hall of fame, next vote...

Jaffe and Posnanski did a 180 on Schilling at the same time.

nowhere else to put this but i was revisiting possible future HOF closers, and putting it into more context w/mariano rivera, who had exactly zero mediocre seasons after his tough rookie campaign. when you assess his advanced stats, and this is preaching to the choir, you see what a freakishly special career he had.

from the outside looking in one can view trevor hoffman as a contemporaneous example of a similar player, but it's like night and day. hoffman had 6 seasons w/a bWAR of 2+, rivera had 16! hoffman had a handful of not-amazing years, 2 seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA vs rivera's 11. if you're a closer you should...always be closing. hoffman felt like a guy who lasted just long enough to build up the numbers in a much less impressive fashion.

the recent crop of absurdly dominant guys: kimbrel, chapman, jansen, hader. kimbrel hasn't been great since 2018 (that half-season with the Cubs aside, which he wrecked on the south side in the other half), chapman is looking done, jansen nah. now hader obviously could turn around after last season's disaster and do what he did for a few more years and put together a vv compelling case but idk if he will. these are guys whose peaks are staggering but i don't think they clear the bar.

the bar should be rivera. it's a very very high bar, but it should be for specialists. they need to excel beyond a single cheap stat for a very long. rivera leads in that cheap stat but if it didn't exist, he'd still be an undeniable HOFer for just how long he did what he did.

separately when i was looking at current bWAR leaders, i peeped starling marte and it reminds me what a good player he is. clearly not gonna make the HOF, but he's sort of the ian kinsler of OFers. consistently solid, some pop, good speed, toiling away mostly on teams that are out of the spotlight.

For a long time, I was convinced that one of Kimbrel, Chapman, or Jansen would make it, because even though they weren't as durable as Rivera (and didn't have the post-season resume), their rate stats were a leap forward. Virtually no chance now.

I’m not necessarily a believer in the clutch thing but if the job of a closer is to come in to face a few batters and finish off the opposition, you should absolutely never be a guy your team is concerned about putting out there. That’s more heightened in the postseason obviously, where a lot of guys falter. Rivera was like clockwork and it wasn’t just coasting on reputation, it was a constant level of performance, and that was in his case especially a postseason thing. kimbrel, jansen, chapman…not clockwork. hader obv a disaster last year.

Such a disaster i’ve had to say it twice

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-released

Beltran is one of Posnanski's 100 greatest players, but I don't think he was going to be first-ballot in any event; with his involvement with the sign-stealing scandal, and losing the Mets job as a result, he's probably got a long road ahead of him.

Going to guess that Rolen squeaks by (63% last year) and Helton gets close (65-70%) but still falls short.

Can’t imagine a single one of them making it past one ballot beyond the obvious but I’m guessing Beltran lands somewhere well below 50%.

The logjam clearing a bit last year with the alleged roid trio and schilling going away probably means it’s more likely there will be major vote increases for a few downballot guys, maybe enough to carry the close calls over another year but who really knows. Rolen seems like a safe bet, Helton will get a great boost, Wagner too. Gonna be curious to see what happens with Andruw Jones this time around. Sheffield and Manny seem to have maybe hit their ceiling of support but maybe the logjam clearing helps them incrementally as well.

The scandal will hurt Beltran, but unlike the suspected steroid users, it shouldn't be reflected in his stats unlike people seriously think that he stole signs throughout his career and wouldn't have been a HOF-caliber player without sign stealing.

The bar for closers shouldn't be Rivera. The undisputed GOAT can't be the bar, that's not fair for anyone. Hoffman and Lee Smith (both HOFers) are both around 28 WAR, as is Billy Wagner (not in the HOF). That's a solid bar for closer longevity and dominance, particularly because the careers of great relievers are getting shorter, not longer. Kimbrel can still get there. Chapman may very well be done.

Agree about Beltran. I would expect Helton to make it in before Rolen does

My Beltran post above should read "*unless* people seriously think that ..."

I think both Helton and Rolen will make it this year. They're rapidly trending upward (both received less than 20% of the vote in their first year), the "controversial" players (Schilling, Bonds, Clemens) aren't clogging up the ballot anymore, and the class of incoming first-timers is fairly weak.

I agree about Beltran's stats, but I do think it will hurt him--in a weird way, losing the Mets job might hurt him more than what caused it. Just guessing; we'll see.

I think ppl will see the astros as more “between the lines” than steroid era and that the vitriol is LA/NYY pissiness about losing their respective series #costalbias

At this point with everything, you got so many people NOT in because of this or that who actually gets elected is kind of a who cares. It was just like 'some' media people trying to put asterisks on asterisks on Judge getting the home run record, it really does not much matter anymore.

Answering my own question above (courtesy Posnanski): who are the 16 voters on the Veteran's Committee this year?

Hall of Fame Players: Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell

Executives: Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Dave St. Peter, Kenny Williams

Media Members/Historians: Steve Hirdt, LaVelle Neal, Susan Slusser

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-hall-again-cant-avoid-the-specter-of-cronyism/

I wish Trammell had cronyed Lou Whitaker back onto the ballot.

