ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I think the recent attacks in Russian interior airfields show that Ukraine is in fact using drones extensively - they likely have domestic drone production going on, but have been pretty quiet about it

The Iranian drones use cheap Chinese-produced two-stroke motors (almost like lawn mower engines); it would sure be helpful if the Chinese would stop shipping them. But the Iranian drones are slow and ineffective, unless you send ten at a time. The Ukrainians have been shooting them out of the sky like passenger pigeons

rumour is that ukraine is modifying old tu-141 spy drones into medium range cruise missiles. but they only have 100 or so

as if things weren't bad enough over there, now they got another visit from Boris :-/

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-64363761

If they love him so much they can keep him.

the radiolabs pod on smuggling abortifacient pills into ukraine is kinda fascinating 'life during wartime' stuff, crossing with polish natalist/absolutedogma factors. not really sure the best way to post that link so i'll just

https://www.stitcher.com/show/wnycs-radiolab/episode/ukraine-under-the-counter-210997700

i cannot imagine how it is safe to podcast this unless the ring is totally broken up by now, which after listening to ep 1, it is. ?

Had read that Russian field commander was replaced because too close to this (Wagner) guy, and now:

On Wednesday, Prigozhin posted a picture on Telegram showing the bodies of several dozen slain Wagner fighters, piled unceremoniously in a courtyard. Alongside that shocking photo, he posted the image of a formal request from Wagner for more ammunition, pointing the finger of blame squarely at the Russian Ministry of Defense for squandering one of those lives.

Prigozhin posted a photo showing dozens of dead Wagner fighters, blaming "shell starvation" and lack of ammo supplies.

“This is one of the gathering places of the dead,” Prigozhin said. “These are the guys who died yesterday due to the so-called ‘shell starvation’ [by the Russian MOD]. There should have been five times fewer of them. So mothers, wives and children will get their bodies.”

Apparently, the message got through to someone. In a message and voice note Thursday, Prigozhin said a shipment of ammunition was now on its way to his forces.
...But Prigozhin’s latest stunt appeared to raise the ante in the oligarch’s confrontation with Russia’s defense establishment, and with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

...Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has become a remote and isolated leader since the Covid-19 pandemic, has no clear successor, and some political insiders speculated that some opportunistic upstart – a Prigozhin, for instance – might sense a potential opening or chance to build a power base independent of Putin.

Certainly, Prigozhin’s outbursts would have been unthinkable before February 24, 2022, when open criticism of the defense leadership by a military contractor would not have been tolerated. Earlier this week, Prigozhin escalated his spat with Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s General Staff, accusing them of “treason” for their alleged failures to support and supply the Wagner group in Ukraine.

“The Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of Defense are handing out commands right and left, that the Wagner PMC should not receive ammunition, they are also not helping with air transport,” Prigozhin claimed in a recording posted by his press service on Telegram. “This can be equated to high treason now when Wagner PMC are fighting for Bakhmut, losing hundreds of their fighters every day.”

Not everything Prigozhin says can be taken completely at face value. This is the man, after all, who helped bankroll one of Russia’s most notorious disinformation campaigns (from earlier graf: He even began to acknowledge his role in Russian efforts to interfere with the 2016 US presidential election, admitting that he had founded the Internet Research Agency, the notorious St. Petersburg troll farm that the US government has sanctioned for interfering in American elections). And the complaints about ammunition starvation leave unanswered myriad questions about the precise nature of the relationship of Wagner to the Russian military, how its formations are supplied with equipment, and who ultimately exercises command and control over its forces.

Analysis: How the situation in Moldova mirrors Russia's moves before invading Ukraine
Analysis by CNN's Rob Picheta

Tensions are mounting in Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s southwestern border, where Russia has been accused of laying the groundwork for a coup that could drag the nation into the Kremlin’s war.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of using “saboteurs” disguised as civilians to stoke unrest amid a period of political instability, echoing similar warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has meanwhile baselessly accused Kyiv of planning its own assault on a pro-Russian territory in Moldova, where Moscow has a military foothold.

Sound up. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov claims the war was launched against Russia and the audience explodes with laughter. pic.twitter.com/EQSZvH5CGz

— Frida Ghitis (@FridaGhitis) March 3, 2023

Sergei Lavrov in New Delhi, lamenting “the war which we’re trying to stop, and which was launched against us using the Ukrainian people.”

something extremely basic that i don’t understand about this war: why can’t russia just bomb all ukraine’s trenches with air power?

Because they can't. (The quick summary is that Ukraine's kept its own air force together and Russia's air wings basically found themselves dealing with an opposing force they couldn't roll over or simply defeat. There's more to it than that but basically that's it.)

