U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

but is this phenomena particular to florida, cause we havent seen this political shift other places, and if so why

its no doubt a combination of things but im thinking prob a lot of the famously heterodox florida latinos went from vaguely middle of the road to full maga, prob some dem party incompetence, and then some unfavorable demographic shifts, im sure someone can look at the data and figure it out pretty easily, tho the more important question is not what happened but why

The nation has been telling Florida how much it hates Florida since 2000 so maybe the feeling got mutual.

many if not all of those things were true

It always had a lot of old people but as of a couple of years ago they were growing at twice the rate of any other age group

imo let them have Florida and get to work on Texas

the bad news is that more and more states are going to have Florida-esque populations of grouchy old assholes over time

i dont think people are really appreciating how far right florida has gone its off the map baby dem barely won the bluest parts of the state this cycle

Missouri's rightward shift mystifies me more than Florida's, frankly.

I was born in Missouri and spent sizable chunks of my life there. Its politics seemed comprehensible to me from 1975 to 2002.

Then it went full Greitens/Hawley and I can't quite figure out why.

does seem to be a thing that happens states lose their minds now and then, i suspect a lot of it has to do with politics

healthcare is too good for rich old people, we need the death panels

i watched the documentary about the villages it very well done but i had to turn off that shit was depressing as shit

I know Trump just makes shit up sometimes but this is one of those unusually specific claims that definitely seems like it oughta be looked into

Uh... you did what now? pic.twitter.com/CeFXbS9m34

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) November 11, 2022

A lot of people moving someplace can, and probably should, change its character.

If we were to suddenly import 50,000 Whitesnake fans into South Dakota, we would not be surprised when the legislature declares that September 22 (David Coverdale's birthday) shall henceforth be called Whitesnakemas.

It would be more interesting if 50,000 of the existing South Dakotans suddenly became very interested in Whitesnake.

Florida is not static; it is dynamic. People move to Florida quite often. Hence its political character is subject to change.

Missouri's population is more static, so its shift is more dramatic, and therefore more troublesome: Missouri is not importing Republicans. There is not a big influx of Republican transplants. Missouri is actively engaged in creating Republicans from scratch.

Extant Missourians are choosing to become Republican. That's different from Florida, which is (to a greater extent) attracting Republicans from elsewhere. I think. I could be wrong. But that is my reading.

im sure those numbers could be easily run but it would take a fuckin lot of republicans moving there

Ohio shifted deep red only in relatively recent years, iirc. Missouri, yeah, for sure. Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for a while. I saw someone quip that Florida is the new Georgia and Georgia is becoming the new Florida, in terms of voting trends, though honestly I don't have much faith in the staying power of even the deepest blue states these days.

Florida has pockets like any state. I live in a blue area.

Florida still has a lot of transplants so we get the countries racists when they move here to retire

Is this old news?

Extremely tough to see how Kari Lake (R) wins now. #AZGOV

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 14, 2022

I for one know what has happened in Florida

nothing matters to me until wasserman sees enough. keep looking, wasserman!

He's trying to see! But he says it's extremely tough to see enough.

Lake losing would be such a nail in the coffin for MAGA

Florida also gave felons the vote, raised the minimum wage and legalized weed in recent memory so alongside lots of old people and psychotic evangelicals people are also just a confused mishmash of beliefs per usual.

I for one know what has happened in Florida

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, November 13, 2022 10:40 PM (fifty-three seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

tell me

Gallego: We fought as a team in Arizona and we won. Senator Sinema was nowhere to be found, at all. We did not see her at one public event for anybody… she did nothing. Because she only cares about herself.. pic.twitter.com/cPE8doyWy9

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 13, 2022

lol get her

I for one know what has happened in Florida

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, November 13, 2022 10:40 PM (fifty-three seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

tell me

― lag∞n

State-level Dems suck, were told to surrender in summer '21.

xp

get her and give her $50M. pay her off to leave, it's worth it. it's the cost of doing business

Dems lost the AZ Govs race in 2018 by 15 pts. https://t.co/AOgpBjvVNP

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 14, 2022

The Lake thing is interesting because both Wasserman and Nate Cohn say it looks bad for her, but there's this other lesser known expert Garrett Archer who thinks the remaining red vote is being underrated and he's not a hack, both Dave and Nate have supported his tweets despite not agreeing with them outright.