Didn't realize this is tonight. Fred McGriff's sitting by the phone right now.

Kind of nervous they’re gonna install fuckhead mcgee

Posnanski puts him at 59%.

and this might seem funny coming from a blue jays fan; but i never thought of Mcgriff as a HoF'er...i won't be annoyed if he gets in or anything, but don't really feel he belongs either.

I know what you mean, and I'd vote for Delgado ahead of him, but I think he'll be a fine addition. I was trying to think of a comparable HOF'er, and I think Tony Perez is a good fit: consistent power hitter without eye-popping seasons, respected by other players, popular with fans. McGriff was better, and he was definitely better than Harold Baines. (Not the ideal way to approach this, I know.) From '88 to his great strike-season in Atlanta, he was maybe one of the best half-dozen hitters in the game. He dropped off slightly after that, while everything around him exploded. In '96, he hit 28 HR and knocked in 107; Brady Anderson hit 50 HR that year. in 2001, at the age of 37, he hit 31 HR and knocked in 102; that was the year Luis Gonzalez--Luis Gonzalez--hit 57 HR. (I know I shouldn't be using RBI...just shorthand for his consistency.) I'm sure he was tempted to join the party. He didn't, he just kept putting up the same solid season year after year.

Said it before but mcgriff being as far as we know a “clean” dude, maybe that tips him a bit more into the HOF discussion. I don’t necessarily think HOF caliber guys who maybe/probably/definitely juiced should be kept outta the hall (though I’m not shedding any tears either tbh) but it’s good to contextualize freddy’s numbers a bit in light of all that. Bonus points for the nickname.

How did he even get that name?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGruff_the_Crime_Dog

Ya that was a dumb question. Had a night and still not at my best just yet.

Unanimous for Fred!

(Fuckhead McGee and everyone else passed over.)

Mattingly - 8/16
McGee - 7/16
Murphy - 6/16

Everyone else fewer than 4 votes.

Did not expect unanimous at all!! Guess he goes in as a brave?

happy for him

Braves probably make the most sense, but wouldn't be surprised if he's one of those hatless guys.

Keeping with the idea of how consistent he was:

A.L. - 10 seasons, .284/.384/.506, 132 OPS+, 28.4 WAR
N.L. - 10 seasons, .284/.370/.512, 137 OPS+, 24.3 WAR

Almost twice as many bWAR with the Jays as with the Braves, but he won a WS in Atlanta, and played in two there, so if he does pick a team, probably them.

Shd go in in the emanski hat not joking

Being Canadian, had to look that up!

http//www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-TYMPQSbE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-TYMPQSbE

What did Willie McGee do? I don't recall any controversy as a player or a coach about the dude other that Howard Cosell making fun of how he looked as a cheap shot.

lol i too was offended by the use of willie's surname in such a manner

i think yous owe him an apology

I watched the announcement online, and they didn't even have him set up for a phone call--not fair.

Very important:

Never forget that Fred McGriff makes an appearance in Home Alone pic.twitter.com/SsJLBU9Bef

— Three Year Letterman (@3YearLetterman) December 5, 2022

McGriff's entry gets my full endorse ment.

Brady Anderson hit 50 HR that year. in 2001, at the age of 37, he hit 31 HR and knocked in 102; that was the year Luis Gonzalez--Luis Gonzalez--hit 57 HR.

have we on ilb accused brady anderson of juicing?

or merely of having the most insane outlying season of all time?

I am, to be honest, definitely insinuating that those two totals were assisted by PEDs. Why would they stop? I can see where those seasons were such eyebrow-raising outliers (as opposed, to say, all the Greg Vaughns and Jim Edmonds who were power hitters already, and jumping from 30 HR a year to 40-45), they thought "Well, I got away with this this year, maybe better not press my luck"). But it's a good question and a fair point.

New popular theory ALSO involves the ball being juiced in that time frame

Right. I think there were non-juicing guys who benefitted from that (and two expansions, and maybe all the new parks being built, although I don't know if they helped on balance), and other guys who threw PEDs into the mix, and then there are Anderson's '96 season and Gonzalez's '99 season where you just have say wait a minute--really? 50 HR for a guy who never hit more than 24? 57 for a guy whose career-high is 31?

Of the two of them, Anderson using then stopping would be the harder one to explain. By '99, I recall that suspicion was mounting quickly about inflated HR totals; I could see Gonzalez feeling a spotlight on him. But I don't think the subject was even being discussed in '96.

could have just had an off year. you still gotta hit it.

Story of his career: Fred already bumped off mlb.com's front page by all of today's news.

We've got a Tom Emanski shout-out from Fred McGriff in his Hall of Fame press conference: "This ain’t my Tom Emanski hat. It’s a whole lot better."

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) December 6, 2022

I know it played almost no role in why he got in, but McGriff was really durable. From his first full season with the Jays in '88 to his age-37 season in 2001, he never played fewer than 144 games or had fewer than 586 PA. Except for the two strike seasons, that is, where he played 113/114 games in '94 and 144/144 in '95. For those 14 seasons in total, he played 97.5% of his team's games.