U.S. Politics, November 2022: “I don’t know, you hear the same things I do”

The thing is, Biden does have real accomplishments he could promote.

If Dems were to plausibly run on a hope and change platform, there would need to be major movements on M4A, raising the minimum wage at a federal level, and so on. But too many of the party's people are just as in the pocket of the nefarious megadonor class and at the whims of lobbyists that it'll never happen....the reality is that these policies are winners, but people within the Democratic party act as if they're not because they're not policies that suit their own self-interest.

A minimum wage might have mitigated against inflationary pressures.

and also an excuse for raising prices

Lukashenko has outlawed inflation, you'd be ok.

Random note: a volunteer just knocked on my door, left a Wes Moore hanger, and cheerfully reminded me that today was Election Day. I assured her that I voted by mail weeks ago. Even in this safely blue state, it felt heartening.

between this and another damn hurricane (albeit one that looks to be milder than Ian), today is gonna suck.

Assuming GOP control of the House and possibly/probably Senate, yes, there'll be a lot of handwringing about Democratic messaging and leadership and being out of touch and whatever. A hard turn from DC consultants against talking about racial equity, LGBTQ issues, maybe even abortion. Most of that will be dumb, not least because a lot of these election results (the House especially) were functionally baked in regardless of other factors.

But it's also true — and will be true even if things aren't a total wipeout for the Dems — that the party really is lackluster, really does lack leadership and direction and vision, really has not articulated a clear much less inspiring vision for the future of the country. The GOP messaging is borderline insane — "Save our children from being mutilated by radical liberals!" — but it sure is simple and stated with great force. Even worse, I don't really see how the party fixes any of that itself. (Especially if Biden runs for reelection, lord have mercy.)

That's why I think the messaging and energy and coherence has to come from outside the party and force its way in. I don't have a magic formula for that, but it ain't gonna come from the DNC.

I don't have anywhere near the relevant training to know but perhaps part of the problem is Dems care too much about weighing every statement/decision by how it will affect their electability, which makes them too slow to react, too wishy-washy, and too easy to paint into a corner by their opponents. whereas Republicans just lie and shout their nasty messages, unfiltered, from the rooftops, knowing they'll alienate a big chunk of the population, but that they'll amp up their base's enthusiasm, and maybe peel off undecided dummies with their confidence and ability to stay on the attack.

would love to see a Democratic candidate just run an ad where they call their opponent a dumb motherfucker rather than trying to politely debunk what was said about them in previous attack ads and doing things like going "we're not woke, we don't want to defund police either, see!" to try and appease independents.

LIke quit falling for the gish gallop, quit taking the high ground, just hit back, be a damn liberal with teeth for once.

sorry, that was teethist of me

you're otm. Isn't that what Fetterman has done in Pennsylvania?

admittedly haven't been following that one as closely.

Senator Oz, if I hear those words tonight, flat screen tvs will cease to exist in a 10 mile radius of me

I guess it boils down to, most Democrats are so afraid to lose, they wind up doing it anyway

yeah Fetterman's race is the one to watch IMO, he was polling way ahead for a while and it seemed like they might actually have a blueprint on how to beat these morons who exclusively argue in bad faith. but it's tightened up a lot since then, so who knows.

A big chunk of Fetterman's message is "I'm just like you, only taller." Of course, he's also got a track record as the state's lieutenant governor, something the political press decided a year ago that they were just going to ignore so they could paint Fetterman v Oz as a contest of equals.

like literally, every goddamn D politician should go to every debate with a bullhorn and when their opponent lies, should blow the fucking thing, every time

*foghorn

Apparently the debate and the ablelist terms under which it was scrutinized changed few minds, as ever.

making them feel part of an aspirational moment in which they do belong to the Dem coalition

Yes! Making something seem fun and exciting and then inviting people to enter and invest in it, is just good organizing! But also, you have to have actual fun and excitement and things that feel transformative to offer.

But it's also true — and will be true even if things aren't a total wipeout for the Dems — that the party really is lackluster, really does lack leadership and direction and vision, really has not articulated a clear much less inspiring vision for the future of the country.

O______O

Re the Fetterman debate, hearing some of the actual audio was extremely upsetting as he struggled to articulate things and get words out. I'm astonished at the amount of campaign work that's been happening while he recovered and wasn't always visible or heading up the work. It's so interesting how his wife (who famously embraced being the SLOP--Second Lady of Pennsylvania lol!) stepped in and took up that space on his behalf.

We need better salespeople for some of these ideas - brash, charismatic, daring, but acting in the spirit of altruistism. That seems to be what so many people instinctively respond to.

(We have a few Democrats like this, but they aren’t really in seats of power.)