Basically the confidence isn't 99%

State-level Dems suck, were told to surrender in summer '21.

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, November 13, 2022 10:48 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

can they really be that bad

come sit by me

we had no $, no scripts, no organization.

I'm going to bed.

Is it me or did Dems lose big in states where they tacked right? Florida Dems running an ex-Republican and Ohio Dems with Tim “Democrats talk too much about abortion” Ryan.

Dems lost *five* NY seats that voted for Biden by more than the national result in ‘20 - including two that voted for Biden by double digits. You can’t really blame that on bad redistricting.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 14, 2022

florida dems might be incompetent but ny dems are entrenched in the worst kind of machine politics, the kind that doesn’t even reliably provide electoral victories

Hey, remember when Donald Trump stole highly classified documents?

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) November 13, 2022

sometimes feel like the basis for being politically conservative just comes down to deep sexual insecurity or trauma

https://www.weiserantiquarian.com/pictures/medium/64932.jpg

I would imagine that another factor with respect to elements of the far right turning against sports would be the anti-corporate tilt common to these factions of late…

its mostly because of the anti racist things, starting with the kneeling in football, nba putting blm on the court, whole worlds gone woke, but they still love football they cant help it, some cia freak saying games are for kids is a bridge too far, as a politician you should at the very least pretend to love college football, saying you dont watch the nfl anymore but you still love college could work, depending on your location

tell me the last time florida ran a really good candidate for statewide office (for these purposes DEmmings doesn't count as 'really good'. I thought she was good in the impeachment hearings, outside of that I don't know anything about her, I'm told that it was dumb of them to run someone who was so pro-police). Crist? no. Andrew Gillium? Uh, no. Dem party in Florida seems as useless as the Republican party in California.

also don't discount reactionary feelings about covid restrictions there

feeling pretty reassured that at least covid didnt turn the whole country fash

tell me the last time florida ran a really good candidate for statewide office (for these purposes DEmmings doesn't count as 'really good'. I thought she was good in the impeachment hearings, outside of that I don't know anything about her, I'm told that it was dumb of them to run someone who was so pro-police). Crist? no. Andrew Gillium? Uh, no. Dem party in Florida seems as useless as the Republican party in California.

― akm, Monday, November 14, 2022

Gillum.

According to AZ Central, Sinema was invited to attend a rally held in early November with former president Barack Obama but declined.

Even for Sinema, this is weird behavior.

why doesnt she just retire if she so impatient to start collecting those corporate kickbacks

Gillum

were you correcting my spelling or putting him up as representative of a good candidate? I can't remember much of his run; I vaguely remember he was doing well until the drug thing came out.

the drug thing didn't come out until years after the race

No, I was defending Gillium for coming as close to being a charismatic candidate who almost beat a GOP ballsack.

Lmao at the prosperity gospel applied to polling

Final NYT/Siena polls & results
AZ D+5 Result D+5.3
GA D+1.3 Result D+0.9
PA D+5 Result D+4.3
NV Even Result D+0.7
That @FiveThirtyEight showed closer races was bc of partisan polls flooding the zone, as @Nate_Cohn wrote https://t.co/JuPHCv50lF

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 14, 2022

the drug thing didn't come out until years after the race

a ha, you're right. Ok, now I'm remembering this better; seems like the FL Dem state party has pivoted to attempting to run middle of the road, centrist candidates ever since, thinking that will bring in right-leaning voters, and it is backfiring on them badly because no one likes candidates like that.