Ukrainians have some pretty sophisticated ground-to-air weapons, as do the Russians... there was early speculation about who would control the skies but these weapons have largely kept it a ground war, supplemented by drones & missiles

Russians lost a bunch of helicopters early on, they're more careful now

Poland also helping out by sending Ukraine about a dozen MiG fighter jets.

I dunno I just thought that airplanes kinda made trench warfare obsolete.

not if they keep getting shot down!

I guess its been a while since there was a major war in which one side did not establish overwhelming air superiority fairly early on.

I should probably just google this, but does Ukraine really have an air force - and air defenses - on a par with Russia?

Establishing air dominance before sending ground troops has been the US strategy for decades. Not sure why the Russians didn’t do the same.

Tracer this is from an NPR link almost a year ago but I think it helps explain it:

Some experts think Russia's big fleet of aircraft just hasn't been well maintained. And they also don't appear to have the logistical support, the fuel and the spare parts to keep their jets flying. But another factor is the Ukrainians. In the years after Russia first annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas in 2014, Ukraine developed a pretty sophisticated air defense system using that fleet of fighter planes working in tandem with surface-to-air missile systems. The Ukrainians I spoke to believe Russian pilots just don't have the training and experience to deal with that kind of threat. Here's a Ukrainian MiG pilot who goes by the call sign MoonFish (ph).

MOONFISH: Sometimes we are able to hear their communications. When you hear those, they actually are really scared. And if anything goes wrong, they just turn away.

MANN: A senior U.S. defense official also told NPR the Ukrainian air force is being helped by real-time intelligence from the U.S. And experts think the Ukrainians are going to get better and better at defending their airspace, in part because of better weapons that are coming in from the U.S. and Germany.

so it's more about successful ground-to-air defense than air-to-air superiority

I remember early on in the war there arose the legend of some Ukrainian fighter pilot who downed five Russian fighters or something like that, but it turned out to be just a legend, and a propaganda figure

The analysts I've read said dogfights don't really happen anymore, for a number or reasons

tracer: I don't think the Ukrainian airforce is anywhere near to the size of Russia's (they have more pilots than planes, for instance), but as we've seen - Russia is still really dependent on creaky old Soviet-era shit, so who knows the quality of their overall fleet

Russia would not easily be able to replace what Air Force and pilots they have is my guess. Those are needed for deterrence and they would have to use the brunt to make any difference.

basically the US being able to establish air dominance seemingly at will (e.g. in iraq) is the exception not the rule.

generally defenders have a massive advantage over any attacking force. this is often approximated as a 3:1 advantage ratio. both ukraine and russia are well equipped with SAMs (big Surface to Air Missiles) and MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence Systems i.e. little missiles). its really hard to take out this sort of deep air defense network. the only way to do it is to have a huge and incredibly expensive network of planes and intelligence staff dedicated to finding ground targets and destroying them with radar seeking missiles. and doing it all quickly within the first few days of the war, while a ground force moves in at the same time and makes sure the defense can't reset. this has only been pulled off a couple of times since modern air defense systems proliferated (by the US and israel) and only against inferior opposition.

it is a lot easier and a lot cheaper to just maintain a no fly zone over your own territory than to go out and obliterate your opponents missile defenses, and this is what ukraine and russia have defaulted to. and it is a situation that any major power could find themselves in if they are not punching down enough.

Some tawdry details involving some of the better known faces of American "volunteer fighters" in Ukraine (at least on Twitter):

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/volunteers-us-ukraine-lies.html

Lots of details about Ukraine war in here I hadn't noticed while skimming previous reports, also related, like (leak-threatened) intel sources in Wagner Group---with btw mention of the group’s plans to strengthen its presence across Africa and in Haiti. :
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html

more leaked deets, boots on the ground ah damn (also US still got 'em in Syria, for what that's worth)

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

Why does it always have to be boots? Why do we never put Jimmy Choo pumps or L.L. Bean Camp Moccasins or Air Jordans or novelty Minions flip-flops on the ground?

How 'bout Sperry Top-Siders?

Anyone else surprised that a 21 year old National Guardsman had access to these documents? How the hell did this kid get that kind of clearance?

The National Guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group called Thug Shaker Central, where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games.

new board description

lol

apparently he altered some of the leaked classified documents. It doesn't seem clear to me if this is Pentagon damage limitation or even the dumb kid trying some damage limitation or he just altered them to make some exaggerated point about US military overreach that he might have been discussing with his racist message board buddies. lol, he looks 16 years old.

I'd read that some of the documents were altered but I didn't know it was suggested he had done the altering? I was under impression they had got altered by someone else somewhere along the line on their winding path out into the open?

As to being surprised someone so low had this level of access, in some ways it seems surprising but I'd previously read a huge number of people have seemingly high levels of access. Difficult to really know

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/jack-teixeira-discord-document-leak/

Online, the suspect in the breach of dozens of classified documents took on a persona seemingly at odds with his military career

Other members of Teixeira’s server have showed The Post video of Teixeira shouting racist and antisemitic slurs before firing a rifle and said he referenced government raids at Ruby Ridge in Idaho and in Waco, Tex. — events with deep resonance among right-wing, anti-government extremists.

