Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

interesting

it's a meme stock that has a super low float...any attempt by the company to take advantage of the situation by selling a significant block into the demand would probably tank the stock price, unless they did something like an at the market offering like AMC did back when AMC was meme-y

Market cap is not even that meaningful when less than 10% of a Company’s stock trades. This is basically a penny stock style pump and dump but on a larger scale, maybe using more sophisticated means of manipulation.

Also it’s already way down

There is no recession. In fact, there's apparently an insanely strong recovery. A thread:

Put that recession talk away, and change the subject. A vibecession ain't no recession:

July payrolls came in at a huge +528k, and unemployment is down to 3.5%.

A whap-bop-a-loopa-a-whap-bam-boo!

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) August 5, 2022

Oh shit, recession inflation! RIP Biden.

Oh yeah? If the economy is so great how come I see “Help Wanted” signs everywhere?

Jobs don't kill people, people kill jobs

before

This is from Fox Business yesterday: Former Trump economic advisers Larry Kudlow and Kevin Hassett dismissed Wall Street expectations of a 250K jobs report for July, insisting in this recession it would be “closer to 100 … way on the downside.”

Numbers just came out: 528K. pic.twitter.com/CH511twjYr

— Eric Kleefeld (@EricKleefeld) August 5, 2022

Here’s ⁦@ABC⁩ NEWS …accidentally releasing a pre written jobs report story with “XYZ” filling in for the coming numbers.. read the text… it is Amazingly wrong. pic.twitter.com/mROXiGB9if

— Hal Sparks (@HalSparks) August 5, 2022

after

July’s job’s report defied expectations of an economic slowdown, will make it harder for the Fed to dial back the brisk pace of rate increases and suggests a period of “higher for longer” rates is becoming more likely https://t.co/Yc7ljPFWur

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 5, 2022

before: "there's a recession"
after: "there's not a recession but there's a democrat in the whitehouse so we better induce one"

Note Biden labeled as "Biden":

my read of the current economic situation and why the corporate media reports strong job reports as bad news: pic.twitter.com/ilrK4D4wbo

— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw) August 5, 2022

I really do feel like the newspapers are in a cycle of "job growth is bad, unless there's not job growth, in which case lack of job growth is bad"

As I learned long ago from H. L. Mencken, newspaper editors view their job in regard to any events having a political dimension as either to 'point with alarm' or 'view with satisfaction'. On the whole, I find that 'point with alarm' outpaces 'view with satisfaction' at about a 10:1 ratio.

oof!

(except $TWTR haha)

looks like the rail strike discussed above is ... picking up steam again

Might be happening!

I had the same thought today. Hoping we are both wrong. Are you keeping notes for a sequel to your book? https://t.co/s4ftPFKP92

— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) September 24, 2022

lot of rumors that credit suisse might be going under this week

Traditionally October is the scariest month in financial markets.

Hedge funds:

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/427/549/b9d.gif

Or rather!

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/427/549/b9d.gif

This is pretty fascinating. People who bought GameStop for fun have now developed a whole economic belief system around it.

I've been digging into the communities surrounding meme stocks and, like, it's weird man. Somehow a short squeeze opportunity back in 2020 has mutated into a straight up apocalypse cult trying to trigger the end of the world.

— Dan Olson (@FoldableHuman) October 10, 2022

just feels like this has a Lehman Bros in 2007 flavor to it, idk. Monitoring.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 10 March 2021 06:54 (one year ago) link

The second biggest position in the Greenhill-backed Credit Suisse funds is a "smart window" company called View that's also a SoftBank company (surprise!). It just went public a couple days ago via a SPAC.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 10 March 2021 07:00 (one year ago) link

Course that was before the Archegos thing also blew up

(smart window company not really significant, just for context that it was CS-related)

this thread has been calling the next financial crisis as just around the corner for over a decade. one day it will be right

it’s here

wanna put some money on it?

Can I pay in Damian Hirst NFTs?

pay me in broken clocks ;)

Do you think the fed is slowing things down too much? That seems like the proximate danger at this point (along with whatever the fuck the uk does to the bond market)

As LA goes, the rest of the country follows.

