BURNPIT: U.S. Politics, August 2022

My guess at this point is that they win the senate and lose the house, but with a very small gop majority and because the gop house caucus is ungovernable and insane the effectiveness with which they work is reduced. They’ll still impeach biden though.

This is an outlier so far but would be very nice

#NEW Florida Senate General Election Poll:

Demings (D) 48% (+4)
Rubio (R-inc) 44%

University of North Florida (8/8-8/12)

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 16, 2022

So is this: https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/16/nikki-fried-up-against-charlie-crist-unf-poll-florida-governor-race-democratic-primary/10306971002/

more analysis of the washington primary results, a little less positive than the politico piece: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/08/16/what_washington_states_primaries_predict_for_the_midterms.html

neanderthal and alfred (and other floridians) what do you think about the senate race? i don't know anything at all about Demings, so my opinions are only about Rubio. he seems like a continuing national embarrassment to me, but does he actually still have a strong base of support in FL?

Didn’t he basically run his last re-election campaign promising to be a check on Trump?

I still think Rubio has a chance b/c Cuban conservatives will swallow their considerable contempt (and it's there -- they think he's a coward and a fool) to avoid voting for a Black woman socialist; but that outlier UNF poll shows Demings catching up.

She has thankfully stopped running this ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SofFXAdM_MM

And how beatable is DeSantis? He barely won election in the first place, but all of his psychotic bullshit has made him genuinely popular, right?

With the Dems' Senate chances improving weekly, who knows? The usual midterm patterns may not manifest. xpost

And how beatable is DeSantis? He barely won election in the first place, but all of his psychotic bullshit has made him genuinely popular, right?

― but also fuck you (unperson), Tuesday, August 16, 2022

idk -- Don't Say Gay's effects we're seeing this week already as kids return to school.

Did y'all know we professors have to send our syllabi to Tallahassee now?

Didn’t he basically run his last re-election campaign promising to be a check on Trump?

― Western® with Bacon Flavor

yeah, exactly! that's why i have no idea what he has going for him. i don't understand what accomplishments he's pointing to. he's had 12 years to do something!

He shares responsibility for re-introducing "widdle" into the popular lexicon.

16% of Black renters have either been evicted or threatened with eviction in the past year

A majority of Black renters do not have enough saved to cover one month of expenses

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/09/1112895439/eviction-affordable-housing

xpost knows exactly what he's doing

Be sure to tell everyone that this is a law now, because of Democrats, since a lot of people don’t pay attention.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/16/biden-signs-inflation-reduction-act-00052233

This pics shows him definitely NOT wearing a mask during the signing... which they WH said he'd be doing for ten days after his wife's positive diagnosis

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/16/biden-reconciliation-inflation-reduction-act

It would surprise me if he's still contagious.

I noticed he took his mask off before his address. But we're the only ones noticing this shit anymore. I thought he'd get zinged for the omicron surges in spring and summer, but, yeah, nope. Apparently no one cares enough.

Thanks, Obama https://t.co/5KZfiXIGgd

— President Biden (@POTUS) August 16, 2022

Theory: Fetterman social media strategy is taking over the Democratic Party like the Venom virus

— Populism Updates (@PopulismUpdates) August 16, 2022

Cheney: Two years ago. I won this primary with 73% of the vote. I could easily have done the same again. The path was clear. But it would've required that I go along with president trump's lie about the 2020 election.. That was a path I could not and
would not take. pic.twitter.com/vRq0Fdz4x1

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 17, 2022

https://media.makeameme.org/created/if-you-strike-turht6.jpg

She's going to raise so much money from stupid people to get 348 votes in the 2024 primary.

Would make more sense to run as a 3rd party wrecker in the general

make more sense for who?

Theoretically a third-party Cheney candidacy would deliver a few thousand never-trumper GOP votes, and perhaps a few dozen conservadems (Manchinites?).

Because all normal humans understand that there is no hope at all for any third-party candidate, these would be people who feel that casting a "principled" protest vote is more important than affecting the result.

If this tiny number of votes happened to be correctly distributed, it could make a difference, probably in favor of Democrats. But it's not likely. Most voters are partisan, even if they have to hold their nose.

I don't know, in 2020 Joe Biden needed every single anti-Trump vote to win. I think Liz Cheney running as an independent in 2024 would benefit the GOP.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/08/cheney-2024-all-mimsey-were-the-borogroves

I guess the spoiler question comes down to (a) whether you think the hypothetical third party is likely to peel more votes away from Biden or from Trump, and (b) how many votes you think each is getting to begin with. If the spoiler is mostly picking up anti-Trump Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, that's great for Biden. If they're peeling off anti-Trump Republicans who actually did make the jump last time, that's bad for Biden. But how many any of any of those people actually exist?

(To be clear, I don't think Cheney gets more than 348 votes as a third-party candidate either.)

xpost Ha.. I love the comments section on that, riffing that it was DeSantis who tipped off the DOJ on the Mar-a-Lago docs

y'all are assuming she doesn't just switch parties and make the 35-40 of the most obnoxious columnists/ pundits alive wet their pants

Friedman for one

so Dick's daughter would jump parties in this scenario to help elect Trump?

Too bad Yang already started his new party, he could throw something together with Cheney and Evan McMullin.

(i'm mostly joking but hey stranger things have happened. obviously can't see her doing this unless Biden doesn't/ can't run and the primary becomes a free for all)

xpost

y'all are assuming she doesn't just switch parties and make the 35-40 of the most obnoxious columnists/ pundits alive wet their pants

This will never, ever happen. Cheney is one of the most hard-line Rs in the country. Being anti-Trump is literally the only thing separating her from the rest of the slavering horde.

being anti-Trump makes her virtually unelectable as a Republican. if she wants to be in elected office again she’ll have to move to the Acela corridor and/or become a Democrat

Ten years from now, assuming we haven't descended into some form of white supremacy/Christo-fascism by then, Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

This is very, very good news, not just because it'll help solidify the Democrats' Senate majority, but because Ron Johnson is a rancid, melting turd:

In new Marquette Law School Poll, 51% of registered WI voters support Democrat Mandela Barnes, 44% support Republican Ron Johnson in US Senate race. In June @mulawpoll, it was Barnes 46% and Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 17, 2022

Ten years from now, assuming we haven't descended into some form of white supremacy/Christo-fascism by then, Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

No way, they’re going to deify him like Reagan.

My money is on a Bush-like disavowal.

Republicans will be all, "Donald who?"

hope you're right but i just can't currently get there from here

anyway, i'd be shocked if Liz isn't already taking meetings with Dem strategerists at the very least

I don't think historical precedent is much of a guide for how Trump will be viewed in future

Cheney seems like she's gonna have a nice career giving speeches to companies which lean Republican for tax/regulatory reasons but hire mostly college grads who, last I checked, don't much like Trump either

Because we'll be dead. xpost

Dobbs + inflation moderating/gas prices coming down looking to be pretty significant tide turn for Ds

passing the climate bill too, since it **finally** gives the Dems something significant that they can point to and say it never would've happened had they not won those 2 Senate seats in GA

Cheney = Instant MSNBC contributor

The Cheney & Psaki Show

Republicans lost their opportunity for “Donald who?” years ago. The great mistake for many of us was imagining there would be enough of them who wanted an off ramp.