Being a racist and antisemite is hardly at odds with a military career.

Come on, apparently he was just being ironic.

...

He only said racist and antisemitic things to his friends because he wants to never forget that evil exists.

Being a racist and antisemite is hardly at odds with a military career.

― "The pudding incident?" (Boring, Maryland), Friday, April 14, 2023 9:25 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah, I mean, I won't go so far as to paint all military people with so broad a brush, but it's certainly not unusual!

https://media.tenor.com/l8h6A5YS54gAAAAC/dancing-tom-jones.gif

It has made me wonder what would be the ILXOR thread that would cause some one to pull out state secrets to show dominance on a thread. So not going to happen, indeed? Steely Dan/Fleetwood Mac/Skunk Baxter? DMB driving over rivers in Chicago?

Pineapple on pizza - C/D?

https://telegra.ph/Tolko-chestnyj-boj-nikakogo-dogovornyaka-04-14

Any thoughts on what Prigozhin is saying here? Suggesting an end to the special military operation and declaring it a success.

Setting expectations for the Russian public that the war this summer will mainly be fought over the territories in eastern Ukraine that Putin 'annexed', instead of a victorious push to Kyiv?

" The Russian deep state is going through a serious crisis today.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are in doubt today, or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state want to urgently return to their normal life, old habits and comfort.".

Re-reading the whole thing I'm guessing he's being sarcastic about ending the SMO. Would seem pretty weird for Prigozhin to be the one floating the idea of declaring. "The deep state are tired of it we should totally pack it in for an easy life, yeah right". I don't know, difficult to parse the tone of it in places

By Adam Pemble
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — American-made Patriot missiles have arrived in Ukraine, the country’s defense minister said Wednesday, providing Kyiv with a long-sought new shield against the Russian airstrikes that have devastated cities and civilian infrastructure.

The U.S. agreed in October to send the surface-to-air systems, which can target aircraft, cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles such as those that Russia has used to bombard residential areas and the Ukrainian power grid.

“Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a tweet.

The missiles are the latest contribution from Western allies, who have also pledged tanks, artillery and some types of fighter jets as Ukraine gears up for an expected counteroffensive.
...“Our air defenders have mastered (the Patriot systems) as far as they could. And our partners have kept their word,” Reznikov wrote.

Experts have cautioned that the system’s effectiveness is limited and that it may not significantly change the shape of the war, even though it will add to Ukraine’s arsenal against its bigger enemy.
The Patriot was first deployed by the U.S. in the 1980s. The system costs approximately $4 million per missile, and the launchers cost about $10 million each, analysts say. At such a cost, it’s not advantageous to use the Patriot to shoot down the smaller, cheaper Iranian drones that Russia has been buying and using in Ukraine.

In other developments Wednesday, China denied recent reports that Chinese drones have been found on Ukraine battlefields. China has insisted that it will not help arm Russia, one of its key allies...

I read that Kyiv is running short on missiles for their primarily Russian/Soviet anti-aircraft defense systems and with no way to replenish them, the need is becoming urgent to switch to NATO systems.

But if Patriot systems are that expensive to use, what can they have for everyday use against appropriate Russian weapons? Also what do they use against all those drones?

Anyway, Ukraine troops are about to being trained to use Abrams tanks, and have been trained by US etc to a lot of other things I'd assumed they were already trained by Ukraine to do; also,

Though Poland and Slovakia have donated Soviet-style MiG-29 fighter jets, and the United Kingdom and Poland have offered to train Ukrainian pilots, the idea of supplying F-16 Fighting Falcon jets or A-10C “Warthog” attack planes remains a bridge too far for the Biden administration.

Stoltenberg told reporters discussions on whether and how to offer different airframes are still underway.

Earlier this year, two Ukrainian pilots visited a military base in Tucson — likely with the Arizona Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing, which flies F-16s — to help the U.S. determine how long it might take to teach them to fly advanced Western aircraft, NBC News first reported in March. The Pentagon has not released any further information on their time in the simulators.

But Reznikov isn’t giving up hope.

“We’ve heard ‘no, it’s impossible’ a lot,” he wrote. “But I have seen firsthand how the impossible can become possible.”

(speaking of

Also related, like (leak-threatened) intel sources in Wagner Group---with btw mention of the group’s plans to strengthen its presence across Africa and in Haiti. :
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html

Wagners are disrupting how to win friends and influence people

https://www.tvguide.com/a/img/resize/904c9d43866d980fa448ffbc36416e4ad7fcd274/catalog/provider/1/6/1-172399218.jpg