Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting; 2019 Vlad Guerrero Jr/Blue Jays thread

Baltimore's getting crushed, Seattle's got Atlanta (eight-game winning streak) tonight, Gausman pitching--great opportunity.

This is what the Jays have gotten from the catcher position this year:

.282/.356/.451, 21 HR, 65 R, 72 RBI

Jansen now has 12 HR in 156 AB.

I’m glad with Moreno up they are DH’ing Kirk more; Jansen is just such a better catcher.

bo is hitting .500 in Sept

The clip where Bichette almost gets it in the face is in here--scary.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bo-bichette-hits-go-ahead-homer-as-blue-jays-beat-rays

Toronto's in that weird spot where winning the wild card likely gets them Tampa Bay or Seattle, but finishing third gets them Cleveland. I think--I might have that wrong. On the longshot that they can catch New York, that'd be a bye, right?

if they catch new york and take 1st, they get a bye. the next best option, indeed, looks like finishing in the last Wc slot so they can face the guardians

Yeah, but if they finish 6th and win the WC series, they get the #1 seed (prob. Houston) in the next series and if they finish 3rd they get the Yankees. With the extra playoff round I think you'd always want the best possible WC seeding.

Man, that Bradley Zimmer can fly--love him!

Man, that Alejandro Kirk can fly--love him!

I will never stop saying this: watching Kirk round 3rd is my favourite thing in baseball.

I realize this is one of those meaningless mix-and-match contraptions, but it's our guy we're talking about, so it's okay.

Bo Bichette in 11 games this September for the @BlueJays:

24 hits
21 RBI
15 runs
7 home runs
6 doubles

Since RBI became an official stat in 1920, the only other MLB player to reach all of those numbers over an 11-game span was Lou Gehrig in June 1930.

— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) September 13, 2022

I was looking at Bichette's splits, and one odd thing is that he's hit right-handers as well as ever this year, but he's way down vs. left-handers. He'd be having a stellar season otherwise, instead of just a pretty good one, which is where he's at thanks to this insane hot streak.

Not sure whether I should feel happy the Jays won 3 of 5 from Tampa, or frustrated that they couldn't finish them off today.

Didn't even realize this when I posted that:

https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-lineup-all-latino-players-on-roberto-clemente-day

So, a great thing--as long as the Jays don't miss the playoffs by a game, I'm happy.

come on man

It’s mcclanahan dude. Cant really be upset about losing to him.

I just feel like--intuition, could be totally wrong (and easily checkable)--the Jays have had a poor record in closing games of series the last couple of years, that they miss opportunities to sweep or win three out of four, or today to win four out of five. Against mediocre teams, same thing. And my sense is it cost them last year.

But I will check this and see if there's anything there.

Did this quickly: I have them at 21-24 closing out series this year, which would make them 60-39 in other games. I don't know if that's random or not.

Doesn't apply last year, when they were better in closeout games.

I can't complain, but sometimes I still do.

Daily Bo update: 15 games this month, 11 of them multi-hit. He's now seven points above last year's OPS+ (in part because of league decline in offense).

OPS+ is indexed so that 100 is league average. It adjusts with the year/hitting environment.

Right--he's having a slightly less productive season than last year, but offense is down league-wide, so his OPS+ is up seven points.

Yeah, the mlb-wide decline in hitting makes what Judge is doing even more bonkers

Good Jay Jaffe piece on Gausman:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fip-or-flop-why-kevin-gausman-isnt-part-of-the-al-cy-young-conversation/

1) He's been historically unlucky this year--his BABIP of .365 is the highest ever (or at least since 1901);

2) It may not just be bad luck, though--teams tend to hit him hard. (I notice the seeing-eye singles more, but I guess there's more to it.)

I just feel like--intuition, could be totally wrong (and easily checkable)--the Jays have had a poor record in closing games of series the last couple of years, that they miss opportunities to sweep or win three out of four, or today to win four out of five.

And you think I'm crazy...I down there today, and the loss aside, it was pretty great: Manoah, Teoscar's catch, A TRIPLE PLAY (I'd never even seen one on TV), and Bichette in the bottom of the 9th with a chance to win it. The blown save hurt.

Blowing two big leads would be very ominous.

Not to worry...The Phillies catcher throws four Eephus pitches to Jansen (one timed at 38 m.p.h.), then sneaks in an 84-m.p.h. fastball for a swinging strike three. Funniest thing I've seen this year.

(one timed at 38 m.p.h.)

i am looking forward to watching this soon. that's the slowest radar reading i've ever heard of

what is the slowest you can throw a pitch in earth air and have it reach the plate without bouncing?

if you throw it incredibly hard, almost straight up, like 200 feet high on an arc, and then it lands directly on the plate, wtf is the mph reading on that?

clemenza please pass this question on to the incredibly cranky bill james

Bill: Theoretically, what is
Asked by: clemenza

Answered: 9/20/2022
You're actually, not just theoretically, wasting my time here.

Yes. Wake him, if you must.

theres a quora answer with a bunch of math im too tired to read that says there is a slowest possible pitch, and it's 28.5 mph ignoring wind and spin. this is assuming that speed isn't calculated by time the ball leaves the hand -> time the ball is in the catcher's mitt, otherwise you could approach zero with km's "throw it straight up" approach

Physicists (@pobguy?) can better speak to this than I can but I believe to get a 35 mph pitch to reach the plate requires a pretty significant parabola. Eephus or it's not reaching the plate. Hard to throw much slower than this. https://t.co/FFa95sBgth

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) June 13, 2022

35 mph in june

I can't play this for some reason, but you may be able to--the strikeout last night.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/video/phillies-catcher-stubbs-plays-rope-dope-blue-jays-jansen-hilarious-strikeout/

Seems to be working...Shulman: "Oh...oh--that's not right."

I love Shulman so much

More than the losses to TB, the runs they're giving up is a big problem, and I'm including the 18-11 win vs PHI as part of that problem. I have very little confidence in this team winning a playoff series right now.

I know the "shutdown inning" is an annoying cliché, but tonight and that game against the Phillies, the pitchers have been giving back runs as fast as we score them.

Two tough losses for the Orioles, disastrous loss for the Mariners; finally feels like we're in the clear.

I think the league is more or less set, just shuffling the Order of wild card teams, which may aswel be random

1987 turned me into a hand-wringer for life.

Back-door clinch.

I think this team's Achilles heel going into the playoffs is grounding into double plays, something they lead the league in. So many potential rallies killed.

Shitty base running and admiring their doubles has been their weakness lately. (Also 2/5 of their rotation)

Looking at the playoff schedule, I thought at first they could get through the first two series with three starters. They can't, unless Manoa and Gausman go on three days' rest for a couple of starts. I guess they just go with Berrios and cross their fingers.

As they point out on broadcasts, he's been significantly better at home this year (mediocre vs. terrible).

yeah, i'm thinking of a similar playoff rotation/pitching conundrum for the Cardinals as well. It's nice to host the Wild Card, I guess, since 3 games are at home. But the lack of days off between the games means that whoever starts Game 1 of the Wild Card probably wouldn't be ready until Game 2 of the Division series (unless they're some kind of legendary beast like Scherzer or whatever)

Double Plays Grounded Into

1. Guerrero • TOR - 26
2. Urshela • MIN - 21
3. Martinez • BOS - 20
3. Bichette • TOR - 20
5. Abreu • CHW - 19
5. Rosario • CLE - 19
5. Miranda • MIN - 19
8. Bregman • HOU - 17
8. Correa • MIN - 17
8. Arozarena • TBR 17
8. Hernandez • TOR 17