U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

Ugh. Florida.

"Joe Biden is on the verge of being the most successful Democratic president in a midterm election that we have seen in quite some time" pic.twitter.com/1lc3ywKglk

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2022

okay can breathe a little easier now

NBC calls Josh Shapiro as the projected winner of PA governor's race.

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) November 9, 2022

curious what that means for Fetterman, I know there might be a lot of ticket splitting this election but somehow I don't think that is gonna break in Oz's direction

It's so weird to be part of two elections cycles in which Florida makes me feel as if the GOP lined me up to get shot while the rest of the country are like Ewoks after the Battle of Endor

yeeeeeah

Fetterman outrunning Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Our estimate now leans Democratic pic.twitter.com/KXfvvsug1e

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2022

Nate Cohn
It’s hard to get a clear sense of election results in the age of mail and early voting. But so far, there is little sign of a big red wave. On average, Democrats are running ahead of what the pre-election polls suggested, and the polls didn’t show a huge Republican lead.48m ago

DeSantis, like all incumbents (ESPECIALLY in this state) already had an advantage tonight the moment he won in 2018, but when the best you can do to oppose him is run an ex-Governor who LITERALLY WAS A REPUBLICAN, that's a good way to depress your own party's turnout. Not to mention, since you already had the damn job many years ago, everybody already knows what your fucking ceiling is. You can't get by on lofty promises and starry-eyed ambition because you already have a track record, and well, in his case, it stunk. It stunk in a much less harmful, more non-descript way than Rick Scott, but it still stunk.

just do better. Rubio, on the other hand, just wins because there's an R in front of his name, even though his voters literally make fun of him.

what homeopathic snakeoil is Dr Oz going to suggest his voters take to cope with his eventual loss

whoa Kornacki saying Bobert might actually be in trouble

at least she'll be home to stop her husband from flashing his genitals

odds of Ds retaining Senate are swinging in the betting markets towards Dems

Democratic chances of winning the House have... slowly started to tick up. Now up 29%, up from about 21% at the start. They're favored to win 208 seats up from 203 in our poll-based starting estimates

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2022

thanks for watching that Neanderthal, was gonna say the betting markets are probably pretty accurate but then I remembered how much money was made by live bettors in 2020 who knew Florida was definitely going red and that mail-in ballots were gonna heavily favor Dems. people were taking Trump -400 even as he was underperforming his polls lmao

JD Vance wins pic.twitter.com/3G1Tv3xa4D

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2022

please throw pig carcasses at him every time he makes a speech

kinda looking like a bad night for the Trumpy guys

lol if it turns out this was a real thing

One take that sounded like Twitter craziness but now feels right - Rs flooded the zone with narrative-friendly polls in the last week, results not matching up.

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) November 9, 2022

I mean I know they always are but man the Trafalgar polls were insanely wrong this time around

538 gave them an A- lmao

Cotton-Eyed Joe plays at the Mastriano party as Fox News projects Shapiro as the winner pic.twitter.com/itJXBSIA3e

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) November 9, 2022

who did you stump for, who did you blow

KALEIGH ROGERS
NOV. 8, 11:34 PM
🚨 UPSET ALERT 🚨 In our first two upsets of the night (whenever the projected winner had less than a 40-in-100 chance in the final Deluxe forecast) ABC News projects that Democrat Emilia Sykes will win OH-13 over Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. Sykes had a 18.6 percent chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight’s final Deluxe pre-election forecast. And in Ohio’s 1st District, Democrat Greg Landsman is projected to win over incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Chabot. Landsman had a 16.1 percent chance of winning in the final Deluxe preelection forecast.

Wow with 86% of the vote in Warnock is down by less than 200 votes. And several big Democratic counties still have 10s of thousands of votes left to count.

not gonna get my hopes up but there appears to be a feeling that Tim Michels isn't getting the margins he needs in Wisconsin

I pretty much think 'runoff' is a foregone conclusion for that race, and I don't think Walker's odds in the runoff election are great.

Republican candidate Tim Michels has not yet conceded to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, but that is expected soon, according to insiders.

