what the fuck is happening in Russia?

The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows. ⬇️ /1

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

Seems to be "troops" from the separatist regions who are behind a lot of the more egregious behaviour carried out by the Russian forces - which makes sense, civil war and all that. I saw an interview with a young guy from one of the areas recaptured by the Ukrainians and he said the actual Russians weren't that bad but that the separatists were "crazy".

Sounds like a typical ilxor tbh.

― xyzzzz__

i'm pretty open about it tbh, my entire existence is spent in this state of shell-shocked brezhnevian malaise.

Come for what the fuck is happening in Russia?, stay for what the fuck is happening on what the fuck is happening in Russia?.

when the supply chain started breaking down i gave up. when i was a kid i was told that the reason america was better than the soviet union was the strength of our supply chain. the soviets, on the other hand, suffered random supply chains, random gluts. you couldn't plan for anything, it was more, well, what's going to be available this week?

i stopped being able to make plans a long time ago. the leaders i guess are still making noises and putting out their usual propaganda. there is no point in listening. they are talking to please themselves. what am i going to learn? why are the flags flying at half-mast this week? the dangers of enemies, domestic and foreign? half of the time i am one of the "enemies" they are warning against.

or perhaps they will tell me how much they care about trans people, this government that has for three years failed to listen to my pleas to call me by my legal name. every time i tell someone they are outraged and they assure me they will correct the problem immediately. i never hear from them again. my name is not corrected.

i have a strong work ethic. i like to work. i believe in work. what are they paying me for? what am i accomplishing with my work?

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack, i will have a breakdown and i will go on short-term disability and they will teach me how to better deal with My Problems. this is the only thing that can be done.

My Problems are the only ones i have the power to deal with. therefore it follows, does it not, that the best thing is to act as if the only problems that exist are My Problems. if there is a problem and it is outside of my ability, what good does it do me to dwell on it?

so i go back to my job in healthcare, where every day for the past several years i see people dying of preventable diseases, and what do they do? they call me a hero! a hero, like batman, or like stakhanov. see what good an ordinary man can do?

oh, or woman, of course. an ordinary woman. or an ordinary non-binary thing. person. thing. of course it does not matter what gender you are. you must understand this is all very new and it is very difficult for us.

the russians, sting tells me, love their children too. did my parents love me? very much. very much. did they hurt me, neglect and abuse me? yes. very much.

america loves me. america _cares_ about me.

they are tremendously supportive of me at my workplace. tremendously understanding of the mental illness i suffer. every few months or so, perhaps when the sky is on fire or perhaps when there appears to be a serious possibility that we will all die in a nuclear attack

you have to understand, the problem wasn't _really_ that i was afraid that we were all going to die, it was that my marriage was falling apart. that was what i learned in my treatment program. certainly nobody except for me and my ex can be held accountable for this. our workplaces were both very supportive of us during covid. they didn't want us to go into the office and spread diseases. we could work from home. they were responsible, they cared about us, and a lot of people were not as fortunate as us.

so we were responsible too. we spent all that time just with the two of us. we didn't talk to anybody else, because other people, you know, other people were not so responsible. we didn't want to be responsible for someone else's death due to our own selfish negligence. was it stressful, just the two of us together, nobody else, nobody to support us except for _the internet_? yes, certainly, but there is no reason for me to begrudge my employer and the wiser minds in my government their _concern for the general welfare_. obviously that had to be of the utmost importance.

but of course at the same time one couldn't... one couldn't hold people who were selfish and negligent responsible for that. is it _fair_ that sociopaths should reap the rewards while the rest of us bore the costs? doesn't matter. it doesn't matter what is fair or just, what matters what is _practical_, and the most _practical_ thing is to allow rich sociopaths to profit while we suffer.

the most practical thing for my ex and i was to sell our house, which we loved, which we hoped to grow old in together, and move into separate squalid rooms neither of us can quite afford on our own. people tell me that i will be happy for this, one day, that it opens so many more opportunities for me. like many russian people, i am used to people telling me things that i do not believe, and accepting their words without complaint.

Jeez the end of that xpost ChrisO thread of the two economists:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%. 31/

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) September 25, 2022

And how such decimation will contribute to

... Russia currently has manpower shortage with ever shrinking working age population

― anvil, Sunday, September 25, 2022

As an old WASP male American Deep South hepcat hubcap, I know some of where you're coming from, MoominT, re the frustration, rage, nausea, and struggle with default kneejerk cynicism, which can be a kind of survival mechanism and deadly for others, also plain worthless---I know it better looking over the shoulders of some Black commentators---glimpsing what they and you and Russians (and others) in Russia know more of---glad that some of the latter are making it across the border, so far---

That podium has seen some shit.

― borrowed Ostalgia for the unremembered 80s (MoominTrollin), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:02 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

That's one motivated looking military force

― I've seen things you people wouldn't belieeeeeeve!!! (Matt #2), Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:15 AM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Not going to link it here, but there's a video of one of those officers getting capped by a mobilized man in Úst-Ilimsk earlier today.

(not those specific officers, but same role different city)

A young man shot and wounded the chief recruitment officer at a military enlistment station in Russia’s Irkutsk region on Monday, local authorities said, as thousands of fighting-aged men continued to flee the country to escape being summoned to duty in President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The alleged shooter in the attack on the recruitment chief, at a military commissariat in Ust-Ilimsk, a small town in Irkutsk, apparently was distraught that his close friend had been called for duty despite having no prior military service.

Putin, announcing the partial mobilization, had said only experienced servicemen would be summoned. “We are talking about partial mobilization,” the president said in a national address. “In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.”

