decade.

Mark Shapiro, representing the club: "Mr. Bo Bichette is dynamic...Gentleman, I ask you: what does it mean to be dynamic?"

Personally, I never get tired of stories where Finley makes an ass of himself.

You could almost turn that into a whole Mad-type running feature: "Charlie O. Finley Arbitration Strategies We'd Like to See."

Brian Cashman: "They tell me Mr. Aaron Judge hits home runs...Gentleman, I ask you: what is a home run?"

Carlos Correa's counsel: "They tell me Mr. Carlos Correa is a physical risk...Gentleman, I ask you: what isn't a risk in this world we live in?"

Think about it -- if the Rangers don't crush the Jays in that four game sweep in Rogers Centre, then they probably don't make the playoffs. A series split could have given the Jays 92 wins and the fifth seed, then they face the Rays instead of the Twins in the first round. The Rangers path to the WS could have been ours. Clearly the Rangers' success is all thanks to us and the Jays are the uncrowned 2023 champions of baseball.

Trust me on this, the math checks out.

I thought about it--you're right.

everything except expecting the jays to beat the rays lol

Both Teoscar and Gurriel Jr. are back on the market. Can't see the Jays suddenly reversing their pitching/defense commitment, though.

It’s kind of shocking how bad Teo’s defence is, because he never looked embarrassing out there or anything

Bautista debuting on the HOF ballot got me thinking about Joe Carter...Very different players, and Bautista was better by almost any measure (except, I guess, 100-RBI seasons, even though Carter's exhibit #1 in how tainted those can be), but they're linked by three things: 1) two most famous Jays HRs ever; 2) 300-something HR; 3) Bautista, like Carter, will likely be one-and-out.

I forgot that Carter was a one and done. He was a very famous player with borderline HOF counting stats, I thought that he'd hang around the ballot for a few years. bWAR isn't friendly to him -- terrible defense and low OBPs (although WAR wasn't around when he was HOF eligible).

i think he was a 30/30 guy too!

Looking at the list of one-and-dones from Carter's year (2004), and it's pretty impressive: along with Joe you had Dennis Martinez, Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Kevin Mitchell, Doug Drabek, Terry Pendleton, and Cecil Fielder. (Molitor and Eckersley both went in that year in their first try.)

That is amazing. Ranking that 2004 ballot by WAR, you get HOFers at #1-#6, then Tommy John at #7, then four O&Ders at #8-#11 (Hernandez, Stieb, Key, Martinez). Further down the WAR-ranked ballot: five additional HOFers.

In WAR7, Stieb is fourth, behind only Trammell, Sandberg, and Blyleven.

Thing is, that was a huge year for iconic Jays entering the ballot with Carter, Stieb, and Key. (Plus Molitor and Fielder debuting.) And I don't have any recollection of that.

Blue Jays "Open To" Alek Manoah Trade Offers https://t.co/dfOxfamI0o pic.twitter.com/F47ZenCb3W

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) November 20, 2023

yeah, that's a big "who knows?" with Manoah. I can't imagine Ryu will be back.

TSN reporter Scott Mitchell has sparked the rumour that Jays are "big players" on Ohtani, and a possible trade scenario involving basically Bichette for Juan Soto, Bo apparently plannning to seek free agency over an extension. Not sure how this trade would make sense. Would be exciting to have another blockbuster trade like the Dec 1990 Jays/Padres deal, but it's all conjecture anyway.

I don't know their contract particulars, but all things being equal, what sane organization wouldn't take Soto for Bo in a millisecond?

Soto's even a few months younger.

Feel like Pads might be more interested in Vladdy, they don’t need another shortstop but they really need a 1B/DH

Vlad the Greeter? Think I'd make that one in a millisecond too.

(Basically, there are only a handful of players in the game I wouldn't trade for Soto.)

The Manoah story looks like a big load of nothing IMO, the sources are "rival executives" inquiring about SP pitching depth, and obviously the Jays have plenty of that. Obviously any team that talks to Toronto about pitching is going to ask about Manoah. There's nothing to this story at all.

I don't listen radio games very often these days, which is sometimes a matter of access; most games are carried on 980 out of London, but not all of them. So I don't really have an opinion on this:

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/11/29/23981650/sportsnet-releases-ben-wagner

I thought he was great, in my limited sample of radio games over the years.

Howarth called the decision "Embarrassing"
https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/embarrassing-legendary-blue-jays-broadcaster-jerry-howarth-rips-rogers-for-ben-wagners-dismissal

I've got to figure that if Howarth pointedly speaks out, it much be as bad as he says. (My first thought yesterday was, "Is there some transgression here?" Just firing your radio guy with no specific reason given is odd indeed.)

i liked him. was surprised tho, to see the jays subreddit was sort of mixed on the matter. expected a lot more table flipping

Sources: Matt Chapman is en route to Toronto today.

Too soon