ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Zelensky is fighting a patriotic war he cannot win without massive infusions of advanced weapons and war materials from nations who will extract their pound of flesh in return.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Sunday, 23 October 2022 bookmarkflaglink

It's not what piece is saying. No state is asking Zelensky to implement that policy. Biden isn't ordering MSF to provide healthcare to all of the Ukraine.

i'm not especially familiar with russian television but hopefully at least some people who saw this were stunned into some sort of reaction?

Meanwhile on Russia's state-funded RT, director of broadcasting Anton Krasovsky suggests drowning or burning Ukrainian children, makes hideous comments about the rapes by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, says Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians who resist Russia should be shot. pic.twitter.com/BGIaBNok4v

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 23, 2022

i'm not sure how even the most duped person could watch that and reconcile it with "we're destroying the nazis"

Lukyanenko is booked as Guest of Honour at next year's Chengdu Worldcon (the big SF convention where they present the Hugo Awards), there's a huge amount of controversy going on about it in the SF world which I can't imagine this calming. Since the Chinese government like to stick their oar into the arts, and especially science fiction, it all has the capacity to blow up into god knows what.

Since i just read the dispossessed and since both interests are incredibly archist, nothing will be dine imo

My understanding is that Lukyanenko is famously and vociferously anti-Ukrainian.

Sorry, that may be common knowledge and that was your whole point, I posted while distracted by something!

This dirty bomb narrative (that Ukraine supposedly plans to use it) from Russia is escalating

First they had Shoigu call SecDefs of US, UK and France
Then Gerasimov called JCS Milley🇺🇸and CDS Radakin🇬🇧
Now Lavrov says he wants to raise it in the UN

Lots of worrying activity…

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) October 25, 2022

I still don't think Russia will go there, but if Alperovitch is worried then I'm starting to get worried.

i'm not sure how even the most duped person could watch that and reconcile it with "we're destroying the nazis"

Krasovsky used to be a liberal, pro-Ukraine, pro-LGBT, and came out as gay on Russian tv a decade or so ago but changed his mind a few years later . He has a track record for recommending drowning people also. He may be in something of a tight spot now if his usefulness has come to an end.

As to the nazi angle, partly depends how flexible the definition of nazi is, and the private/public face, I don't know how measurable this stuff really is

So it seems a Russian missile has landed in Poland killing a couple of people. Not good.

Yeah, posted in the US politics thread but probably belongs here. Or, potentially, in every thread.

i mean it was almost certainly accidental so this probably won't trigger Article V but still not the direction you wanna see this go in for sure

What's likely next

The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence. pic.twitter.com/n92JHvFqGv

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) November 15, 2022

russia just needs to say oops my bad within the next 12 hours

Polish reporter on blasts tonight: My sources in the services say that what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a [Russian] rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://t.co/h4B8wjgT7U

— Paul Cunningham (@RTENewsPaulC) November 15, 2022

Hello ww3 ! Just in time for www3

xpost reminds me of reports that the Russians have been aiming right up to the border:

Russian Strikes Hit Lviv, Kharkiv: Officials
By AFP - Agence France Presse
November 15, 2022

Ukrainian cities of Lviv in the west and Kharkiv in the east were attacked by Russia on Tuesday, officials said, following strikes on the capital Kyiv.

"There are explosions in Lviv," mayor Andriy Sadovy said in a statement on social media, calling on residents to stay in shelters, while Kharkiv's mayor, Igor Terekhov, said there was a "missile attack" on the city and that information about any casualties was being determined.

(Duh.)

🚨 Polish President Andrzej Duda: “Most likely, this was an unfortunate accident.”

He added that the missile was probably part of Ukraine’s air defense.

— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) November 16, 2022

The head of Belarus' Border Committee complained this morning about Ukraine's hostile actions: "They have mined the border area, blown up almost all the bridges in the Gomel and Mozyr regions. Now they are destroying all the bridges in the Volyn region. All roads are impassable." pic.twitter.com/oW8r4ms7Xs

— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) November 16, 2022

check out the hat on this guy!

v silly hat

why is it all military uniforms east of the danube and west of the pacific ocean look like this

cmon that hat rules

It is hat of strength

doesnt seem like hes wearing it with the right uniform tho

https://i.imgur.com/lMCwNHm.png

They have blown up the bridge to his wardrobe (now why would they do that w all those bridges? Just because Belarus in so tight w Russia)

this interview goes hilariously off the rails

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

baffled but grateful that anyone ever agrees to be interviewed by isaac chotiner

2nd time for this guy!

heads of state always tell the truth to each other, except for Hitler, who lied three times” is the greatest take I have ever read thank you

this reads like a play

I know Orbán said that the “hope for peace is named Donald Trump,” and suggested him as a mediator in terms of bringing the war to an end.