But there have been a torrent of reports all across Russia, including from ardent supporters of the war, of people being summoned for duty despite having no prior military service, or being too old or otherwise physically incapable of going to war.

And now---well, search with "Kremlin admits mistakes" (re mobilization)

BREAKING - Russian FSB security service says it has detained Japanese Consul in Vladivostok - RIA - Reuters News

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) September 26, 2022

twitter pundits are weird, so what is chris o saying, that if "russian civil society" doesn't collectively decide to hold mass protests against putin they're the ones responsible for any conscripts who die in the ukraine, because "russian civil society" has a "choice"?

god as if my monday wasn't shitty enough already

Unrelated to The War, but interesting:

MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin grants Russian citizenship to former US security contractor Edward Snowden.

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) September 26, 2022

So they can draft him!

I don't usually read much Twitter punditry, but was struck by this study he quoted, posted upthread:

Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops - British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%.

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did, and i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

also the curse of three letter acronyms strikes again, i can only read that as "do not resuscitate" troops, i can imagine that losses among soldiers who have DNR orders on file would be pretty severe

I thought it was the Department of Natural Resources, who are more accustomed to citing hunters for going over their bag limits or doing life-jacket checks on recreational watercraft.

i can think of one decision manning made that may have helped

She repudiated Glenn Greenwald, but that's probably not what you were thinking of.

now i'm wondering what the correlation between repudiating glenn greenwald and taking estrogen looks like, i mean it's a small sample size but i, too, repudiate glenn greenwald

seriously edward snowden not transitioning is a fucking tragic blow to humanity, the guy looks like abi thorn pre-transition and look how _she's_ turning out

look i know it's rude of me to say but i feel like chelsea manning has come out of things a lot better than snowden did

this seems uncontroversial

.. anyway, what the fuck is happening in RUSSIA

A few hundred (mainly female) protesters gathered in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk earlier today to protest mobilisation

While performing the Yakut Osuokhai folk dance they shouted "no to war" and "no to [Yakut] genocide", local media report https://t.co/DZlvHcXRAI pic.twitter.com/MBiukhr8Pl

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) September 25, 2022

They chose an interesting staging ground for the protest; the statue in the background is of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platon_Oyunsky

A Yakut communist, playwright, translator, statesman, and eventual victim of the Great Purge, he was posthumously rehabilitated in the 1955; a statue of him was erected in 2003.

I kept searching trying to figure out who it was but the results kept coming up with Lenin, whose statue has graced the main square in Yakutsk since 1967. Despite being described as Yakutsk's "cultural heritage," however, its future remains uncertain. Critics point out that plans for it to be refurbished this year have run into budgetary difficulties: not all of the funds necessary have been allocated.

Newly mobilized Russians are told what they need to take to the war. Spoiler - pads and tampons.
(English subtitles) pic.twitter.com/CumYqqpuit

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2022

also in the bizarro russian news: “a petition to provide vegan and vegetarian military rations has gathered over 25000 signatures”

'ask your family to send tourniquets!'

geez that inspires confidence

Looks like enlistment/mobilization centers being set up at the Georgian border at the main Verkhnii crossing. If true, looks like effecticvely like a partial border closing

Questions about the capacity of Georgia (and to lesser extent Armenia) to absorb anti-mobilization Russians (also maybe between March exiters and September exiters)

welp, the votes are in, everybody wants to join the Russian Federation - that's democracy in action

Solovyov gets drafted and goes crazy. pic.twitter.com/bd8lMf4zFi

— RealSubtitles (@R82938886) September 27, 2022

A weird people in my uneducated opinion

RIP red tie man

I do not think those are real subtitles.

If they are, that's a really weird exchange

click through and it’s made very clear they’re fake comedy subtitles

yeah not really sure what’s the purpose of this tweet or the fact that reposting it might not provide the necessary context.

the original exchange is revolting - and should be presented as such.

in the actual bizzaro russian news: those who are drafted are advised to buy and bring their own supplies. clothing, first aid etc

which essentially means: you can buy better chance of survival - if you can afford it.

if Russia wanted to preserve the illusion that they're still a world-class fighting force, this incursion has pretty much shattered it.. creaky old equipment, poorly trained & supplied troops, a chaotic command structure, rampant corruption, looting, etc. They have plenty of cannon fodder, but that's about it.

i’m holding slight hope it’s these kind of news that will contribute to mass discontent - because this is something that they can’t blame ukraine for

.. or the west

in the actual bizzaro russian news: those who are drafted are advised to buy and bring their own supplies. clothing, first aid etc

This was an issue with American troops in Iraq 2 as well, iirc.

I was gonna say.

maybe we just need one general what the fuck is happening thread

#onethread

What do Russians think of the Pitchfork 90s lists?

how the fuck do you leave off Yegor i Opizdenevshie??

from meduza:

sources close to kremlin say the russian government is not in the rush to annex because the "PR effect during mobilization will be close to zero". they also say the kremlin understands that russians haven't been convinced yet the annexation is necessary, although the official propaganda says the regions are economically beneficial, and referendums followed by annexation is an absolutely "normal process" - including the west (quoting such examples as texas joining the US).

there is also the thinking that such a delay would leave some room for negotiations. although currently the main headache for moscow is the wide spread discontent due to the mobilization. the kremlin conducted a closed survey and the results were not to their liking.

it appears the plans to block the borders for any men within the drafted age group are on hold for now - "we underestimated the amount of people trying to flee and we can't risk it - because we don't have enough enforcement".

reminds me of playing Command & Conquer, I know exactly what point in the game he's at