U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

Ginsberg was also much older than Sotomayor, so you’re comparing apples and oranges, and before we know the outcome of all the races. That’s really dumb.

The UK had a PM with Type 1 diabetes and that did not affect her day to day in the job.

― put a VONC on it (suzy)

Fair. Ginsberg had cancer in 2013. I'm just scarred by the last six years of Court watching. Kennedy retires just in time for the midterms and gets his protege nominated, Barrett gets nominated a month before the election as an Earth-3 version of Ginsberg -- hell, it wouldn't have shocked if Scalia knew McConnell would never allow Obama to fill his seat.

was Rudy Giuliani trying to turn PA into the hotbed of electoral corruption the thing that made Fetterman a household name? Google Trends seems to suggest so

It just occurred to me that David Souter (Sotomayor's predecessor) is still alive and not that old (83). He retired at 69 reportedly because he didn't like D.C.

I look forward to many more elections of outside money ratfuckers trying to primary "vulnerable" radical Illhan Omar having to watch her cruise to general election victory 75-25

I'd also endorse an age limit on presidents.

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 9 November 2022 bookmarkflaglink

So who would you have run against Trump a couple of years ago?

My mom.

She voted for Trump right?

Some talk about why Sinema didn't lift a finger to help out any AZ Democrats this election. Either she's so unpopular that no candidate wanted to be seen with her or she was trying to distance herself from anticipated losses, or she's thinking of switching parties.

I mean the real reason is probably that she's taking a pickling class but you know

Stop the steal type republicans taking the biggest losses here by looks of it?

Minnesota solidifies blue island status in the upper midwest:

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/democrats-win-minnesota-senate-to-gain-trifecta-control-of-state-government/

getting back some of these state legislatures (or wresting partial control away) in various states is a thing that's bringing me joy.

as that's one area where we've struggled, no doubt in large part due to unchecked gerrymandering held in place by conservative state Supreme Courts

👏 👏 👏

looks like Rs really did flood the zone with bad polls which convinced the morons at FOX that guys like Dr. Oz really were gonna win. curious how 538 reacts to this given they still have Trafalgar as an A- and they wound up missing several races by double digits

I was firmly convinced Oz had it

Indulge me in a little fan fiction: What if Bill Clinton's first act as president was introducing a bipartisan SCOTUS term limits act that limited each new justice to 18 years but allowed sitting justices to serve as long as they like?

Assuming the sitting justices would retire on the same schedule as they actually did, nothing would really change in the composition of the court until Obama took office. That's when it would get interesting. Obama would appoint Sotomayor and Kagan as usual, and then in 2011-12 (with a Democratic majority in the Senate) he would have an opportunity to replace both Ginsburg and Breyer with new liberal justices.

This wouldn't alter the 5-4 conservative majority. However, because no new justices were appointed between 1999 and 2003, Trump would not have an opportunity to replace anyone. Ginsburg would die in 2020, but it wouldn't matter because she would've already been retired for nine years.

Finally, in 2023, John Roberts would be obligated to retire, and Biden would be able to appoint a new chief justice (hopefully, the Democrats could hold onto the Senate in the 2022 midterms!). This would produce a new 5-4 liberal majority, which Biden could possibly expand to 6-3 in 2024 with the retirement of Alito.

jaymc, that's hotter than Brokeback slash fiction.

xp Wait, I think I forgot to factor in the death of Scalia.

I mean, that could really go either way, depending on whether Mitch McConnell still plays hardball in 2016. But even if Trump got to appoint Gorsuch in 2017, it would still put the liberals in a better position now.

hotter than Brokeback slash fiction

Wait, what would slash fic bring to to the BM universe? An Anne Hathaway cosplay 3some?

lol remember people wetting their diapers about this Dem strategy

And with this race call, every single Republican who won their primary with help from Democratic meddling has lost in the general election. https://t.co/jwu7diAq1N

— Kevin Robillard 🇺🇸 (@Robillard) November 9, 2022

Yeah, I'm still wetting my pants about it because it opens a really stupid can of worms that I can easily see the GOP taking advantage of.

Stop the steal type republicans taking the biggest losses here by looks of it?

― anvil, Wednesday, November 9, 2022 9:05 AM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yea I mean we've had three big elections since 2016 and it seems pretty clear that the Trumpy/fascist shit just doesn't work anymore. given inflation/gas prices/Biden's general unpopularity this should've been like a +50 seat pickup for Republicans and instead they're faceplanting because they decided to go full bore on relitigating 2020 and whining about trans people. also glad that the Never Trump Republican that the Ds ran in Florida totally ate shit because they need to get that dumb fucking idea out of their head for good. I mean they weren't beating DeSantis anyway but this might actually convince him to go for it in the general which would be pretty hilarious

what can of worms would that be xpost

I mean, that could really go either way, depending on whether Mitch McConnell still plays hardball in 2016. But even if Trump got to appoint Gorsuch in 2017, it would still put the liberals in a better position now.