The LA trucking market is a leading indicator of activity across the rest of the US, providing a 2+ week advanced look at the rest of the market. Vols out of LA have now dipped below 19 levels (note: this is “peak” season). pic.twitter.com/gAUV2e6cLU

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 11, 2022

Housing market seizing up because no one can afford to buy, and no one in their right mind would sell, also seems bad.

my stepmom was telling me that when she & her first husband bought their first house (late 60's?), the interest rates were like 15-18% for everybody

Of course, houses were $50K, but interest is interest

When my parents bought the house I largely grew up in, in 1980, interest rates were well into the double digits. Maybe 18%.

15% interest hurts a lot less if the loan is 2x your annual salary rather than 20x.

The housing market today is the worst of both worlds - high prices and high rates, and the high rates are not going to rapidly bring prices down, it's just going to crush inventory. If you're locked in at a low rate and you sell, you have to buy at a high price and high rate. There aren't a bunch of resetting ARMs to trigger a price crash like there were in 2008. The only way housing costs truly come down is if there are job losses, which also benefits no one. I don't really get what the fed thinks it's doing, tbh.

When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

this is in a British context but explains why mortgage interest rates now are about the same as the much higher mortgage interest rates back in the 90s, in terms of affordability

or what caek said

🧵RISING INTEREST RATES ARE A BIGGER DEAL THAN YOU MIGHT THINK🧵
This is important (hence the caps).
I’m a bit worried people are being WAY too complacent about rising interest rates.
They assume that because they’re so low now vs the 1990s, this’ll be a walk in the park.
NO.

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) September 22, 2022

I don't really get what the fed thinks it's doing, tbh.

Congress has been unwilling to employ tax and fiscal policy in a sensible manner for approximately half a century. This leaves monetary policy struggling to do things that monetary policy does very poorly.

The only way housing costs truly come down is if there are job losses, which also benefits no one. I don't really get what the fed thinks it's doing, tbh.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, October 11, 2022 7:56 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

the fed isn't trying to get house prices down, it's trying to get inflation down. houses aren't in cpi

house prices are never going down imo

weren't you arguing a month or two ago that low interest rates were what's driving inequality?

Congress has been unwilling to employ tax and fiscal policy in a sensible manner for approximately half a century. This leaves monetary policy struggling to do things that monetary policy does very poorly.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Tuesday, October 11, 2022 11:28 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

what tax and fiscal policy do you have in mind? most inflation right now is from fuel prices and past fiscal policy. other than miraculously getting sudden abundant cheap energy or austerity, there isn't that much to be done tbh

most inflation right now is from fuel prices and past fiscal policy

Those past failures are what I was referencing. I wasn't suggesting that half a century of crappy tax policy could be miraculously fixed this month after five decades of mismanagement, rather that monetary policy used as a standalone tool is a very inadequate tool to fix a badly regulated national economy and at times like these it shows.

U.S. economy grows 2.6% in third quarter, reversing a six-month slump

\_(ツ)_/¯

shh people are trying to speak a recession into existence

Perfect case study of how “Everyone feels like a genius in a bull market” pic.twitter.com/MNCVwr8hRZ

— Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) December 28, 2022

he seems nice

this thread has been calling the next financial crisis as just around the corner for over a decade. one day it will be right

― flopson, Tuesday, October 11, 2022 1:47 PM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

it’s here

― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, October 11, 2022 3:05 PM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

two months pass...

Maybe we're a lobster who only slowly realizes he's in a shitbin.

yeah i mean we’re not doing so bad, exxonmobil and chevron will make an estimated 100bn in profit between them for instance

This ghoul

Larry Summers reclining on a tropical island and instructing the proles that "there's going to need to be increases in unemployment to contain inflation" ☠️pic.twitter.com/t1ONYePsUZ

— David Adler (@davidrkadler) January 6, 2023

everyone keeps saying this but it seems like inflation is easing and employment is still high, the big tech layoffs can be considered basically fake