U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

who did you stump for, who did you blow

KALEIGH ROGERS
NOV. 8, 11:34 PM
🚨 UPSET ALERT 🚨 In our first two upsets of the night (whenever the projected winner had less than a 40-in-100 chance in the final Deluxe forecast) ABC News projects that Democrat Emilia Sykes will win OH-13 over Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. Sykes had a 18.6 percent chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight’s final Deluxe pre-election forecast. And in Ohio’s 1st District, Democrat Greg Landsman is projected to win over incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Chabot. Landsman had a 16.1 percent chance of winning in the final Deluxe preelection forecast.

Wow with 86% of the vote in Warnock is down by less than 200 votes. And several big Democratic counties still have 10s of thousands of votes left to count.

not gonna get my hopes up but there appears to be a feeling that Tim Michels isn't getting the margins he needs in Wisconsin

I pretty much think 'runoff' is a foregone conclusion for that race, and I don't think Walker's odds in the runoff election are great.

Republican candidate Tim Michels has not yet conceded to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, but that is expected soon, according to insiders.

— Daniel Bice (@DanielBice) November 9, 2022

NYT has now bumped Wisconsin from Leaning Republican to Toss-Up for Senate.

boy would that be a huge one

ALEX SAMUELS
NOV. 8, 11:59 PM
(D) KEY RACE PROJECTED
Wow, ABC News just projected a pretty big upset in North Carolina’s 13th District. Republican Bo Hines, the 26-year-old former college football player who was backed by Trump, is trailing Democrat Wiley Nickel 49 percent to 51 percent with about 99 percent of the expected vote in. Our forecast gave Hines a 77-in-100 chance of winning, so Nickel’s expected win here is pretty notable.

Hines has been noncommittal about whether President Biden won the 2020 election fair and square (he did). And other election deniers — like Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado — are similarly trailing in their races tonight despite our forecast giving both candidates an edge over their respective Democratic opponents.

btw last time I visited my 92-year old grandma I made sure she got her absentee ballot. granted she's got dementia so I don't know who she actually voted for, but the one time she actually mentioned current events she said "what do you think of this Trump guy? I don't trust him at all. He seems like bad news."

AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
NOV. 9, 12:05 AM
BIG news out of Michigan. ABC News projects that Proposal 3, which would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, has passed. This means that abortion will remain legal in Michigan — and it’s also a big victory for abortion-rights supporters, who will undoubtedly see this as a sign that Americans are unhappy about the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and the subsequent wave of abortion bans in the south and midwest.

This result is a much bigger deal than the other abortion-related ballot measures because abortion’s legality was genuinely uncertain in Michigan, which is not the case in California or Vermont. And it’s significant to see a measure affirmatively protecting abortion rights pass in a swing state. Expect to see more ballot measures like this in 2024.

Well that's some fantastic news! Way to go Michigan!!

Dems are very likely gonna lose the House but if it's only by 3-5 seats then that is just an incredibly embarrassing performance for the GOP. Clinton lost 54, Obama 60, Trump 40. Biden is really not all that popular and his own party doesn't want him to run again in 2024. starting to think that maybe Trump being the single biggest asshole on the planet actually might have some political consequences

It's....looking that way. Won't get cocky.

I just want to hear that Boebert lost

The Rs will still keep trying to capture state legislatures until they can gerrymander and vote suppress their way back into full power. Until then they'll stall, obstruct and sabotage at every step.

I mean as a true sicko who's actually watching and keeping track of this shit I think tonight may wind up having the funniest possible outcome, which Rs only winning the House by like 5 seats, Boebert losing in a Trump +12 district and Dr. Oz getting stuffed into a fucking locker, plus it seems like Warnock/Walker is going to a runoff so control of the Senate might actually depend on a dude who's suffered triple-digit concussions, which is even funnier considering that Trump is probably gonna announce his 2024 run next week despite tonight showing that they probably have much better chances with DeSantis

want to make an Atari-esque video game called Boebert where there's only one cube and every move you make makes you plunge to your death

Warnock/Walker almost certainly going to runoff because of some lame Libertarian candidate who is drawing 2% of the vote lmao

Wiley Nickel is an incredible name.