Sorry, I'm dumb. If McConnell sits on the Garland nomination and Trump appoints Gorsuch, then everything still plays out as planned because the conservatives keep a 5-4 majority. And Trump would obviously still be able to appoint Kavanaugh in 2018 to replace Kennedy. The main thing that changes is that Ginsburg's death in 2020 doesn't matter, so Biden comes into office with the ability to change it to a liberal majority in 2023.

Their help = "How about not voting for this extremist asshole?" And the GOP took the bait.

I was firmly convinced Oz had it

Genuinely curious why. To me, "stridently local guy with existing power base and strong populist appeal" beats "smirking TV asshole from out of state" 1000 times out of 100. Was it just fatalism that made you think Oz was gonna win — a general "we suck, we're gonna lose" mindset? Because to me his candidacy was 100% a media creation.

it's gonna be wild to see half the maga types pull for Desantis and the culties go toward Trump

only because of the polls in days leading up. it seemed like momentum was shifting. definitely not anything OZ did to earn it.

If DeSantis wins the nomination (more fan fiction), Trump will absolutely go third party.

as a caretaker of a disabled stroke victim, Oz losing meant twice as much to me, esp since he fucking used the stroke as a point of attack.

I'm relieved Fetterman won. I found the responses to the debate completely disgusting, and it caused a lot of worry when this led to polls narrowing.

I don't think there's any way DeSantis wins the nomination. He doesn't have anything like the cult of personality that Trunp does. He's got the personality of a gym teacher/used car salesman

xp

DeSantis's national appeal will be shockingly (to, you know, political journalists and other idiots) low. He won't be as bad a national candidate as Giuliani (or Biden the first few times he ran), but a lot of people in states not named Florida are gonna respond to him with real disgust.

Their help = "How about not voting for this extremist asshole?" And the GOP took the bait.

― Malevolent Arugula (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 9, 2022 3:26 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yep. 100%

lol remember people wetting their diapers about this Dem strategy

My diaper was wet due to moral reasons more than strategic, but I'll admit I was wrong to worry about it backfiring.

But on the moral front, billionaires being able to purchase their opponents is bad not good imo:

Illinois Gov. J.B. Prtizker, a billionaire businessman, was the first to deploy the strategy, pouring tens of millions of dollars of his own money into the Democratic Governors’ Association, which aired ads boosting ultra-conservative state Sen. Darren Bailey in the primary. As of midnight on Tuesday, Prtizker was winning his race by roughly 14 percentage points.

The sooner you realize morals are out the window with this country the better off we will be.

I don't think there's any way DeSantis wins the nomination. He doesn't have anything like the cult of personality that Trunp does. He's got the personality of a gym teacher/used car salesman

― a (waterface)

or private school teacher hanging out at student parties.

on the moral front

Who's talking about morality? We're talking politics (and in that case, Illinois politics, so double LOL).

i mean

John Gibbs got washed in #MI03, the seat the DCCC took endless heat over after it helped him beat Peter Meijer in the primary. 13-point defeat in a seat Biden only won by 8.5 points. https://t.co/nGJA8xohlz

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) November 9, 2022

hahaha yeah that fits too, the private school teacher thing. I feel like a lot of people have had teachers like him and most people HATE teachers like him

The great lesson from Fetterman’s win is no matter what challenges you face, no matter how hard it’ll take to recover, cyberbullying the shit out of your enemies works

— Aaron Stewart-Ahn (@somebadideas) November 9, 2022

Pritzker's victory speech was interesting

Not sure why people think conservatives nationwide won't embrace DeSantis? Like both Bush Jr and Trump before their candidacies were sorry sacks of dumb shit. The GOP + the press will spackle DeSantis with the same crumbly electability, and it'll take way less work.

Apparently Pritzker made an astonishingly inspiring speech at his victory party, a speech you might almost call "presidential."

xp mh!!!!!

Glad Evers won in WI but feeling pretty gutted about that demon Ron Johnson likely winning as well

Not sure why people think conservatives nationwide won't embrace DeSantis? Like both Bush Jr and Trump before their candidacies were sorry sacks of dumb shit.

He has none of those guys' strange un-charm.

only because of the polls in days leading up. it seemed like momentum was shifting. definitely not anything OZ did to earn it.

― Fash Gordon (Neanderthal), Wednesday, November 9, 2022 9:27 AM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yea I think it's gonna become clear in the coming days that those polls were planted by GOP operatives

Not sure why people think conservatives nationwide won't embrace DeSantis? Like both Bush Jr and Trump before their candidacies were sorry sacks of dumb shit. The GOP + the press will spackle DeSantis with the same crumbly electability, and it'll take way less work.

It'll depend entirely on how gerrymandered the Electoral College is, but if DeSantis is the nominee his popular vote numbers will be fucking dismal. Yes, "conservatives" (gun-polishing knuckle-walkers waving Confederate flags) will be all in, but normal people will recoil en masse. Because remember, Trump wasn't fascist at first — he was showbiz. DeSantis is just an old-school Southern fascist goon. He's George Wallace.