I don’t know that.

Orbán tweeted, “The #liberals have got it all wrong - that’s the bottom-line of our great conversation with Prof Mearsheimer today. We–”

Look, I don’t want to talk about Orbán. You told me that we were going to talk about Ukraine.

I don't even think Chotiner goes that hard here, but dude sure did have an utter self-induced nervous breakdown when the topic shifted to Hungary

foreshadowing

How was the Hungary trip?

It was actually fascinating. I learned a great deal. I was there for five days, Monday to Friday. I had a three-hour meeting with Viktor Orbán.

I’ve heard of him.

"Yesterday, December 8, 2022, the Russian military broke into the premises where the ZNPP's Department of Social Programs is located and, in the presence of other employees, severely beat the head of the department, Oleksii Trubenkov, and his deputy, Yurii Androsov. After a severe beating, the invaders took them out of the premises and drove them away to an unknown destination," the Energoatom press office said in a Telegram post on Friday.

"Through such actions, the occupiers are trying to gain loyalty from the courageous pro-Ukrainian staff," the statement continued. "Nevertheless the invaders fail to do so because the personnel resist."

..."The Russians have intensified their efforts in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are now in a very active phase of attempting to conduct offensive operations. We are advancing nowhere but, rather, defending, destroying the enemy's infantry and equipment wherever it tries to advance," Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a video message.

...Zambian Foreign Affairs Minister Stanley Kakubo said on Friday that a 23-year-old student who died in Ukraine, Lemekhani Nyirenda, had been pardoned for a drug offense and released from a Russian prison in exchange for fighting.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and Kremlin-ally known as "Putin's Chef," confirmed that Nyirenda was fighting in his Wagner private military force.

In an intelligence update posted to Twitter on Friday the British Ministry of Defense claimed the Russian military has likely resupplied its stock of Iranian Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones after running out of the previous batch.

"For the first time in three weeks, there have been reports of attacks by Iranian-provided one-way attack (OWA) uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs). These events remain to be verified, but it is likely that Russia exhausted its previous stock of several hundred Shahed-131s and 136s and has now received a resupply," read the update...

Left this out of the first part:

Additionally, Energoatom said Russian forces have placed rocket launchers at the nuclear facility "violating all conditions for nuclear and radiation safety."

Was struck by reporting in The Daily last week: Soviet-era grid (ca. 1968 version) is essentially the same, and Ukraine gov. "is convinced" that Moscow is just reading the old maps, w pinpoint precision re targets:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/podcasts/the-daily/russia-ukraine-winter-power-blackout.html Nevertheless, people are coping, so far.

I'm wondering to what extent two can play at this game. Drones are a cheap, asymmetric form of warfare that should theoretically favor the weaker combatant. If Russia can buy a bunch of cheap drones from Iran and fire them at energy infrastructure, then shouldn't Ukraine be able to do the same?

Iran wouldn't be interested in selling them to Ukraine. They already have a buyer in Russia they wouldn't want to alienate. NATO nations would hesitate to supply them without strong assurances about how they'd be used. But I bet Israel wouldn't mind being their supplier.

I think the recent attacks in Russian interior airfields show that Ukraine is in fact using drones extensively - they likely have domestic drone production going on, but have been pretty quiet about it

The Iranian drones use cheap Chinese-produced two-stroke motors (almost like lawn mower engines); it would sure be helpful if the Chinese would stop shipping them. But the Iranian drones are slow and ineffective, unless you send ten at a time. The Ukrainians have been shooting them out of the sky like passenger pigeons

rumour is that ukraine is modifying old tu-141 spy drones into medium range cruise missiles. but they only have 100 or so

as if things weren't bad enough over there, now they got another visit from Boris :-/

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-64363761

If they love him so much they can keep him.

the radiolabs pod on smuggling abortifacient pills into ukraine is kinda fascinating 'life during wartime' stuff, crossing with polish natalist/absolutedogma factors. not really sure the best way to post that link so i'll just

https://www.stitcher.com/show/wnycs-radiolab/episode/ukraine-under-the-counter-210997700

i cannot imagine how it is safe to podcast this unless the ring is totally broken up by now, which after listening to ep 1, it is. ?