Yet.

A hard turn from DC consultants against talking about racial equity, LGBTQ issues, maybe even abortion.

I fucking wish Dems talked about LGBTQ issues as much as Tucker and Cruz and the rest of the GOP rogue's gallery likes to convince people they do. Sanctimonious tweets from Biden and Harris on Coming Out Day don't amount to shit. A lot of us haven't forgotten that "signing the Equality Act" was promised as a Week One priority. And yes I know that's predicated on getting it through the Senate, but I'm not the one who articulated that promise without a Plan B.

Was listening to the Know Your Enemy podcast the other day, I don't remember which episode, and at one point they were riffing on the (I think correct) idea that neither Democrats, liberals or the left seem to have a vision of "America" to sell — an idea or ideal of America. Obama did, kind of, but it was of course totally superficial, just basically "Hey, we're all the same, we all love our country, let's all get along." We can all maybe intuit that it's a vision of pluralistic multicultural democracy with a strong safety net and so forth, but it's not clear or well articulated and tends to sound programmatic rather than aspirational or inspiring.

We can scoff at that kind of appeal maybe, but it's politically important if you want to pull people together. The GOP obviously has a vision of America, and while it's a crabbed and cramped and exclusionary one, it's at least fairly coherent and explicitly rooted in (their version of) the country's past and traditions.

Yeah, let me emphasize that slogans aren't for Smart People like us on ILE. Other people like slogans! I was at this university in 2007-2008 and I'd quietly mock student enthusiasm for YES WE CAN but it fucking worked.

Idk imo we have a vision of the America we ("we" as progressives, abolitionists, and so on) but we also have an ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS public education & culture change project to prove to people who don't think of themselves as progressives, abolitionists, or what have you, that our project also benefits/liberates them.

We should all be training in change management imo.

I'm not saying there aren't animating ideas on the left, obviously they are. But there's not a compelling or inspiring public narrative around them that can resonate with an empowering idea of "America."

I get the yearning for fighters. And of course I hope the Fetterman style works in Pennsylvania.

But that type of candidate type (even foghorn-equipped) is not going to magically win in Wyoming or South Carolina or Tennessee or whatever.

Sometimes this line of thought annoys me a bit, like, "ok (Fetterman-style candidate) lost, but it was because he didn't have ENOUGH foghorns. What if he had had TWO foghorns?!?!?!"

There's not one election with one polity, there are thousands of each.

That's what inspired my first post. Of course access to abortion matters, but for the Cuban and South Americans I interacted with it's third or fourth on the list of priorities.

"Yeah, let me emphasize that slogans aren't for Smart People like us on ILE."

I like slogans, they aren't for stupid people -- good ones tell me the movement is in a good state, so they are vital.

thank you for doing what you do, alfred, and same to other ilxors who knock on the doors and phone bank and do all the stuff i admire but don't seem to ever do myself. i received one knock on my door this election season, a very shy and nervous and shaking young man who was there because my duplex neighbors put a giant sign for a fascist in front of our patch of sidewalk. i admired him and told him the same. it's hard to face people who are planning to vote for fascists and have already solidified their reasons for it.

i'm trying to limit what i say to positive things, so i will leave it there. good luck everyone

But there's not a compelling or inspiring public narrative around them that can resonate with an empowering idea of "America."

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, November 8, 2022 5:18 PM (nineteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah I agree but I think part of the reason for this lack is that there's not one "America" that everyone to the left of Republicans agrees on!

Idk maybe I'm just disheartened by too many "we talked to this union organizer in Pennsylvania and he says he can't convince any working class men to support rights for marginalized groups bc they're happy being racists and homophobes oh noes what will the Democrats do to win them over?" podcasts.

Yep I agree, the first thing is actually articulating a 2020s vision of the country that can tie together the various dreams and priorities of the liberal-left continuum. I think it’s doable, but it hasn’t really been revisited since the sad triangulation of the Clinton era.

i kinda liked c hayes take last week where he was "save our right to throw the bums out." sometimes you go with what you have left. but it's still pretty critical imo.

i don't know that my foghorn idea would have a greater chance of success, but if we're going to fail, I'd rather do it going balls-out and presenting a true vision confidently rather than micromanaging every idea/statement based on weaksauce ideas of 'electability' or who will be pissed off.

I mean, yes, there does have to be careful consideration of how to deliver a message to avoid alienating people, but Dems due it to maddening levels, ie giving lip service to anti-leftist ideas or saying "DEFUND THE POLICE? that's just CRAZY!"