— Daniel Bice (@DanielBice) November 9, 2022

NYT has now bumped Wisconsin from Leaning Republican to Toss-Up for Senate.

boy would that be a huge one

ALEX SAMUELS
NOV. 8, 11:59 PM
(D) KEY RACE PROJECTED
Wow, ABC News just projected a pretty big upset in North Carolina’s 13th District. Republican Bo Hines, the 26-year-old former college football player who was backed by Trump, is trailing Democrat Wiley Nickel 49 percent to 51 percent with about 99 percent of the expected vote in. Our forecast gave Hines a 77-in-100 chance of winning, so Nickel’s expected win here is pretty notable.

Hines has been noncommittal about whether President Biden won the 2020 election fair and square (he did). And other election deniers — like Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado — are similarly trailing in their races tonight despite our forecast giving both candidates an edge over their respective Democratic opponents.

btw last time I visited my 92-year old grandma I made sure she got her absentee ballot. granted she's got dementia so I don't know who she actually voted for, but the one time she actually mentioned current events she said "what do you think of this Trump guy? I don't trust him at all. He seems like bad news."

AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
NOV. 9, 12:05 AM
BIG news out of Michigan. ABC News projects that Proposal 3, which would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, has passed. This means that abortion will remain legal in Michigan — and it’s also a big victory for abortion-rights supporters, who will undoubtedly see this as a sign that Americans are unhappy about the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and the subsequent wave of abortion bans in the south and midwest.

This result is a much bigger deal than the other abortion-related ballot measures because abortion’s legality was genuinely uncertain in Michigan, which is not the case in California or Vermont. And it’s significant to see a measure affirmatively protecting abortion rights pass in a swing state. Expect to see more ballot measures like this in 2024.

Well that's some fantastic news! Way to go Michigan!!

Dems are very likely gonna lose the House but if it's only by 3-5 seats then that is just an incredibly embarrassing performance for the GOP. Clinton lost 54, Obama 60, Trump 40. Biden is really not all that popular and his own party doesn't want him to run again in 2024. starting to think that maybe Trump being the single biggest asshole on the planet actually might have some political consequences

It's....looking that way. Won't get cocky.

I just want to hear that Boebert lost

The Rs will still keep trying to capture state legislatures until they can gerrymander and vote suppress their way back into full power. Until then they'll stall, obstruct and sabotage at every step.

I mean as a true sicko who's actually watching and keeping track of this shit I think tonight may wind up having the funniest possible outcome, which Rs only winning the House by like 5 seats, Boebert losing in a Trump +12 district and Dr. Oz getting stuffed into a fucking locker, plus it seems like Warnock/Walker is going to a runoff so control of the Senate might actually depend on a dude who's suffered triple-digit concussions, which is even funnier considering that Trump is probably gonna announce his 2024 run next week despite tonight showing that they probably have much better chances with DeSantis

want to make an Atari-esque video game called Boebert where there's only one cube and every move you make makes you plunge to your death

Warnock/Walker almost certainly going to runoff because of some lame Libertarian candidate who is drawing 2% of the vote lmao

Wiley Nickel is an incredible name.

RACE UPDATE: CBS News estimates the governor race in Arizona moves from toss up to leans Democratic. https://t.co/CaylI1Z3Yn pic.twitter.com/2MXFr8P2yx

— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 9, 2022

STOP THE COUNT!!!

lmao this tweet from a Republican House candidate

The RED WAVE did not happen. Republicans and Independents stayed home. DO NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE RESULTS IF YOU DID NOT DO YOUR PART!

— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores2022) November 9, 2022

was kind of more of a brown wave IMO

It's looking like a solid night for reform prosecutors around the country. Des Moines, Indianapolis, Hennepin, Maricopa... again it is clear - voters want a better justice system.

— Justin Kollar (@JustinKollar) November 9, 2022

the all crime all the time news ecosystem taking an L

so the PA race is called and Fetterman won!!!

fantastic

Oz already made comments making it sound like he'll be noisy on his way out, but he can just shove some essential oils up his ass for all I care

I always thought Fetterman would win, Oz was just such a terrible candidate. A better Republican might have been a different story, especially after the stroke. But good for Fetterman. I hope he continues to recover and can be a strong voice in the Senate.

exit through the giant inflatable colon, dr oz

Also that seat's a flip, so a little insurance against Walker/Warnock.