Had read that Russian field commander was replaced because too close to this (Wagner) guy, and now:

On Wednesday, Prigozhin posted a picture on Telegram showing the bodies of several dozen slain Wagner fighters, piled unceremoniously in a courtyard. Alongside that shocking photo, he posted the image of a formal request from Wagner for more ammunition, pointing the finger of blame squarely at the Russian Ministry of Defense for squandering one of those lives.

Prigozhin posted a photo showing dozens of dead Wagner fighters, blaming "shell starvation" and lack of ammo supplies.

“This is one of the gathering places of the dead,” Prigozhin said. “These are the guys who died yesterday due to the so-called ‘shell starvation’ [by the Russian MOD]. There should have been five times fewer of them. So mothers, wives and children will get their bodies.”

Apparently, the message got through to someone. In a message and voice note Thursday, Prigozhin said a shipment of ammunition was now on its way to his forces.
...But Prigozhin’s latest stunt appeared to raise the ante in the oligarch’s confrontation with Russia’s defense establishment, and with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

...Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has become a remote and isolated leader since the Covid-19 pandemic, has no clear successor, and some political insiders speculated that some opportunistic upstart – a Prigozhin, for instance – might sense a potential opening or chance to build a power base independent of Putin.

Certainly, Prigozhin’s outbursts would have been unthinkable before February 24, 2022, when open criticism of the defense leadership by a military contractor would not have been tolerated. Earlier this week, Prigozhin escalated his spat with Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s General Staff, accusing them of “treason” for their alleged failures to support and supply the Wagner group in Ukraine.

“The Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of Defense are handing out commands right and left, that the Wagner PMC should not receive ammunition, they are also not helping with air transport,” Prigozhin claimed in a recording posted by his press service on Telegram. “This can be equated to high treason now when Wagner PMC are fighting for Bakhmut, losing hundreds of their fighters every day.”

Not everything Prigozhin says can be taken completely at face value. This is the man, after all, who helped bankroll one of Russia’s most notorious disinformation campaigns (from earlier graf: He even began to acknowledge his role in Russian efforts to interfere with the 2016 US presidential election, admitting that he had founded the Internet Research Agency, the notorious St. Petersburg troll farm that the US government has sanctioned for interfering in American elections). And the complaints about ammunition starvation leave unanswered myriad questions about the precise nature of the relationship of Wagner to the Russian military, how its formations are supplied with equipment, and who ultimately exercises command and control over its forces.

Analysis: How the situation in Moldova mirrors Russia's moves before invading Ukraine
Analysis by CNN's Rob Picheta

Tensions are mounting in Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s southwestern border, where Russia has been accused of laying the groundwork for a coup that could drag the nation into the Kremlin’s war.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of using “saboteurs” disguised as civilians to stoke unrest amid a period of political instability, echoing similar warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has meanwhile baselessly accused Kyiv of planning its own assault on a pro-Russian territory in Moldova, where Moscow has a military foothold.

Sound up. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov claims the war was launched against Russia and the audience explodes with laughter. pic.twitter.com/EQSZvH5CGz

— Frida Ghitis (@FridaGhitis) March 3, 2023

Sergei Lavrov in New Delhi, lamenting “the war which we’re trying to stop, and which was launched against us using the Ukrainian people.”

something extremely basic that i don’t understand about this war: why can’t russia just bomb all ukraine’s trenches with air power?

Because they can't. (The quick summary is that Ukraine's kept its own air force together and Russia's air wings basically found themselves dealing with an opposing force they couldn't roll over or simply defeat. There's more to it than that but basically that's it.)

Ukrainians have some pretty sophisticated ground-to-air weapons, as do the Russians... there was early speculation about who would control the skies but these weapons have largely kept it a ground war, supplemented by drones & missiles

Russians lost a bunch of helicopters early on, they're more careful now

Poland also helping out by sending Ukraine about a dozen MiG fighter jets.

I dunno I just thought that airplanes kinda made trench warfare obsolete.