Remember there's also a fuck-ton of voters, whether they will admit it or not, vote for the people they like/could have a beer with, as opposed to issues. tribalism has shrunk the influence of that group of people significantly, but they're still there. and the shit that turns them on/off seems arbitrary.

That Demings ad made me want to jump off a skyscraper.

i kinda liked c hayes take last week where he was "save our right to throw the bums out." sometimes you go with what you have left. but it's still pretty critical imo.

― i'm right back on my shit (Hunt3r), Tuesday, November 8, 2022 11:55 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is actually a great argument

And they elected an extremely unlikable non-drinker for president, so go figure. xxp

We need better salespeople for some of these ideas - brash, charismatic, daring, but acting in the spirit of altruistism. That seems to be what so many people instinctively respond to.

True, and I would also suggest we start asking more loudly why candidates like this have massive uphill battles trying to get thru the state party bureaucracy or challenging the establishment candidate.

I mean we know why, not totally sure asking about it more loudly will change anything. The people in the DNC establishment are all lining their fucking pockets.

Thanos just needs to snap

(BTW, Neanderthal, I don't wish to sound dismissive re: foghorns; I respect your passion and love your energy.)

Fetterman in Pennsylvania is a close election. Fetterman in Missouri would be 20 points down.

I totally get the frustration with milquetoastiness and the affection for brashness in service of honestly held principles, but. That unicorn Democrat who campaigns full-throatedly for all the things that "we" (broadly speaking) like? That candidate will definitely absolutely lose, bigly, in large swaths of the nation.

Without changing the structural obstacles, they will not get power. And without getting power, they will not be able to change the structural obstacles. Fantasies of storming the barricades with pitchforks abound. But if there were a way for them to look harmless, fly under the radar, sneakily get power, and THEN change things, I would be for that as well.

xp

I’d say a Fetterman-style populist absolutely could win in South Carolina. Public opinion in SC like many ruralish states is closer to Fetterman than the GOP on economic issues. Hate to say but one of the last big name populists before Bernie got big was *gulp* John Edwards, from NC. The Carolinas basically might as well be one state in terms of demographics (although it’s changing as the SC coast becomes more like Florida, etc).

Idk imo we have a vision of the America we ("we" as progressives, abolitionists, and so on) but we also have an ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS public education & culture change project to prove to people who don't think of themselves as progressives, abolitionists, or what have you, that our project also benefits/liberates them.

We should all be training in change management imo.

So much this. The issue isn’t so much a lack of vision as lack of an effective voice. The consensus vision on the left seems simple — we have plenty of functional social democracies to emulate. But we are operating in an absolutely hostile media environment. It’s as if this discussion is taking place in a nation without highly targeted ads on social media, or where the Supreme Court hasn’t ruled that campaign spending is protected as “free speech”.

I’ve mentioned before how I felt like there was a real smear campaign against both Bernie and Warren in the primaries. Now in Georgia I’m seeing constant ads on YouTube attacking Warnock — I’ve seen ads accusing HIM of abusing his wife, when there are multiple examples of credible stories of Walker being unstable and abusive. Just the standard reactionary victim blaming writ large through this toxic media environment we’ve let fester.

The pollution of disinformation can be just as toxic as the environmental pollution, and now we’re suffering from the failure to regulate the cancerous externalities of the information revolution.

Wish I could figure out a way to say that without sounding like such an enviro-geek.

The people in the DNC establishment are all lining their fucking pockets.

Yeah but they're a symptom more than a cause — one of bad aftereffects of the Bernie campaigns was this obsession on the left with the DNC. The DNC has never been very powerful or important, it's a misconception of their role to think otherwise. Any party has apparatchiks, if the party changes the apparatchiks either adapt or find themselves out on the street, but they're not the people to focus on.

The Kings County Democratic County Committee (lol terrible name) is by some measures the largest Democratic club in the country but can they be bothered to hold a phone bank or a single canvas for a beleaguered Democratic state governor facing a serious threat from a lunatic? CAN THEY FUCK. They've put zero resources into supporting any Dems this cycle on the state or local level. The reformer/insurgent lower level people are organizing canvases and doorknocking campaigns on their own with no funding!!

Weirdly (for East Tennessee) our local county Dem party is kind of on fire. They have a young, super energetic chairman who has a whole cadre of young volunteers and data crunchers, and they've been smart about recruiting candidates and door-knocking etc., at least for the small number of legitimately competitive districts we have around here. It's quite a contrast to our local Republican Party, which is a total shitshow run by an inexperienced doofus nobody in the party likes. They're coasting on having a mostly Republican county, of course, so they win elections even though their party apparatus is a shambles.

But anyway, just the level of energy the local Dems have is a big change from 10 years ago, shows it really matters if you get good leadership at the local level.