RACE UPDATE: CBS News estimates the governor race in Arizona moves from toss up to leans Democratic. https://t.co/CaylI1Z3Yn pic.twitter.com/2MXFr8P2yx

— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 9, 2022

STOP THE COUNT!!!

lmao this tweet from a Republican House candidate

The RED WAVE did not happen. Republicans and Independents stayed home. DO NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE RESULTS IF YOU DID NOT DO YOUR PART!

— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores2022) November 9, 2022

was kind of more of a brown wave IMO

It's looking like a solid night for reform prosecutors around the country. Des Moines, Indianapolis, Hennepin, Maricopa... again it is clear - voters want a better justice system.

— Justin Kollar (@JustinKollar) November 9, 2022

the all crime all the time news ecosystem taking an L

so the PA race is called and Fetterman won!!!

fantastic

Oz already made comments making it sound like he'll be noisy on his way out, but he can just shove some essential oils up his ass for all I care

I always thought Fetterman would win, Oz was just such a terrible candidate. A better Republican might have been a different story, especially after the stroke. But good for Fetterman. I hope he continues to recover and can be a strong voice in the Senate.

exit through the giant inflatable colon, dr oz

Also that seat's a flip, so a little insurance against Walker/Warnock.

Imagine a midterm with 8% inflation and every single person in the country perpetually on the edge of breaking down in tears from the stress of existence and the opposition party not winning 250+ House seats.

Kari Lake eating shit would be extra delicious given this statement from this morning...

Kari Lake to reporters: "I'm going to be your worst frickin' nightmare for 8 years, and we will reform the media as well. We're gonna make you guys into journalists again." pic.twitter.com/wHTLqJssPe

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 8, 2022

so as it stands now, Dems get 2 of the final 3 toss-up seats (Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia), and that's 50 right there, all three gets them 51 and a chance to kick Manchin in the neener-nanny

motherfuckers act like they forgot about Sinema

Wait, what?

BREAKING: Slavery has officially been banned as punishment in Tennessee. https://t.co/AadakHWGdh pic.twitter.com/T4HzSGHlkU

— FOX13 Memphis (@FOX13Memphis) November 9, 2022

I get to decide if slavery is banned? wow

that's a good thing, only a few states have decided to skip that part of the 13th Amendment

i have checked out all night, checked in the last 5 minutes in reading this thread, going to bed now. i am so glad that, if nothing else, it wasn't a dominant night for conservatives. a difference of a few percentage points really is so important. i hope better times are coming ahead for all of us

and big ups to tennessee for banning slavery, they fucking nailed it tonight

Kari Lake appears to be getting trounced

was up 14 points but now 12. i think its gonna be close

also she just spoke and within the first 60 seconds was already calling into question the legitimacy of the voting cos some of the voting machines were down earlier today.

if/when Georgia goes to runoff, not great for Walker. no third party to siphon off votes. the 78,000 people who voted for Chase Oliver, some may opt to stay home, others may shift to Warnock.

Oliver is an openly gay Libertarian that supports ending qualified immunity for police, is a pacifist, and supports making it easier for immigrants to come to America, so I would guess most people who threw him a vote aren't going to pivot to fucking Herschel Walker (other than Republicans who hated Walker but couldn't bear to commit the Christ-offending sin of voting Democrat).

not to mention that's an extra four weeks for Walker to shit his pants, with or without Warnock's help.

Yeah I don’t think it’ll be a blowout but she’s apparently pretty well behind where she needs to be which is pretty significant because the polls had it as R+3

g'night all!

P.S., of all of the election deniers on the ballot, for their races that have already been called, 8 of them won, 11 lost (including Michel - race just called for Evers).

can Mandela do it

maxwell alejandro frost (dem from fl-10) becomes the first zoomer elected to congress and, well…

I’VE BEEN CAMPAIGNING FOR OVER A YEAR THIS IS WILD!! I’M GONNA SEE @the1975 ON THURSDAY TO CELEBRATE!!!

— Maxwell Alejandro Frost (@MaxwellFrostFL) November 9, 2022

the LA sheriff is eating shit btw

A tiny gop majority in the house is dangerous but it should at least be funny

Desantis’s success and trump’s ability to pick losers (or turn winners into losers) raises the possibility of a damaging presidential primary fingers crossed.

Smaller GOP majority presumably reduces changes of impeaching Biden, since they're unlikely to get every Republican vote.